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EPDCIT Level 2 Jan - June 2014 semester MAJAN COLLEGE (UNIVERSITY COLLEGE) FACULTY OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY STUDENT ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET Module Name English for Professional Development and Communication in IT (EPDCIT) Level 2 Module Code CC22-2 Assessment No. 2a Assessment Type and weighting: Individual Report (30%) STUDENT MCUC NUMBER: Please note that a grade will only be given to those whose student number is noted on this form. Please ensure that the student numbers from all group members are recorded accurately. Assessment Date: 6pm Sunday 4th May 2014 MODULE COORDINATOR: Mr. Philip Barber MODULE TUTOR: Dr Tulika DECLARATION • The work contained in this assignment is my own and that all materials and sources used have been acknowledged. • I/We have not copied or colluded in part or in whole, or otherwise plagiarised the work of other students. • This assignment has not been submitted for previous assessment in any other subject or to a substantial extent has been accepted for the award of any other unit, module, degree or diploma of a university or any other institute, except where due acknowledgement is made in the text. • I/We confirm that I/we have read, understood and followed the guidelines for assignment submission and presentation provided by the lecturer. • I/We understand that this assignment may be retained on the database and used to make comparisons with other assignments in future. • I/We have made a copy of my assignment • This work may be photocopied and/or communicated for the purpose of identifying plagiarism. • I/We give permission for a copy of this marked assignment to be retained by the faculty of Business Management for the purpose of course reviews by external examiners and to be used as a resource by Majan College. • I/We understand that unauthorized late submission without a valid written extension will be marked as per the college policy mentioned in the students handbook page 18 section 18.5. Majan College (University College) Page 1 EPDCIT Level 2 Jan - June 2014 semester English for Professional Development and Communication in Information Technology CC22-2 Assessment Type: Individual Assessment Weighting: 30% Task Assessment 2a is in the form of an individual business report. Students will be provided with three articles on a current news topic. Using skills that they have been taught during the module, students will have to analyse the articles and produce a 2,000 word business report using the structure and format that they have been taught in class. Students are strongly recommended to submit a plan followed by a draft to their tutor prior to submission. How you will be assessed: The assessment is split into five sections and the total marks available are 100, which will be allocated as follows: Concept and Layout = 20% Analysis and Development = 20% Structure = 20% Language = 20% Academic Skills = 20% See Appendix 1 for further details. Marks will be deducted from reports that are submitted +/- 10% of the 2,000 word limit. Majan College (University College) Page 2 EPDCIT Level 2 Jan - June 2014 semester Additional Guidelines The Assignment Submission link on MOVE will be open, a week ahead of the submission date. You can submit your assignment multiple times, till the submission deadline. Note that Turnitin could take up to 24 hours to produce similarity reports for submissions. The last submission, within the deadline, will be considered as your final submission. Assignments should be submitted by 6 pm on the day of the deadline. There is a grace period until midnight to allow for technical difficulties, but any assignment submitted after this will be considered as a late submission. Technical problems will not be accepted as an excuse for a late submission. The similarity percentage of your final submission will be one of the factors considered, for assessing the originality of your assignment. However, the decision to report an assignment for plagiarism is taken by the Lecturers, who mark your assignment. The Lecturers will consider a number of factors such as Assignment type, part of the assignment where similarity occurs, nature of similarity etc., along with the similarity percentage of your assignment to assess the originality of your assignment. Therefore, similarity percentage would not be accepted as a basis for disputing academic judgments regarding plagiarism. Note that the similarity percentage of your submission can change till the submission deadline, if the submissions of other students have similarity to your assignment. Therefore, the similarity percentages are not final, till the assignment submission is closed. Plagiarism and Academic misconduct The following regulations apply to course assessments and examinations. Plagiarism means taking and claiming the work of others as your own, without acknowledging the author or source. At induction you will be shown how to reference properly. You should make sure you adopt the Harvard referencing system for your work. Please refer to your Student Handbook page 41 section 7.2 for further information on Harvard referencing Style. Copying the work of other students and presenting it as your own can result in a ‘Fail’ for all students concerned, including the student who produced the original work. It is acceptable and often helpful; to discuss ideas with other students, but where submitted work is mere reproduction and repetition of others' words and ideas, then it counts as copying. Your written reports MUST be entirely from your own effort. This consideration applies just as strictly when students have been working together on the execution of coursework exercises. See the penalties in the student’s handbook page 30 section 5.6 Majan College (University College) Page 3 EPDCIT Level 2 Jan - June 2014 semester Although grades may be awarded on the basis of marks in some assessments, students should note that both marks and grades will be awarded on the basis of the assessment criteria for each grade. GRADE GRADE POINT GENERAL ASSESSMENT CRITERIA DESCRIPTION D- 5 E 4 F 2 F- 1 • An outstanding piece of work. Shows evidence of wider reading and originality Strongly analytical. All important points are covered. Arguments should be supported by examples and evidence, objectively presented and evaluated, Well structured and well written, without noticeable grammatical or other errors. Correctly referenced Very good work. All main points will have been covered, though minor issues may have been omitted. The work will be analytical, balanced and soundly based. Examples and supporting evidence should have been included. The writing should be essentially correct, without major grammatical or other errors. Generally referenced correctly. Generally good work. Most points will have been covered, but many finer points will generally have been missed. Shows limited reading. Arguments/analysis should be basically well structured and balanced with relevant examples, but with errors and gaps. The writing is clear, but has errors that nevertheless do not obscure the meaning. Referencing will be present but may at times be inaccurate or insufficient. Satisfactory. Shows sufficient grasp of the subject to be acceptable. Tends to be descriptive. Examples and evidence is likely to be weak and limited. Shows limited reading. Referencing is likely to be absent or very poorly carried out. Unsatisfactory/ Compensable fail. Serious errors and omissions. Very little analysis Work of a very poor standard with little relevant information and/or serious errors. Work containing little of merit G 0 • No work submitted A+ 16 A 15 Excellent • • • • 14 • B+ 13 • • • B 12 A- • Very Good B- 11 C+ 10 C 9 • • • • • • • Good C- 8 • • D+ 7 D 6 Pass • • • • • • Refer Fail Majan College (University College) • • • • Page 4 EPDCIT Level 2 Jan - June 2014 semester Terms of Reference You are a road traffic safety expert and you have been asked to produce a business report of approximately 2,000 words titled; "Road Traffic Accidents in the Arabian Gulf: What are the causes and effects and how can road safety be improved to prevent them?", The report needs to address the questions in the title whilst comparing and contrasting the data from the following three articles: "Causes and effects of road traffic accidents in Saudi Arabia", "Increased motorization and Road Traffic Accidents in Oman", and " Strategy to improve road safety in developing countries." This report has been requested by the Minister of Transport and Communications of Oman HE Dr. Ahmed Al-Futaisi and has to be submitted by 6pm on Sunday 4th May, via Turnitin. A business report writing structure should be used to present this report and recommendations will be expected to be produced to address the questions in the title. Majan College (University College) Page 5 Public Health (2000) 114, 37±39 ß