Case Study #2: Changing Ethnic Composition in the United States Population Growth in the United States Demographic projections reveal that the United States is growing much faster than other developed countries. This is true even when compared with countries where immigration accounts for proportion- ally much higher growth than in the United States; for example, Australia (3-fold higher immigration), Canada (2.3-fold higher). US growth projections for the 80 year period 1970–2050 reveal a more than doubling of population size, culminating in 439 million people by mid-century. For 2008 to 2050, the increase is 44%, compared to 32% for Australia, 26% each for Canada and the United Kingdom, 13% for France, 12% for Sweden, and 3% for Italy. During this period, the populations of Spain, Germany, Russia and Japan are projected to decline by 6%, 13%, 22%, and 25% respectively, all (by definition) below zero population growth (ZPG). As a whole, developed countries will average only 5% growth during this 42 year period, compared with 47% for less developed countries, and 109% for a category of least developed countries (as defined by the United Nations). The net population growth for the world is an enormous 39%, representing a 2.5 billion more people for this period; but this is smaller proportionally than the projected increase of the US population (44%). What Are the Trends in Make-up of the US Population? The United States is becoming increasingly more racially and ethnically diverse (Table 5-4). By 2008, 10% of US counties had achieved what is referred to as “majority-minority” status: in other words, in these counties, nonwhites are now in the majority. And minorities in 2008 comprised at least 50% of the youth population among 1 in 7 counties. This is clearly a “cohort phenomenon”: older populations are less diverse than the progressively younger ones replacing them. By 2040, approximately half the US population will be nonwhite; beyond that year, the majority will be nonwhite. TABLE 5-4 Percent of US population by race and ethnicity—from 2007 to 2039 2007 2039 300 MILLION White Alone 400 MILLION 66 51 Black or African American 12 Alone 12 Asian, Native Hawaiian, 5 and Other Pacific Islanders Alone 7 American Indian Alaska Native Alone and 1 1 Two or More Races 1 3 Hispanic of any race 15 26 Total 100 100 Why Is This Happening? This reflects two major phenomena: migration patterns (mostly in the past) and differential fertility rates across racial and ethnic groups. The future population is mostly determined by the fertility of present population groups; and fertility rates are much higher for Hispanics and people of mixed race, resulting in a steadily more diverse population. What Are Some of the Implications? The emergence of a more racially and ethnically diverse population in a society, while enriching it culturally, poses significant challenges to the status quo in virtually every domain, from the adequacy of political representation (all levels from local to state and federal) to access to opportunity in education, employment, health, and housing. And race and ethnicity are only two of the domains by which diversity is assessed; in addition, there is increasing diversity in relation to religious expression, sexual orientation, and so on. In each domain are found differences of opinion, vested interests, new opportunities, and potential for conflict. Demographic analyses, therefore, such as presented, serve as a useful point of departure from which one may address the extent to which the principles upon which a nation is founded, or upholds, are actually observed in its operations, from its leadership and political practices to the conditions of everyday living. Are There Implications for Other Countries? Many other countries are also experiencing increasing diversity: some know it, some don’t, and some (possibly) don’t want to know. The underlying problem is that not all countries are collecting data that will enable them to generate the information needed to guide related policy development.Take Latin America for example: outside of Brazil, data on Afro descendants are scarce. Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay lack census data for their Afro- descendant populations; Costa Rica and Ecuador collected these statistics for the first time in 2000, and Honduras in 2001. Only a few countries regularly collect data on race in household surveys. Even where race and ethnic data are collected, they usually are not sufficient to measure progress toward health targets. For example, data on infant mortality, maternal mortality, and access to potable water are rarely dis-aggregated by race. Yet available data suggest that Afro-descendant and indigenous populations in Latin America are far more likely than citizens of European origin to live in poverty, be illiterate, die younger, reside in substandard housing, and suffer from police abuse. Most observers agree that racial discrimination is a major cause of these disparities, but more research is needed to differentiate the factors fostering these inequalities. 
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