One of the most common uses of confidence intervals is found in political polls and the news articles that reference them. These articles often use the point estimate (the proportion), and you can usually find the margin of error (half of the confidence interval) somewhere in the article as well. For example, consider the following scenario:Two separate polling organizations have conducted polls for two candidates who are running for state senate, Gail Schultz and Raymond McGregor. The polls were taken from the same population, in the same state, and on the same day.The survey from the first company, Pollster Analytics, shows Gail having 49% of the potential vote. It also shows Raymond having an estimated 47% of likely voters. Both results reflect a margin of error of 2 percentage points (usually depicted as ±2%).The survey from the second company, Polltastik, shows Raymond at 49% and Gail at 46%. This survey has a 3-percentage-point margin of error (±3%).In this Discussion, you will compare the outcomes of the surveys in the scenario and apply the concept of confidence intervals to make a prediction for the upcoming election, as well as discuss their implications.To prepare for this Discussion:Review this week’s Learning Resources.Refer to the scenario described above and consider who is ahead in the race and why.Review the Academic Writing Expectations for 2000/3000-Level Courses, provided in this week’s Learning Resources.By Day 3Post a 150- to 225-word (2- to 3-paragraph) explanation of how you applied confidence intervals to make predictions about the outcome of a political campaign. In your explanation, address the following:After reviewing both polls, what is now known about who might be ahead in the race? Explain who is ahead and why.Explain what the implications of these polls are for the campaign managers for Gail and Raymond.To support your response, be sure to reference at least one properly cited scholarly source.Refer to the Week 4 Discussion Rubric for specific grading elements and criteria. Your Instructor will use this grading rubric to assess your work.

Homework Assignment 9Due in week 10 and worth 30 pointsSuppose that there are two (2) candidates (i.e., Jones and Johns) in the upcoming presidential election. Sara notes that she has discussed the presidential election candidates with 15 friends, and 10 said that they are voting for candidate Jones. Sara is therefore convinced that candidate Jones will win the election because Jones gets more than 50% of votes.Answer the following questions in the space provided below:Based on what you now know about statistical inference, is Sara’s conclusion a logical conclusion? Why or why not?How many friend samples Sara should have in order to draw the conclusion with 95% confidence interval? Why?How would you explain your conclusion to Sara without using any statistical jargon? Why?Download the homework below, type your answers into the document and submit it using the link located above.