AD685 DartMouth Quantitative Methods In Finance And Research Assignment

User Generated

Wraal_D

Economics

AD685

Dartmouth College

Description

  • Split the sample in 3 equal periods and compute the average, SD, skew, and kurtosis for each of the six “risk factors” for the full sample and the three different periods. Arrange these values in a table similar to the one shown below (5p).

Full Sample: 1963M07 - 2017M12

MKT_RF

SMB

HML

RMW

CMA

MOM

Mean

Std. Dev.

Skewness

Kurtosis

Observations

  • Do the statistics suggest to you that returns for those risk factors come from the same distribution over the entire period? (5p)
  • Make a plot showing the growth of $1 in each of the six “risk factors (portfolios)” over the full sample.(Recall, this is called an "equity curve"). (5p)

Unformatted Attachment Preview

AD685 – Term Paper Project Last Name, First Name: ID#: Part 1. Univariate Statistics. The data below was obtained from Professor Kenneth French's data library website: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html The table below contains monthly returns of the “Fama/French 5 Factors” and the monthly returns of the “Momentum factor” for the period from July 1963-December 2017 (654 months) DATE Mkt-RF SMB HML RMW CMA RF 196307 -0.39 -0.46 -0.81 0.72 -1.16 196308 5.07 -0.81 1.65 0.42 -0.4 196309 -1.57 -0.48 0.19 -0.8 0.23 196310 2.53 -1.29 -0.09 2.75 -2.26 196311 -0.85 -0.85 1.71 -0.34 2.22 196312 1.83 -1.87 -0.1 0.18 -0.31 196401 2.24 0.09 1.61 0.21 1.51 196402 1.54 0.3 2.82 0.04 0.87 • • • • • • 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.29 0.3 0.26 MOM 0.99 1.08 0.13 3.14 -0.75 1.7 1.06 0.25 RM-RF The return spread between the capitalization weighted stock market and cash. SMB The return spread of small minus large stocks (i.e., the size effect). HML The return spread of cheap minus expensive stocks (i.e., the value effect). RMW The return spread of the most profitable firms minus the least profitable. CMA The return spread of firms that invest conservatively minus aggressively. MOM The retun spread of firms with high prior return minus low prior return. 1. Split the sample in 3 equal periods and compute the average, SD, skew, and kurtosis for each of the six “risk factors” for the full sample and the three different periods. Arrange these values in a table similar to the one shown below (5p). Full Sample: 1963M07 - 2017M12 MKT_RF SMB HML RMW Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Observations CMA MOM First sub-sample: 1963M07 - 1981M08 MKT_RF SMB HML RMW CMA MOM Second sub-sample: 1981M09 - 1999M10 MKT_RF SMB HML RMW CMA MOM Third sub-sample: 1999M11 - 2017M12 MKT_RF SMB HML RMW CMA MOM Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Observations Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Observations Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Observations 2. Do the statistics suggest to you that returns for those risk factors come from the same distribution over the entire period? (5p) 3. Make a plot showing the growth of $1 in each of the six “risk factors (portfolios)” over the full sample. (Recall, this is called an "equity curve"). (5p) 4. Which factor portfolio gives the lowest and highest future value (full sample)? (5P) 5. Make a plot showing the growth of $1 in each of the six “risk factors (portfolios)” over the five year period (Jan 2013 – Dec 2017). (Recall, this is called an "equity curve"). (5p) 6. Which factor portfolio gives the lowest and highest future value? (sample: last five years) (5p) 7. Give a brief explanation of what are the real, macroeconomic, aggregate, nondiversifiable risk that are proxied by the returns of the [RM-RF], SMB, HML, RMW, CMA and MOM risk portfolios. For example, why are investors so concerned about holding stocks that do badly at the times that the HML (value less growth) and SMB (small-cap less large-cap) portfolios do badly, even though the market [RM-RF] does not fall? (5p) Part 2. Go to Yahoo! finance site. Please download monthly adj. close prices from 12/1/2012 to 12/1/2017 for S&P 500 index (^SP500TR) and the following funds: • • • • • European stock fund: Fidelity Europe (FIEUX) Latin America Fund: Fidelity Latin America (FLATX) Long-term bond fund: Fidelity Corporate Bond (FCBFX) Real Estate fund: T. Rowe Price Real Estate (TRREX) Small Cap Stock Fund: Fidelity Small Cap Stock (FSLCX) 1. Describe briefly the goal of each fund (5p) 2. Compute time plots of monthly prices and continuously compounded returns and comment (5p). Date P_SP 12/1/2012 1/1/2013 2/1/2013 3/1/2013 4/1/2013 5/1/2013 6/1/2013 7/1/2013 8/1/2013 P_FIEUX P_FLATX P_FCBFX P_TRREX P_FSLCX Date R_SP 12/1/2012 1/1/2013 2/1/2013 3/1/2013 4/1/2013 5/1/2013 6/1/2013 7/1/2013 8/1/2013 R_FIEUX R_FLATX R_FCBFX R_TRREX R_FSLCX a. Are there any unusually large or small returns? (5p) b. Can you identify any news events that may explain these unusual values? (5p) 3. Make a plot showing the growth of $1 in each of the funds over the five-year period (5p) c. Which fund gives the highest future value? (5p) d. Are you surprised? (5p) 4. Compute univariate descriptive statistics (mean, variance, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis) for each return series and comment. (5p) a. Which funds have the highest and lowest average return? (5p) b. Which funds have the highest and lowest standard deviation? (5p) c. Which funds look most and least normally distributed? (5p) 5. Using a monthly risk free rate equal to 0.04167% per month (which corresponds to a continuously compounded annual rate of 0.5%), compute Sharpe's slope/ratio for each fund. Arrange these values in a table from highest to lowest. Which asset has the highest Sharpe ratios? (5p) Sharpe Ratios (Monthly) The Sharpe Ratio measures excess return per unit of risk. The FSLCX fund has the highest Sharpe ratios and the FLATX fund has the lowest Sharpe ratios. 