Earthquakes and Sensors: Experiencing Earthquake Motion in Three Directions
NOTE: In order to do this lab, you will need to download the MyShake app onto a cell phone or
tablet. This app currently only works for android operating systems, so if you have an iphone or
ipad, you will have to borrow a phone or tablet from someone you know who has a phone with
an android operating system. If this is not a possibility for you, you can do the alternative
assignment, which is found on our class site.
An earthquake is a sudden, rapid shaking of the Earth caused by the release of energy stored in
rocks when a fault slips. Sensors detect and record the motions of earthquakes in three
directions, even though motion during an earthquake is complex. These sensors also help us to
“unpack” or separate each type of motion.
Part 1: Videos showing complex motion that occurs during an earthquake
Watch the following video from the 1995 7.2 Kobe, Japan earthquake that displays the chaotic
motion that occurs during an earthquake. Answer the question that follows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkZLjH2yUo4
1. At the end of this video, what was seen on right-hand side?
A. A person who was sleeping was awakened by an earthquake.
B. A lamp fell over onto a couch during an earthquake and caught the couch on fire.
C. A shelving unit almost fell over on a worker in a convenience store.
D. A fire broke out from a broken gas line to a water heater that was not strapped to the wall.
E. A crowd of people have congregated to this area.
Watch the following video from the 1995 7.2 Kobe, Japan earthquake that displays the chaotic
motion that occurs during an earthquake. Answer the question that follows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEfnCoqZWYY
2. What was seen at the bottom of this video?
A. A person who was sleeping was awakened by an earthquake.
B. A lamp fell over onto a couch during an earthquake and caught the couch on fire.
C. A shelving unit almost fell over on a worker in a convenience store.
D. A fire broke out from a broken gas line to a water heater that was not strapped to the wall.
E. A crowd of people have congregated to this area.
1
Watch the following video from the 7.8 2015 Gorkha, Napal earthquake that displays the chaotic
motion that occurs during an earthquake. Answer the question that follows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HqcduyK_Lw
3. At the end of the video, what is seen in the bottom, left-hand side of this video?
A. A person who was sleeping was awakened by an earthquake.
B. A lamp fell over onto a couch during an earthquake and caught the couch on fire.
C. A shelving unit almost fell over on a worker in a convenience store.
D. A fire broke out from a broken gas line to a water heater that was not strapped to the wall.
E. A crowd of people have congregated to this area.
Part 2: Experience With Sensors
Earthquakes release waves that move Earth in three directions, which can be defined by the X,
Y, and Z axes in the Cartesian coordinate system. Our bodies can be thought of as sensors and
can feel this motion in these three directions. Just like our bodies can sense earthquakes,
geologists use sensors that can detect and record the motion of earthquake waves. We can detect
those waves with a seismometer, which is a ground motion detection sensor. Accelerometers are
electromechanical devices that can sense movement or vibrations by sensing the amount of
change in velocity (acceleration). Cell phones, tablets, etc. have built in accelerometers.
We will simulate earthquakes and explore sensors by using either a cell phone or tablet and
utilizing the MyShake app. To figure out and demonstrate the movement that occurs on each
axis, you will be moving the phone or tablet up and down, back and forth, and side to side.
In order to do this lab, you will need to download the MyShake app onto a cell phone or tablet.
This app currently only works for android operating systems, so if you have an iphone or ipad,
you will have to borrow a phone or tablet from someone you know who has a phone with an
android operating system. As mentioned above, if this is not a possibility for you, you can do the
alternative assignment, which is found on our class site.
● Install the free MyShake app (From the play store or available at:
http://myshake.berkeley.edu)
● Launch the MyShake app
● On the MyShake app, tap the three horizontal lines (the hamburger menu) on the top lefthand side of the screen. Click on “Sensor.” You should see 3 lines (blue, red and green).
● VERY IMPORTANT! MAKE SURE THAT AT ALL TIMES, THE IMAGES AND
TEXT ON YOUR PHONE ARE FACING THE CORRECT WAY! DO NOT TURN
YOUR PHONE TO THE LANDSCAPE POSITION. KEEP YOUR PHONE IN THE
PORTRAIT POSITION. IF YOU ARE STILL CONFUSED, IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED LIKE THE FIRST PICTURE ON THE NEXT PAGE, NOT THE
SECOND ONE!
2
Like this!
Not like this!
● Move the sensor (your phone or tablet) around and observe how the three lines move.
● You may remember from a math class that you use the Cartesian coordinate system to
graph a point on an X and Y plane. However, we live in a 3D world, so really there is a Z
direction (the third dimension) coming straight out of the screen of your phone. For
example, think of a map. It is like the X axis shows your position on a map as you go
west to east (or left and right), the Y axis shows your position on a map as you go south
to north (or forward and backward), and the Z axis shows you which floor you are on in a
multistory building (up and down), adding the third dimension.
● Put the sensor flat on the table. Shake the sensor somewhat quickly in order to isolate
each of the directions one at a time. In other words, get one of the graphs to move more
than the others. You will also have to lift/shake the phone straight up and down (again,
somewhat quickly) to isolate one of the directions as well. Figure out which direction of
movement moves each graph. You are trying to obtain lines that look like the below
images as you isolate each type of movement.
3
● Answer the set of questions below. Be aware of the key on the MyShake app that shows
that X is blue, Y is red, and Z is green.
4. Which way were you moving the sensor in order to isolate movement in the X direction?
A. left and right
B. forward and backward
C. up and down
5. Which way were you moving the sensor in order to isolate movement in the Y direction?
A. left and right
B. forward and backward
C. up and down
6. Which way were you moving the sensor in order to isolate movement in the Z direction?
A. left and right
B. forward and backward
C. up and down
4
Part 3: Earthquakes
You should now understand the three dimensions that the Earth is moving during an earthquake
and that sensors can detect this motion. The below screenshots are of imaginary earthquakes that
had differing amounts of motion in the X, Y, and Z directions. The sensor has recorded the
chaotic motion (as was seen in the videos in part one) and has “unpacked” or separated each type
of motion. Move the sensor in order to produce a record similar to what is shown in screenshot
images below.
7. During an earthquake, which ways is the sensor being moved in order to produce a record with
waves that are more prominent in the X and Z directions more than the Y direction?
A. left and right only
B. forward and backward only
C. up and down only
D. left, right, forward, and backward
E. left, right, up, and down
F. forward, backward, up, and down
G. left, right, forward, backward, and up and down
5
8. During an earthquake, which ways is the sensor being moved in order to produce a record with
waves that are more prominent in the X and Y directions more than the Z direction?
A. left and right only
B. forward and backward only
C. up and down only
D. left, right, forward, and backward
E. left, right, up, and down
F. forward, backward, up, and down
G. left, right, forward, backward, and up and down
6
9. During an earthquake, which ways is the sensor being moved in order to produce a record with
waves that are more prominent in the Y and Z directions more than the X direction?
