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he moment is vividly etched into my brain. I am sitting in a large conference room in Cupertino, CA, having a pointed discussion with some very smart executives of a large and respected paper company. I am excitedly talking about the dynamics at play; technology, the Internet, the digital transformation. I continue to chatter on about our need to work together and the need to innovate, but I am clearly not connecting. Instead I am being lectured on the realities of the paper industry—the realities of being a commodity. Oh, how I hate that word, commodity. It Is like someone saying to me, "You are nothing more than average and you can never amount to anything more. Ifyou work really hard, the most you can ever aspire to is perhaps a bit better than average; but even that won't last." Ugh, just kill me now. I sit back for a second, reflecting and taking in the entire scene. I look out the window and I see building after building of some of the most powerful and profitable companies in the world. 1 am sitting in the heart of Silicon Valley—the Las Vegas of the business world, where big bets are de rigueur and innovation is the mantra. As I scan the conference table, 1 am absolutely struck by the fact that each executive is either drinking bottled water or a cup of Starbucks coffee, and we are talking about the inevitability of commoditization. What's wrong with this picture? I remember a day when water was FREE and coffee was, too, or darn close to it. I'd say that's about as close as you can get to a commodity. That certainly isn't the case anymore, which is why I proudly and boldly state that bei ng a commodity is synonymous with bad R&D and bad marketing. Accepting commoditization is accepting mediocrity—and there is NO place in the business worid for that! GLEN HOPKINS OPPORTUNITIES—THEY'RE OUT THERE Now that that's settled, let's talk about how we are going to shake things up in the world of paper and printing. There is an old saying, "Where there is chaos there is opportunity," which means there must be lots of opportunity right now. The Internet is moving into its second generation, and there has never been a more profound dynamic Paper360° December 2007 11 COMMENTARY "Being a commodity is synonymous with had R&D and had marketing." — Glen Hopkins, Vice President & General Manager, Printing and Technology Platforms, Hewlett-Packard in the history of the world, period. No country, culture, community or company will be left untouched. There will be big winners and big losers. Ifyou and your company want to survive-—let alone thrive—you will need to embrace this new order, and you will need to innovate. Let's look at the numbers. Today there are approximately 49 trillion pages printed each year, 9% of which can be considered full-fledged digital. It is estimated that in 2010, total pages will be 33 trillion and that 10% will be digital. The good news is that the number of pages will increase, which I believe is true because large portions of the world are industrializing at unprecedented rates. But come on, digital pages only going up one percentage point? I don't think so. When was the last time you bought a vinyl record or a VHS tape? How is that trusty old typewriter of yours working? Why is it, again, I need a land-line phone? lust as digital printing has totally transformed the home, the office and photography, it will transform commercial and industrial printing and publishing. Off-set printing and other analog approaches won't go away completely in the next decade, but they will be under increasing attack and will find themselves more and more relegated to very high-volume jobs that require minimal to no personalization. To drive this point home even further, let's examine three examples: books, marketing collateral and newspapers. GO DIGITAL, GET PERSONAL First of all, let me dispel one myth. The printed document is not going to go away in our lifetime. People tell me all the time that kids don't print. The heck they don't. They print way more than you or I did when we were kids. Besides that, be careful about projecting what your kids do today versus what they will do in the future. Otherwise you might falsely predict the immediate demise of the towel rack, coat hanger and vacuum cleaner industries. But back to our proof points. Marketing collateral is also known by the notso-positive name of "junk mail." Why? Because much of it goes directly from the mailbox to the garbage can. And why is that? Because much of what is, or used to be sent to us, was of no interest or of no value to us^—junk. But as Bob Dylan said, "The times they are a changing." Personalization of information is a fascinating new dynamic in our industry. The old carpet bombing techniques of shipping stuff out to everyone with the hope that someone might be interested are being pushed aside by much more powerful techniques that bring you and I information that is pertinent to our lifestyles, our tastes and our needs. Dang it, lam an individual, treat me like one. Digital technology is now making that happen, and Madison Avenue could not be more thrilled because it is scrambling to find more effective ways to "grab our eyeballs." Consider books. Did you have any trouble finding the last Harry Potter book? Of course not—it was everywhere. Those are not the books I am talking about. 