research paper draft revision

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timer Asked: Dec 10th, 2018
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Question description

Professor's comment:

These revisions are not sufficient enough for this to be considered a fully revised paper. The requirements for W credit require at least one revision. Many of my previous comments were not addressed, and I've noted them in this version. I didn't think the revisions I asked for were very substantial. To get W credit you will need to submit a fully revised version by the beginning of the final on Wednesday.

Writing requirement:

Students wishing to obtain writing course credit (W credit) should submit a 3000–3500 word paper (about 10–12 pages of double-spaced, 12-point Times New Roman text, with 1” margins on all sides). The paper must be revised in response to suggestions from the instructor before final submission.

The paper should include a title, introduction, detailed discussion of the subject matter, and a conclusion. Exemplary tables and figures are encouraged. Feel free to discuss your paper with us at any time.

A list of possible climate change related topics is listed below, if you have an interested in a topic not listed here, please check with the instructor before embarking on the research.

Evaluation:

You will be evaluated primarily on content, including structure, organization, and accuracy of information (about 75% of the grade). We also expect correct spelling, punctuation, grammar, and sentence construction (25% of paper grade).

References:

Use at least 3 references (unless you are writing a book commentary). At least 2 of your references must be textbooks, scholarly books, or articles from well-recognized journals or science-oriented magazines (e.g. Scientific American, Science, Nature). Beyond these two references, you may include webpages with complete URLs and date accessed. You must list all of your references, and any direct quotes must be indicated as such. Travel websites often contain climate information, but please don't assume they are accurate. Also travel websites should not be one of your 3 primary sources. If you copy any exact wording from one of your sources, you must cite the source in your text. If you fail to do so, you are plagiarizing.

Your bibliography should reflect all of the sources utilized for the paper. Use the format you are most comfortable with (MLA, APA, Vancouver System).