A. left and right only
B. forward and backward only
C. up and down only
D. left, right, forward, and backward
E. left, right, up, and down
F. forward, backward, up, and down
G. left, right, forward, backward, and up and down
7
10. During an earthquake, which ways is the sensor being moved in order to produce a record
with waves that are prominent in the X, Y, and Z directions?
A. left and right only
B. forward and backward only
C. up and down only
D. left, right, forward, and backward
E. left, right, up, and down
F. forward, backward, up, and down
G. left, right, forward, backward, and up and down
8
Part 4: Earthquake Early Warning
Having more of these sensors around can be useful. By having many sensors in various areas, if
one area experiences an earthquake, we can detect that motion and send a warning out to people
in other areas that are further away from it. This can help to warn them of the coming danger.
Even just a few seconds of warning can prevent injuries and loss of life. Watch the following
videos. Some of them are about how we are using seismic networks to help us develop
ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system (EEW) for west coast and Pacific northwest of
the United States. Others are about how other countries are currently using earthquake early
warning systems. Note, these systems are not to predict earthquakes, they are to warn people of
an earthquake coming towards them that has already started somewhere farther away. Answer
the questions that follow each video.
CBS News Report about ShakeAlert
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86HLUyUM2so
11. How many sensors are there currently on the west coast, mostly in Southern California, that
sense the earthquake and therefore help pass on data to help warn cities?
A. about 50
B. about 70
C. less than 500
D. more than 700
ShakeAlert: How does it work?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWl3m4OyU44
12. Besides giving important alerts to drop, cover, and hold on, shake alert also gives time to
____________________.
A. get away from dangerous machines or chemicals
B. shut down gas and electric supply lines
C. stop rail and road traffic
D. halt airport takeoffs and landings
E. stop surgeries
F. get emergency personnel ready to respond
G. all of the answers provided
9
Eagle Rock High School
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5mvKXmif-E
13. ShakeAlert, an earthquake early warning system (EEW), is currently being tested by some
utilities, transportation systems, and cities to shut down critical system that could be damaged or
cause injury during violent shaking. In how many high schools is it currently being tested?
A. One
B. 25
C. 50
D. All of the high schools in Los Angeles Unified School District
14. Once it is fully operational, which would take $38 million, how much money would be
needed annually to operate and maintain an earthquake early warning system (EEW)?
A. $16 million
B. $45 million
C. $ 100 million
D. $250 million
Mexico’s Earthquake Early Warning System
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTblbuEe6ag&list=PLIDYNUx1ulxbAeDjPd304qWmvgitrZoU
15. Mexico City has had and earthquake early warning system since 1991. There are also
systems in Japan, Istanbul, Turkey, Bucharest, Romania, China, Italy, and Taiwan. All of these
systems are tailor made for the local system of faults and thus cannot easily be adapted to
California.
Between 1985 and 2017, how many alert systems have been set up throughout Mexico that can
alert people about earthquakes?
A. 500
B. 1000
C. 3,700
D. 8,200
10
Mexico’s Earthquake Early Warning System – example from 9-19-17
In these videos, you can hear the sirens from the earthquake early warning system in place in
Mexico.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9Bsq5IcrFA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a9tc5khHcQ
16. In the video that showed the Main Square in Mexico City, which of the following is true?
A. The earthquake never reaches this area.
B. None of the poles are moving
C. Every building around the Main Square falls
D. People begin exiting buildings even before the earthquake arrives
17. In the video that showed many short video clips of the 9-19-17 earthquake in the Mexico
City area, you will hear the sirens and will see some of the damage that occurred. Which of the
following assumptions can be made about the earthquake early warning system in Mexico after
watching this video?
A. This system helped many people evacuate some of the unstable buildings in the area
before they were damaged or collapsed.
B. This system helped to reduce the loss of life that occurred during this earthquake.
C. This system gave people in this area a few seconds of warning before the earthquake
arrived, in order to take action.
D. All of these answers
Japan’s Earthquake Early Warning System – Examples
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-FMpNBfna8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqgAgJODgho
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXXZouxPT7U&t=77s
18. In the home video from the March 11, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, how did this resident
receive a warning about the earthquake?
A. from their phone
B. from sirens around the city
C. from their computer
D. from their neighbor
11
19. Japan has had a nationwide public warning system since 2007. In the 2012 video that shows
the warning system interrupting a news report, it is reported that an earthquake actually started at
8:43 am. What time does the screen show when it is reported that they now feel shaking at the
NHK studio in Shibuya, Tokyo, where this is being filmed?
A. 8:43 am
B. 8:44 am
C. 8:45 am
D. 8:46 am
20. In the 10 minute video that discusses the Eathquake Early Warning System in Japan, it
discusses the earthquake early warning system and mentions what people should do when they
hear the warning. For example, if you are driving and receive an earthquake early warning, what
is it suggested that you do?
A. Avoid sudden breaking or swerving. Turn on hazard lights and pull over to the side of the
road.
B. Continue driving, but go to a fire department or police station.
C. Honk your horn three times to alert other people of the earthquake warning, in case they
did not hear it.
D. Stop immediately. It doesn’t matter if anything falls on you, since you are in a car.
12
ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario – A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
Read The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are
Writing, U.S.Geological Survey, Circular 1324, which is found as a pdf file on the class
site. Alternatively, you can view or download this report at
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/c1324.pdf. Answer the below questions. Remember, to get
credit for this assignment, you must go onto the classroom management system and input
your answers.
1. What was the purpose of the ShakeOut earthquake scenario?
A. To create an exact simulation of what every damaging earthquake in southern
California will be like
B. To investigate the wide-ranging effects of a plausible, hypothetical earthquake in
southern California so as to learn how to best prepare and plan for such an event.
C. To scare Californians into preparing for an unrealistic earthquake so that they would
be prepared for a realistic one.
D. To teach Californians about all of the scientific details of why earthquakes happen.
2. What is the size of the hypothetical earthquake that was used in this scenario?
A. Magnitude 7.0
B. Magnitude 7.4
C. Magnitude 7.8
D. Magnitude 8.0
3. On which fault will was the scenario earthquake projected to occur?
A. The southern San Andreas fault
B. The northern San Andreas fault
C. The San Jacinto fault
D. The Cucamonga fault
4. What degree of damage and casualties are expected in this scenario?
A. About 2000 fatalities; 20,000 injuries and $100 billion in damage.
B. About 2000 fatalities; 50,000 injuries and over $200 billion in damage.
C. About 5,000 fatalities, 50,000 injuries and $100 billion in damage.
D. About 10,000 fatalities, 75,000 injuries and over $200 billion in damage.
5. When we practice the ShakeOut Senario Earthquake now, it is always the third
Thursday in October. Whatever the date is that day, those numbers are used to determine
the time we hold the drill. For example, in 2017, the ShakeOut drill will be on October
19th at 10:19 in the morning. However, in this scenario (which was the first ShakeOut
scenario drill we did), the earthquake begins at what time and on what date and day of the
week?
