DS412 Final Assessment Take-Home (Spring 2019) Instructions (20-points) As you did with the take-home portion of the midterm, you may complete this alone or with members of your team. Whether you work individually or with your group, you will not be graded any differently. This portion is due on the day of the final assessment. If you work with a team, you will only need to turn in one copy. Make sure to list all team members in alphabetic order. Late take-homes will not be accepted. DATASET Period Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 1 840 805 805 2 830 815 800 3 815 845 800 4 855 800 835 5 795 780 810 6 845 770 801 7 765 765 780 8 830 785 835 9 820 795 830 10 845 850 855 (10 points) Part A: Calculate the following for the two forecasts above: • • • The MSE for both forecasts. The MAD for both forecasts. The MAPE for both forecasts. (10 points) Part B: Conduct the following forecasts for periods 2 through 12 as possible: • Naïve • 4-period Moving Average • 3-period Weighted Moving Average where the most recent weight is 0.6 and 2nd most recent is 0.3. • Exponential Smoothing (alpha=0.3)
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