6. Compute estimated standard errors and form 95% confidence intervals for the estimates of the mean and standard deviation. Arrange these values in a table. (5p) Variable Count Mean Std. Dev. Std. Error of Mean Lower Limit Upper Limit d. Are these means and standard deviations estimated very precisely? (5p) e. Which estimates are more precise: the estimated means or standard deviations? (5p) 7. Convert the monthly sample means into annual estimates by multiplying by 12 and convert the monthly sample SDs into annual estimates by multiplying by the square root of 12. Comment on the values of these annual numbers. (5p) R_FIEUX R_FLATX R_FCBFX R_TRREX R_FSLCX Mean Std. Dev. a. Using these values, compute annualized Sharpe ratios. (5p) Annualized risk free = 0.5% Mean Std. Dev. Sharpe Ratio (Annualized) b. Are the asset rankings the same as with the monthly Sharpe ratios? (5p) 8. Compute and plot all pair-wise scatterplots between these 5 funds. Briefly comment on any relationships you see. (5p) Part 3. Estimating expected returns In this section, you need to use information from Part 1 and Part 2. Use the Fama-French 5-Factor model below to estimate the expected returns of each of the funds from part 2: 𝑒 𝑒 𝑅𝑖,𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝛽𝑖,𝑀 𝑅𝑀𝐾𝑇 + 𝛽𝑖,𝑆𝑀𝐵 𝑆𝑀𝐵𝑡 + 𝛽𝑖,𝐻𝑀𝐿 𝐻𝑀𝐿𝑡 + 𝛽𝑖,𝐻𝑀𝐿 𝑅𝑀𝑊𝑡 + 𝛽𝑖,𝐻𝑀𝐿 𝐶𝑀𝐴𝑡 + 𝑒𝑖,𝑡 o o o o o European stock fund: Fidelity Europe (FIEUX) Latin America Fund: Fidelity Latin America (FLATX) Long-term bond fund: Fidelity Corporate Bond (FCBFX) Real Estate fund: T. Rowe Price Real Estate (TRREX) Small Cap Stock Fund: Fidelity Small Cap Stock (FSLCX) 𝑒 To simplify notation in the regression notice that 𝑅𝑖,𝑡 = 𝑅𝑖,𝑡 − 𝑅𝐹,𝑡 = is stock or portfolio 𝑖 𝑡ℎ excess return 𝑒 and 𝑅𝑀𝐾𝑇 = 𝑅𝑀𝑡 − 𝑅𝐹,𝑡 = is the excess return on a “stock market portfolio” In order to do this follow 3 simple steps: 1. Step 1. Estimate the risk premia for each factor (5p) 2. Step 2. Estimate the sensitivities of the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ stock to each of those factors. (5p) 3. Step 3. The expected returns can be calculated by combining the results of the previous steps. (5p) 4. Which fund has the highest and lowest expected return? (5p) 5. Compare the factor betas and provide some comparisons between the two funds. (5p) Dependent Variable ER_FIEUX ER_FLATX ER_FCBFX ER_TRREX ER_FSLCX Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Fama-French 5-Factor model Variable C MKT_RF SMB HML RMW CMA R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression *Statistically significant. Part 4. Forecasting models for the rate of inflation Go to FRED’s website (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/) and download the data for: • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items (CPIAUCSL) - Seasonally adjusted – Monthly Frequency – From 1947:M1 to 2017:M12 In this hands-on exercise you will construct forecasting models for the rate of inflation, based on CPIAUCSL. For this analysis, use the sample period 1970:M01–2012:M12 (where data before 1970 should be used, as necessary, as initial values for lags in regressions). a. (i) Compute the (annualized) inflation rate. What are the units of 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙? (Is 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙 measured in dollars, percentage points, percentage per month, percentage per year, or something else? Explain.) DATE_M CPIAUCSLINFL 1947M01 1947M02 1947M03 1947M04 1947M05 1947M06 1947M07 1947M08 1947M09 (ii) Plot the value of 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙 from 1970:M01 through 2012:M12. Based on the plot, do you think that 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙 has a stochastic trend? Explain. (i) Compute the first twelve autocorrelations of (𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 Δ𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙) (ii) Plot the value of Δ𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙 from 1970:M01 through 2012:M12. The plot should look “choppy” or “jagged.” Explain why this behavior is consistent with the first autocorrelation that you computed in part (i) for Δ𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙. (i) Compute Run an OLS regression of 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑡 on 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑡−1. Does knowing the inflation this month help predict the inflation next month? Explain. b. c. (ii) Estimate an AR(2) model for 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙. Is the AR(2) model better than an AR(1) model? Explain. (iii) Estimate an AR(p) model for 𝑝 = 0, … ,8. What lag length is chosen by BIC? What lag length is chosen by AIC? (iv) Use the AR(2) model to predict “the level of the inflation rate” in 2013:M01—that is, 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙2013:𝑀01 . (i) Use the ADF test for the regression in Equation (14.31 SW) with two lags of 𝛥𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙 to test for a stochastic trend in 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙. (ii) Is the ADF test based on Equation (14.31 SW) preferred to the test based on Equation (14.32 SW) for testing for stochastic trend in 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙? Explain. (iii) In (i) you used two lags of 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙. Should you use more lags? Fewer lags? Explain. (iv) Based on the test you carried out in (i), does the AR model for 𝐼𝑛𝑓 contain a unit root? Explain carefully. (Hint: Does the failure to reject a null hypothesis mean that the null hypothesis is true?) d.
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Explanation & Answer