A. 2:00 pm on Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2008
B. 10:00 am on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2008
C. 11:00 pm on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2008
D. 3:00 am on Friday, Nov. 14, 2008
6. List the major lifelines (utilities and other infrastructure that support our society) that
cross the San Andreas fault in Cajon Pass and will be offset and rendered temporarily
dysfunctional by the scenario earthquake.
A. Interstate highway 15 only
B. Interstate highway 15 and railroad lines
C. Interstate highway 15, railroad lines and electrical power lines
D. Interstate highway 15, railroad lines, electrical power lines and telephone and internet
lines
E. Interstate highway 15, railroad lines, electrical power lines, telephone and internet
lines and water lines
F. Interstate highway 15, railroad lines, electrical power lines, telephone and internet
lines, water lines and gas and other fuel lines
7. In this scenario, many newer buildings in areas with strong shaking suffer little or no
structural damage, as a result of improved building codes over the years, but what
happens inside these buildings?
A. Not much
B. Some items fall off shelves
C. Every object that is not secured is thrown to the floor. Floors are covered with cords
and broken glass from windows, televisions and computer monitors.
8. Which two major freeways are offset by the San Andreas fault during the ShakeOut
scecario earthquake?
A. I-10 in San Gorgonio Pass (near Banning) and near Indio and I-15 in Cajon Pass
B. I-10 in San Gorgonio Pass (near Banning) and near Indio and I-210 in Fontana
C. I-15 in Cajon Pass and I-210 in Fontana
D. I-215 in Rialto and I-15 in Cajon Pass
9. In addition to fault offset, what else contributes to freeway closures in Cajon Pass?
A. Tsunami
B. Landslides
C. Downed power lines
D. Nothing else
10. How long will strong shaking last in Los Angeles?
A. 30 seconds
B. 45 seconds
C. 55 seconds
D. Over one minute
11. For comparison, what was the duration of strong shaking in the Northridge
earthquake?
A. 7 seconds
B. 15 seconds
C. 24 seconds
D. 30 seconds
12. What are the effects of the power outages that are expected to happen?
A. Stoplights stop functioning, leading to gridlock and abandoned cars
B. Electric trains stop
C. People are trapped in stopped elevators
D. Residents can not turn on the TV to learn news of the earthquake and its effects
elsewhere
E. All of the above
13. How many aftershocks are expected?
A. Several hundred
B. Several thousand
C. Tens of thousands
D. Hundreds of thousands
14. How many of these aftershocks are expected to cause additional damage?
A. Just a few
B. Dozens
C. Hundreds
D. Thousands
15. What is the status of the hospitals expected to be immediately after a quake like this
one?
A. No damage; all are fully functional.
B. Only minor damage; a few have reduced capacity, but all remain open.
C. No complete collapses, but many are non-functional due either to shaking-related
damage or other damage.
D. Many hospitals have completely collapsed and most others are non-functional.
16. Five minutes after the earthquake, what methods are available to residents to get
information about what has just happened?
A. Television, radio, internet, phone calls to friends
B. Television and radio, but no internet or phone service
C. Internet and phone service, but no television or radio
D. Only battery operated radios and neighbors in the street
17. What is the status of the phone lines immediately after the earthquake?
A. Phone lines (including cell phones and 911) are unusable, overwhelmed by the vast
number of attempted calls.
B. Cell phones are working, but land lines are not
C. Land lines are working, but cell phones are not
D. Phone service is only disrupted in a few local areas
18. Most of the victims trapped in rubble after the earthquake are rescued by who?
A. FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)
B. Local Fire and Police departments
C. State troopers National Guard
D. National Guard
E. Other survivors (private citizens)
19. What factors contribute to the ignition fires after an earthquake?
A. Power lines arc
B. Gas lines to appliances break
C. Chemicals spill and mix
D. Electrical appliances are shaken into dangerous positions (e.g., a lamp falls onto a
couch), which are not noticed because the power is out (and the building may be
evacuated), but when power comes back on, they pose a fire hazard.
E. All of the above
20. What factors contribute to the SPREAD of fires after an earthquake?
A. Phones are unusable, so fires go unreported.
B. Fire departments are overwhelmed by the number of fires.
C. Roads are blocked with debris and abandoned cars.
D. Many fires are not discovered right away, because some buildings are evacuated.
E. Inadequate water pressure
F. all of the above
G. “B” and “E” only
H. “B”, “C” and “E” only
21. What issue is discovered 30 minutes after the earthquake that leads to the need for an
evacuation, thus pulling emergency personnel away from other tasks?
A. A tsunami is approaching
B. Dams are inspected and several are found to be leaking at the toe—a sign of potential
failure.
C. A leak is discovered at a nuclear power plant
D. A landslide is imminent in a heavily populated area
22. At 10:33 am an aftershock occurs in the Imperial Valley, south of the southern end of
the main shock rupture. What effect does this aftershock have on the disaster response to
the main shock?
A. No effect
B. Responders from San Diego county who had been prepared to head north to help, are
now diverted to deal with the damage caused by the aftershock
C. The aftershock causes additional damage to the Inland Empire area.
23. Two hours after the earthquake, where do southern California fire fighters turn for
additional help?
A. the Los Angeles fire department
B. the San Diego fire department
C. Orange County fire departments
D. Fire departments in the San Francisco Bay area and Arizona
24. What factors hinder the arrival of additional help from other fire departments?
A. There are no hindrances
B. Bureaucratic mix-ups
C. Fuel shortages
D. Damaged and blocked roads
25. What is the status of communications 21 hours after the earthquake?
A. Communications systems are fully restored.
B. About 50% of communications are restored
C. Phones are still not usable. Ham radio operators are relaying messages to assist
emergency responders.
D. Relatives outside the area still have no news on the condition of their loved ones
E. both “C” and “D”
26. What is the status of utilities 24 hours after the earthquake?
A. All are fully restored
B. About 50% are restored
C. Water, electricity and gas are still out in the areas that were strongly shaken
27. What are the primary modes of transportation 24 hours after the earthquake?
A. All modes of transportation are restored.
B. Most roads are accessible, but railroads are still being repaired.
C. Many roads are still damaged. Emergency responders have access to helicopters, but
private citizens are limited to bicycles and 4WD vehicles in heavily damaged areas.
28. What is the status of housing in heavily shaken areas 24 hours after the earthquake?
A. Only minor damage; all homes are still habitable
B. Red Cross shelters are opening in schools and recreation buildings; many people are
camped outside.
29. What are some of the untrue (or not fully true) rumors that circulate after the
earthquake?
A. Dead bodies cause disease.
B. Scientists are hiding information.
C. Looting is occurring almost everywhere.
D. All of the above
30. What is the status of fires 3 days after the earthquake?
A. All fires that were caused by the earthquake have been put out.
B. Most fires are out, and the few that remain burning are under control
C. Most fires are out, but there are some super-conflagrations that are consuming 100’s of
blocks.