1 am talking about the other 98% of the books that are considered "long tail," the ones that lend themselves to production volumes of five to 300, not five million. What percent of all written matter do you think you might fmd at your local Barnes and Noble or on Amazon.com? While guesses might vary, most Live! ... and in Dallas Glen Hopkins will be a keynote speaker at TAPPI's PaperCon '08 conference, May 4-7, 2008, in Dallas, where be will speak on "Dealing With Digital Darwinism." Tbe business world is evolving at an unprecedented rate—and only the fittest and most adaptable companies will survive. Drawing from his experience as a leader with a print technology innovator, Hopkins will discuss the lightning-fast rate in which the world is "flattening," the relentless move to digital, the enormous growth of the emerging market, and how all these things will create tremendous risk—and tremendous opportunities—for those willing to change. His observations will specifically address the paper and printing arena. PaperCon '08 combines, for the first time, three conferences (PIMA International Leadership, TAPPI Papermakers and TAPPI Coating & Graphic Arts) into one comprehensive event. To learn more, visit www.tappi.org. 12 Paper360'' December 2007 would probably be fractions of a percentage point. Digital changes all of that. We all know that newspapers are in trouble. Do you think that they might eventually go away? I don't. Do you think that someday they might be free? I do. Why is it that ads in newspapers and magazines don't bother us at all yet ads on the Internet drive us nuts? It is all about the way our eyes and minds work, and that is not going to change. But some other things need to. Publishers need to put the "news" back into newspapers, and digital changes that. I'd like a newspaper that has stories of interest to me. It should cover my favorite sports teams, have my favorite comic strips, and give me news on my old hometown, my current hometown, and the new town I am considering moving to. And, of course, ail the ads will be pertinent to me and my family. And just as I don't want my neighbors reading my mail, I don't want them reading my newspaper. Digital enables all of this. Now let's talk about the value chain in this brave new world. Electrons (the bits) are very small, very fast and have an unlimited amount of energy. As a result, it can be very efficient and quite inexpensive to ship these little guys half way around the world and back again. When these bits eventually get converted to atoms, we can talk about collapsing the value chain even further. We now find new ways of removing waste from the system, such as setup costs, people, planes, ships, trains and trucks. Digital enables all of this, too, thus creating new areas for value and new expanded profit pools. As we look to this final conversion of bits to atoms, there are some very powerful digital printing technologies thatareemerging. There is dry and liquid electrophotography, as well as various embodiments of inkjet. All of them will struggle, to various extents, with the current open and closed media available to them; makes sense because these media were designed and opti- mized for other applications, other business models. But that was then, this is now and that has to change. The bottom line is that companies that can envision and embrace the future will have a future. We are now in the 21" century, where digital will reign supreme. Innovation is the key, my friends. Think ahout that every time you take a sip of your latte or a swig from that bottle of water. ^ Glen Hopkins is vice president and general manager, printing & technology platforms for Hewlett-Packard Co. Contact him at glen.bopkins^hp. com. An unmistakable conimitment to a clean environment AsahiGuard's new AG-E060 coatings are free of PFOA, longer chain length PFCAs and their precursors. When it comes to choosing the right coatings for all your food packaging needs, AG-E060 coatings have superior characteristics. They recently secured FDA FCN approval for use with all food types. They have exceiient resistance to water, fats and oils including heated oils. They have no effect on air permeability or appearance. And they can be employed in either size press or wet end applications. For more information contact your AsahiGuard representative or visit us online at: http://www.agc.co.jp/GngIish/chemicaIs/aguard/aguard_l. Manufactured by Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. Distributed by AGC Chemicals Americas, ln< Email:asahiguard@agcchem.com Paper360° Chemicals Ami-rkas. Inc. December 2007 13
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