Although I did not receive any reply.I have answered Part 2 as per your request.Kindly let me know if other parts is to be answered.

This file was created by CMPT_ME_BEME_OP_INV_RETS using the 201903 CRSP database.
The 1-month TBill return is from Ibbotson and Associates Inc.

196307
196308
196309
196310
196311
196312
196401
196402
196403
196404
196405
196406
196407
196408
196409
196410
196411
196412
196501
196502
196503
196504
196505
196506
196507
196508
196509
196510
196511
196512
196601
196602
196603
196604
196605
196606
196607
196608
196609
196610
196611
196612

Mkt-RF
SMB
HML
RMW
CMA
RF
-0.39
-0.47
-0.83
0.66
-1.15
5.07
-0.79
1.67
0.39
-0.4
-1.57
-0.48
0.18
-0.76
0.24
2.53
-1.29
-0.1
2.75
-2.24
-0.85
-0.84
1.71
-0.45
2.22
1.83
-1.89
-0.12
0.08
-0.3
2.24
0.08
1.59
0.22
1.5
1.54
0.32
2.83
0.06
0.85
1.41
1.41
3.32
-2.01
2.93
0.1
-1.52
-0.55
-1.35
-1.08
1.42
-0.68
1.98
-0.26
0.24
1.27
0.09
0.68
-0.42
0.14
1.74
0.53
0.68
0.14
1.84
-1.44
0.3
0.09
0.06
0.36
2.69
-0.31
1.65
-0.48
0.58
0.59
0.88
1.14
-0.29
0.48
0
-0.27
-1.98
0.6
-0.16
0.03
-0.58
-2.55
1.13
-1.63
3.54
2.49
0.18
0.84
0.11
0.44
3.31
0.22
0.4
-0.69
-1.34
2.03
1.09
-0.3
0.73
3.11
1.18
0.71
0.26
-2.3
-0.77
0.06
-1.63
-0.37
0.7
-5.51
-4.3
0.55
0.12
0.41
1.43
1.07
2.18
-1.41
-0.02
2.73
2.72
-0.96
2.06
-0.76
2.86
0.62
-0.1
-0.82
0.82
2.6
3.43
1.52
1.22
-0.76
-0.03
5.19
0.21
-1.06
-0.9
1.01
2.65
1.95
-1.28
-0.45
0.72
4.72
3.49
-2.83
-0.07
-1.21
4.86
0.27
-0.15
-1.44
-2.51
0.22
-2.07
1.3
-0.01
2.14
3.38
-0.54
0.41
-0.91
-5.66
-5.19
-1.55
1.66
-1.52
-1.44
1.34
0.5
0.06
0.8
-1.63
-0.5
0.96
-0.45
1.78
-7.91
-3.03
0.47
0.05
0.77
-1.06
-1.19
0.53
-1.65
2.5
3.86
-6.53
2.87
-3.64
4.28
1.4
3.37
-4.46
4.17
-6.53
0.13
1.93
-1.22
0.68
-0.13

MOM
0.27
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.27
0.29
0.3
0.26
0.31
0.29
0.26
0.3
0.3
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.28
0.3
0.36
0.31
0.31
0.35
0.31
0.33
0.31
0.31
0.35
0.33
0.38
0.35
0.38
0.34
0.41
0.38
0.35
0.41
0.4
0.45
0.4
0.4

1
1.03
0.16
3.14
-0.75
1.7
1.06
0.24
0.72
-0.6
2.54
0.45
-0.37
-0.19
-0.39
0.08
1.08
-0.69
-1.28
0.3
0.1
2.54
0.54
-3.12
4.1
2.58
3.36
3.45
4.42
0.09
5.41
4.58
1.34
6.18
-4.69
3.28
-1.39
-2.11
-1.73
-5.13
5.73
1.07

196701
196702
196703
196704
196705
196706
196707
196708
196709
196710
196711
196712
196801
196802
196803
196804
196805
196806
196807
196808
196809
196810
196811
196812
196901
196902
196903
196904
196905
196906
196907
196908
196909
196910
196911
196912
197001
197002
197003
197004
197005
197006
197007
197008
197009
197010
197011

8.15
0.78
3.99
3.89
-4.33
2.41
4.58
-0.89
3.11
-3.09
0.37
3.05
-4.06
-3.75
0.2
9.05
2.28
0.69
-2.72
1.34
4.03
0.42
5.43
-3.94
-1.25
-5.84
2.64
1.46
-0.1
-7.18
-7
4.68
-2.98
5.06
-3.79
-2.63
-8.1
5.13
-1.06
-11
-6.92
-5.79
6.93
4.49
4.18
-2.28
4.59

9
3.03
1.91
0.46
2.37
6.47
3.48
0.76
2.46
0.46
-0.05
5.76
4.48
-2.92
-1.52
6.25
7.02
-0.28
-1.33
2.29
2.78
-0.42
2.41
3.6
-0.46
-4.12
-0.4
-0.82
-0.18
-5.49
-3.37
0.71
1.29
3.89
-2.41
-3.7
3.09
-2.58
-2.4
-6.3
-4.42
-2.17
-0.69
1.54
8.49
-4.5
-4

2.22
-2.17
0.31
-2.64
0.8
0.96
2.65
1.46
-2.47
-3.39
-1.71
-0.39
4.75
1.17
-0.59
-1.03
0.84
0.67
5.48
1
0.24
2.89
-0.9
0.02
1.69
0.9
-0.46
0.03
0.73
-1.09
1.42
-3.87
-3.19
-3.19
-1.12
-3.02
3.04
4.04
4.25
6.39
3.6
0.87
0.96
1.03
-5.58
0.27
1.63

0.62
1.94
0.9
2.43
-1.75
-0.64
0.51
0.42
0.22
0.81
1.29
-0.65
-4.58
-0.14
1.17
2.79
0.39
-1.33
-3
-0.6
-2.03
-1.28
0.45
-1.78
-1.56
2.18
-1.35
0.39
-0.98
4.26
1.4
1.16
3.42
0.01
1.44
2.47
-1.77
-2.28
-0.87
-0.64
-1.3
0.19
-0.07
0.57
0.24
1.83
1.75

-2.98
-0.94
-1.51
-3.75
1.61
-2.38
2.73
1.4
-0.96
-2.57
-2.29
0.04
6.45
2.48
-1.15
-3.66
-1.85
2.65
3.59
0.42
0.89
2.79
-2.5
1.66
1.38
0.79
-0.41
0.08
1.51
-1.53
1.97
-4.08
-0.83
-2.03
0.32
-2.04
3.92
3.06
4.43
5.88
3.62
2.9
1.9
-0.15
-5.93
2.38
1.59

0.43
0.36
0.39
0.32
0.33
0.27
0.31
0.31
0.32
0.39
0.36
0.33
0.4
0.39
0.38
0.43
0.45
0.43
0.48
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.42
0.43
0.53
0.46
0.46
0.53
0.48
0.51
0.53
0.5
0.62
0.6
0.52
0.64
0.6
0.62
0.57
0.5
0.53
0.58
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.46
0.46