D. All efforts to keep fires from spreading have failed
31. We have what is referred to as a “just in time” economy, in which goods are delivered
just as they are needed and are not stock-piled locally in warehouses. What effect does
this have on life after an earthquake?
A. No effect
B. It makes it easier to bring in goods efficiently after an earthquake
C. Goods must be brought in from elsewhere, and they do not begin arriving until about 3
days after the earthquake.
32. What is the difference between a disaster and a catastrophe?
A. They are two words that mean essentially the same thing
B. A community recovers from a disaster within a few years. If the system is so badly
damaged that recovery efforts stall, affecting the way of life in the community for
decades or even permanently, then it becomes a catastrophe.
The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story
That Southern Californians Are Writing
Circular 1324
Jointly published as
California Geological Survey Special Report 207
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
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The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story
That Southern Californians Are Writing
By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz,
Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle,
Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein
Circular 1324
Jointly published as
California Geological Survey Special Report 207
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior
DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary
U.S. Geological Survey
Mark D. Myers, Director
State of California
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor
The Resources Agency
MIKE CHRISMAN, Secretary for Resources
Department of Conservation
Bridgett Luther, Director
California Geological Survey
John G. Parrish, Ph.D., State Geologist
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2008
This report and any updates to it are available online at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/
For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/, Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS
For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources,
natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/, Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747)
Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any
copyrighted material contained within this report.
Cataloging-in-Publication data are on file with the Library of Congress (URL http://www.loc.gov/).
Produced in the Western Region, Menlo Park, California
Manuscript approved for publication, April 21, 2008
Text edited by James W. Hendley II and Peter Stauffer
Layout and design by Judy Weathers
FRONT COVER—Ground motion for the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake 60 seconds after the southern San Andreas Fault first begins rupturing. Yellow shows
the highest amplitudes of ground motion. (Simulation by Rob Graves of URS Corporation for the Southern California Earthquake Center on high-performance
computers at the University of Southern California; image courtesy of Geoff Ely, University of California San Diego/San Diego Supercomputer Center.)
BACK COVER—Within the ShakeOut Scenario study area are many neighborhoods like this one, at severe risk from fire following earthquake. Here, tightly
packed wood buildings will enable small fires to spread and merge into conflagrations that can burn dozens of blocks. Fire following earthquake can have
devastating consequences, as tragically seen after the 1906 San Francisco, 1923 Tokyo, and 1995 Kobe earthquakes. It is a significant threat in urban areas
of California and doubles the fatalities and economic losses in the hypothetical ShakeOut earthquake. (Google Earth image.)
iii
Contents
Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1
The ShakeOut Scenario Is Not a Prediction..............................................................................................1
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative...............................................................................................................5
How Do We Write the Ending?...................................................................................................................15
Additional Information.................................................................................................................................16
ShakeOut Scenario Coordinators:
Lucile Jones, USGS: Chief Scientist
Dale Cox, USGS: Project Manager
Suzanne Perry, USGS: Staff Scientist/Writer
Richard Bernknopf, USGS: Economics
James Goltz, Governor’s Office of Emergency Services: Emergency Response
Kenneth Hudnut, USGS: Earthquake Design
Dennis Mileti, California Seismic Safety Commission: Emergency Response
Daniel Ponti, USGS: Secondary Hazards
Keith Porter, University of Colorado: Physical Damages
Michael Reichle, California Geological Survey: Lifelines Special Studies
Hope Seligson, MMI Engineering: HAZUS Loss Estimations
Kimberley Shoaf, University of California Los Angeles: Health, Safety, Social, Cultural, and Institutional
Jerry Treiman, California Geological Survey: Lifelines Special Studies
Anne Wein, USGS: Economics
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The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That
Southern Californians Are Writing
By Suzanne Perry, Dale Cox, Lucile Jones, Richard Bernknopf, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti,
Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein
Introduction
The question is not if but when southern
California will be hit by a major earthquake—
one so damaging that it will permanently change
lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe
the changes will be depends on the actions that
individuals, schools, businesses, organizations,
communities, and governments take to get ready.
To help prepare for this event, scientists of the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the
way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting
a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes
the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other
partners in government, academia, emergency
response, and industry, working to understand the
long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on
the complicated social and economic interactions
that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best
current scientific understanding to identify what
can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this
project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150;
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/).
The “what if?” earthquake modeled in the
ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the
southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected
the details of this hypothetical earthquake by
considering the amount of stored strain on that
part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that
would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and
other professionals used the shaking to produce
a realistic picture of this earthquake’s damage
to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists
projected casualties, emergency response, and the
impact of the scenario earthquake on southern
California’s economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and resulting losses are one
realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case
scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against.
Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the
risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California’s economic and social systems are still
vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of
this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would
dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken
now that can change that outcome and repay any
costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario
is the first public product of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project, created to show
how hazards science can increase a community’s
resiliency to natural disasters through improved
planning, mitigation, and response.
The ShakeOut Scenario Is Not a
Prediction
On November 13, 2008, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake and projected damages will be
used as a basis for public drills and emergency
2 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
response exercises, and so this hypothetical earthquake has been arbitrarily assigned a date, a time,
a plausible collection of aftershocks, and even
local weather conditions. Because it is a scenario
for planning, it provides detailed numbers, including casualties, collapsed buildings, and business
losses. Yet, the ShakeOut earthquake is not a
prediction. Certainly, a large earthquake involving this part of the San Andreas Fault is highly
probable. In fact, scientists have determined that
this is the most likely source of a large earthquake
in all of California (see Forecasting California’s
Earthquakes—What Can We Expect in the Next
30 Years?, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet
2008-3027; http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/).
When the next San Andreas Fault earthquake
does happen, some things are inevitable—the
fault rupture will break any road, track, or pipe
that crosses it, and intense shaking will damage
or destroy buildings that weren’t constructed to
withstand it. The next earthquake will be different in details from the ShakeOut earthquake, and
its total damages and losses will differ, because
each earthquake produces its own patterns of
shaking and damage. However, the widespread,
regional effects will be similar, and so will the
long-term social and economic impacts. Getting prepared for the ShakeOut earthquake will
help southern Californians withstand other
earthquakes of comparable size. If we take no
additional actions for preparedness and mitigation, and the ShakeOut earthquake does occur,
it will cause some 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries,
$200 billion in damage, and severe, long-lasting
disruption. These numbers can climb with each
damaging aftershock.
LIFELINES CROSS THE FAULT
San
And
reas
Faul
t
The Cajon Pass is one of five major “lifeline corridors” that are the veins and arteries through which
economic life circulates in southern California. These lifeline corridors allow commuters, goods,
telephone and Internet lines, electricity, water, gas, and fuels to move through the mountains that
surround southern California. Because most of the corridors must cross the southern San Andreas
Fault, future earthquakes are certain to sever the lifelines in one or more of these corridors and cause
significant economic disruption by interrupting the movement of goods from the ports of Los Angeles
and Long Beach. (USGS photo by Lucile Jones.)