Running Head: CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE Climate Change and Agriculture Atm S 211 Dengyi Ma Nov 26, 2018 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 2 Abstract The global crisis we are currently experiencing such as low food production, climate change, and unpredictable weather patterns are all as a result of climate change. Global preparedness on the issue of climate change has been rare, and this is one of the reasons as to why we continue to grapple with food supplies shortage on one side and adverse climatic conditions on the other side. The focus of this research paper is to show how climate changes as a result of human activities and natural causes. This article also highlights interventions that can be adapted to end the menace of environmental degradation while at the same time offering insights on how to best address climate change by being able to identify the micro factors contributing to climate change (Lar, 2015). Agendas addressed by the paper include; the impact of climate change on agriculture, how climate change affects pests and how pests affect food security, the effect of agriculture on climate change, the intensity of the food security issue, and climatic challenges to achieving food security and how achieving food security could impact the climate. CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 3 Climate Change and Agriculture Introduction Climate change is referred to as the gradual or sudden change in the overall distribution of weather patterns across the world; these changes last for extended time frames. In most cases, climate change is all about the change in average climatic conditions or the varying of weather patterns over a more extended period. Several factors cause climatic changes among them being biotic processes, varying differences of the solar radiation received by the Earth, volcanic eruptions and at other times although rarely plate tectonics. Scientists and scholars have also identified some human activities as the leading causes of climate change. In this case, the artificial reasons lead to global warming. Understanding the future and past climates requires the use of observations and deeper theoretical models over a certain period. The bulk of data on earth climate is recorded while also more data continues to be availed by the use of instruments, and the overall trend is that in the past 20 years the climate has been changing more than any other time in the history of the earth. However, other factors could affect the climate (Nelson et al., 2014). In some cases, the emissions of greenhouse gases by human beings might also cause climate change over time, but the change will not be permanent until when the discharge occurs over a long period. There are several indicators of climate change which include: sea level change, Arctic sea ice decline, change of vegetation or animals and finally the change of cloud cover and precipitation over time. Internal forcing mechanisms and external parameters attribute to climate change. The internal mechanism includes ocean-atmosphere variability and orbital variations, and life throughout its significant role in carbon and water cycles. External factors leading to climate CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 4 change include human activities like deforestation, emissions, ozone layer depletion, and animal husbandry as ruminants produce methane that is harmful to the environment. The figure below shows the various contributors to low agricultural productivity. Figure 1: Multiple Impacts on Agricultural Yield [Source: Climate Change and Food Security, n.d.)] Climate change significantly affects agriculture. Currently, no single place is unaffected by climate change, and this has affected agriculture in such a major way. Climate change tends to alter agriculture in several significant ways ranging from changes in average temperatures, rainfall, changes in modalities such as approaches of pest and disease control, fluctuations in the sea level, modifications in the nutritional quality of most foods and the concentrations of CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 5 atmospheric gases in the environment. The effects of climate change on agriculture can be felt across the world although in different dimensions. Future projections suggest that crop production will go down in low attitude countries. The result of this is the decrease in food security for most vulnerable groups around the world. Agriculture, on the other hand, contributes directly to climate change through emissions and the clearing of forests land into agricultural land. According to the UNEP, agriculture, forestry-related activities and variations of land use contributed around 21 to 24% to annual global emissions as of mid-2011(Wiebe et al., 2015). Agriculture and climate change cannot be hence the two have a direct effect on food security, it is therefore important to develop wholesome policies that can help reduce the impact of negative climate change on agriculture and vice versa. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Despite advancements in technology and food production, the weather still plays an irreplaceable role in agricultural productivity. The improvement of crop varieties and irrigation technology cannot be successful if the overall weather is not favorable for agriculture (Lar, 2015). The effects of climate on agriculture are however felt locally as different zones have been affected in a different way altogether. Since different crops perform well in certain climatic conditions, it is essential for policymakers and agronomists to consider each area separately and find out the effects that the changes in climatic conditions might have on the production of agricultural related products (Wiebe et al., 2015). Globally, most nations still depend on agriculture and the commercialization of the same is proof enough that it provides essential foods and incomes and thus modalities need to be put into place to ensure that the effects of climate CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 6 change are checked. The impact of climate change are serious on regional food production; for example, it is projected that by the year 2030, countries in the Southern Africa region might lose close to 32% of their staple food. In South Asia, countries like Sri Lanka continue to experience low production of rice, and this could hit to levels of 13% by 2022. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization, the developing nations will be significantly affected by the climatic changes, water availability and attacks by pests. In Africa alone, the productivity of significant rain-fed crops has drastically gone down over the years (Wiebe et al., 2015). In the long run, the change of climatic conditions could affect agriculture in several significant ways. Some of the ways include the quality and quantity of products, change in agricultural practices, the environmental effects leading to a reduction of crop diversity, soil erosion, loss of rural space and adaptation as the organism are going to become less and less competitive. Agricultural output and production are directly and indirectly related to many factors. In one way or another, it has proved that agriculture and climatic change are so much interconnected as agriculture itself is a product of the interplay of many factors and parameters. Impact of Agriculture on Climate Change One of the major contributors to gas emissions and the causative agent of climate change is believed to be agriculture. Agriculture apart from being a direct contributor to greenhouse gas emissions is a significant land user across the world. According to a recently concluded research by the International Panel on Climate Change, the continuous usage of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land use are believed to be the main causes of greenhouse gases emissions over the last 220 years (Lar, 2015). Land use through agriculture contributes to greenhouse gases through the carbon dioxide released as a result of deforestation, nitrous oxides released from the applications CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 7 of fertilizers, and methane gas which is released from the cultivation of rice and livestock. Essentially, all carbon dioxide emissions are tied to the usage of land whereas the rest of the agricultural practices above lead to more than 50% of all methane emissions (Chen et al., 2016). Deforestation itself has primarily contributed to climate change through reduced carbon uptake and imbalance of gases in the atmosphere. The keeping of livestock and related activities have also significantly contributed to unproportioned usage of land like growing crops for cattle and thus reducing production capacity for food crops. Livestock production has a significant role to play in the debate on climate change as its production occupies more than 65% of all agricultural land and in 2010 alone fermentation of livestock waste accounted for close to 45% of the total greenhouse gas emissions (Chen et al., 2016). Figure 2: Graph SHowing Food Production in Usual and Unusual Climate patterns [Climate Change and Food Security, n.d.).] CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 8 Climate Change and Pests Climate change by human activities is also a major contributing factor on matters of low food production and food security. It is believed that global warming has the potential to increase or reduce the populations of pests which could eventually harm or destroy yields of staple foods like rice, wheat, and corn. According to the Center for Insect Study, warmer temperatures have the power of increasing the number of breeding cycles of insects and their metabolic rates as well. This could lead to an increase in the populations, and the far-reaching effects are the destruction of agricultural produce (Lar, 2015). Regions with higher altitudes and tropical climates are in this case more likely to be considerably affected by changes in insect populations. Combating the ever-expanding pest populations is essential as it is the only way to guarantee better outputs when the climatic conditions are favorable. The usage of pesticides although helpful has proved to be ineffective in the long run and even reduces productivity by a wide range — the use of solutions that will not adversely affect the environment and the climate as well should be considered by practitioners. Proponents of climatic control have proposed the use of biological control agents. Although this has proved to be working, it requires additional land space, and its application cost is slightly higher as compared to the use of pesticides. Climate Change and Plant Diseases on Agriculture Plants diseases also lead to agricultural produce decline. According to research, climate change is one of the factors that may alter the developmental stages of crop affecting pathogens. Climate change itself could alter the geographical distribution of hosts and pathogens thus leading to substantial crop losses. The nature of most plant diseases could even affect the CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 9 survival of most crops or in the future also affect the crops to be produced in such an area. The same way that human diseases are affected by climatic conditions of an area crop disease can thrive or survive in particular regions (Nelson et al., 2014). Altering such climatic conditions might reduce the effect of the diseases on the crop but at the same time lower the output in a significant way. It is therefore only prudent to scientists to find strong crops or modified crops that can fight the diseases instead of changing the climate of the region. The development of breeds that are resistant to disease-causing pathogens has been seen as a solution, but this is only in the short run as the pathogens become stronger and weaken the crops. Food security is poised to reduce in the next 5 to 8 years if the right interventions are not put into place. According to the University of Illinois, close to 70 countries in Asia and Africa, are at the risk of having their agricultural output going down due to the effects of diseases on crops (Nelson et al., 2014). Climatic Changes, Agricultural Surfaces and Food Security Continuous climatic changes around the world have a possibility of increasing the amount of agricultural land in high altitudes regions due to the reduction of the sizes of frozen land. Although the increase in temperatures might lead to an increase in the arable land, there is a possibility of declining productivity and increased cases of drought. The rising of sea levels by the year 2090 might lead to a decrease in the size of agricultural land, especially in the South East Asian regions. Food productivity in countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and India might continue to have lower production of the rice crop by the year 2030 (Lar, 2005). CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 10 Food Security The lack of enough food across the globe is indirectly related to climate change although other factors like poor farming techniques and subsistence farming have a role to play in the issue of food security (Nelson et al., 2014). The most significant force is the alterations of climatic conditions by either natural causes or human activities and if this is not addressed the world might suffer. The United Nations through the