-6.75
3.56
1.42
0.64
0.67
6.03
-1.07
-1.41
2.55
3.66
1.29
3.23
-4.64
-3.41
3.18
5.15
3.73
-1.92
-0.84
1.88
-0.67
-1.52
1.73
0.11
-0.15
-2.46
3.95
1.17
1.68
-2.22
1.64
2.13
2.53
-4.32
3.6
5.05
0.63
0.12
-0.29
-0.73
-2.73
5.78
-2.94
-6.5
-8.92
9.61
2.89

197012
197101
197102
197103
197104
197105
197106
197107
197108
197109
197110
197111
197112
197201
197202
197203
197204
197205
197206
197207
197208
197209
197210
197211
197212
197301
197302
197303
197304
197305
197306
197307
197308
197309
197310
197311
197312
197401
197402
197403
197404
197405
197406
197407
197408
197409
197410

5.72
4.84
1.41
4.13
3.15
-3.98
-0.1
-4.5
3.79
-0.85
-4.42
-0.46
8.71
2.49
2.87
0.63
0.29
1.25
-2.43
-0.8
3.26
-1.14
0.52
4.6
0.62
-3.29
-4.85
-1.3
-5.68
-2.94
-1.56
5.05
-3.82
4.75
-0.83
-12.75
0.61
-0.17
-0.47
-2.81
-5.29
-4.68
-2.83
-8.05
-9.35
-11.77
16.1

3.02
7.54
2.05
2.15
-0.37
-1.17
-1.45
-1.41
-0.18
0.19
-1.65
-2.9
3.27
6.33
0.96
-0.49
0.15
-3.15
-0.35
-2.74
-3.53
-2.25
-2.53
-0.53
-1.82
-2.79
-4.01
-2.31
-3
-5.98
-2.54
7.25
-1.75
3.54
-0.26
-7.25
-4.6
10.41
0.16
2.64
-0.63
-3.17
-0.02
1.99
0.3
1.46
-6.85

1.01
1.38
-1.29
-4.04
0.72
-1.38
-2.06
0.17
2.67
-2.96
-0.43
-1.7
-0.35
1.99
-2.76
-1.73
0.23
-2.69
-2.51
0.78
4.69
0.47
1.37
4.76
-2.27
2.68
1.7
2.78
5.69
0.21
1.44
-5.31
1.14
2.18
1.74
4.04
4.09
5.99
2.54
-0.11
1.06
-2.04
0.79
5.14
2.5
5.49
-9.99

0.14
-2.19
0.65
1.97
-1.56
1.46
1.52
0.48
-0.34
2.59
1.48
2.45
-0.43
-1.48
1.65
1.58
-0.59
2.33
1.75
1.08
-2.02
1.67
-0.12
-1.98
2.6
0.4
-0.34
-1.07
-1.63
2.02
-0.27
-0.1
-1.36
-2.3
-1.94
-2.71
-2.8
-3.01
-1.93
2.82
2.86
5.08
0.62
-3.26
-0.26
-4.28
-0.03

0.28
-0.14
-0.72
-2.69
0.72
0.3
-1.74
1.62
2.6
-1.56
-1.24
-0.36
-1.83
0.29
-0.52
-0.19
-0.89
-1.85
-0.36
-0.59
2.95
-1.98
-0.05
3.35
-2.2
0.92
-0.01
0.73
2.71
-1.79
0.22
-3.45
1.2
1.82
2.59
1.49
2.3
4.47
2.67
0.36
1.85
0
3.06
4.58
2.55
5.91
-2.94

0.42
0.38
0.33
0.3
0.28
0.29
0.37
0.4
0.47
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.29
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.3
0.29
0.31
0.29
0.34
0.4
0.37
0.37
0.44
0.41
0.46
0.52
0.51
0.51
0.64
0.7
0.68
0.65
0.56
0.64
0.63
0.58
0.56
0.75
0.75
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.81
0.51

-2.19
-6.71
0.81
-1.21
1.32
0.89
2.72
-2.37
3.51
2.09
0.46
1.48
-0.68
0.24
2.7
2.91
2.9
3.19
1.93
2.75
-5.34
1.75
0.75
-5.14
4.98
3.71
2.12
3.62
6.4
7.09
4.31
-11.69
3.42
-7.03
6.75
8.63
10.39
-8.82
0.14
-0.99
2
-0.26
2.37
3.01
3
4.32
-0.5

197411
197412
197501
197502
197503
197504
197505
197506
197507
197508
197509
197510
197511
197512
197601
197602
197603
197604
197605
197606
197607
197608
197609
197610
197611
197612
197701
197702
197703
197704
197705
197706
197707
197708
197709
197710
197711
197712
197801
197802
197803
197804
197805
197806
197807
197808
197809

-4.51
-3.45
13.66
5.56
2.66
4.23
5.19
4.83
-6.59
-2.85
-4.26
5.31
2.64
-1.6
12.16
0.32
2.32
-1.49
-1.34
4.05
-1.07
-0.56
2.07
-2.42
0.36
5.65
-4.05
-1.94
-1.37
0.15
-1.45
4.71
-1.69
-1.75
-0.27
-4.38
4
0.27
-6.01
-1.38
2.85
7.88
1.76
-1.69
5.11
3.75
-1.43

-1.44
-4.36
12.79
-0.65
3.98
-0.59
2.89
1.32
3.42
-2.79
0.02
-4.23
-1.07
-0.03
6.35
7.97
-1.34
0.14
-1.12
-1.13
0.62
-2.03
0.12
0.16
2.65
3.61
5.9
1.11
1.29
0.59
1.28
2.07
1.82
0.89
1.56
1.5
3.62
1.6
2.69
3.67
3.72
-0.31
4.56
1.59
0.15
4.93
-0.28

-0.16
0
8.44
-4.56
2.49
-1.11
-4.02
1.32
1.7
-0.9
0.34
0.3
1.99
1.76
8.58
5.78
-0.04
-0.06
-1.32
0.68
1.74
0.79
-0.29
-0.13
1.51
2.22
4.26
0.5
1.02
3.45
0.84
-0.64
-0.59
-2.79
-0.49
1.72
0.31
-0.37
3.31
0.76
1.2
-3.54
-0.62
0.59
-1.11
-0.46
1.87