The ShakeOut Scenario Is Not a Prediction 3
C
A
LI
F
O
R
N
IA
N
MAP LOCATION
The San Andreas Fault slices through southern California and produces earthquakes that shape
and reshape the region. Unlike many other faults, the southern San Andreas Fault produces no
small earthquakes. Its next earthquake will disrupt the complicated economic and social systems
that define southern California and will affect everyone, including those living and working in
communities relatively undamaged by the initial violent shaking.
These computer-generated snapshots show ground motions for the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake, in meters per second (m/s; 1 m/s is about 3.3 feet per second). Yellow
indicates higher amplitudes of ground motion. The snapshots show three points in time—30 (left), 60 (center), and 120 (right) seconds after the southern San Andreas Fault
(dashed white line) first begins rupturing at Bombay Beach, on the eastern shore of the Salton Sea. Note that some areas remain orange colored for much longer than others,
indicating extended, intense shaking in some of the sedimentary basins of southern California. (Simulation by Rob Graves of URS Corporation for the Southern California Earthquake
Center on high-performance computers at the University of Southern California; images courtesy of Geoff Ely, University of California San Diego/San Diego Supercomputer Center.)
4 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
THE EARTHQUAKE ADVANCES
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative 5
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative
Much like a movie script, the following fictional narrative will guide those participating in
the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario public drills and emergency response exercises on November
13, 2008. More effectively than any statistics, this narrative describes what this magnitude 7.8
earthquake would be like in southern California if no additional actions are taken for mitigation
or preparedness.
November 13, 2008
Thursday 9:50 a.m. (… 10 minutes before the quake begins…)
By mid-morning on this workday, 200,000 commuters have made their way from
Kern, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties into the Los Angeles area. These drivers trade a lengthy commute for the lower cost of housing in fast-growing communities like Victorville and Lancaster, on the far side of
the San Andreas Fault. Others cross the fault in the
opposite direction, to employers in high desert communities. The commuters have joined 7.5 million other
southern Californians in workplaces constructed of
steel, concrete, brick, or wood. Of the many millions of
homes and workplaces, only a fraction are covered by
earthquake insurance.
A steady flow of trains crosses the San Andreas Fault at
multiple locations, moving goods between cargo ships at
the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the rest of
the country. Trucks are also on the move nonstop, carrying goods through narrow passes cut in the San Gabriel
and San Bernardino Mountains. These “lifeline corridors”
are the veins and arteries that sustain economic life
in southern California. Sharing these passes with cars,
buses, trucks, and trains are pipelines carrying natural gas and fuels; water conveyance
tunnels, pipes, and aqueducts; electrical transmission towers and lines; and the telecommunications cables that connect people by phone and Internet—connecting banks and
clients, suppliers and providers, buyers and sellers, friends and families, headquarters
and field offices. Like the commuters, they all cross the San Andreas Fault.
Thursday 9:52 a.m. (… 8 minutes before
the quake begins …)
The San Andreas Fault slices through California,
marking the boundary between the Pacific and North
American tectonic plates. Along this boundary, the
plates try to slide past each other, but near the
surface they are locked by friction and deform instead
of moving, storing up strain energy. Eventually and
suddenly, the friction will give way and the plates will
slip, creating a powerful earthquake. This earthquake
will rupture the Earth’s surface and release stored
energy in seismic waves that travel out in all directions,
shaking the ground as they go. On the southern San
Andreas Fault, an earthquake rupture and energy
release occur on average every 150 years—but the last
time was more than 300 years ago.
6 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
The next earthquake is about to begin. It will not be the biggest earthquake that has
ever occurred on the southern San Andreas Fault, but it will be big enough to change
southern California markedly for untold years to come. It will wreak economic havoc on
many who are unharmed by the initial shaking and damage.
Thursday 9:55 a.m. (…5 minutes before the quake begins…)
It is sunny with a light breeze. Fortunately, today there
will be no Santa Ana winds. Throughout the region, cars
flow to the pulse of traffic lights. Rush hour traffic has
cleared, and the workday is well underway in offices,
warehouses, factories, and stores. Many of the older
buildings and even a few newer ones are constructed in
ways that make them vulnerable to earthquake shaking.
Schools are full of students, as well as furniture and
equipment that will topple in a earthquake, and heavy
objects that will become airborne.
Thursday 10:00 a.m. (...the quake begins...)
The San Andreas Fault suddenly awakens at Bombay
Beach, northeast of the Salton Sea, and the rupture
shoots northwest along the fault at 2 miles per second,
sending seismic energy waves out in all directions. In
an instant, the ground on the two sides of the fault is offset nearly 44 feet, changing the political and geographic boundary between Imperial and Riverside Counties.
Thursday 10:00:30 a.m.
As the earthquake’s rupture front travels up the fault, it sends out seismic waves
that shake the ground, shifting emergency generators, overturning computers, cracking airport runways, and igniting fires. By now, the thick sediments
of the Coachella Valley are resonating, with the
earthquake waves bouncing between the rock walls of
the valley’s edges. Strong shaking will continue here
for nearly a minute.
The life-safety provisions of California’s building
codes have been improved over the years, and the
many fairly new homes in the Coachella Valley suffer only minor damage. Yet every item inside these
homes, if not secured, is heading to the floor. Shattered TVs and other home electronics create treacherous carpets of glass and cords.
Many older buildings suffer structural damage. Many
older concrete buildings quickly collapse, trapping occupants. The rupture front
continues its advance to San Gorgonio Pass and dismantles the ten miles of Interstate 10 freeway that straddles the San Andreas Fault. The eastern part of Riverside County is now cut off from the western part.
Thursday 10:01:00 a.m.
Most people in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are not yet aware of what is happening as the earthquake pounds the Coachella Valley and heads their way. By now
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative 7
the first waves have crashed through the Cajon Pass, severing the I-15 freeway,
bending rail lines, and derailing a train. Roads, previously throughgoing across the
fault, now end abruptly and pick up again 15 feet to the right.The strong shaking
also sends landslides across the rails and roads. Pipelines snap and electrical transmission lines fail. Spraying fuel ignites, causing an explosion.
Strong shaking begins to reverberate in the sedimentfilled basins of the Inland Empire. Old warehouse
districts and historic downtowns are crumbling, and
many of their old, unretrofitted buildings have trapped
or killed the people inside. Many older concrete buildings have collapsed, and many older woodframe buildings
have shifted off their foundations, breaking gas and
water lines in the process.
The Coachella Valley is still shaking.
Thursday 10:01:30 a.m.
Over geologic time, the motion of tectonic plates has
pushed the mountains of southern California up, while
fire, rain, and rivers have brought the mountains down,
piece by piece, filling basins with sediments and creating low, flat areas. Like many
cities, Los Angeles was built atop sediments. Some of the seismic waves now reach
these sediments and find easy territory in which to move back and forth, shaking
vigorously long after the waves fade elsewhere. Strong shaking will continue in Los
Angeles for 55 seconds, to the shock of residents who remember the strong shaking
during the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which lasted only 7 seconds.
