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Aberystwyth University Forecasting Models for The Rate of Inflation Analysis
Experiential Learning - Forecasting models for the rate of inflation Data The variable PCEP is the price index for per ...
Aberystwyth University Forecasting Models for The Rate of Inflation Analysis
Experiential Learning - Forecasting models for the rate of inflation Data The variable PCEP is the price index for personal consumption expenditures from the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). In this hands-on exercise you will construct forecasting models for the rate of inflation, based on PCEP. For this analysis, use the sample period 1963:Q1–2012:Q4 (where data before 1963 may be used, as necessary, as initial values for lags in regressions). Use the QLR test with 15% trimming to test the stability of the coefficients in the AR(2) model for “the change in inflation” . Is the AR(2) model stable? Explain. Compute the (annualized) inflation rate,Plot the value of Infl from 1963:Q1 through 2012:Q4. Based on the plot, do you think that Infl has a stochastic trend? Explain. Double click in the table below to access to the excel table. Yes, It’s going upward before 1980 and going down afterwards. Its randomly determined. Compute the first four autocorrelations of Plot the value of Infl from 1963:Q1 through 2012:Q4. The plot should look “choppy” or “jagged.”Explain why this behavior is consistent with the first autocorrelation that you computed in part (i) for . Infl 0.823-0.2860.748-0.4420.7190.0920.661-0.00 Compute Run an OLS regression of on . Does knowing the change in inflation this quarter help predict the change in inflation next quarter? Explain.Estimate an AR(2) model for Infl. Is the AR(2) model better than an AR(1) model? Explain.Estimate an AR(p) model for . What lag length is chosen by BIC? What lag length is chosen by AIC?Use the AR(2) model to predict “the change in inflation from 2012:Q4 to 2013:Q1”-that is, predict the value of Use the AR(2) model to predict “the level of the inflation rate” in 2013:Q1—that is, . Use the ADF test for the regression in Equation (14.31) with two lags of to test for a stochastic trend in .Is the ADF test based on Equation (14.31) preferred to the test based on Equation (14.32) for testing for stochastic trend in ? Explain.In (i) you used two lags of . Should you use more lags? Fewer lags? Explain.Based on the test you carried out in (i), does the AR model for contain a unit root? Explain carefully. (Hint: Does the failure to reject a null hypothesis mean that the null hypothesis is true?) Using the AR(2) model for with a sample period that begins in 1963:Q1, compute pseudo out-of-sample forecasts for the change in inflation beginning in 2003:Q1 and going through 2012:Q4. That is, compute:Are the pseudo out-of-sample forecasts biased?That is, do the forecast errors have a nonzero mean?How large is the RMSFE of the pseudo out-of-sample forecasts? Is this consistent with the AR(2) model for estimated over the 1963:Q1–2002:Q4 sample period?There is a large outlier in 2008:Q4. Why did inflation fall so much in 2008:Q4? (Hint: Collect some data on oil prices. What happened to oil prices during 2008?)
Ashford University Week 4 Mathematics Questions
There are five parts to this discussion: Read, identify three different variable pairs, create table, create graph, descri ...
Ashford University Week 4 Mathematics Questions
There are five parts to this discussion: Read, identify three different variable pairs, create table, create graph, describe in words.
Prepare: Prior to beginning work on this discussion, read Chapter 9: Modeling Our World and Chapter 10: Modeling with Geometry in your course text, especially pages 532-3 & 536-9.
For this discussion, identify three different variable pairs in which two quantities appear to be related from either recent news stories, the web, or that you encounter in your everyday life. Each variable pair should come from a different source (as illustrated in the week 4 Discussion Sample) and there should be three sets of paired variables total.
Important note: Only one of the variables can use “time” as an independent variable. For example, you cannot have your variable pairs be (time, dependent variable 1), (time, dependent variable 2) and (time, dependent variable 3). However, you can have your variable pairs be (time, dependent variable 1), (independent variable 2, dependent variable 2) and (independent variable 3, dependent variable 3).
For inspiration, use the examples listed in the solution to Example 1 on p. 537 of the text, or the Week 4 Discussion Sample download, MAT205.W4.DiscussionSample.pdf. Be sure to select different examples!
Create Table
After you have identified three different variable pairs (from distinct sources), make a table of between 10 and 20 entries of data values for each of your variable pairs.
Create Graph
Then, graph your data values for each variable pair and describe in words the function that relates the variables. For each pair, write down at least five (5) points on the graph. Draw the graph using paper & pencil or use an online graphing calculator like Desmos Graphing Calculator (Links to an external site.).
Describe Your Results in Words
For each of the pairs you listed, identify the dependent and independent variables and briefly describe the relationship.
The Easy Way to Plot and Graph Points
Use the Desmos Graphing Calculator (Links to an external site.): (You need not create an account.)
Click on the “+” at the top left corner.
Select “table” from the drop-down menu.
Type in your points. If your point is (2, 30), then x1 is 2 and y1 is 30.
