Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Analysis

timer Asked: Feb 5th, 2019
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Question Description

I have attached the assignment. You should read the case then answer the question with 2-8 bullet points starting with the strongest evidence to the weakest. You should only use the case as a reference don't use outside sources. Please see the sample that I attached and follow the same language and format. it should be about 800 word. I attached some information that could help you. The case is " Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko"



The poisoning of Karinna Moskalenko

Information for brief:

Case 1 “Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?” found on Brightspace


Learn by doing structured analysis of information and writing a bottom-line

assessment of what that information tells you. You must employ key assumptions checks and

quality of information checks in preparing your brief. You must convincingly answer the key

intelligence questions using analytic reasoning and evidence.

Key Intelligence Questions:

Who most likely poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Why? Why does

it matter to the shape of Russian politics?


US Senate

Unformatted Attachment Preview

Afghan President Losing Support among the Powerful in the Country Key Judgments • • • • We asses with high confidence that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is very likely losing support among the country’s power-brokers. Ghani’s attempts to concentrate power in his office and seemingly at the expense of nonPashtun Afghan’s erodes his support. We assess with high confidence that President Ghani will highly likely continue to be challenged by political competitors. The erosion of Ghani’s political base of support creates increasing challenges to his authority from other Afghan power-brokers. President Ghani Alienates Afghan Power-brokers after His Election We assess with high confidence that President Ashraf Ghani is very likely losing support among Afghanistan’s political power-brokers. The origins of the crisis reach back to 2014 and the fraud that took place during the presidential election in Ghani’s favor and the power-sharing agreement that followed to keep the election results from leading to conflict between Ghani’s supporters and those of his contender, Abdullah Abdullah. Ghani and Abdullah had a deal reached, brokered by Secretary of State Kerry, to share power where Ghani would be president and Abdullah would be CEO (a position that does not exist in the Afghan constitution but was created as part of the deal). The following information comes from open source reporting. • • • • Ghani, who is Pashtun, was seen by many Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and others as stealing the election from Abdullah who is half Tajik and had a large following among Tajiks and other nonPashtun minorities. Thus, the dispute between Ghani and his opponents is viewed by most of the participants as struggle between Pashtuns and the rest of the population of the country over which ethnicity controls Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani has precipitated a potentially very de-stabilizing political crisis by reneging on most of the stipulations of the National Unity Government (NUG) agreement and using his power to remove political opponents, some of whom have major political bases of power in the country. It stipulated that the CEO position would become a prime minister position as Afghanistan progressed toward a more parliamentary form of government, and there would be increased devolution of power from the center to the provinces. Ghani stripped Abdullah of any real power, which has alienated Abdullah’s base. He has not held elections as promised and continues to delay them. Ghani has also not followed through with the other promises he made as part of the NUG agreement that are cited above. One of the most de-stabilizing actions taken by Ghani has been the removal and attempted removal of provincial governors, some of whom are very powerful political figures in 1 Afghanistan. In December 2017, Ghani fired Balkh Province governor Atta Mohammad Noor. Noor, who is a Tajik, refused to step down. In February 2018, Ghani fired Abdul Karim Khadam, a Turkmen, who is governor of Samangan Province. He also refused to step down. The Political Crisis Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better We assess with high confidence that President Ghani will very likely face increasing challenges to his authority. This is because he has alienated key power-brokers in Afghanistan. The following information comes from open source reporting. • • • Ghani faces a growing and threatening opposition led by Atta Noor, who has rallied scores of Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara and other elites to back him against Ghani. He has called for protests in the country and denounced what he and other opposition leaders call the Ghani dictatorship. Ghani has reacted to this opposition in mixed ways. He has tried to placate Noor and failed but Ghani has also launched corruption and fraud investigations against politicians who have turned on him. As a result of these actions, Ghani’s political base has shrunk severely, even among Pashtun elites. Ghani faces opposition from his vice-president Abdul Rashid Doshtum, an Uzbek power-broker who is living in self-imposed exile in Turkey because he faces criminal charges in Afghanistan. Doshtum, who has a large political following, is also organizing resistance to Ghani. Former President Hamid Karzai is exerting pressure on Ghani. Karzai is pressing hard for the calling of a Loya Jirga, which almost certainly would not go well for Ghani. Many in Afghanistan believe that Karzai is bent on coming back to power and is using the crisis to facilitate this. Outlook The scenarios that could play out over the next year include a continuation of the current crisis with no major fragmentation of the Afghan state, a non-violent fragmentation of the Afghan state, and a violent fragmentation of the Afghan state. All of these scenarios are problematic for efforts to defeat or even contain the Taliban and IS-KP insurgencies. But the third scenario would be the worst for efforts to contain armed opposition groups in the country and could result in the Taliban making very major gains, taking large urban areas. 2 ...
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Tutor Answer

School: University of Maryland



Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?




Key judgments

I deduce with high confidence that the Russian government was the prime suspect in the
poisoning and killing of Moskalenko.

In her work, Moskalenko handled numerous politically sensitive cases that caused
friction between her and the Russian government.

Moskalenko had repeated undergone harassment by the Moscow officials who were
punishing her for her involvement in politically sensitive cases. In 2007, the International
Helsinki Foundation for Human rights called out on the Russian government to stop the
harassment against Moskalenko.

Poisoning is the commonly used strategy by the Russian government where in the past
KGB and FSB officials have been used to poison various prominent people including
Politovskaya who Moskalenko was going to represent.
Who poisoned Moskalenko
Moskalenko had won a total of twenty-seven cases against the Russian government in

relation to the European Court of Human Rights, though she had lost some cases also. Winning
against Russia caused a lot of friction between her and the Russian government that resulted in
numerous cases of harassment against Moskalenko. Moskalenk...

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