The seismic waves that reverberate in the sedimentary basins are big, long waves. Many buildings ride
them like boats in choppy seas, but some are not so
resistant. The prolonged, strong shaking heavily damages and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick
buildings, hundreds of older commercial and industrial
concrete buildings, many woodframe buildings, and
even a few, fairly new high-rise steel buildings. The
building damage causes tens of thousands of injuries
and hundreds of deaths, and strands many thousands
of people without homes or jobs.
Buried in the sediments are the water and sewer pipes
that maintain the cities. Many of these pipes crack
when the earthquake waves deform the ground.
In the newer houses, the primary damage is to contents.
Kitchen floors have disappeared under heaps of cooking
oil, syrup, flour, and smashed dishes, but there is no water in the taps to start cleaning.
Power is out so stoplights are dark and electric trains are suddenly immobilized.
Buses, cars, and trucks become gridlocked, and many drivers will experience this
earthquake as taillights for hours, to the horizon. Eventually, many will open their
car doors and not look back as they begin the long walk home, perhaps envied only by
people sitting in the dark, waiting to be rescued from stalled and stifling elevators.
8 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
Thursday 10:02 a.m. (…2 minutes after the quake began…)
At last, the fault has stopped rupturing, but seismic waves continue to advance
into Bakersfield, Oxnard, and Santa Barbara—here the shaking is just beginning.
Across southern California, the power is out. Emergency generators that have been
secured against earthquake shaking are still functional and now kick on. The shaking
has finally stopped in the Coachella Valley—but the aftershocks are just beginning.
Throughout southern California in the next few
months there will be tens of thousands of earthquake aftershocks large enough to feel. There will
be dozens large enough to cause additional damage
and to imperil victims and rescuers. Some of the
aftershock damage will be to people’s psyches. Big
earthquakes are traumatic, and each new bout of
shaking increases stress, especially in children who
are cut off from their families.
In the areas of strong shaking, many mobile homes
have collapsed off supports, snapping water, gas and
sewer lines, and blocking rescue routes. Mobile homes
installed snugly in shallow pits, or braced for earthquakes, are still intact.
The State highway system has fared well. A $6 billion investment in seismic retrofitting has paid off,
and the only highway deaths have been in crashes caused by intense earthquake
shaking. However, the long duration of shaking has taken its toll on bridges and
overpasses within local jurisdictions, where the retrofitting process is not completed, or not yet begun.
No hospitals have seen complete collapses, but many hospital buildings are nonfunctional. Some hospital structures survived the shaking but must close due to nonstructural damage such as water pipes that break and flood.
Thursday 10:05 a.m. (… 5 minutes after the quake began …)
The U.S. Geological Survey posts preliminary information about the earthquake. Learning that the magnitude is 7.8, the world turns its attention to southern
California. Locally, news helicopters take to the air to
begin spot coverage of the devastation. With power
out, residents turn to their radios or talk to those they
meet in the streets, searching for any information.
Across the region, phone systems, including
cellular and 911, are unusable, overwhelmed by the
vast number of attempted calls.
Thursday 10:30 a.m. (… 30 minutes after the
quake began…)
Emergency operations centers are activating,
and police, fire, and medical personnel shift into
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative 9
emergency response mode, focusing on localized incidents with any means
available. They react quickly, according to their training and earthquake plans
established in advance.
All over the region, a foreseeable tragedy unfolds. Buildings that engineers knew were
going to perform badly, have performed badly. These are older buildings, constructed
with little earthquake resistance. The experts have names for them—non-ductile reinforced concrete, tilt-up concrete, unreinforced masonry,
soft-stories—and hundreds of these buildings have now
followed their reputations into the dust. Thousands of
other structures are still standing, but so gravely damaged that they can never be used again.
While the earth still shakes in places far from the
earthquake’s origin, people in the earliest hit areas
are beginning to confront damaged buildings and to
help those who are trapped or hurt. Lacking gloves,
crowbars, and training, some people claw through
debris with bare hands. Ultimately, 95 percent of
those who are rescued will be rescued by other
victims, as has been seen in earthquake disasters
worldwide.
Air traffic is being diverted from southern California.
As people start to assess their situations, millions of them discover they are
cut off from their families, with no way to learn the fate of their loved ones or
homes. This realization also hits first responders as they move out to help; they
understand that the disaster may seem to be over but is just beginning.
Fires are starting in countless ways. Power lines arc… gas appliance lines snap…
chemicals spill and mix… a lamp hits a sofa, unnoticed with the power out and the
earth shaking, then the power returns and the sofa starts to smolder… Most
of the fires start small, but not all are discovered right away. In any case, the
phones don’t have dial tones. Even if they did, in a disaster this big and widespread, there are not enough emergency personnel to immediately respond to
every call for help. Worse, response is slowed by roads that are impassable due
to damage, building debris, or abandoned cars. Worse still, in many places the
water system is damaged, leaving inadequate water
pressure for fire fighting.
Once started, a small fire needs only minutes to
engulf a home or workplace. Around southern California on this day, there will be 1,600 fires large enough
to warrant a 911 call. The stronger the shaking, the
greater the number of fires ignited. In areas with
densely packed, woodframe buildings, some of these
ignitions will combine, spreading into conflagrations
that burn dozens of blocks.
As soon as the shaking stops, experts race to
inspect dams around the region. A few are found
to be leaking at the toe—a sign of potential failure. Emergency responders are spread even
10 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
thinner when they must begin the evacuation of downstream areas. No dam
failures will occur in this particular earthquake.
Thursday 10:33 a.m. (… 33 minutes after the quake began…)
A magnitude 7.0 aftershock begins near the Salton Sea and ruptures to the south.
Luckily, this is a relatively unpopulated area. Shaking and its effects are felt throughout Imperial and
San Diego Counties, as well as in Mexicali, Mexico.
Damage to a dam in San Diego County requires an
evacuation. Teams of firefighters from San Diego
County had been getting ready to come north to help
with the initial earthquake’s aftermath, but are now
diverted to respond to the strong aftershock affecting their own county.
Thursday 12:00 noon (…2 hours after the quake
began…)
Smaller fires are merging into larger fires in parts of
the region where shaking was high and wood buildings
are in close proximity. World and national news coverage is focused on urban Los Angeles, especially on a
few collapsed buildings. This media focus makes the
damage seem even worse than it is, and also more localized. It will be several days
before a clear picture emerges of damage around the region.
Fire departments in Arizona and the San Francisco Bay area start to mobilize, but
mutual aid is hindered because so many roads into the affected region are impassable. By now, some hospitals are beginning to receive and treat the injured, but
with routes and communications disrupted, ambulances struggle to reach victims
and get them to hospitals.
