Adas1 Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attacks Key Judgements • We assess that terrorists would attack Mumbai soon. • We assess that the attacks would likely be a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED). • We assess that terrorists would targets shopping centers, railway stations, embassies, and Indian Occupied Kashmir • We assess that Islamic terrorists sponsored by ISI and Sikhs of Khalistan movement would attack Mumbai to destabilize India. • We assess that attacks would result in a war between India and Pakistan destabilizing the strategic position of South Asia. We make all the of these with high confidence. Analysis We assess that terrorists would attack Mumbai soon. • The US intelligence agency CIA and Israel intelligence agency Mossed informed the Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and the Indian government about the attacks threats. • Severity in the independence movement of the Indian Occupied Kashmir and Khalistan can result in attacks in various cities of India including Mumbai and New Delhi We assess that the attacks would likely be a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED). • The US intelligence agency CIA warned the Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) that the terrorists could conduct vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks. • The terrorists can fix explosives in vehicles, and they can explode them in public places like shopping malls and plazas to kill hundreds of people in Mumbai. • The previous Mumbai attacks were similar when the terrorist attacked local trains for over one month consecutively. We assess that terrorists would target shopping centers, railway stations, embassies, and Indian Occupied Kashmir • The intelligence reports to the Indian government clearly illustrate that the terrorists would target shopping centers, railway stations, embassies, and Indian Occupied Kashmir • India Occupied Kashmir is the primary point of conflict between the Islamic Jihad groups and the Indian army troops. Adas2 • The recent attack in Pulwama in the Indian Occupied Kashmir is the most significant proof in this context. The terrorists attacked the forces of the Indian army using a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks strategy. • Likewise, the Indian government can conduct false flag attack like the one it did in Uri and then in Pulwama to attack Pakistan to win the election. • Moreover, the terrorists can attack the embassies of the Western nations to destabilize India’s relations with them. They can target important people of embassies and foreign offices in this regard as well. We assess that Islamic terrorists sponsored by ISI and Sikhs of Khalistan movement would attack Mumbai to destabilize India. • Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) conducts terrorist attacks in Pakistan and support Baloch liberation movement and other such activities to destabilize Pakistan. Therefore, the Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) does the same thing in India. It supports the Kashmir independence movement along with the Khalistan movement to destabilize India. • Likewise, Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) sponsors various terrorist attacks in India as if it sponsored the 2008 Mumbai attacks to destabilize the Indian government and establishment • Such form of cold war between the intelligence agencies of India and Pakistan is prevailing since their division or inception. Therefore, we cannot ignore the role of Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to support terrorist attacks in India especially in its big and economic cities like Mumbai. We assess that attacks would result in a war between India and Pakistan destabilizing the strategic position of South Asia. • Any terrorist attack in India or Pakistan compromises the stability of South Asia because both nations are sheer enemies of each other and they cannot bear such attacks. Any offense in India has a direct or indirect connection with Pakistan and vice versa. • Both the nations are nuclear powers, and a war between them would start WW3 because foreign powers like China, Russia, Israel, and the USA have stakes in these nations and they are bound to fight in such conditions. • In simple words, we can say that attacks would result into a war between India and Pakistan and it happened recently when Indian government made false flag attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir to kill its soldiers to as an election stunt and blames Pakistan for it. India imposed war on Pakistan and Pakistan defeated in on every platform. Brief Five Issue: The Chinese government's “Thousand Talents” Program Objective: Learn to collect information on your intelligence target. Learn by doing structured analysis of information and writing a bottom-line assessment of what the provided information tells you. You must employ key assumptions checks and quality of information checks in preparing your brief. Use analysis of competing hypotheses in your work. You must convincingly answer the key intelligence questions using analytic reason and evidence. Key intelligence questions: What are the Chinese government's most important goals with the Thousand Talents Program? What threat, if any, does the program pose to U.S. national security? Customer: The Director of FBI
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