Project management discussion

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How and when do you use different time estimation techniques?

Compare and contrast analogous estimation and expert judgment. When would you use each? Also outline how the critical path is determined after estimation. For what is the critical path used?

Nov 17th, 2017

Thank you for the opportunity to help you with your question! the solution is as such:

Estimating the effort, time, and resources needed to complete project activities is one of the most challenging tasks that project managers must face. This is because of the inherent uncertainty associated with many activities.
Projects are unique. That is one of the differences between projects and processes. This uniqueness often creates uncertainty. Uncertainty because the activity is unique to the project, or the activity is being accomplished by a resource that is not a practiced expert, or the interaction of this activity with other project activities is unique in this project. All of these can create problems when estimating effort, time or resources.

Uncertainty in one aspect of an estimate leads to uncertainty on the other aspects. If the effort needed to complete the scope is uncertain - for instance the number of hours of work needed to complete an analysis - the time and resources needed will be uncertain. If the timing of when an activity starts or ends is uncertain, the resource availability and amount of effort required may change. If the resource assigned to an activity is uncertain, the number of hours required to complete the activity and the timing of the availability of the resource will be uncertain.

However, the good news is that not all project activities are uncertain. In many cases, the activity is one that is well defined and the organization routinely accomplishes it. When possible a project team is formed so that an expert is doing the work and the availability of the expert is predictable. In those cases an accurate estimate can be quickly generated

Analogous Estimating Analogous Estimating is one of the most common forms of estimating project activities. This technique uses the experience from previous projects and extrapolates that onto the current project. This technique is appropriate for those cases where the type of work is similar and the resources doing the work are the same between projects. Its advantage is that it is quick and, when the conditions are appropriate, it is usually fairly accurate. The disadvantage is that the organization must have similar projects for comparison.

Expert Judgment Estimating Expert Judgment estimating is easy to do - provided you have an expert on the project. This technique looks to the expert to create an estimate based upon their understanding of the project requirements. Many, if not most, project estimates are created in this fashion. The advantage of this is that it is quick and if the expert is knowledgeable, it is often the most accurate estimate for uncertain activities. The disadvantages are that you may not have an expert available and even if you do, the expert often can provide no solid rationale for their estimate beyond, "That's what I think it will take to do this."

Critical path is the sequential activities from start to the end of a project. Although many projects have only one critical path, some projects may have more than one critical paths depending on the flow logic used in the project.

If there is a delay in any of the activities under the critical path, there will be a delay of the project deliverables.

Most of the times, if such delay is occurred, project acceleration or re-sequencing is done in order to achieve the deadlines.

Critical path method is based on mathematical calculations and it is used for scheduling project activities. This method was first introduced in 1950s as a joint venture between Remington Rand Corporation and DuPont Corporation.

The initial critical path method was used for managing plant maintenance projects. Although the original method was developed for construction work, this method can be used for any project where there are interdependent activities.

In the critical path method, the critical activities of a program or a project are identified. These are the activities that have a direct impact on the completion date of the project.

Key Steps in Critical Path Method

Let's have a look at how critical path method is used in practice. The process of using critical path method in project planning phase has six steps.

Step 1: Activity specification

You can use the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to identify the activities involved in the project. This is the main input for the critical path method.

In activity specification, only the higher-level activities are selected for critical path method.

When detailed activities are used, the critical path method may become too complex to manage and maintain.

Step 2: Activity sequence establishment

In this step, the correct activity sequence is established. For that, you need to ask three questions for each task of your list.

  • Which tasks should take place before this task happens.

  • Which tasks should be completed at the same time as this task.

  • Which tasks should happen immediately after this task.

Step 3: Network diagram

Once the activity sequence is correctly identified, the network diagram can be drawn (refer to the sample diagram above).

Although the early diagrams were drawn on paper, there are a number of computer softwares, such as Primavera, for this purpose nowadays.

Step 4: Estimates for each activity

This could be a direct input from the WBS based estimation sheet. Most of the companies use 3-point estimation method or COCOMO based (function points based) estimation methods for tasks estimation.

You can use such estimation information for this step of the process.

Step 5: Identification of the critical path

For this, you need to determine four parameters of each activity of the network.

  • Earliest start time (ES) - The earliest time an activity can start once the previous dependent activities are over.

  • Earliest finish time (EF) - ES + activity duration.

  • Latest finish time (LF) - The latest time an activity can finish without delaying the project.

  • Latest start time (LS) - LF - activity duration.

The float time for an activity is the time between the earliest (ES) and the latest (LS) start time or between the earliest (EF) and latest (LF) finish times.

During the float time, an activity can be delayed without delaying the project finish date.

The critical path is the longest path of the network diagram. The activities in the critical path have an effect on the deadline of the project. If an activity of this path is delayed, the project will be delayed.

In case if the project management needs to accelerate the project, the times for critical path activities should be reduced.

Step 6: Critical path diagram to show project progresses

Critical path diagram is a live artefact. Therefore, this diagram should be updated with actual values once the task is completed.

This gives more realistic figure for the deadline and the project management can know whether they are on track regarding the deliverables.

Advantages of Critical Path Method:

Following are advantages of critical path methods:

  • Offers a visual representation of the project activities.

  • Presents the time to complete the tasks and the overall project.

  • Tracking of critical activities

Critical path identification is required for any project-planning phase. This gives the project management the correct completion date of the overall project and the flexibility to float activities.

A critical path diagram should be constantly updated with actual information when the project progresses in order to refine the activity length/project duration predictions.

Please let me know if you need any clarification. I'm always happy to answer your questions.awaiting a positive feedback. It was lovely helping you. Looking forward to help you again. A positive feedback awaited thank you.
Jun 29th, 2015

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