Thank you for the opportunity to help you with your question!
In answer to your question, yes the treasury yield curve could be used to forecast the US recession curve. Much like a supply and demand curve you want the curve to be balanced and stable and achieving a balance. Technical analysis and a deeper look at the stock market could give some indication because the stock market yield can also give a person some idea of the stability of businesses but not necessarily an economic recession the stock market gives a snapshot of the stability of businesses.
Please let me know if you need any clarification. I'm always happy to answer your questions.
Sep 29th, 2015
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