MTH 156 Critical Thinking Mod 3 Probabilities

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Question Description

Option 2: Probabilities of Graduation and Publication

In the following study, three different universities have been tracking a select group of professors over the course of their employment at that university to determine the number of students who are in a particular professor’s classes, how many of those students have graduated, and if any of them have had their work published. In the attached Excel file, Probabilities, are the totals for each of the professors at the three different universities that participated in the study.

The purpose of this study is to find the probabilities of graduation and publication for the students in the different professors’ courses. While a causal relationship may not be found between a professor and student graduation or publication, we need to rank the professors based on the different probabilities found with the data sets as described below.

Prepare a report (see below) with your ranking of the professors based on the probabilities and conditional probabilities as well as the analysis of each university. Include the following seven (7) items in table format which is provided in the Probabilities file to support your ranking.

Note: Be sure to use five (5) decimal places for your probabilities in the table, as some of them will be quite small. Do not convert to percentages as we are interested in probabilities only here.

  1. The overall probability of students graduating at each of the three universities.
  2. The overall probability of students having a publication at each of the three universities.
  3. The overall probability of students having a publication, given that they graduated at each of the three universities.
  4. The probability of a student graduating for each professor.
  5. The probability of a student having a publication for each professor.
  6. The probability of a student having a publication given that they graduated for each professor.
  7. Rank the professors within each university for each of the probabilities in 4–6. Then find the sum of the ranks and determine an overall ranking for each professor.

Be sure to critically analyze the above calculations in your body paragraphs, explaining how you found each type of probability and then the results you obtained. Be sure to also explain your criteria for ranking in steps 4–7, and defend why you chose that ranking method—as your way might not be the typical method.

Paper Requirements
Write a report that uses the Written Assignment Requirements under the heading Expectations for CSU-Global Written Assignments found in the CSU-Global Guide to Writing and APA (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.. Items that should be included, but are not limited Items that should be included, at a minimum, are a title page, an introduction, a body which answers the questions posed in the problem, and a conclusion paragraph that addresses your findings and what you have determined from the data and your analysis. As with all written assignments, you should have in-text citations and a reference page. Please include any tables of calculations, calculated values, and graphs associated with this problem in the body of your assignment response.

Note: You must submit your Excel file with your report. This will aid in grading with partial credit if errors are found in the report.

University/College Professor/Instructor J.W. Blake WWCC K.R. Cunningham R.H. Doughty L.M. Edwards W.H. Greiner I.D. Jackson O.P. Lawson G.F. Nelson A.F. Paul D.K. Raulson T.R. South E.A. Thomas C.F. Viney F.E. Yousef Totals Number Students Taught Graduated Publications 1956 1545 711 1102 981 373 1911 1682 606 419 402 201 2133 2133 768 646 581 203 864 812 219 1049 797 279 1039 1039 509 889 747 187 2890 2254 1082 2923 2777 861 1984 1567 642 2704 2352 847 EWCC A.D. Blaise I.A. Frank S.D. Gundel P.O. Hogan W.M. Kraft L.I. Luebbers J.H. Nye J.A. O'Dell R.W. Pauly K.G. Ross D.S. Smith J.P. Trost M.M. Wall Totals 247 2613 1813 1052 1270 2248 2330 286 751 153 126 2510 2629 188 2247 1523 926 1041 1866 1841 277 593 122 105 2159 2103 83 629 655 389 396 653 865 105 208 54 40 1015 904 NWCC D.H. Allen T.G. Black M.A. Carter M.P. Drake J.K. Elmsworth P.T. Grey C.R. Heines D.R. Jones B.M. Keith G.H. Matheson P.R. Neighbors S.T. Orion A.P. Tracey 902 2842 2660 2595 2480 751 1489 605 165 2588 2991 1438 2542 731 2671 2234 2206 2381 646 1266 496 153 1941 2572 1337 2262 183 1336 603 949 667 207 582 164 47 679 900 508 927 Totals P(Graduated) Rank by P(G) P(Publications) Rank by P(P) P(P|G) Rank by P(P|G) Sum of Ranks Overall Rank

Tutor Answer

School: Cornell University



Probability Calculations
Student’s Name
Institution of Affiliation

Probability Calculations
The probabilities are used to assess the efficiency of professors in three different
universities by estimating the number of students enrolled in different classes and how many
have enrolled. The total number of students are listed in reference whether they are enrolled in
school or graduated and whether they have made any publications. The probability of the
students graduating from each of the university is given by the probability of the students
belonging to a specific professor divided by the total number of students taught by all the
lecturers in the specific university. The Professors who have a high admission and a high number
of graduating students are ranked the best.
The probability of a student having a publication from the three universities is calculated
by dividing the number of students who have made publications divided by the total number of
students under different professors who have made publications. The profe...

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