-3.39
-0.65
-0.89
1.15
1.23
1.37
-1.05
-2.62
0.43
1.03
0.53
-0.46
-0.62
-0.12
-1.9
-2.58
-0.38
0.39
2.47
-0.59
-1.09
-0.46
0.99
-0.22
-1.39
-0.62
-0.53
-0.13
-0.32
-2.03
0.33
0.88
0.83
0.96
1.23
-0.3
-0.05
0.94
-1.67
0.36
-0.6
2.82
0.27
-1.44
1.58
1.39
-0.68

2.95
3.23
-0.86
-2.14
-1.25
-1.35
-0.61
1.06
1.19
-0.89
0.5
2.27
1.71
0.6
2.36
3.84
1.09
-1.1
-1.42
0.93
0.29
-0.59
-1.14
-0.31
0.08
2.23
1.93
-0.19
-0.09
1.16
0.11
-1.22
0.01
-0.62
-0.84
-0.46
0.65
-0.65
1.53
1.04
1.88
-1.35
0.36
-0.02
-0.78
0.42
1.8

0.54
0.7
0.58
0.43
0.41
0.44
0.44
0.41
0.48
0.48
0.53
0.56
0.41
0.48
0.47
0.34
0.4
0.42
0.37
0.43
0.47
0.42
0.44
0.41
0.4
0.4
0.36
0.35
0.38
0.38
0.37
0.4
0.42
0.44
0.43
0.49
0.5
0.49
0.49
0.46
0.53
0.54
0.51
0.54
0.56
0.56
0.62

2.17
2.95
-13.89
-0.55
-1.99
1.34
-0.47
0.06
0.42
-0.13
0.32
-0.14
-0.45
-0.12
4.46
0.36
0.19
0.5
-1.1
-0.42
-0.12
-0.85
0.24
-0.48
2.9
0.77
3.98
0.35
0.49
4.22
2.01
1.77
0.31
-1.78
2.06
-0.13
2.19
1.56
-0.72
1.9
1.37
0.85
2.85
2.78
4.22
2.82
-3.11

197810
197811
197812
197901
197902
197903
197904
197905
197906
197907
197908
197909
197910
197911
197912
198001
198002
198003
198004
198005
198006
198007
198008
198009
198010
198011
198012
198101
198102
198103
198104
198105
198106
198107
198108
198109
198110
198111
198112
198201
198202
198203
198204
198205
198206
198207
198208

-11.91
2.71
0.88
4.23
-3.56
5.68
-0.06
-2.21
3.85
0.82
5.53
-0.82
-8.1
5.21
1.79
5.51
-1.22
-12.9
3.97
5.26
3.06
6.49
1.8
2.19
1.06
9.59
-4.52
-5.04
0.57
3.56
-2.11
0.11
-2.36
-1.54
-7.04
-7.17
4.92
3.36
-3.65
-3.24
-5.86
-1.87
3.27
-3.99
-3.09
-3.19
11.14

-10.05
2.85
1.07
3.84
0.55
3.16
2.4
0.5
0.99
1.24
1.97
-0.27
-3.46
2.44
4.34
1.9
-1.49
-6.97
1
2.1
1.47
3.93
4.26
0.58
2.33
-3.4
-0.31
3.37
-0.49
3.08
4.6
2.45
-0.97
-1.97
-1.81
-2.49
2.24
-1.38
1.19
-1.18
0.37
0
1.15
0.56
-0.51
0.95
-4.29

1.36
-2.22
-2.19
2.27
1.2
-0.67
1.05
1.92
1.48
1.7
-1.55
-0.87
-1.86
-3.25
-1.98
1.8
0.62
-1.06
1.06
0.39
-0.89
-6.3
-2.64
-4.79
-2.74
-8.35
2.68
6.84
0.97
0.67
2.26
-0.43
5.13
-0.66
4.84
5.2
-4.21
1.9
0.74
3.17
6.1
3.78
-2.78
1.81
1.54
0.15
1.16

0.17
1.09
1.96
-2.5
-1.14
0.62
1.05
-0.88
-1.61
-0.2
1.58
1.02
1.04
0.11
-0.67
-1.67
0.11
1.38
-2.09
0.31
-0.09
3.94
2.1
2.03
1.67
4.53
-1.25
-3.54
0.19
-2.34
0.82
0.33
-1.35
1.08
-0.25
-0.02
3.29
0.1
0.19
-1.52
-3.38
-1.44
1.51
0.91
0.03
1.03
-1.96

1.03
-1.21
-1.38
1.57
1.04
0.28
0.21
-0.84
-0.45
0.59
-1.45
0.54
0.24
-2
-1.01
2.01
3.04
-1.34
0.54
-0.47
-0.95
-2.46
-0.8
-2.81
-1.22
-5.74
1.18
4.35
2.25
-0.53
1.2
-1.6
2.68
-3.04
1.46
2.79
-2.76
0.63
2.41
2.08
4.57
2.37
-0.15
-0.09
2.72
1.54
0.18

0.68
0.7
0.78
0.77
0.73
0.81
0.8
0.82
0.81
0.77
0.77
0.83
0.87
0.99
0.95
0.8
0.89
1.21
1.26
0.81
0.61
0.53
0.64
0.75
0.95
0.96
1.31
1.04
1.07
1.21
1.08
1.15
1.35
1.24
1.28
1.24
1.21
1.07
0.87
0.8
0.92
0.98
1.13
1.06
0.96
1.05
0.76

-8.39
5.52
3.05
-1.24
-1.06
2.88
0.81
-0.2
0.82
-1.09
-0.23
5.34
2.12
7.96
4.78
7.51
7.88
-9.59
-0.42
-1.11
1.59
0.37
3.19
5.44
7.32
15.24
-6.65
-7.94
-1.39
0.74
-0.96
3.75
-5.9
-2.52
-1.12
1.98
4.07
-0.27
1.32
1.73
5
2.93
-0.41
2.55
5
4.47
-3.52