November 14, 2008
Friday 03:17 a.m. (… 17+ hours after the quake began…)
A magnitude 7.2 aftershock begins near San Bernardino and ruptures west
along the base of the San Gabriel Mountains. This
earthquake is considerably larger than 1994’s
magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake, which killed 33
people and cost more than $40 billion. The rupture
stops 18 miles east of Pasadena, near Monrovia. The
location and size of this earthquake are devastating
to the already-weakened infrastructure and
overextended emergency response resources. The
aftershock triggers damaging aftershocks of its own.
Friday 07:00 a.m. (… 21 hours after the quake
began…)
By now, a Presidential Disaster Declaration has been
issued, and Federal resources have been committed.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),
the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative 11
(OES), and Operational Areas for emergency management have set up a Joint Incident
Command Center. Communications remain difficult. Ham radio operators begin to assist
official responders.
Since first hearing about the earthquake, people outside southern California have
been trying to reach family and friends here. Very
few have succeeded.
Friday 09:02 a.m. (…23+ hours after the quake
began…)
A magnitude 5.6 aftershock rattles residential areas in
Rancho Cucamonga. This is a bit bigger than the 1990
Upland earthquake that caused more than $10 million in
damage.
Friday 10:00 a.m. (…24 hours after the quake
began…)
Utility companies are working around the clock to
restore services, yet most people in the areas of
heaviest shaking lack electricity, natural gas, and
water. Utility workers, like transportation crews, medical staff, and emergency
responders, push themselves to do their crucial jobs despite concerns about their
own families.
Donations of money, services, and material are arriving from all parts of the United States, and a few
Red Cross shelters have opened at public schools and
undamaged recreation centers, where food, water,
and personnel are available. Most people, particularly
in heavily damaged areas, are camped outside.
By now, most stranded motorists have been rescued, and
some families are at last reuniting. To get around, emergency responders are using helicopters and any other
means of transportation that works, while residents are
using bicycles and four-wheel-drive vehicles.
November 15, 2008
Saturday 11:32 p.m. (… 2+ days after the quake began…)
A magnitude 5.7 aftershock occurs with an epicenter in Rialto. This is as large as the
1991 Sierra Madre earthquake that killed one person and caused $40 million in damage.
Fear of looting far exceeds the reality, yet by now many fearful rumors are circulating. Despite official assurances to the contrary, concern grows that if dead
bodies are not recovered and transported away, they will cause disease outbreaks.
Some are convinced that earthquake scientists are hiding knowledge that an even
bigger earthquake is imminent.
12 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
November 16, 2008 (… 3 days after the quake began…)
It is getting easier for people outside southern California to make contact
with friends and family here. Urban search and rescue teams continue to make
rescues, but at a declining rate. Firefighters have
extinguished most of the major fires, except
where some conflagrations have merged into
super-conflagrations—monster fires that consume
everything for hundreds of blocks.
Many medical staff members have worked without sleep since they first began responding to the
disaster. Seriously damaged hospitals have been
evacuated, and open-air trauma centers have been
set up in adjacent areas. There is a very short supply of medical equipment such as kidney dialysis
machines. Some patients are being med-evacuated
outside the region, to hospitals in Nevada, Arizona,
and other parts of California. Undamaged hospitals
have an influx of earthquake victims with crush
injuries, broken bones, and trauma. This increased
patient load is not distributed evenly, and some
undamaged hospitals are dramatically overloaded, while others receive few
patients.
By now, Red Cross shelters have been set up throughout the accessible parts of
the affected areas. The donation and distribution of money, services, and material
have intensified, yet unmet needs are widespread. A
coordinated effort among local, State, and Federal
government agencies is starting to bring water and
food into the region. Our “just in time” economy does
not stockpile goods in warehouses.
The National Guard has been mobilized to handle specialized, earthquake-related law enforcement duties,
allowing local law enforcement to return to regular
duties. The fear of looting, intensified by media
emphasis, begins to abate. Police and security personnel maintain cordons around sites of building collapse,
but tenants and owners are allowed to reenter certain
other damaged buildings on a very limited basis.
Mid-December, 2008
(…About a month later…)
By now, most gas and electric services have been restored, even in the heavily damaged
areas closest to the San Andreas Fault. Landfills store millions of tons of fresh debris.
Most of the major roads have reopened, but they are lined with heaps of debris. Small
bridges that went down or remain damaged are keeping many local roads closed. Some
freeways also remain closed for repairs, where bridge retrofitting prevented collapse
but not all damage. Many commuters who work far from home are unable (and some are
The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative 13
unwilling) to be back at work regularly. Tens of thousands of people are still without
permanent shelter or jobs—or both—because their
buildings sustained so much damage.
In the areas where shaking was not severe, most of the
water service has been restored, although even in those
areas a few communities continue to repair their water
systems. Most people with running tap water have been
warned to boil their water, because of confirmed or
possible contamination due to cracks in the water conveyance system, particularly in areas where the sewer
system also incurred damage. It will take a year or more
for all the water systems to be certified as safe.
In scattered areas throughout southern California,
people still cannot flush toilets because of damage to
sewer pipes. Plenty of water is stored in the ground
and in reservoirs, but near the fault it is not reaching some homes, schools, and businesses that need it.
By now, many of these communities have determined
that it will be cheaper and faster to replace rather than hunt for and repair every
break in their water systems. So many communities have placed orders for pipes
and connectors that the orders are heavily backlogged and there is debate about
whose orders should receive priority.
A magnitude 6 aftershock with an epicenter in Cajon Pass offsets restored rail
lines and disrupts the movement of goods from the ports once again.
In places without serious structural damage and with water service, businesses
have reopened and are trying to get back to normal. Most had not secured their
computers, their stock, or their files, or had these resources destroyed when
unsecured water pipes broke. The few businesses with earthquake insurance now
have the capital to move forward. Other businesses
that survived the earthquake with little damage are
nonetheless struggling because suppliers have not
reopened or customers and employees are unable to
reach them easily. Manufacturing plants that have
resumed production are facing delays and additional
costs to transport goods out of the region; some of
their customers are considering other options.
Some residents have left the region to stay with
family or friends, due to damage to schools and
homes, or loss of jobs. At this point, most still expect
to return.
Almost all the public K-12 schools and community
colleges have reopened. Only a few of their buildings
suffered structural damage, because they have special
construction and inspection standards, regulated by
the Field Act. In these schools, most of the nonstructural damage has been cleared,
although undamaged furniture, equipment, and supplies are at a premium in many
places. Class sizes are smaller where families have relocated to less damaged areas
or are keeping kids at home. Not all teachers are back on the job.
14 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
Universities and private schools are not protected by the Field Act. Many have
buildings that have not been retrofitted and thus have incurred significant damage.
Some university students have now transferred outside the region.
May, 2009 (…6 months later…)
Water is back in faucets, sinks, and air conditioning
units across the region, but it is too late for many
businesses, especially smaller businesses that lacked
the resources to wait out the bad times.