** If your points contain any values beyond ±10, click the minus sign in the upper right-hand corner a few times to zoom out so you can see the points. **
To add a line connecting the points:
Click and hold on the circle with four dots on it (next to y1). Click the circle next to “Lines” to show the connecting line. Your graph is done.
To share the graph, take a screenshot. [This site will show you how: http://www.take-a-screenshot.org/ (Links to an external site.). Click on the tab for Mac or Windows at the top, if needed.] Alternatively, click on the arrow in a box at the upper right hand corner of the screen, then you can “Export Image” as a .png file (it appears in your “Downloads” folder) and attach this to your discussion post or drop and drag into a Word file.
Geometric Sequences and Series
Find the next two terms in the geometric sequence shown below.5, 15, 45, …75, 105135, 40555, 65675, 30375Find the next t ...
Geometric Sequences and Series
Find the next two terms in the geometric sequence shown below.5, 15, 45, …75, 105135, 40555, 65675, 30375Find the next two terms in the geometric sequence shown below.16, 8, 4, …2, 11, 02, ½0,-4Find three geometric means between 9 and 144.42.75, 76.5, 110.252304, 36864, 58982418, 36, 7227, 81, 243Write an equation for the nth term in the sequence.200, 50, 12.5…A. an = 200 • 4n - 1B. an = 200 • (-4)n - 1C. an = 200 • (-1/4)n - 1D. an = 200 • (1/4)n - 1Find the 15th term in the geometric sequence shown below.1, 3, 9,...478296914348907431594323Find the sum for the geometric series shown below.198.437596.875196.875396.875Find the sum for the geometric series shown below.126124252254If S6 = 189 and r = 2, what is a1?9633/2If S8 = 1530 and r = 2, what is a1?36912A portion of John’s parental family tree is shown below. Find a rule for the number of people in the nth generation.A. An = 2(2)n - 1B. An = 1(2)n - 1C. An = 2(2)nD. An = 1(2)n
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scienti
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scientific notation and prope ...
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scienti
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scientific notation and properties of exponents?(4.2 × 10^8)(3.6 × 10^-4)A. (4.2 × 3.6)(10^8 + 10^-4)B. (4.2 + 3.6)(10^8 × 10^-4)C. (4.2 + 3.6)(10^8 + 10^-4)D. (4.2 × 3.6)(10^8 × 10^-4)
6 pages
Statistical Data Analysis
Microsoft excel was used to analyze the data set and descriptive statistics was used to evaluate the individual statistica ...
Statistical Data Analysis
Microsoft excel was used to analyze the data set and descriptive statistics was used to evaluate the individual statistical parameters foe the summary ...
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Aberystwyth University Forecasting Models for The Rate of Inflation Analysis
Experiential Learning - Forecasting models for the rate of inflation Data The variable PCEP is the price index for per ...
Aberystwyth University Forecasting Models for The Rate of Inflation Analysis
Experiential Learning - Forecasting models for the rate of inflation Data The variable PCEP is the price index for personal consumption expenditures from the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). In this hands-on exercise you will construct forecasting models for the rate of inflation, based on PCEP. For this analysis, use the sample period 1963:Q1–2012:Q4 (where data before 1963 may be used, as necessary, as initial values for lags in regressions). Use the QLR test with 15% trimming to test the stability of the coefficients in the AR(2) model for “the change in inflation” . Is the AR(2) model stable? Explain. Compute the (annualized) inflation rate,Plot the value of Infl from 1963:Q1 through 2012:Q4. Based on the plot, do you think that Infl has a stochastic trend? Explain. Double click in the table below to access to the excel table. Yes, It’s going upward before 1980 and going down afterwards. Its randomly determined. Compute the first four autocorrelations of Plot the value of Infl from 1963:Q1 through 2012:Q4. The plot should look “choppy” or “jagged.”Explain why this behavior is consistent with the first autocorrelation that you computed in part (i) for . Infl 0.823-0.2860.748-0.4420.7190.0920.661-0.00 Compute Run an OLS regression of on . Does knowing the change in inflation this quarter help predict the change in inflation next quarter? Explain.Estimate an AR(2) model for Infl. Is the AR(2) model better than an AR(1) model? Explain.Estimate an AR(p) model for . What lag length is chosen by BIC? What lag length is chosen by AIC?Use the AR(2) model to predict “the change in inflation from 2012:Q4 to 2013:Q1”-that is, predict the value of Use the AR(2) model to predict “the level of the inflation rate” in 2013:Q1—that is, . Use the ADF test for the regression in Equation (14.31) with two lags of to test for a stochastic trend in .Is the ADF test based on Equation (14.31) preferred to the test based on Equation (14.32) for testing for stochastic trend in ? Explain.In (i) you used two lags of . Should you use more lags? Fewer lags? Explain.Based on the test you carried out in (i), does the AR model for contain a unit root? Explain carefully. (Hint: Does the failure to reject a null hypothesis mean that the null hypothesis is true?) Using the AR(2) model for with a sample period that begins in 1963:Q1, compute pseudo out-of-sample forecasts for the change in inflation beginning in 2003:Q1 and going through 2012:Q4. That is, compute:Are the pseudo out-of-sample forecasts biased?That is, do the forecast errors have a nonzero mean?How large is the RMSFE of the pseudo out-of-sample forecasts? Is this consistent with the AR(2) model for estimated over the 1963:Q1–2002:Q4 sample period?There is a large outlier in 2008:Q4. Why did inflation fall so much in 2008:Q4? (Hint: Collect some data on oil prices. What happened to oil prices during 2008?)