198209
198210
198211
198212
198301
198302
198303
198304
198305
198306
198307
198308
198309
198310
198311
198312
198401
198402
198403
198404
198405
198406
198407
198408
198409
198410
198411
198412
198501
198502
198503
198504
198505
198506
198507
198508
198509
198510
198511
198512
198601
198602
198603
198604
198605
198606
198607

1.29
11.3
4.67
0.55
3.6
2.59
2.82
6.67
0.52
3.07
-4.07
-0.5
0.91
-3.44
2.16
-1.78
-1.92
-4.82
0.63
-0.51
-5.97
1.82
-2.74
10.28
-0.8
-0.84
-1.76
1.84
7.99
1.22
-0.84
-0.96
5.09
1.27
-0.74
-1.02
-4.54
4.02
6.48
3.88
0.65
7.13
4.88
-1.31
4.62
1.03
-6.45

2.57
1.92
4.53
-0.01
3.28
2.9
1.42
0.49
6.22
1.15
0.98
-4.34
0.25
-3.82
1.88
-0.47
-0.07
-1.62
-0.28
-1.01
0.08
0.07
-2.22
-0.3
0
-1.43
-0.98
-0.69
3.49
1
-1.48
-0.1
-2.33
0.48
2.89
-0.32
-1.81
-1.55
0
-0.39
1.01
-0.76
-0.57
2.92
-1.26
-0.87
-3.54

0.34
-3.68
-1.96
0.01
-0.86
0.67
2.07
0.6
-1.4
-3.87
5.62
5.55
1.09
5.06
-0.62
1.67
7.63
3.36
0.48
1.29
0.26
-2.6
0.49
-1.85
5.32
0.51
4.08
-0.17
-5.43
-0.12
4.1
3.73
-0.86
0.7
-1.63
2.28
1.32
0.78
-2.87
-1.53
0.53
-0.94
-0.44
-2.85
-0.11
1.4
4.78

2.12
0.3
-1.05
-0.07
-1.5
-0.57
-0.07
-0.16
-1.85
2.52
-0.03
0.45
1.21
-0.81
-0.48
1.59
-0.93
0.82
-0.93
3.27
2.32
3.08
3.69
-0.89
1.4
1.17
0.81
1.21
-0.83
1.26
1.18
1.59
1.3
1.5
-0.45
-0.04
1.16
0.92
0.29
0.97
-2.02
1.15
1.12
2.91
2.08
1.83
-0.57

-0.04
-0.37
0.32
1.03
-0.46
1.02
2.81
1.6
-1.53
-0.89
2.84
1.95
0.59
2.97
0.64
1.21
3
1.57
1.09
0.76
-0.5
-1.51
-2.17
-0.81
2.53
-1.16
2.08
-1.26
-3.36
1.03
2.94
0.71
-1.39
-0.59
-0.31
1.88
1.61
-1.11
-2.33
-1.8
-2.05
-1.39
0.99
0.02
1.11
0.87
0.61

0.51
0.59
0.63
0.67
0.69
0.62
0.63
0.71
0.69
0.67
0.74
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.7
0.73
0.76
0.71
0.73
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.82
0.83
0.86
1
0.73
0.64
0.65
0.58
0.62
0.72
0.66
0.55
0.62
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.61
0.65
0.56
0.53
0.6
0.52
0.49
0.52
0.52

4.17
0.03
5.89
0.02
-1.7
3.83
0.93
1.8
-1.59
1.78
-3.13
-6.04
-0.1
-4.56
-0.09
0.74
-2.49
0.19
1.09
2.05
1.52
-0.7
2.93
-5.69
3.67
3.21
1.7
1.54
-6.9
1.82
1.68
3.06
4
3.63
-3.94
1.82
1.48
4.88
-0.4
-0.13
2.96
2.78
2.45
-0.5
2.02
5.16
1.8

198608
198609
198610
198611
198612
198701
198702
198703
198704
198705
198706
198707
198708
198709
198710
198711
198712
198801
198802
198803
198804
198805
198806
198807
198808
198809
198810
198811
198812
198901
198902
198903
198904
198905
198906
198907
198908
198909
198910
198911
198912
199001
199002
199003
199004
199005
199006

6.07
-8.6
4.66
1.17
-3.27
12.47
4.39
1.64
-2.11
0.11
3.94
3.85
3.52
-2.59
-23.24
-7.77
6.81
4.21
4.75
-2.27
0.56
-0.29
4.79
-1.25
-3.31
3.3
1.15
-2.29
1.49
6.1
-2.25
1.57
4.33
3.35
-1.35
7.2
1.44
-0.76
-3.67
1.03
1.16
-7.85
1.11
1.83
-3.36
8.42
-1.09

-4.36
1.97
-2.33
-1.88
0.07
-1.51
3.41
0.21
-1.55
-0.59
-2.29
-1.11
-0.9
0.37
-8.09
2.83
0.09
-0.54
3.32
6.26
1.12
-2.59
2.19
-0.17
-0.02
-1.31
-2.95
-1.66
2.01
-2.23
2.67
0.76
-0.7
-0.01
-1.08
-4.04
0.43
0.46
-3.33
-1.3
-2.3
-1.33
1.18
1.64
-0.4
-2.4
1.38

3.52
3.19
-1.32
-0.06
0.37
-3.18
-5.99
1.66
-0.33
0.13
1.07
0.66
-0.9
0.28
4.23
3.14
-4.49
5.08
-1.65
0.74
1.69
2.3
-1.07
2.27
2.03
-0.68
1.71
1.24
-1.55
0.51
0.87
0.46
-1.45
-0.82
2.19
-2.84
0.72
-1.34
-1.03
-1.12
0.28
0.87
0.61
-2.9
-2.55
-3.74
-1.94

-1.74
-0.05
0.13
1.12
0.83
0.2
-0.9
1.36
-0.46
0.52
1.73
-0.5
2.03
-0.9
2.01
-1.92
3.01
-1.12
1.56
-0.16
-0.23
-0.7
1.42
-0.59
-0.76
1.72
1.4
-0.31
0.64
-1.03
-0.82
0.01
0.76
0.49
0.24
1.99
0.41
1.4
0
-0.91
-0.1
-1.13
-0.19
2.15
1.72
1.65
-1