Food and Agriculture Organization has described the situation of food security to be a worrying trend especially based on the effects of climate change. Projections in some regions have also suggested a decrease in hunger is believed to be as a result of economic development and not increased production (Wiebe et al., 2015). By the year 2030, it is also projected that sub-Saharan Africa will be most food insecure when compared to Asia. The most significant factor behind the shift is increased desertification, especially in the sub-Saharan region. In South America droughts, the El Nino, and the Oscillation Cycle has been attributed to a decline in the global production of wheat and grain. Although food security is not purely as a result of climatic changes, it is believed that climate change is the most direct contributing factor towards food insecurity. In one case, Africa's location makes it vulnerable to climate change, and food insecurity as most of its agriculture is rain fed. Livestock production is also believed to decrease in countries like Bangladesh and Botswana as a result of diseases, heat stress and scarcity of pastures (Chen et al., 2016). Since food security includes the availability of food, its accessibility, and on whether individuals can afford it, it is this important to make sure that food is first made available, accessible and affordable. In as much as climatic conditions have a role to play in the availability of food other factors that could affect food availability are: failed agriculture regulations and lack of proper planning. CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 11 Food Insecurity Hotspots Figure 3: Food Insecurity Hotspots [Source: Climate Change and Food Security, n.d).] Challenges to Achieving Food Security Several factors are lead to food insecurity. The lack of preparedness of countries and the unavailability of measures to promote the production of enough food are among the factors that are not birthed from the climate. As earlier put, climate change, agriculture, and food security are in a way related, and thus the majority of the contributing factors are all associated with climate change either directly or indirectly. The first challenge is the global water crisis that has been heightened in the recent years by desertification, deforestation and the rise of temperatures (Chen et al., 2016). In the current scenario, most countries in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience poor agricultural production especially in areas with irrigated lands. This on itself emphasizes the need for stress on food security. In a bid to overcome the challenges caused by the scarcity of water countries hit hard have started resulting in over-pumping and thus escalating the problem CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 12 of climate change. Extreme land degradation over the years which is caused by intensive and irresponsible farming, which leads to climate change which ultimately affects rain-fed agriculture (Chen, et al., 2016). Risks to Food Security The agenda on food security is not complete without showing how intense climatic changes have reduced productivity. Despite this, other factors like increased population growth lead to overuse of available resources and degradation of the environment. This growing pressure on the environment and energy resources can also be blamed on the menace of climate change and food production (Chen et al., 2016). Overdependence on fossil fuels and irrigation also plays a role in the escalation of the problem. Homogeneity in the global food supply will also affect how much food can be produced. Most factors that could lead to a food insecure world are all associated with land use and less of catastrophic risks. Figure 4: Food Security [Climate Change and Food Security. (n.d.).] CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 13 Impacts The effects of climate change over the years have been significant. Crop phenology provides substantial evidence on responses to climate change. Over the past years cases of droughts have been occurring more frequently than in the past, and if interventions and measures are not put into place, the droughts are expected to increase (Nelson et al., 2014). The impacts of droughts have been made more severe and intense by the continuous demand for water, growing population, urban expansion, and other adverse activities by human beings. Droughts which is a result climate change have in turn resulted to crop failure and the loss of land for grazing. On the contrary and against the odds, most countries that are considered to have hostile climatic conditions have had an increasingly thriving agricultural sector. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, Nigeria continues to be the world's largest producer of yams despite having high temperatures of up to 31° C (Chen, et al., 2016). Brazil and India are also considered the world's leading producers of sugarcane despite the high temperatures. In Europe and other parts of the world, the opposite is exact as heat waves have caused much lower yields compared to other periods. Due to this, it is estimated that the prices of food are going to increase in the coming months. The United States National Research Council predicts that the majority of food crops produced in 2018 could see a reduction in the levels of minerals and this is as a result of the climatic conditions across the globe (Nelson, et al., 2014). CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 14 Conclusion It is evident that the effects of agriculture on land and the atmosphere have been a substantial contributing factor leading to climate change around the world. On the other hand, agriculture cannot flourish without the impact of climate change. The interrelationship of agriculture, food security, and climate change is enough proof that interventions need to be put into place to ensure that agriculture does not continue to suppress the climate while also hoping that endorsing measures to improve the parameters on climate will lead to enhanced agricultural productivity over the years. Countries and agencies are required to come together to develop solutions to some of the major controversial issues surrounding global warming and climate change. In my opinion, I believe that mass sensitization and promoting comprehensive education on responsible use and interaction of the environment is one crucial factor that could change the status of climate change. The continuous interaction of agriculture and climate change continues to impact the future of food production significantly in Africa and the world in general. According to the World Health Organization, combating climate change and global warming