# MSU Economy of Sports and Conditional Probability Project

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### Question Description

economy of sports project 5 : hot hand. compute conditional prob. requirements, example and my data are in the files.

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School: Carnegie Mellon University

Attached.

Question 1

p(hit | 3 misses) = 0

p(hit | 2 misses) =

p(hit | 1 miss) =

p(hit) =

0.297297

0.301887

0.47

p(hit | 1 hit) =

p(hit | 2 hit) =

p(hit | 3 hit) =

Ρ=

0.673913

0.666667

0.684211

0.371569

Question 2
Yes. It is because the hit probability that is given to a person who made three hits is higher than
the standard probability of hitting. That is, the three hits probability is 0.684211 and the standard
probability is 0.47.

Question 3
The correlation for the first two rows is 0.371569. it means that if a person is successful in the
last game, he or she has more chances of succeeding the game. This is because, with a 0.371569, it
shows that there is a lower correlation among the points gained in games that are played.
Question 4

hits
47

misses
53

runs
42

expected runs
43

z-statistic
1.645

Question 5

Question 6
Yes. It is because the runs come below the z-statistic which is 1.645 and it is equivalent to p =
0.1

EVA
0
Shooting Percentage
Correlation Coefficient

(# of hits in a row prior to shot)
(# of misses in a row prior to shot)

# of shots following 1 make
#of shots made following 1 make
conditional probability given 1 make
# of shots following 2 makes
# of shots made following 2 makes
con...

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