3.24
3.62
0.89
0.61
-0.03
-1.09
-2.76
4.03
1.22
1.32
0.83
1.56
-1.59
1.89
2.39
0.71
-2.36
2.09
-0.11
1.91
1.9
0.38
-3.25
1.45
1.74
-0.48
1.04
1.6
-0.37
0.16
1.89
0.79
-0.54
-0.04
1.52
-0.62
-0.5
0.59
0.02
1.47
1.45
1.32
-0.64
-1.02
-0.98
-1.57
-0.34

0.46
0.45
0.46
0.39
0.49
0.42
0.43
0.47
0.44
0.38
0.48
0.46
0.47
0.45
0.6
0.35
0.39
0.29
0.46
0.44
0.46
0.51
0.49
0.51
0.59
0.62
0.61
0.57
0.63
0.55
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.79
0.71
0.7
0.74
0.65
0.68
0.69
0.61
0.57
0.57
0.64
0.69
0.68
0.63

-5.01
-5.86
2.69
-0.32
0.4
2.1
-2.17
1.6
0.26
-0.68
-0.2
2.67
-0.87
0.71
-7.86
-1.15
5.83
-7.58
-1.54
0.63
2.25
0.64
-2.91
0.63
0.33
0.24
1.31
0.42
0.42
-0.14
0.94
3.55
1.69
1.56
0.65
5.44
-0.14
3.4
1.37
2.58
2.81
-3.28
-0.53
1.65
2.4
3.05
2.43

199007
199008
199009
199010
199011
199012
199101
199102
199103
199104
199105
199106
199107
199108
199109
199110
199111
199112
199201
199202
199203
199204
199205
199206
199207
199208
199209
199210
199211
199212
199301
199302
199303
199304
199305
199306
199307
199308
199309
199310
199311
199312
199401
199402
199403
199404
199405

-1.9
-10.15
-6.12
-1.92
6.35
2.46
4.69
7.19
2.65
-0.28
3.65
-4.94
4.24
2.32
-1.59
1.29
-4.19
10.84
-0.59
1.09
-2.66
1.07
0.3
-2.34
3.77
-2.38
1.19
1.02
4.13
1.53
0.93
0.12
2.3
-3.05
2.89
0.31
-0.34
3.71
-0.12
1.41
-1.89
1.65
2.87
-2.55
-4.78
0.68
0.58

-3.27
-3.85
-3.78
-5.07
-0.06
0.61
3.86
3.96
3.82
0.33
0.17
0.17
-0.96
1.44
1.55
0.95
-0.87
-2.42
9.26
1.35
-0.9
-5.73
0.21
-2.71
-0.61
-0.42
0.48
2.02
3.91
1.64
2.09
-3.42
0.05
-0.86
1.88
0.11
0.9
0.25
3.07
1.61
-1.43
1.36
-0.15
2.65
-1.02
-1.05
-2.47

-0.01
1.58
0.73
0.22
-3.16
-1.54
-1.84
-0.54
-1.23
1.42
-0.57
1.21
-1.25
-0.78
-1
-0.43
-1.93
-4.03
4.51
6.37
3.65
4.31
1.28
3.4
-0.53
-1.03
-0.21
-2.1
-1.48
2.52
5.87
6.42
1.22
2.61
-3.41
2.62
3.24
-0.45
-0.45
-1.54
-0.27
0.57
2.09
-1.44
1.31
1.68
0.2

-0.27
-0.43
-0.16
2.87
0.82
2.86
1.55
-0.27
-0.39
0.53
2.11
1.75
1.61
0.88
-1.81
-1.73
1.08
3.58
-1.33
0.09
-0.08
1.71
-0.96
-0.03
1.56
3.79
1.54
1.31
-0.84
-0.44
-1.77
-0.5
-0.29
-3.69
-0.01
-1.06
-2.18
-1.16
0.77
-0.1
1.55
0.7
-2.28
2.45
0.77
1.01
0.9

3.1
2.99
3.71
-0.49
-4.75
-2
-4.08
-0.16
-0.99
0.71
-2.45
0.63
-1.41
-0.55
0.16
-0.29
0.12
-3.12
3.15
2.04
1.93
2.22
0.43
1.07
-0.72
-1.62
-0.5
-0.8
-1.91
0.75
2.78
4.05
0.92
1.52
-1.18
1.09
2.02
-0.03
-0.09
0.6
-0.96
-0.3
1.47
-1.05
1.25
1.12
0.71

0.68
0.66
0.6
0.68
0.57
0.6
0.52
0.48
0.44
0.53
0.47
0.42
0.49
0.46
0.46
0.42
0.39
0.38
0.34
0.28
0.34
0.32
0.28
0.32
0.31
0.26
0.26
0.23
0.23
0.28
0.23
0.22
0.25
0.24
0.22
0.25
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.22
0.25
0.23
0.25
0.21
0.27
0.27
0.31

5.93
1.78
5.53
6.73
-5.62
0.16
-6.53
-4.73
2.83
-2.4
-0.1
0.46
4.31
1.63
1.73
3.23
1.26
8.3
-2.51
-0.58
-0.36
-2.6
0.13
-0.61
1.44
-0.51
1.43
2.71
-0.34
4.44
4.83
3.1
3.74
0.33
0.29
4.58
3.24
2.58
3.41
-2.67
-4.71
2.28
0.02
-0.29
-1.33
0.41
-2.15

199406
199407
199408
199409
199410
199411
199412
199501
199502
199503
199504
199505
199506
199507
199508
199509
199510
199511
199512
199601
199602
199603
199604
199605
199606
199607
199608
199609
199610
199611
199612
199701
199702
199703
199704
199705
199706
199707
199708
199709
199710
199711
199712
199801
199802
199803
199804

-3.03
2.82
4.01
-2.31
1.34
-4.04
0.86
1.8
3.63
2.19
2.11
2.9
2.72
3.72
0.55
3.35
-1.52
3.96
1.03
2.26
1.33
0.73
2.06
2.36
-1.14
-5.97
2.77
5.01
0.86
6.25
-1.7
4.98
-0.49
-5.02
4.04
6.74
4.1
7.33
-4.15
5.35
-3.8
2.98
1.32
0.15
7.04
4.76
0.73