Ashford University Week 4 Mathematics Questions
There are five parts to this discussion: Read, identify three different variable pairs, create table, create graph, descri ...
Ashford University Week 4 Mathematics Questions
There are five parts to this discussion: Read, identify three different variable pairs, create table, create graph, describe in words.
Prepare: Prior to beginning work on this discussion, read Chapter 9: Modeling Our World and Chapter 10: Modeling with Geometry in your course text, especially pages 532-3 & 536-9.
For this discussion, identify three different variable pairs in which two quantities appear to be related from either recent news stories, the web, or that you encounter in your everyday life. Each variable pair should come from a different source (as illustrated in the week 4 Discussion Sample) and there should be three sets of paired variables total.
Important note: Only one of the variables can use “time” as an independent variable. For example, you cannot have your variable pairs be (time, dependent variable 1), (time, dependent variable 2) and (time, dependent variable 3). However, you can have your variable pairs be (time, dependent variable 1), (independent variable 2, dependent variable 2) and (independent variable 3, dependent variable 3).
For inspiration, use the examples listed in the solution to Example 1 on p. 537 of the text, or the Week 4 Discussion Sample download, MAT205.W4.DiscussionSample.pdf. Be sure to select different examples!
Create Table
After you have identified three different variable pairs (from distinct sources), make a table of between 10 and 20 entries of data values for each of your variable pairs.
Create Graph
Then, graph your data values for each variable pair and describe in words the function that relates the variables. For each pair, write down at least five (5) points on the graph. Draw the graph using paper & pencil or use an online graphing calculator like Desmos Graphing Calculator (Links to an external site.).
Describe Your Results in Words
For each of the pairs you listed, identify the dependent and independent variables and briefly describe the relationship.
The Easy Way to Plot and Graph Points
Use the Desmos Graphing Calculator (Links to an external site.): (You need not create an account.)
Click on the “+” at the top left corner.
Select “table” from the drop-down menu.
Type in your points. If your point is (2, 30), then x1 is 2 and y1 is 30.
** If your points contain any values beyond ±10, click the minus sign in the upper right-hand corner a few times to zoom out so you can see the points. **
To add a line connecting the points:
Click and hold on the circle with four dots on it (next to y1). Click the circle next to “Lines” to show the connecting line. Your graph is done.
To share the graph, take a screenshot. [This site will show you how: http://www.take-a-screenshot.org/ (Links to an external site.). Click on the tab for Mac or Windows at the top, if needed.] Alternatively, click on the arrow in a box at the upper right hand corner of the screen, then you can “Export Image” as a .png file (it appears in your “Downloads” folder) and attach this to your discussion post or drop and drag into a Word file.
Geometric Sequences and Series
Find the next two terms in the geometric sequence shown below.5, 15, 45, …75, 105135, 40555, 65675, 30375Find the next t ...
Geometric Sequences and Series
Find the next two terms in the geometric sequence shown below.5, 15, 45, …75, 105135, 40555, 65675, 30375Find the next two terms in the geometric sequence shown below.16, 8, 4, …2, 11, 02, ½0,-4Find three geometric means between 9 and 144.42.75, 76.5, 110.252304, 36864, 58982418, 36, 7227, 81, 243Write an equation for the nth term in the sequence.200, 50, 12.5…A. an = 200 • 4n - 1B. an = 200 • (-4)n - 1C. an = 200 • (-1/4)n - 1D. an = 200 • (1/4)n - 1Find the 15th term in the geometric sequence shown below.1, 3, 9,...478296914348907431594323Find the sum for the geometric series shown below.198.437596.875196.875396.875Find the sum for the geometric series shown below.126124252254If S6 = 189 and r = 2, what is a1?9633/2If S8 = 1530 and r = 2, what is a1?36912A portion of John’s parental family tree is shown below. Find a rule for the number of people in the nth generation.A. An = 2(2)n - 1B. An = 1(2)n - 1C. An = 2(2)nD. An = 1(2)n
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scienti
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scientific notation and prope ...
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scienti
Which of the following shows the correct first step when multiplying the numbers below using scientific notation and properties of exponents?(4.2 × 10^8)(3.6 × 10^-4)A. (4.2 × 3.6)(10^8 + 10^-4)B. (4.2 + 3.6)(10^8 × 10^-4)C. (4.2 + 3.6)(10^8 + 10^-4)D. (4.2 × 3.6)(10^8 × 10^-4)
6 pages
Statistical Data Analysis
Microsoft excel was used to analyze the data set and descriptive statistics was used to evaluate the individual statistica ...
Statistical Data Analysis
Microsoft excel was used to analyze the data set and descriptive statistics was used to evaluate the individual statistical parameters foe the summary ...
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