R.I.P.H.H. 2000 www.nature.com/ph Causes and effects of road traf®c accidents in Saudi Arabia S Ansari*, F Akhdar, M Mandoorah and K Moutaery Department of Neurosciences, Riyadh Armed Forces Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia In Saudi Arabia the motor vehicle is the main means of transportation. Between 1971 and 1997; 564 762 people died or were injured in road traf®c accidents, a ®gure equivalent to 3.5% of the total population in Saudi Arabia. During this period 66 914 people have died on the roads in Saudi Arabia due to road accidents, amounting to one person killed and four injured every hour. Over 65% of accidents occur because of vehicles travelling at excess speed and=or drivers disobeying traf®c signals. Of deaths in Ministry of Health hospitals, 81% are due to road traf®c accidents and 20% of their beds are occupied by traf®c accidents victims. Also, 79.2% of patients admitted to Riyadh Armed Forces Hospital with spinal injuries has sustained their injuries as a result of a motor vehicle accident. We recommend compulsory use of safety seat belts in vehicles and the setting up of a new database to collect, store and analyse information relating to the road traf®c accidents. Public Health (2000) 114, 37±39. Keywords: road traf®c accidents (RTA); mortality rates; injury rates; vehicle speeding; traf®c signal violations; seat belt use; Saudi Arabia Introduction The problem of road traf®c accidents (described by the WHO as a cost of modernisation) is becoming an internationally recognised concern. Road traf®c accidents, i.e. accidents involving a motor vehicle with another vehicle, animal or pedestrian are becoming increasingly common in Saudi Arabia.1 They are a major cause of morbidity and mortality at a rate which is on a level with heart diseases and cancer.2,3 There has been a progressive increase in vehicle accidents within Saudi Arabia which corresponds to the increase in the number of registered vehicles over the past two decades (Figure 1). Since 1992, the number of reported traf®c accidents has suddenly Figure 2 Cause of accidents in Saudi Arabia for the decades 1970, 1980, 1990 (by percentage of whole). Figure 1 Number of accidents recorded by number of vehicles registered (in thousands) for Saudi Arabia for the years 1971 ± 1994 inclusive. *Correspondence: Dr Sohail Ansari, W-939 Riyadh Armed Forces Hospital, PO Box 7897, Riyadh 11159, Saudi Arabia. Accepted 30 April 1999 increased throughout Saudi Arabia. This is partly due to the change in methods of registering traf®c accidents. Previously, some accidents went unreported either to the police or to the Ministry of Health hospitals. Legislation passed at this time, which made it compulsory to report accidents to the police and for the victims to attend the designated Ministry of Health hospital, would be expected to be responsible for the sudden increase in accidents recorded. Computerised information technology is now being used by the traf®c engineering department to maintain a national data base for these accidents. This has mostly replaced the previous practice of keeping handwritten records. In 1971, 5483 vehicular accident injuries were recorded: this ®gure had increased six fold for the year 1994, for which 32 133 injuries were recorded. Recorded deaths from vehicular accidents increased from 570 in 1971 to 4077 in 1994, a seven fold increase. Excess speed and violation of traf®c signals are major Causes=effects RTA in Saudia Arabia S Ansari et al 38 causes of traf®c accidents (Figure 2).3 In addition to fatalities, such traf®c accidents also cause disability and a drain on the health resources. Causes of traf®c accidents The causes of traf®c accidents in Saudi Arabia can be divided into: general and speci®c causes. General causes 1. A large increase in the number of vehicles and expansion of road networks within and between cities. 2. Large national development projects which require the development of supporting transport systems. 3. Increased number of expatriates from different countries with different habits and culture who are unfamiliar with local driving conditions and requirements. 2. Signal violation accidents are 4.5 times more common than in the USA. 3. Overtaking from the wrong side in Saudi Arabia is eight times more common than in USA. Making an incorrect U turn (turning the vehicle through 180 ) is also much more common in Saudi Arabia. Effects of traf®c accidents Motor vehicle accidents have social, medical and economic effects on an individual. The average estimated cost of accidents in Saudi Arabia every year is SR 21 billion. In industrial countries the gross loss, due to accidents, is 1 ± 2% of the national income. In Saudi Arabia, an estimated loss of between 2.2% and 9% of the national income has been suggested.5 Also loss of a family member leads to change in family dynamics bringing about ®nancial and emotional problems. Speci®c causes 1. Most accidents occurred as a result of driver error. 2. Over 50% of the traf®c accidents are due to excess speed and violation of signals at intersections (Figure 2). 3. Road safety and vehicle condition contribute to accidents, particularly those on open roads. Therefore errors and negligence of drivers contribute signi®cantly to traf®c accidents throughout Saudi Arabia. Analysis of the spinal cord injury patients admitted to Riyadh Armed Forces Hospital's Spinal Unit showed 79.2% of the patients having been involved in a road accident compared to 47.7% in the USA and 36% in the UK (Figure 3). Studies comparing the causes of the accidents in Saudi Arabia and USA4 showed an estimated 80% of accidents occurred because of the human factor. Safety of the road itself or the vehicle's condition contributed to only 20% of the accidents. The study also showed: 1. Accidents in Saudi Arabia due to excess speed are 3.5 times more common than in the USA. Figure 3 Percentage of all accidents resulting in Spinal Cord Injuries (by cause of injury) for Saudi Arabia compared with the United Kingdom and United States of America. Public Health Medical effects The total number of beds in 175 Ministry of Health hospitals is 26 737. At any time one third of these beds (9000 beds) are occupied by road traf®c accident injury casualties.6 This is in addition to the resources required at the scene of the accident and prehospital care of the victims. Many of these patients have residual disabilities which requires long-term care to be provided in the community. These medical resources are used at the expense of patients with other illnesses. Statistics from Ministry of Health during 1993 and 19957,8 showed the following as the leading causes of death in their hospitals. 1. Road traf®c accidents. 2. Tumours. 3. Cardiac diseases.7,8 Over 22% of the cases transported by the Red Crescent Society ambulances during the year 1994 (1415H) were from road accidents. A study from an Eastern Province hospital9 showed that 46% of the total injuries received were due to road accidents and 80% of these patients were below 40 y of age, 69% of those injured were Saudis, and 20% of the victims were children below the age of 12. The male to female ratio was 9 : 1. None of the victims were wearing seat belts at the time of the accident and 49% had head and facial injuries. Half were discharged from hospital before 10 days, 25% stayed more than 30 days, and 33% of long-stay patients were discharged with a disability resulting in a major neurological de®cit. Head and facial injury were the main effects of road traf®c accidents in Riyadh,10 accounting for 30% of injuries and causing 26% of the deaths. Seat belts could have substantially reduced the number of fatalities and injuries. 73.6% of all cases of hemiplegia, paraplegia or tetraplegia in Saudi Arabia are due to road traf®c accidents.11 Of deaths in 1982 registered in accident and emergency departments in the Riyadh Medical Centre 70.2% were caused by road accidents. Minor accidents in Saudi Arabia at 82.1% are less than that in USA (91.6%) but this is balanced by major accidents causing injuries and deaths in Saudi Arabia being more than double (17.4%) than those in the USA (8.313%).4 The number of accidents resulting in injuries in Saudi Arabia is Causes=effects RTA in Saudia Arabia S Ansari et al twice that in USA but the number of fatalities is more than eight times the USA ®gure. Therefore the severity of road traf®c accidents in Saudi Arabia is much greater than those in USA, and needs special attention due to the human and ®nancial resources lost in treating these patients. The ratio of accidents to injuries in Saudi Arabia is 8 : 6 compared to the international estimate of 8 : 1. In the USA, the ratio of accidents to deaths was 283 : 1 in 1993; the ratio for Saudi Arabia in 1995 was 32 : 1.4,12 Recommendations The size of the problem of traf®c accidents and the size of the human and economic resources lost are enormous. It is necessary to implement a national strategy to face this problem. The human factor (the driver) has a major role. This problem can be overcome by: 1. Control of the poor driving such as violation of traf®c rules, for example, driving at excess speed, ignoring crossing signals, unsafe overtaking and unsafe U turns (turning the vehicle through 180 ). This should reduce traf®c accidents by more than 50%. Firm punishment for those who violate traf®c rules needs to be implemented. 