Presentation on Game Theory Applications

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timer Asked: Dec 21st, 2018
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Question description

Competency

This competency will allow you to demonstrate your ability and skill in applying game theory to real world scenarios.

Instructions

After working for 18 months in your analyst position at G&B Consulting, you are now being considered for a project manager position that would put you in charge of several team members. As part of the interview process, you have been asked to make a presentation to highlight what you think are the most compelling reasons you should get the position.

You are to put together a PowerPoint presentation that explains all of the key components that you feel will factor into why you should get the position.

To complete this assignment, you must first download the word document. Use the questions on the worksheet as your guide for the contents of your presentation.

Your step-by-step breakdown of the problems, including explanations and all work shown, should be present within the PowerPoint you create. If you use Excel for any of your calculations that file must also be included in the drop box. Do not submit the Word document with instructions.

Deliverable 07 – Worksheet Part 1 The first item you want to highlight is your customer satisfaction record. Over the past 18 months of employment you have worked with 25 clients, and according to the customer satisfaction surveys all clients are asked to take after their contract is completed, 22 of them rated you with the highest level of satisfaction. Use this information to find the best predicted probability of having a new client give the highest level of satisfaction. However, having a single satisfied customer is not enough. It is very important to G & B Consulting that they maintain high ethical standards and continue to receive the highest rating from the Better Business Bureau consistently. In order to maintain this rating, the company must maintain at least 85% or higher of customers giving you high customer satisfaction ratings. Internal projections predict that G&B Consulting will serve 60 clients over the next year. If you become the project manager and use your prior record as an indicator, find the probability that 85% or more of new clients will give the highest level of customer satisfaction rating. Show all calculations and formulas used. If you use Excel for your calculations include that along with your submission. Use this information to make a convincing argument that you are a good choice for the position. Slide 1 • • Calculate the probability of getting a satisfied client based off of your prior work history at G& B Consulting. Show all work. Explain how you found your solution. Slide 2 • • Using your prior work history, calculate the probability of getting at least 85% of clients giving you high customer satisfaction ratings. Explain how you found your solution. Slide 3 • Interpret your results from slide 2 and use them to make an argument on why you would be good for the position. Part 2 The other item you wish to highlight comes from some work done for a local manufacturer. They believed that a competitor was illegally using one of their patents in their own manufacturing process and were considering litigation. This competitor's product were directly cutting into the manufacturer's profit, so they wanted to prevent the competitor's product from being made and recoup those lost profits. Of course, the litigation process is long and costly, and the outcome is not guaranteed and would likely result in a countersuit brought by the competitor. Before continuing with costly legal counsel, the manufacturer hired G&B Consulting to help them determine their best strategy. This was potentially a very lucrative contract, and a high profile one too since the manufacturer is one of the biggest employers in the area. Therefore, several analysts at G&B Consulting, including you, were asked to tackle the problem independently to help ensure the best possible results. Before compiling a final report to give to the manufacturer, the results were presented to the project lead: The first Manufacturer Competitor Sue Don’t Sue Sue (5, -5) (20, -20) Don’t Sue (-15, 15) (-10, 10) solution brought up was given by one of your coworkers. Using the manufacturer's projections of profits solely, he was able to create the following payoff matrix where each entry is in millions of dollars annually: This coworker concluded that the manufacturer should always do the opposite of the competitor chooses making this a strictly competitive game. Slide 4 • • Using the payoff matrix shown above, determine if the manufacturer has a dominant strategy. Show and explain all steps. Using the payoff matrix shown above, determine if the competitor has a dominant strategy. Show and explain all steps. Slide 5 • • Find all Nash equilibrium points. Show and explain all steps. Identify the optimum strategy of the game. Slide 6 • Do your results match those of your coworkers? Explain why you agree or disagree Part 3 Competitor Manufacturer The Sue Don’t Sue Sue (5, -5) (20, 10) Don’t Sue (10, 20) (15, 15) second solution was brought by a different coworker. She also created a payoff matrix for the scenario but did some independent research to estimate the competitor's profits in each outcome independent of the manufacturer's profits and came up with the following payoff matrix, again, the values represent millions of dollars in annual profits. This coworker concludes that under these circumstances, the manufacturer should sue 50% of the time and not sue the other 50% of the time, and they should expect their competitor to do the same. Slide 7 • Use the mixed strategy algorithm to find the optimum strategy for the manufacturer. Show all of your steps. Slide 8 • Use the mixed strategy algorithm to find the optimum strategy for the competitor. Show all of your steps. Slide 9 • Do your results match those of your coworker’s? Explain why you agree or disagree. Part 4 You present your own solution that is based on a non-simultaneous game where the manufacturer first has to decide whether or not they wish to pursue litigation. If they do so choose, then their competitor will also have to decide if the wish to file a counter-suit. You utilized the same payoff matrix that the second coworker provided that contains information about both companies' projected profits Slide 10 • • Create the game tree for this scenario, exclude any non-credible threats. Explain how you identified the non-credible threat. Slide 10 • Perform the first step of backwards induction. Shown and explain your work. Slide 11 • Perform the second step of backwards induction. Show and explain all your work. Slide 12 • Identify the optimum strategy for the game.

Tutor Answer

JeffDaniels
School: Cornell University

Just in case of anything let me know.
check_circle JeffDaniels marked this question as complete.

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Date

Over the Past 18
Months of
Employment
➢ 25 Clients
➢ 22 out of 25 clients

surveyed scored
me with the
highest level of
satisfaction

Why Would I Make a Great Project
Manager?
➢ The probability of getting a satisfied
client based off of my prior work
history at G& B Consulting is 88%.
22
𝑃 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑠𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑟 =
25
22
= 0.88 (88%)
25

Customer Satisfaction Record

85 % satisfaction
❖ Based on my previous customer satisfaction

❖ For higher ratings from Better Business Bureau ,G &

B Consulting requires a maintenance of high
ethical.
❖ Maintaining customer satisfaction rating of 85%

and above.
❖ Maintaining this high rating even after serving

next 60 clients.

record, there is a probability of 88% that I
would maintain a consistent overall customer
satisfaction record of 85% or higher:

𝑃 = .8224
𝑥 = 60
𝑛 = 51 (60 x .85 = 51)
Calculation
1 − 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 51 − 1 , 60, .88, 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸
1 − 𝐵𝐼𝑁𝑂𝑀. 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 50, 60, .88, 𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸
= .8224 (82.24%)

 The probability of getting at least

85% of clients giving me high
customer satisfaction ratings is
82.24%
 This is...

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Anonymous
10/10 would recommend. Responsive and helpful.

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