-0.52
-1.84
1.28
2.66
-2.29
0.12
-0.02
-2.76
-0.55
-0.73
-0.34
-2.06
2.95
2.1
1.84
-1.88
-4.04
-1.17
0.67
-2.59
1.82
1.54
4.64
3.17
-3.47
-3.68
2.54
-1.32
-3.89
-3.79
3.22
-1.82
-2.52
-0.48
-5.74
4.65
1.26
-2.83
7.66
2.56
-0.5
-5.03
-2.01
-1.4
-0.02
-0.66
-0.01

1.7
0.59
-2.82
-1.9
-1.73
-0.94
0.55
0.83
1.08
-1.07
2.26
1.69
-2.27
-1.68
2.71
-0.76
-0.75
0.94
0.86
0.3
-1.42
1
-3.9
-1.2
1.56
4.45
-0.46
-3.14
5.12
1.16
0.9
-1.64
5.19
3.81
-0.07
-3.87
1.23
0.84
1.38
0.02
1.96
0.78
3.46
-1.45
-0.13
1.06
0.74

1.16
-0.88
0.87
0.61
0.58
0.8
0.42
0.61
0.58
-0.33
0.05
0.46
-0.48
0.51
-1.38
1.31
2.17
-0.83
-1.32
-0.63
0.4
1.3
0.17
0.43
3.47
2.84
-0.3
1.51
1.32
2.01
0.57
1.27
0.73
0.35
3.29
-0.98
1.02
-0.24
-0.94
-1.39
1.09
3.07
1.18
0.46
-0.87
-1.02
-2.13

1.51
0.14
-1.45
0.95
-0.64
-0.45
0.31
-0.84
-0.33
0.19
1.01
0.09
-2.43
-1.71
1.64
0.36
-0.04
1.19
2.99
2.28
-1.8
-0.97
-2.2
-0.22
1.08
2.6
-2.43
-2.18
2.97
-0.73
1.51
-0.27
3.4
1.67
-0.91
-2.9
0.54
-2.54
-0.03
-0.91
1.89
1.66
1.91
-0.83
-2.42
-0.48
-0.23

0.31
0.28
0.37
0.37
0.38
0.37
0.44
0.42
0.4
0.46
0.44
0.54
0.47
0.45
0.47
0.43
0.47
0.42
0.49
0.43
0.39
0.39
0.46
0.42
0.4
0.45
0.41
0.44
0.42
0.41
0.46
0.45
0.39
0.43
0.43
0.49
0.37
0.43
0.41
0.44
0.42
0.39
0.48
0.43
0.39
0.39
0.43

-0.82
0.19
1.55
1.32
1.43
-0.2
3.5
-1.83
-0.36
0.38
1.8
-0.43
2.9
2.53
0.09
2.71
4.12
-0.64
2.54
0.57
0.58
-1.88
-0.91
1.56
1.01
-0.11
-0.05
2.69
3.91
-2.23
0.61
1.95
-2.05
0.97
4.92
-5.16
2.62
3.81
-2.55
1.45
-0.38
0.29
3.95
0.11
-1.14
2.15
0.78

199805
199806
199807
199808
199809
199810
199811
199812
199901
199902
199903
199904
199905
199906
199907
199908
199909
199910
199911
199912
200001
200002
200003
200004
200005
200006
200007
200008
200009
200010
200011
200012
200101
200102
200103
200104
200105
200106
200107
200108
200109
200110
200111
200112
200201
200202
200203

-3.07
3.18
-2.46
-16.08
6.15
7.13
6.1
6.16
3.5
-4.08
3.45
4.33
-2.46
4.77
-3.49
-1.38
-2.79
6.12
3.37
7.72
-4.74
2.45
5.2
-6.4
-4.42
4.64
-2.51
7.03
-5.45
-2.76
-10.72
1.19
3.13
-10.05
-7.26
7.94
0.72
-1.94
-2.13
-6.46
-9.25
2.46
7.54
1.61
-1.44
-2.29
4.24

-3.11
-3.67
-5.32
-5.01
-0.82
-3.53
0.65
-1.5
-0.75
-5.15
-4.3
4.65
3.73
2.26
2.53
-1.93
2.56
-7.08
5.9
5.41
4.16
18.32
-14.91
-5.55
-3.67
10.39
-0.97
-1.1
0.21
-2.8
-0.46
3.16
5.81
2.66
2.31
-0.64
3.58
6.62
-2.91
2.72
-5.69
5.41
-0.31
5.13
1.19
-0.47
4.27

4.16
-2.32
-0.97
3.41
-3.31
-2.2
-3.14
-4.46
-4.03
1.4
-2.64
2.51
2.4
-3.59
-0.76
-1.31
-3.4
-2.88
-6.51
-8.74
-0.29
-9.93
7.37
8.61
2.56
-9.86
8.14
-0.68
6.24
5.52
11.3
7.33
-4.9
12.9
6.45
-4.69
3.14
-1.06
5.58
2.5
1.6
-8.1
2
1.1
3.33
2.5
1.11

0.97
-0.52
1.82
3.48
-1.52
0.59
-1.25
-0.75
-2.69
-1.71
-4.2
-2.42
1.09
1.32
0.48
-0.29
-0.74
-1.71
-3.85
-7.9
-6.05
-18.33
11.67
7.54
4.63
-6.82
5.98
-3.06
3.07
9.65
13.31
1.83
-4.43
9
3.38
-2.71
0.18
2.04
7.17
3.95
4.93
-2.62
-3.76
0.31
4.36
7.62
-1.35

2.54
-2.91
0.45
5.84
-2.9
0.27
-1.15
-3.35
-6.88
4.09
-1.38
0.92
3.34
-3.39
3.11
0.31
-1.06
-1.25
-1.58
-5.29
4.73
-0.5
-1.05
5.27
0.74
-3.07
3
0.61
6.38
4.7
8.51
5.72
-6.54
9.58
3.95
-3.97
2.19
-1.8
3
6.5
3.28
-4.6
-1.66
-0.32
2.84
5.14
0.58

0.4
0.41
0.4
0.43
0.46
0.32
0.31
0.38
0.35
0.35
0.43
0.37
0.34
0.4
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.36
0.44
0.41
0.43
0.47
0.46
...


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