2. The compulsory use of safety seat belts for the driver and the front passengers should be implemented. 3. Improving the method of collecting traf®c accident data and improving ways of processing these data in order to get the maximum bene®t from it. In the era of the Internet, the old ways of manual ®ling and recording of these data should be made obsolete. Processed data could be linked to advanced systems of data analysis to produce regular reports to improve traf®c safety. 39 References 1 Ministry of Interior. Traf®c statistics: Statistical publications from 1391H ± 1417H. (1971 ± 1997) Ministry of Interior, General Traf®c Department: Riyadh. 2 WHO. World Health Statistics. World Health Organisation: Geneva, 1996. 3 Al Ghamdi A. Road traf®c accidents in Saudi Arabia: Causes, Effects and Solutions 1418H. General Traf®c Department: Saudi Arabia, 1998. 4 National Safety Council. Accident facts, 2nd edn. National Safety Council: USA, 1994. 5 Saudi Arabia Monetary. The 32nd annual report 1417H. The economical and statistical research Of®ce: Saudi Arabia, 1997. 6 Al Sheikh M. Analysis of traf®c accident and facilities in Riyadh: Epidemiological study. College of Engineering, King Saud University: Riyadh, 1996. 7 Ministry of Health. Annual Health Report. Ministry of Health: Riyadh, 1995. 8 Ministry of Health. Deaths reports for 1995. Ministry of Health: Riyadh, 1995. 9 Al Habdan I. Road traf®c accident admission to King Fahad University Hospital in Al Khobar, Records of international conferences about road traf®c accidents. 1412H. Security Force Hospital: Riyadh, 1992. 10 Isam S, Al Ghamdi A. Analysis of injuries resulting from road traf®c accidents in Riyadh district. King Saud MagazineEngineering Science 1416H Ref. 2; Issue 8, 1996, pp. 235 ± 250. 11 Abdul J, Saif AL, Zacharial S, Nabil W. Study in research about causes of the increase in the rate of road traf®c accidents, injuries in Mecca and Eastern Province and measures to avoid it; 1411 H. General Of®ce for scholarship programmes, King Abdulaziz City for Sciences and Technology: Riyadh, 1991. 12 Mohamed S et al. Improving the emergency medical services in Saudi Arabia; King Abdulaziz. 1414H Book No. 61, City for Sciences and Technology: Riyadh, 1994. Public Health Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6): 907-914 © Scholarlink Research Institute Journals, 2012 (ISSN: 2141-7024 jetems.scholarlinkresearch.org Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) Increased Motorization and Road Traffic Accidents in Oman M. Mazharul Islam and Ahmed Y. S. Al Hadhrami Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Sultan Qaboos University, P.O. Box 36, PC 123, Al Khoud, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman. Corresponding Author: M. Mazharul Islam ___________________________________________________________________________ Abstract With the rapid economic growth, modernization and infrastructure development over the last four decades, there has been massive increase in automobile usages and car ownership in the Sultanate of Oman, and road traffic accident (RTA) emerged as a serious public health problem. There is a dearth of literature on motorization problem in Oman owing to paucity and limited access to data in the past. This is an exploratory study, presenting a profile of recent growth trends of motorization and the pattern of related road traffic accidents in Oman. The study is likely to establish the baseline facts about the transportation system and RTA problems in Oman. Data for the study come from Royal Oman Police (ROP) record and World Health Organization (WHO) report for international comparison. On the average there are 230 vehicles per 1,000 population in Oman, which is higher than many middle income countries. Motorization level shows increasing trends in Oman, and between 2000 and 2009, it has increased by 26%. Private car and shared taxi services are the major modes of personal transport in Oman. In 2009, there were 2.67 accidents per 1,000 population or 9.59 accidents per 1,000 registered vehicles in Oman. RTA shows declining trends during the study period. About 70% of the accidents are due to collision: 48% with other vehicles and 22% with fixed objects. Young drivers over represents accident cases in Oman, as 70% of the RTAs happened to drivers aged 17-36 years. Excessive speeding is the main cause of road traffic accident (50%), followed by negligence or careless driving (29%). About 98% of the RTAs are related to human factors. Effective road transportation planning, and traffic safety programme, particularly speed monitoring system, need to be strengthened. The findings of the study may have important policy implications for transport and road safety planning in Oman. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Keywords: road traffic accidents (RTA), motorization, road crashes, Oman. __________________________________________________________________________________________ INTRODUCTION Ismaily and Probert 1998), which increased to more The Sultanate of Oman is an oil rich Arabian Gulf than 25,000 kilometers in 2009 (MoNE, 2010). The country. The discovery of oil and gas and result has been a large increase in the number of subsequently the booms in oil prices since the middle automobiles usage and car ownership in Oman. of the 20th century has changed the economy and life Consequently, there has been a massive increase in style of the people of Arabian Gulf countries road traffic accident (RTA) with casualties and including Oman, as the gross domestic product fatalities creating a serious public health problem. (GDP) and the per capita income grew rapidly in RTA not only bring immeasurable amount of human these countries (Bener et al., 1994; El-Sadig et.al., sufferings, but also incur huge economic and social 2002). The country is considered as a middle income costs in Oman. country with per capita income $13,343 (MoNE, 2010). Prior to the commercial exploitation of oil in According to official reports of the Ministry of late 1960s, the economy of Oman consisted of Health (MoH) in Oman, RTA problem is the number subsistence agriculture and fishing. Social and one cause of inpatient deaths and the leading cause of economic infrastructure was almost non-existent. By serious injury, disability and premature death among late 1980s, Oman has been transformed into a adults (MoH, 2009). The World Health Organization modern state with all modern facilities and (WHO) has ranked Oman at fourth place in the infrastructures. The standard of living improved Arabian Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states and enormously since the mid-1980s. In Oman, 57th worldwide as far as the occurrence of traffic urbanization occurred in a rapid phase, changing the accidents and resulting injuries and deaths are spatial distribution of the population with intensive concerned (WHO, 2009). Hence, the problem migration from rural to urban areas and from interior constitutes a major concern for Public Health and a to more developed areas. Road construction sizeable burden to Oman’s health care resources. programmes have increased in parallel with other development programmes in Oman. For example, in In most developed countries, the problem of RTAs 1960s Oman had only 10 kilometer paved road (Alhas attracted increasing research and safety 907 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) interventions resulting in a reduction of the size of the problem in many of these countries (Lawrence et al., 1992; Elvik,, 1995; Wayatt et al., 1996; DiGuiseppi et al., 1997; Vägverket, 2006). However, despite the fact that Oman has a higher rate of RTA, yet very little has been done to establish the baseline facts about the problem. There is a dearth of literature about motorization, and road traffic accident and its causality in Oman. To our knowledge, no comprehensive work has been undertaken on level trends and determinants of road traffic accident and its causality in Oman owing to paucity of data in the past. However, the routine data collected by the Royal Oman Police (ROP) in recent time allows us to fill this gap and improve our understanding of the RTA and its causality in Oman. Thus, the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the growth of motor vehicle and analyze the pattern of road traffic accident in Oman, using the routinely collected time series data by ROP during the period 20002009. The study is likely to establish the baseline facts about the RTA problems in