is not only going to benefit the government by being able to grow more food, but it is also good to help agencies and health practitioners combat more and more diseases (Lar, R, 2015). Based on my view, the act of slowly turning the world into a capitalist system where individuals are pushed by their appetite to accumulate wealth is directly linked with the climate change and global warming to a large scale. The United Nations through the support of the nations should start instituting measures to curb exploitation of the environment and also provide enough resources for researchers to find the most beneficial way that humans can interact with the environment to ensure minimal harm is caused. As the core focus narrows down into agriculture, I believe that it is high time research CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 15 agencies find out ways that we can increase production without hurting the environment and achieve food security for all. The achievements of global goals in which life on land, life below water, zero hunger, responsible consumption and production, care for the environment, are all featured heavily relies on the precise coordination and partnerships of all stakeholders. The effects of climate change have been felt and are biting and so has the paradigm shifted in how nations across the world are focusing on the environment with much concern. Lastly, I firmly believe that human beings have the power to achieve anything as long as they are committed to it. Food security, environment preservation and prevention of climate change remains to be key to us, leaving us with no option but to sort it out for our own benefit and the benefit of the future generation. CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 16 References Chen, S., Chen, X., & Xu, J. (2016). Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 76, 105-124. Lal, R. (2015). Climate change and agriculture. In Climate Change (Second Edition) (pp. 465489). Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., & Kyle, P. (2014). Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3274-3279. Nelson, G. C., Van Der Mensbrugghe, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Calvin, K., Hasegawa, T., & von Lampe, M. (2014). Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree? Agricultural Economics, 45(1), 85-101. Wiebe, K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Biewald, A., & Müller, C. (2015). Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 10(8), 085010. Climate Change and Food Security. (n.d.). Retrieved November 27, 2018, from http://www.climatechange-foodsecurity.org/science.html
ATM S 211 Writing Credit Requirements and Guidelines Paper Requirements Students wishing to obtain writing course credit (W credit) should submit a 3000–3500 word paper (about 10–12 pages of double-spaced, 12-point Times New Roman text, with 1” margins on all sides). The paper must be revised in response to suggestions from the instructor before final submission. The paper should include a title, introduction, detailed discussion of the subject matter, and a conclusion. Exemplary tables and figures are encouraged. Feel free to discuss your paper with us at any time. A list of possible climate change related topics is listed below, if you have an interested in a topic not listed here, please check with the instructor before embarking on the research. Evaluation: You will be evaluated primarily on content, including structure, organization, and accuracy of information (about 75% of the grade). We also expect correct spelling, punctuation, grammar, and sentence construction (25% of paper grade). References: Use at least 3 references (unless you are writing a book commentary). At least 2 of your references must be textbooks, scholarly books, or articles from well-recognized journals or science-oriented magazines (e.g. Scientific American, Science, Nature). Beyond these two references, you may include webpages with complete URLs and date accessed. You must list all of your references, and any direct quotes must be indicated as such. Travel websites often contain climate information, but please don't assume they are accurate. Also travel websites should not be one of your 3 primary sources. If you copy any exact wording from one of your sources, you must cite the source in your text. If you fail to do so, you are plagiarizing. Please see information on plagiarism here: https://depts.washington.edu/pswrite/plag.html Your bibliography should reflect all of the sources utilized for the paper. Use the format you are most comfortable with (MLA, APA, Vancouver System). Due date(s): First drafts are due Monday, November 26, 2018 OR BEFORE! All final drafts are due by Thursday, December 6, 2018 Late “W” papers will only be accepted with at least 3 days advanced OK from the instructor. Possible paper topics: The example topics listed below are fairly broad. Your paper should focus on a more specific aspect of a topic listed below. Other topics are also acceptable. Whether you choose from the list below or come up with your own, you should talk with the professor or TA before you get started on your research to make sure both the topic and the scope of the paper are suitable for this assignment. 1 2 3 # Category Climate of the past Climate of the past Climate of the past 4 Climate of the past 5 Climate of the present 6 7 8 9 10 11 Climate of the present Climate of the present Climate of the present Climate of the present Climate of the present Climate of the present 12 13 14 15 16 Climate of the future Climate of the future Climate of the future Climate of the future Climate of the future Broad topic Climate change an human civilization (evolution, migration, demise) Impact of climate change on regional or global fisheries Describe the climate of Snowball Earth, biology and its survival, during Snowball Earth Describe the Eocene climate when CO2 was thought to be higher than today Monsoons – compare/contrast, changes over time, role in energy balance, etc Describe the economic impacts of El Niño patterns and possible shifts Relationships between hurricanes and global warming Ocean acidification Desertification: natural and human impacts The Gaia theory Describe the climate of a country and how climate influences its business, politics, agriculture, etc Expected changes to terrestrial ecosystems with global warming How climate change will affect agriculture and thus food security Impact of global climate change on water resources of a region Renewable energy options for reducing GHG emissions Technological solutions (geoengineering) to global warming

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Thanks, good work

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