Econometrics empirical study paper

Anonymous
timer Asked: Dec 12th, 2018
account_balance_wallet $20

Question description

I am doing a paper with a group and I am covering the introduction part. I attached a copy of the non completed paper , and I need complete the introduction only. the rest of the paper gives you an Idea about the project paper.

Team Delta What Drives Gold Returns? – An empirical approach ____________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction Does the real economy possess predictive power for Gold returns? While a sizeable literature exists on this question, the evidence is mixed and continues to draw debate. In this paper, we examine the issue of Gold return predictability over a range of time horizons. A set of macro-economic, fundamental, and technical indicators is selected for this purpose and based on a standard predictive regression framework; all forecasts are generated by regressing the total returns of Gold on a constant and a lag of the independent variables. 2. Literature Review "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum." 3. Hypothesis "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum." 1 Team Delta 4. Data Description The data used came from three different sources: Bloomberg Terminals, Ycharts, and Robert Shiller. From these sources, Team Delta accumulate sixty-six variables, all of which were lagged one day. Each variable was collected in order to predict the daily relative price difference of Gold from four different time periods: 1994-1999, 2000-2005, 2006-2011, and 2012-2017. Since our independent Y variable is relative difference from the previous day, Team Delta decided it would be best to take the relative difference for every X variable, if the data allowed. As previously stated, our Y variable is the relative difference for daily Gold prices, which indicates our data set is a Time Series one. Since our observations are daily and we have 4, 5 year time periods, this means each time period has 1565 observations. An important point, when the data was cleaned and merged Vlookup in excel was used to match dates. If there was no data for a specific date, then the previous value was chosen. This is especially apparent for any data that is not daily. Certain data, mostly data from Bloomberg, contain NA values. These values were transformed to a value of “-9999” in order to maintain numerical integral in R. Before this procedure was done, Team Delta double checked the data to ensure “-9999” did not previously exist, it did not. When the data was read in and split into 4 different time periods, further cleaning ensued. For each time period, X variables that contained NA’s for more than 20% of the data were removed. This would end up helping with linear dependency. Going forward, Team Delta concluded weekly or monthly data would be preferred over daily, mostly because economic data is 2 Team Delta reported monthly or quarterly. Talk about the descriptive statistics. Include data dictionary for each of these variables. Should take about 4 sentences or so. 5. Econometric Model You should write out the basic econometric specification first and explain each of the variables and the parameters of interest. Why is this the correct specification for the question you wish to address? Was it derived from theory and has it been used in previous empirical work? Why are certain variables included and others not? Discuss whether you are using basic OLS, IV, etc. and why this is appropriate. You should be very clear about where identification is coming from and what assumptions you need to make in order to interpret the parameters as you wish to ECON452 Econometrics 2 interpret them (e.g. discussing exclusion restrictions if you wish to interpret certain parameters as causal). After discussing the basic specification, write out any elaborations or additional tests you will perform and why. 6. Results Here are some basic things to guide you in presenting your results: 3 Team Delta 1) You should present results in a way that develops your argument step-by-step. For example, you may want to present your main results first, then break those results down by subgroups and then perform robustness checks. 2) Any tables with parameter estimates should clearly state which dependent variable you are using, which control variables are included and which specification you are testing. Just discuss the most interesting and important estimates in your discussion of the table. Make sure you report standard errors with your estimates. Just look at some economics journals for a good table format. 3) Interpret the magnitude of your parameter estimates in an economically meaningful way. For example: “we find that b=0.003, so that increasing X by one unit increases y by 0.003. The implied elasticity is...”. This is particularly important if you are not estimating a simple OLS regression. And even with OLS it is useful, especially when the magnitudes of the variables are not immediately apparent, for example when x is in logs. 4) Make sure you give your parameters the smell test. Are they a reasonable sign and magnitude? 5) Graphs are worth a thousand words. Think about the most illustrative way of presenting the results in a graph…this is a very convincing way to show your reader that you have found something real. 6) Discuss whether the parameter estimates are statistically significant. If you don’t get significance, why? Do you have enough data? Is your test strong enough to detect effects below a certain magnitude (power tests are great for this sort of thing)? Are the results still suggestive even if they are not estimated precisely? 7) Compare your results to what others have found or to your out-of-sample test. You don’t need to worry if you don’t find anything significant as long as your methods are sound and you have interpreted the results well. Discuss why your results may differ from past research. 4 Team Delta 5 Team Delta . 7. Conclusion "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum." 6

Tutor Answer

EinsteintheProf
School: UT Austin

Hello, review the attached document and contact me in case you need any changes. Otherwise, good luck in your study and if you need any further help in your assignments, please let me know. Always invite me to answer your questions.

Running head: ECONOMETRICS

1
Econometrics
Institution Affiliation
Instructor’s Name
Student’s Name
Course Code
Date

ECONOMETRICS

2
Econometrics
Introduction

Gold remains to be one of the valuable commodities in the markets. It has been used for
transaction purposes for thousands of years. Its values continue to appreciate in the market
attracting investor in the economy to hold wealth in the form of gold. People prefer to trade with
it as it allows individuals to make a proper investment decision without worrying about the risk
that are involved in ...

flag Report DMCA
Review

Anonymous
Super fast turn around time. Very impressed and will use Studypool again if I need a quick job. Communication was a bit tough but not unbearable.

Similar Questions
Hot Questions
Related Tags

Brown University





1271 Tutors

California Institute of Technology




2131 Tutors

Carnegie Mellon University




982 Tutors

Columbia University





1256 Tutors

Dartmouth University





2113 Tutors

Emory University





2279 Tutors

Harvard University





599 Tutors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology



2319 Tutors

New York University





1645 Tutors

Notre Dam University





1911 Tutors

Oklahoma University





2122 Tutors

Pennsylvania State University





932 Tutors

Princeton University





1211 Tutors

Stanford University





983 Tutors

University of California





1282 Tutors

Oxford University





123 Tutors

Yale University





2325 Tutors