Oman. The findings of the study may have important policy implications for transport and road safety planning in Oman and elsewhere with similar situation. cases that results in minor damage, injury or causality and overlook minor self accidents or the accidents cases that are settled by the parties mutually at the scene. RTAs are defined to include all traffic related accidents that result in injury or death to road users. RTA injuries are defined to include all traffic related non-fatal injuries, while RTA fatalities are defined to include all traffic-related deaths that occur within 30 days from the accident. Population denominator data were obtained from the published population census reports and the inter census population estimates were obtained based on the enumerated population of 1993, 2003 and 2010 population census in Oman. The data for global comparison were obtained from the WHO Reports (2009). RESULTS Levels and Trends of Automobiles Usage in Oman Table 1 shows the growth of population and the growth of automobiles in Oman during the 10-year study period 2000-2009. It can be seen that there has been massive increase in the number of automobiles compared to population increase during the period 2000 to 2009. Between 2000 and 2009, the population of Oman increased by 21.6%, with the mean annual increase by about 2.0%. On the other hand, the automobile fleet in the country increased by 52.4%, with a mean annual increase by 4.3% between 2000 and 2009. At the same period, the new registration of automobile increased by 161%, with a mean annual increase by 10%. The most remarkable increase in new registration of automobiles occurred during 2006-2008 period. During this period, the number of new registration jumped to five digit number. For example, the number of vehicles in 2006 was 548,908, and 80,762 vehicles were added during 2007, taking the total at the end of the year to 629,670. After 2008, new registration shows gradual decrease. On average, more than 85,000 new vehicles were registered annually in Oman between the years 2000 and 2009 (Table 1). MATERIALS AND METHODS The study is based on data obtained from the Royal Oman Police (ROP). The Directorate General of Traffic (DGT) of ROP is the sole authority to record, analyze and publish all data related to traffic accidents in Oman. Reporting of RTAs related data by ROP is thought to be of high coverage, because of enforcement of a law that car insurance companies, garages or repair establishments could not accept a vehicle involved in an accident for insurance claim and repair if a police report is not produced. Similar traffic law exist in other Arabian Gulf countries (ElSadig et al., 2002; Ziyad and Akhtar, 2011). Nevertheless, the true number of RTA and related fatality and injury are likely to be higher in Oman than it is reported by ROP, as it omit the accident Table 1 Growth of population and vehicle in Oman: 2000-2009 Year Population in ‘000 No. of registered vehicle No. of new registered vehicle Annual growth rate in registered vehicle (%) Annual growth rate in new registered vehicle (%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % change during 2000-2009 Average for the period 2000-2009 2233 2268 2304 2341 2399 2459 2521 2584 2648 2714 21.55 2447 495914 520926 560302 444500 468412 500385 548908 629670 720316 755937 52.43 564527 48740 42978 39376 42561 57130 73421 104891 136516 177441 127001 160.57 85006 5.04 7.56 -20.67 5.38 6.83 9.70 14.71 14.40 4.95 -11.82 -8.38 8.09 34.23 28.52 42.86 30.15 29.98 -28.43 4.3 10.0 Motorization level, as measured by the number of vehicle per 1000 population, shows that on average there are 230 vehicles per 1000 population in Oman. No. of vehicle per 1000 population 222 230 243 190 195 203 218 244 272 279 25.7 229.5 The 2010 population census in Oman recorded 551,058 households in Oman. Thus, there is approximately 1.3 vehicles per household in Oman. 908 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) Over all, motorization shows increasing trends in Oman. Between 2000 and 2009, motorization level increased by 25.7%. of number of private cars and the number of households indicates that there is almost one private car per household in Oman (0.96:1). 80 Figure 1 presents a comparative picture of the level of motorization (number of vehicle per 1000 population) in some selected high and middle income countries including Oman in 2007. The information were obtained from the 2009 WHO’s global status report on road safety (WHO, 2009). It appears that Finland has the highest level of motorization (882 vehicle per 1000 population) closely followed by the USA (822 vehicle per 1000 population). Oman has a motorization level (244 vehicles per 1000 population) higher than many middle income countries, but lowers than the other Arab Gulf countries. For example, in 2007 there were 299, 401, 479 and 509 vehicles per 1000 population, respectively, in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain (Figure 1). Finlan d USA Percent 50 40 30 20.72 20 10 3.71 1.81 0.42 1.52 1.25 0.40 0 at iv Pr e Ta xi om C al ci er m o G rn ve en m t riv D g in o ho sc l o ot M i rb ke R t en al th O s er Figure 2: Percentage distribution of registered vehicles by types of registration, 2009 882 721 714 633 610 UK 565 Bahra in 509 it 479 UAE i Arab ia 401 299 Libya Oman 296 244 Iran Turke y Egyp t 239 178 57 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Figure 1: Level of motorization (number of vehicle per 1000 population) in some selected high and middle income countries including Oman in 2007 With the absence of a railway network or water-ways in Oman, roads remain the primary means for transporting goods and people within the country. There is no public or private bus service within the city or suburban area. However, there are limited intercity bus services, run by a single agency called “Oman National Transport Company” (ONTC). Shared private taxi services are also available within the city and town areas. Thus, private car and Taxi service are the major modes of personal transport in Oman. As a result, the most of the registered vehicle in Oman are private car which numbers have increased tremendously in recent time. Figure 2 shows the percentage distribution of registered vehicles by types of registration in 2009. The data indicate that private car represents the major share of the registered vehicles, as 70% of the registered vehicles are private cars, followed by commercially used vehicles (21%), Taxi (4%), government use (2%), rental (1.3%) and others (each 1.7%). The ratio Figure 3 shows the trends in the number of registered vehicles by types of licence for the 10-year period starting from 2000 to 2009. During this period the number of registered vehicles increased, on the average, by 4.3% per annum. This increase is mainly due to increase in private cars and commercially used cars. Private cars are increasing annually, on the average, by 7%, while commercially used cars are increasing by 2.7% per annum. On the other hand, the number of Taxi, government own vehicles and other types of vehicles remains almost same over the period. The possession of private cars shows steady increase over the period. The growth rate was highest during 2007-2008 (15%). The rate of possession of private car per 1000 population increased from 126 in 2000 to 195 in 2009. Globally, Oman’s rank is 52 in terms of car possession per 1000 population, with highest in USA (765 cars 1000 population) (WHO, 2009). 800000 Private Taxi Others Total 700000 Commercial Government Exported 600000 Number of vehicles Saud 60 822 Qatar Japan Malay sia Cana da Kuwa 70.16 70 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Figure 3 Trends in the number of registered vehicles by types of licence, 2000-2009 909 2008 2009 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) Levels and Trends in Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) in Oman According to the 2000 National Health Survey in Oman (Al Riyami et al., 2000), conducted by the Ministry of Health, road traffic accident (RTA) is the number one cause of accident and injury in Oman accounting for 61 % of the total accident (Table 2). Other important causes of accident are accidental fall (22 %), burns (4.8%), bullet accident (1.8%) and food poisoning (1.2%). Males are 1.5 times more likely to experience RTA than female, while the rate of accidental fall, burns, and food poisoning are higher among females. was 54% for per 1000 population and 63.5% for per 1000 vehicles. The corresponding figures for average annual decrease being 7.5% and 9.6%, respectively. This fall in accident has occurred despite the fact that the number of vehicles on the roads and new driving licenses as well as the population increased over the period. This may be a consequence of the traffic safety efforts of ROP by imposing stringent conditions for issuing license and road safety information, education and communication (IEC) programmes through mass media. Types of RTAs in Oman Table 4 shows the distribution of RTA in Oman in 2009 by the types and severity. The types of RTA were categorized as collusion with other vehicles, collusion with fixed objects, overturn and run over pedestrians. It can be seen that about 70% of the accidents are due to collision: 48% with other vehicles and 22% with fixed objects. Sixteen percent of the accidents were due to overturn and 14% were due to run over the pedestrians. The distribution of RTA by the type of severity indicate that nearly twothird (64%) of the RTA caused injury, while 10.5% caused fatality and the rest 26% were with minor or no causality (Table 4). Cause of accident/injury Road traffic accident (RTA) Accidental fall Burns Food poisoning Sharp and mechanical tools Fire bullets accident Electrical shocks Swallowing chemical/drug Other Total Male 68.1 16.8 3.4 0.8 0.8 2.5 0.8 0.8 5.9 100.0 Female 42.6 36.2 8.5 2.1 2.1 8.5 100.0 Total 60.8 22.3 4.8 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.6 6.6 100.0 Source: Oman National Health Survey, 2000: Volume 1, p136, Al-Riyami et al., (2000) 7 Data in Table 3 shows the levels and trends of RTA in Oman during the first decade of the new millennium (2000-2009), according to the ROP data source. In absolute term there were 7,253 traffic accidents in 2009 against 2.7 million population and 755, 937 registered vehicles, indicating a rate of 2.67 accident per 1000 population or 9.59 accident per 1000 registered vehicles. R TA per 1000 population 6 Table 3: Level of RTA per 1000 population and vehicles, 2000-2009 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % change during 20002009 Average growth per annum Number of RTA 13040 13101 9107 10197 9460 9247 9869 8816 7982 7253 RTA per 1000 population 5.84 5.78 3.95 4.36 3.94 3.76 3.92 3.41 3.01 2.67 RTA per 1000 vehicles 26.29 25.15 16.25 22.94 20.20 18.48 17.98 14.00 11.08 9.59 -54.28 -63.51 -7.52% -9.59% 30 RTA per 1000 population RTA per 1000 Vehicles 25 5 20 4 15 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Figure 4: Trends in rate of RTA per 1000 population and per 1000 registered vehicles in Oman, 2000-2009 Table 4: Percent characteristics, 2009 distribution Characteristics Severity Fatal Accident Injury Accident Minor or no causality Types Collision with vehicle Collision with fixed objects Overturn Run over pedestrians Total -44.38 -5.7% As may be seen from Table 3 and Figure 4 that there is an appreciable decline in RTA rates in Oman. The number of accidents fell down from 13,040 cases in 2000 to 7,253 in 2009, a drop of 44% over the period 2000-2009 or a decline of 5.7% per annum. During the same period, the overall decrease in accident rate 910 of RTA Number Percent 760 4618 1875 10.48 63.67 25.85 3485 1560 1190 1018 7253 48.05 21.51 16.41 14.04 100.00 by RTA per 1000 vehicles Table 2: Percent distribution of accident and injury by causes according to sex, Oman 2000 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) RTA by Age of Drivers Age of the drivers involved with RTA shows negative association with the RTA in Oman. Distribution of the accident by drivers age indicate that young drivers are more likely to be involved with accidents than their older counterparts, as 70% of the accident happened to drivers aged 17-36 years. The proportion of accident declined with the age of the drivers (Table 5). traffic accident in Oman, since as many as half (50%) of the accident occurred due to high speeding. Negligence or careless driving is the second most important causes of accident, accounting 29% of the accidents, followed by lack of control of the driver (9%), unsafe distance (3.8%) and overtaking (3%). Although, drink driving is one of the major causes of road traffic accident in many countries, particularly in the West, it shows a very little effect (1.4%) on road traffic accidents in Oman. However, the result is not surprising for Oman, because under the Islamic law, the sale and consumption of alcohol is prohibited in the Sultanate, and the penalty for this offense is also very severe. Table 5: Percent Distribution of drivers involved with accidents by age, Oman 2009 Driver age* 17-26 27-36 37-46 47-56 57+ Total Number of RTA 2543 1942 1007 577 300 6369 Percent 39.93 30.49 15.81 9.06 4.71 100.00 All the aforementioned causes are human factors. It is seen that only 2% cases road accident happened other than human related causes, such as, vehicle defects, road defects or weather condition, and 98% cases road accident happened due to human related causes. The result is consistent with the recent studies that documented that human actions are sole or a contributory factor for 90-95% of traffic crashes (Lewin, 1982; Rumar, 1985; Evans, 1991; Elander et al., 1993). *Age of drivers was missing for 884 RTA cases, the distribution presents the remaining 6369 cases Timing of occurrence of RTA Table 6 presents the distribution of RTA by time of occurrence. Overall, accident happened more during day time (59%) than night time (41%) and most RTA incident occurred between 9.00 hours and 20.00 hours time. About two-third (66.5%) of the road accidents in Oman in 2009 happened during 9.00 20.00 hours time. Thus, 9.00-16.00 hours of the day time and 17.00-20.00 hours of the night time are the pick hours of occurrence of RTA incidence in Oman, while traffic accidents are less likely to occur during 1-8 hours of the night time in Oman. Among the weekdays, Thursday shows the highest frequency of occurrence of road traffic accident, while Friday and Sunday the least. Table 7: Distribution of accident by causes of accident, Oman (200-2009) Table 6 Percent distribution of RTA by timing of occurrence, Oman 2009 Timing of RTA Time of the day Day time Night time Time (hours) of occurrence 1-4 5-8 9-12 13-16 17-20 21-24 Week days Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Total Number Percent 4278 2975 58.98 41.02 629 742 1641 1551 1629 1061 8.67 10.23 22.63 21.38 22.45 14.63 1040 977 1020 1048 1024 1158 986 7253 14.34 13.47 14.06 14.45 14.12 15.97 13.59 100.00 Causes of accident* Speeding Negligence Fatigue Drink-Driving Overtaking Weather Condition Sudden Stop Unsafe Distance Lack of Control Vehicle Defects Road Defects 2005 31.72 57.90 0.12 0.85 1.71 0.14 0.04 4.48 1.94 0.98 0.12 2006 53.06 36.97 0.03 0.77 1.67 0.25 0.11 3.55 2.66 0.81 0.11 2007 60.62 23.80 0.15 1.05 2.20 0.58 0.41 3.05 6.51 1.45 0.18 2008 59.31 11.55 0.16 2.09 5.25 0.45 0.88 4.74 13.33 1.93 0.31 2009 51.62 8.48 0.25 2.37 5.16 1.79 1.17 3.31 22.60 2.45 0.80 Total 50.94 29.28 0.13 1.36 3.03 0.59 0.48 3.82 8.62 1.46 0.28 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * Data were available for 2005-2009 from ROP source Table 7 also presents the trends in different causes of road traffic accidents over the period 2005 to 2009. It is to be noted that despite law against consumption of alcohol, the proportion of road accident attributed to drink-driving shows increasing trends in Oman over the period. For example, the proportion of traffic accident related to drink-driving increased from less than one percent in 2005 to more than 2% in 2009. It is encouraging to note that excess speed and negligence, the two main causes of road traffic accident in Oman, show declining trends over the period 2000-2005. However, some other important causes of road traffic accident, such as, lack of driver’s control and over taking show increasing trends over the years. Among the non-human factors, the proportion of road traffic accident shows increasing trends for vehicle defects. Causes of Road Traffic Accidents Table 7 shows the distribution of RTAs by causes of accidents during 2000-2009 in Oman. It may be seen that speeding appeared as the main cause of road 911 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) DISCUSSION The findings of this study indicate that the growth of automobile is faster than the growth of the Omani population. It has been observed that during the 10 year study period from 2000 to 2009, the population of Oman increased by about 2.0% per annum, while the automobile fleet in the country increased by 4.3% per annum. At the same period, the new registration of automobile increased by 10% per annum. particular region (Al Ismaily and Probert, 1998). As a result, there is no much demand from general public for introduction of bus services, and the government in Oman will also be reluctant to subsidies public transport, especially if a significant proportion of the passengers using the service are not Omani citizens. It is encouraging to note that the rate of RTA shows an appreciable decline in Oman during the 10-year study period between 2000 and 2009, despite the fact that the number of vehicles on the roads and new driving licenses as well as the population increased over the study period. The number of accidents fell down from 13,040 cases in 2000 to 7,253 in 2009, a drop of 44% over the period 2000-2009 