Businesses forced to close have a domino effect, and
as the chances diminish for regaining jobs or finding new ones, more and more people are struggling to
rebuild their lives.
By now, some faith communities have been forced to
disband, due to severely damaged buildings and dwindling congregations.
Competition for building materials and construction crews is fierce. In communities that had been proactive in disaster planning,
rebuilding is well underway. Other communities are still grappling with the complicated procedures and paperwork needed to launch
post-disaster reconstruction.
Scattered around the region, there are multifamily
residences that remain uninhabitable, with tenants
still living outdoors.
Financial institutions face a growing number of loans
in default, as businesses fail and individuals give up on
recouping their losses.
November, 2010 (… 2 years later…)
Has this earthquake caused a disaster or a catastrophe?
Are things looking up? Is life getting back to normal
for most people? Have most residents returned to
their homes? Have most lifestyles and businesses
resumed?
or
Are things still going badly? Has recovery faltered? Have the systems that
support life in southern California been too severely damaged? How many
people have found their lives unbearably difficult since the earthquake struck?
How many people have lost what matters most to them?
Southern Californians have the opportunity to work together to write this ending.
In fact, by intention or not, they are writing this ending every day, through the
decisions they make—or don’t make—to get ready for earthquakes.
How Do We Write the Ending? 15
How Do We Write the Ending?
A major earthquake in southern California is inevitable,
and it will be a regional disaster. Thousands of square miles
will suffer heavy shaking, tens of thousands of people will be
injured, hundreds of thousands of buildings will be damaged,
and millions of lives and businesses will be disrupted. Whether
or not the disaster becomes a catastrophe—an event that permanently changes the nature of life in southern California—
will depend on the choices that every person makes between
now and the day the earthquake occurs.
By examining the consequences of one hypothetical
earthquake and the dynamic interactions among elements
of our physical infrastructure and economic and social
systems, the ShakeOut Scenario is helping to identify
potential points of failure and places where relatively small
efforts or investments before the next earthquake could
yield tremendous benefit after the earthquake. Perhaps the
biggest lesson of the ShakeOut Scenario is that our individual and collective decisions intertwine. The future vitality of southern California depends on the sum of personal
decisions regarding earthquake preparedness and resiliency.
The sum includes everyone—tenants and building owners,
students and retirees, corporations and corner businesses,
individuals and groups, neighborhoods, and governments.
Some efforts can be made immediately, such as storing
water and protecting families; some efforts will take time,
such as increasing volunteer preparedness and collaborative
planning; and some efforts will require money, such as retrofitting problem buildings or strengthening infrastructure.
DISTRIBUTION OF SHAKING INTENSITIES IN THE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE
Although an earthquake has only one
magnitude and epicenter, different
locations will experience different
shaking levels. The strongest
shaking occurs very near the fault
and dies off as seismic waves
travel away. Away from the fault,
natural basins filled with sediments
trap some waves and create
pockets of stronger shaking with
longer durations. Not every basin
traps waves in every earthquake.
Consequently, in the ShakeOut
earthquake, the San Fernando
Valley experiences relatively low
levels of shaking compared to
the Coachella, San Bernardino,
Antelope, and San Gabriel Valleys
and the East Los Angeles area.
The fault rupture modeled for the
ShakeOut Scenario extends along
200 miles of the southern San
Andreas Fault, so it would take this
section of fault about 100 seconds to
rupture. Ground shaking continues
as the waves move out, and from
the first fault motion near the Salton
Sea to the last strong shaking in
Ventura, the hypothetical magnitude
7.8 ShakeOut Scenario earthquake
would shake southern California for
more than 3 minutes. At most sites,
strong shaking would last about 15
seconds, but in the basins strong
shaking would continue for as much
as a minute as the earthquake
waves reverberate.
16 The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing
These and many more steps can be taken, starting now, to
protect all southern Californians from the earthquake disasters that are certain to come.
The USGS developed the ShakeOut Scenario at the
request of community leaders and emergency responders
who said that this was the kind of science they needed to
improve southern California’s earthquake resiliency. Through
this and upcoming projects, the USGS and its partners are
continuing to evolve the way that hazard science is done, to
help protect all of us from natural disasters.
DISASTER OR CATASTROPHE?
Under normal conditions (blue line), the economic activity in a
region will gradually grow with time. When a disaster strikes
(red line), assets are lost and many businesses shut down.
As power and water service are restored, some businesses
reopen, and an influx of insurance payouts and government
assistance is used to hire contractors. This can lead to a rapid
regeneration of economic activity and a return to economic
health within a couple of years (orange line). To an economist, a
disaster becomes a catastrophe (purple line) when the regional
economy suffers a breakdown in resilency and sinks into a
depression that could last decades. To a sociologist, a disaster
becomes a catastrophe when social, economic, and political
systems suffer severe disruptions.
Additional Information
The ShakeOut Scenario (U.S. Geological Survey Open-File
Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/)
Forecasting California’s Earthquakes—What Can We Expect
in the Next 30 Years? (U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet
2008-3027; http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/)
Prepare
Now to Ensure a Better
Outcome!!!
http://urbanearth.usgs.gov/
http://www.daretoprepare.org/
Photographs in The ShakeOut Scenario Narrative (in order of appearance)—
Trucks on freeway: courtesy Port of Long Beach; Los Angeles cityscape: copyright
by and courtesy of Erik Arnesen; Back to school after Hurricane Katrina: courtesy
FEMA; Loma Prieta quake damage Salinas: USGS by J.C. Tinsley; Crushed bikes
Loma Prieta quake: USGS by C.E. Meyer; Kitchen damage Northridge quake:
USGS; Broken gas meter, Watsonville, Loma Prieta quake: USGS by H.G. Wilshire;
Damaged apartment, Northridge quake: courtesy FEMA; 2007 Peru quake victims:
copyright and by Michael Mullady; LA Structure fire: courtesy Los Angeles County
Fire Department by Capt. Larry Collins; LA firefighter being interviewed: copyright
and by Troy Case, courtesy of Los Angeles County Fire Department; Nighttime fire:
courtesy Los Angeles County Fire Department by Capt. Larry Collins; Helicopter,
Northridge quake: courtesy FEMA; Northridge quake victims with tent: courtesy
FEMA; Firefighter with chainsaw: courtesy Los Angeles County Fire Department by
Capt. Larry Collins; Red Cross trucks: courtesy FEMA; Loma Prieta quake damage:
USGS by C.E. Meyer; Red-tag sign Loma Prieta quake: USGS by John Nakata; Bankowned sign: USGS by Dale Cox.
All Californians live in earthquake country and
should therefore be prepared. Information in English
and Spanish on earthquakes in southern California
and how to prepare for them can be found in Putting
Down Roots in Earthquake Country (Echando Raíces
en Tierra de Terremotos), available at http://www.
earthquakecountry.info/roots/.
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Perry and others—The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing—Circular 1324 / CGS Special Report 207
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