or a decline of 5.7% per annum. On the average there are 230 vehicles per 1,000 population in Oman, which is higher than many middle income countries, but lower than the other Arab Gulf countries. The level of automobiles usage shows increasing trends in Oman, and between 2000 and 2009, it has increased by 26%. In the absence of railway network, water-ways or bus services within the city or suburban area, private car and shared private taxi services are the major modes of personal transport in Oman. The data indicate that private car represents 70% of the registered vehicles in Oman. The rate of possession of private car per 1,000 population increased from 126 in 2000 to 195 in 2009. While unavailability of public or private bus communication system causes inconvenience to general public, the excessive dependence on private cars leads to heavy traffic, a large number of accidents, degradation of urban environment and high individual expenditure on transport (Belwal and Belwal 2010). In recent time, all the big cities, particularly Muscat, the capital city of the country, increasingly experiencing heavy traffic congestion due to excessive dependence on private car and shared taxi services in the absence of bus or rail communication. Other Gulf countries are also facing similar problems due to the rapid growth in private vehicle ownership, and have introduced public bus transportation in major urban cities in a limited scale. As regard the type of accident, about 70% of the accidents are due to collision: 48% with other vehicles and 22% with fixed objects. Sixteen percent of the accidents were due to overturn and 14% were due to run-over the pedestrians. The distribution of RTA by the type of severity indicate that nearly twothird (64%) of the RTA caused injury, while 10% caused fatality and the rest 26% were with minor or no causality. Young drivers over represents accident cases in Oman, as 70% of the road traffic accidents happened to drivers aged 17-36 years. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue in most countries (Williams, 2003; Ivers et al., 2009). It is, therefore, crucial to understand the young novice drivers' risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions, and take appropriate action to improve the situation in Oman. Overall, accident happened more during day time (59%) than night time (41%) and most RTA incident occurred between 9.00 and16.00 hours of the day time and 17.00 and 20.00 hours of the night time. Among the weekdays, Thursday, which is weekly holiday in Oman, shows the highest frequency of occurrence of road traffic accident. In Oman, public bus service or bus service in general is not the preferred choice of transport for the citizens. Buses are often considered to be a low status, foreign mode of transport for the underprivileged (Al Ismaily and Probert, 1998). Even among those with no private cars, buses are considered to be inappropriate to the needs of ordinary citizens and inconvenient. On the behavioral side, people are basically addicted to using their private cars, while cars for some are a distinct social status symbol. Women folk are less willing to adopt public transport, as they feel more comfortable and secure in their personal cars (Belwal and Belwal, 2010). Besides, because of very hot temperature which ranges from 40-50 degrees Celsius for almost six months, starting from March to August, it is difficult for the people to wait for buses on the road. Another factor is the low density of the population and the population is scattered unevenly in different regions, which imposes a serious challenge to transport planners in offering specific solution for a The study results indicate that excessive speeding is the main cause of road traffic accident in Oman. About half (50%) of the total road traffic accidents in Oman is due to speeding followed by negligence or careless driving (29%). Among other causes of RTA, lack of control of the drivers (9%), driving with unsafe distance (3.8%) and overtaking (3%) are important. Drink-driving contribute very little (1.4%) to traffic accident in Oman, due to Islamic law restricting the sale and consumption of alcohol in Oman. The study findings indicate that about 98% of the RTAs are related to human factors which are preventable. The result is consistent with other research findings. According to the 2009 ‘global status report on road safety’, 62% of the countries 912 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) have speed limit on urban roads less than or equal to 50 km/h, 29% of the countries have speed limit 51-70 km./h, 6% have 71-90 km/h and only 2% countries (mostly the Arabian Gulf countries) have speed limit more than 90 km/h (WHO, 2009). It also shows that Oman is the single country with maximum speed limit of 120 km/h in urban roads. Among other Arab gulf countries, the maximum speed limit in urban roads are 50 km/h in Bahrain, 60 km/h in UAE, 80 km/h in Saudi Arabia, 100 km/h in Qatar, and 100 km/h in Iraq. Research on effective speed management indicates that the speed limits on urban road should not exceed 50 km/h (Transport Research Centre (Transport Research Centre, 2006). Many countries with good safety records have adopted this recommendation, authorizing local level authority to reduce the national level speed limit (WHO, 2009). A 5% increase in average speed leads to an approximately 10% increase in crashes that causes injuries, and a 20% increase in fatal crashes. Apart from reducing road traffic injuries and deaths, lowering the average traffic speed can have other positive effects on Heath (Transport Research Centre, 2006). building about the risk of traffic accident among the road users, and lack of strict driving license policy could be the possible reasons for increasing RTA and RTA-related fatalities in Oman. Information, education and communication (IEC) campaign to raise awareness about the seriousness of road traffic crashes among the road users, along traffic week, and effective implementation of road safety measures may help reduce the tragedy of RTA in Oman. Further research is needed to identify the root causes of increasing RTA and RTA-related fatalities in Oman. The ROP data collection system also need to be evaluated and modernized. Oman needs a sustainable transport policy to reduce the traffic volume and its sever consequences. But the prospect of introduction bus services, public or private, in Oman is very slim in the near future, because of the perception and negative attitude of the common people towards bus services, as well as cultural and environmental factors. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the Royal Oman Police (ROP), especially the Directorate General of Traffic (DGT), for providing data and supporting documents to conduct this study. Since the late 1990s Oman has developed an excellent roadway network, due to the sizeable expenditure on this sector. Most of the roads are now dual carriage roads, lighted up properly at night, well equipped with traffic signs and signals. Moreover, many safety interventions were made to curb RTAs including the enforcement of speed limits, by speed radar systems, provision of median barriers, steel guard rails along road edges, traffic safety awareness campaigns, etc. All these improvement may have impact on declining trends in the rate of RTA in Oman. The declining trends in the rates of RTA may also partly be related to the changing denominators of the rate, as both the population and automobile usages are increasing over the study period. REFERENCES Al-Ismaily, H.A., and Probert, D. 1998. Transport policy in Oman, Applied Energy, 61, 79-109. Al-Riyami, A., Afifi, M., Al-Kharusi, H., Morsi, M., 2000. National Health Survey, 2000. Vol. 1, Study of life style risk factors. Muscat (Oman): Ministry of Health. Belwal, R., and Belwal, S. 2010. Public Transportation Services in Oman: A Study of Public Perceptions, Journal of Public Transportation, 13, 121. The main limitation of this research is its limited data source. As the study is mainly based on secondary data from ROP, it was not possible to do cause and effect analysis using statistical model to uncover the underlying reasons for high rate of RTA in Oman. The results of the study need to be interpreted with caution as they are likely to be under estimated due to underreporting of traffic events in ROP source. However, there is no systematic effort to investigate the consistency of ROP data, for instance by conducting parallel studies on accident occurrence, hospital data and overall mortality statistics. To collect accurate and consistent data over the years, ROP personnel should be trained to complete the data form accurately and collect proper data. Bener, A., Breger, A.S. and Al-Falasi, A.S., 1994. Risk taking behaviour in road traffic accidents. Journal of Traffic Medication, 23, 65–70. DiGuiseppi, C., Rosman, D.I., and Li, L. 1997. Influence of changing travel patterns on child death rates from injury: trend analysis. BMJ 314, 710–713. El-Sadig, M., Norman, J.N., Lloyd, O.L., Romilly, P., and Bener, A., 2002. Road traffic accidents in the United Arab Emirates: trends of morbidity and mortality during 1977–1998. Accident Analysis and Prevention 34, 465–476 Elvik, R., 1995. Analysis of official economic valuations of traffic accidents fatalities in 20 motorised countries. Accident Analysis and Prevention 27, 237–247. CONCLUSION The rapid growth of automobile-oriented culture in Oman without proper education and awareness 913 Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 3(6):907-914 (ISSN:2141-7024) Han, S. S., 2010. Managing motorization in sustainable transport planning: the Singapore experience. Journal of Transport Geography, 18, 314–321 World Health Organization (WHO), 2000. The World Health Report 2000: Health Systems—Improving Performance. World Health Organization, Geneva. Ziyad, A. H., and Akter, S., 2011. Incidence and trend of road traffic injuries and related deaths in Kuwait: 2000-2009. Injury, doi:10.1016/j. injury.2011.09.023 Ivers, R., Senserrick, T., Boufous, S., Stevenson, M., and Chen, H., 2009. Novice driver’s risky driving behaviour, risk perception, and crash risk: Findings from the DRIVE study. American Journal of Public Health, 99(9), 1638-1644. Koushki, P.A., and Balghunaim, F.A., 1990. Determination and analysis of unreported road accidents in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Journal of Engineering Sciences (King Saud University), 2. Lawrence, J., Blincoe, J., and Barbara, M.F., 1992. The economic cost of motor vehicle crashes. DOT HS 807 (876), I.1–I.14 Lave, C., 1992. Cars and Demographics. University of California Transportation Center, 108 Naval Architecture Building, Berkley. Ministry of Health (MoH), 2009. Annual Health Report 2008. Muscat (Oman): Ministry of Health. Ministry of National Economy (MoNE), 2010. Statistical Year Book 2010, Issue 38, Number 2010. Muscat (Oman): MoNE. www.mone.gov.om Royal Oman Police (ROP), 2009. Traffic Statistics 2009. Sultanate of Oman: Directorate General of Traffic, ROP. Transport Research Centre, 2006. Speed management report. Paris: OECD publishing. United Nation, 2011. United National World population prospects: 2011 Revision Vägverket, 2006. Variabel hastighet i korsningar. Tillämpningsrapport. Variable speed limit at intersections. Application report. In Swedish, English summary. Publ 2006:141 Wayatt, J.P., Beard, D., Gray, A., Busuttil, A., and Robertson, C.E., 1996. Rates, causes and prevention of deaths from injuries in South-East Scotland. Injury 27, 337–340. Williams, A.F., 2003. Teenage drivers: patterns of risk. Journal of Safety Research, 34, 5-15. World Health Organization (WHO), 2009. Global status report on road safety: Time for action, Department of Violence & Injury Prevention & Disability. WHO, Geneva, Switzerland. www. who.int/violence_injury_prevention_safety/2009 914 Strategy to improve road safety in developing countries Abdulbari Bener, PHD, MFPHM, Fikri M. Abu-Zidan, FRCS, DipApplStats, Abdel K. Bensiali, MSc, PhD, Ahmad A. Al-Mulla, MD, DrPH, Khair S. Jadaan, ITMA, MASCE. ABSTRACT Objective: To review the road safety situation in developed and developing countries compared with the Arabian Gulf countries and suggest a strategy to improve it. The role of road engineers in reducing accidents is highlighted. Methods: This is a retrospective study of road traffic accidents (RTAS) for a period from 1988 to 1998 in Arabian Gulf Countries. The data was taken from the Directorate of Traffic and Ministry of Health records in Gulf Countries. Additional data was obtained from other sources including the World Health Organizations Statistics Annuals, International Road Federation, Transport Road Research Laboratory and accident facts publications. Overall fatality and injury rates of RTAs were calculated. Results: The lack of reliable data is a serious problem in most of the developing countries. It is quite reasonable to assume that the incidence of accidents is much larger than oad traffic accidents (RTAs) are recognized as a R growing public health problem in the Arabian Gulf and other developing countries. The discovery of oil 1-4 around the middle of the last century has changed many aspects of life in the Arabian Gulf Countries. The increased number of population and vehicles were accompanied by expanding road construction programs. Nevertheless, change in the behavior of drivers was slower.3 The result was a large number of traffic accidents that have high serious fatality. The magnitude of the road safety problem varied between different countries. Recent research has shown that many developing countries have a serious road accident actually reported. A comparison of vehicle ownership levels and safety parameters in both developed and developing countries is presented to highlight the relative seriousness of the road safety situation in different countries. The fatality rates (per population and per vehicles) are selected for comparison purposes from developed and developing countries. Conclusion: Road traffic accidents continue to be a major cause of mortality and morbidity in the Arabian Gulf Countries leading to substantial wastage of life and national resources. Further investigation is essential and will require close inter-sectoral collaboration between, traffic police, health, law, and transport authorities. Developing a research strategy for prevention will reduce casualties and death on the road. Saudi Med J 2003; Vol. 24 (6): 603-608 problem and that accident rates are higher than those of western industrial countries. 5-6 Road traffic accidents are a significant but preventable, cause of death, disability and economic loss in developing countries.7-8 Motor vehicle injuries are the third most important cause of death in developing countries.9 This affects mainly the young males who are economically active. It is projected that RTAs will be the second cause of disabilityadjusted life years in a developing countries.7 In United Arab Emirates RTAs are the second cause of death for all age groups.10-11 Despite that, there is a low appreciation for its health and economical burden.12 World Health Organization13 (WHO) has stressed the From the Department of Medical Statistics & Epidemiology (Bener), Department of Public Health & Disease Control (Al-Mulla), Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar, Department of General Practice and Remote Health Care Unit (Bener), Aberdeen University, United Kingdom, Department of Surgery (Abu-Zidan), Faculty of Medicine, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, Red Crescent (Bensiali), Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, and the Department of Civil Engineering (Jadaan), Faculty of Engineering, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan. Received 9th November 2002. Accepted for publication in final form 5th February 2003. Address correspondence and reprint request to: Prof. Abdulbari Bener, Advisor WHO and Head of Department of Medical Statistics & Epidemiology, Hamad Medical Corporation, PO Box 3050, Doha, Qatar. Tel. +974 4391404/4391405. Fax. +974 4391284. E-mail: abener@hmc.org.qa or abaribener@hotmail.com 603 Strategy to improve road safety ... Bener et al importance of adequate data on traffic injuries. Accurate epidemiological data from many developing countries are rare or difficult to find.2-14 Data on injury from developing and Arabian Gulf Countries are primarily based upon hospital logs2-10 or police records.1,3,10,11,14-17 A rapid rise in vehicle ownership occurred during the 1960s in Latin America, when accident rates also peaked and have remained at a high level since then. The annual increase in vehicle ownership in Asia is 12-18%, yet road networks and safety measures have not kept pace, resulting in a dramatic increase in the number and rate of accidents. In most African countries, vehicle ownership is limited and traffic is generally less crowded.1 However, the dramatic growth of urban population caused a rapid rise in urban vehicle ownership and accidents. This study aims to review the road safety situation in developed and developing countries, compares this with the road safety in the Arabian Gulf Countries and suggests a strategy to improve it. The role of road engineers in reducing accidents is highlighted. Methods. Data was obtained from the official statistical reports on road traffic accidents, injuries and fatalities and Ministry of Interior's Yearly Statistical Report and the Annual Reports of the Directorate of Traffic and Ministry of Health Annual Reports.18 Fatality is included, according to WHO criteria, if it occurs within 30 days from the accident. The annual statistical report contains information on the number of registered vehicles, number and nature of accidents, causes of road accidents, number of fatalities and casualties, age and gender of victims and causal factors. Additional data was obtained from various sources, including Ministry of Health, Health Statistics Annual Report for the period from 1988 and 1998, 19 various edition of the WHO Statistics Annuals, International Road Federation, Transport Road Research Laboratory and Accident Facts publications. Results. I. Accident rates, trends and costs. Many parameters have been used to describe the accident problem. These include the number of fatalities, fatality rates, 20 (fatality per 10,000 vehicles, per 100,000 persons or per million vehicles-km) and fatality index. Comparison of vehicle ownership levels and safety parameters between developed and developing countries may help to highlight the relative seriousness of the road safety situation in different countries. The fatality rates (per population and per vehicles) are selected for comparison purposes since information on vehicle usage is not yet available in many developing countries. The results are shown in Table 1 and in Figure 1. The changing pattern in vehicle ownership levels and fatality rates over time was also investigated for selected developed and developing countries. The percentage changes in vehicles per person and in fatality rates over the 10-year-period (1988-1998) were calculated and the results are given in Table 2. However, such comparisons should be treated with caution due to its variations between countries in definition, degree of motorization 604 Saudi Med J 2003; Vol. 24 (6) www.smj.org.sa and accuracy of data. In addition misleading conclusions may be drawn if only one of the fatality rates is considered.21 Attempts have been made to relate vehicle ownership and fatality rates per vehicle for both developed and developing countries resulting in a number of predictive models. A summary of these models is shown in Table 3. This approach was subjected to criticism and different models were produced which incorporate more factors that are believed to contribute to traffic accidents. Such model was developed for rich developing countries.22 An attempt was made to test the relationship between fatality rate and other parameters that are believed to have some impact on fatalities in the United Arab Emirates.3 The parameters used were as follows: vehicle per-person; gross national product (GNP) per capita; population per physician; population per hospital bed; and percentage of the school age population attending schools. The reason for choosing parameters is that they are believed to reflect some social, economic, and health characteristics of Arabian Gulf Countries with sufficient variable data. Simple regression analysis was carried out to quantify separately the dependence of the fatality (per licensed vehicle) on those parameters. The logarithmic values of fatality rates per vehicle in Arabian Gulf Countries were related to the above parameters. The results of regression analysis obtained showed that the fatality rates were found: to decrease with increasing vehicle ownership; to decrease with increasing GNP per capita; decrease with increasing percentage of the school age population attending school; increase with population per physician; and increase with population per hospital bed. Discussion. The above results, bearing in mind data limitations, shed some light on how social and economic parameters might affect the road safety situation in a particular country. The results also suggest that road accidents fatality rates could be reduced by improving medical services and education. The estimation of accident costs is difficult and particularly in developing countries. Nevertheless, correct costing is needed to accurately determine the cost effectiveness of traffic management schemes.13,16 Traffic accidents in developing countries are costing an enormous amount of money,2,23 (an estimated 1-2% of GNP) much of which must be paid in hard currency, since vehicles and medicines are usually imported. On the average, the total costs of road accidents, including an economic valuation of lost quality of life, were approximately 2.5% of the GNP.24 Excluding the valuation of lost quality of life, road accidents cost an average 1.3% of the GNP. When valuation of lost quality of life is included, costs ranged from 0.5-5.7% of GNP. When valuation of lost quality of life is disregarded, costs ranged from 0.3-2.8% of GNP.25 However the losses caused by traffic accidents are quite heavy in both developed and developing countries (as indicated in Table 4) and if they are to be reduced substantially, a comprehensive strategy for accident reduction and prevention is required.25 Strategy to improve road safety ... Bener et al II. Factors contributing to accidents. Most of the factors affecting accident occurrence and rates may be grouped and labeled as "economical" factors. The World Bank26 relates much of the accident problem in developing countries to a shortage of funds, for both owners of vehicles and governments. A study into the factors affecting traffic accidents in different countries may conveniently divide them into 2 groups: a) Direct factors - which contribute directly to the occurrence of individual accidents. These include: road user behavior, driver's ability and attitude, traffic engineering, roads and environment, and medical services. b) Indirect factors - that contribute to the total population and rates of accidents in the country. They include demographic (population structure and distribution), and vehicle population and characteristics (number, type, usage and occupancy). Many studies have shown that these factors contribute to higher accident risks or to more serious accidents. In developing countries the resource constraints, especially of hard currency may produce the following consequences. Moreover, road user behavior is reckless. Studies show that drivers routinely ignore traffic laws22,27 and pedestrians routinely walk in the middle of streets and cross without checking for traffic. Hobbs28 has reported that in general, driver's errors, often accompanied by law violations, are in the chain of events leading to more than 90% of all highway accidents. However, the nature of behavior differs between countries. While alcohol, for example, is found to be the most common causes of accidents in many developed countries, it is negligible effect in Islamic countries where the law prohibits alcohol drinking.1-3 Investigations into some aspects of driver behavior in some rich developing countries2,3,29,30 indicated that drivers acquire many dangerous and harmful driving habits and that driver observations of traffic regulations is poor. In recent years, many countries have launched integrated road safety programs which attempt to incorporate all the diverse elements related to accidents and casualties31 which is expected to increase the efficiency of road safety work and generate new solutions to the accident problem. III. Strategies for better road safety. Comprehensive strategy for accident reduction and prevention is required to improve road safety in any country. World Health Organization13 has proposed such a strategy and produced guidelines that draw a clear distinction between accident reduction and accident prevention, with both is being necessary. Theoretically, reduction of accidents requires: (i) Reducing personal travel (and consequently road traffic). (ii) Reducing the risk, severity and consequences of road accidents. These approaches can be applied in a variety of ways and road safety improvement measures may be broadly classified into 2 groups: 1) "Technical" - which are direct measures intended mainly to improve safety. These include measures related to land use development, road and road user, vehicle design, traffic laws and their enforcement, medical services and insurance premiums. 2) "Institutional" - which can improve road safety indirectly and are related to road safety organization, financing, research and development and staff education and training. An accident reduction program should entail the following stages: a) Identification of problem locations through the analysis of accident data. b) Diagnosis of the symptoms (namely factors involved in accident occurrence). c) Selection of the best treatment and program of work. d) Monitoring of the effects of the program. III.1 Strategy for developing countries. The model derived by Jacobs and Cutting27 using 1980 data from 20 developing countries and that derived by Smeed32 using 1938 data from 20 developed countries (Table 3) suggest that the situation in developed countries in 1938 is similar to that in developing countries in 1980. In terms of vehicle ownership and general approaches to the safety problem, this may well be the case. However, the suggestion of similarity is not true in many other aspects affecting road safety such as roads, user behavior and law enforcement. Wider social and behavioral differences between developed and developing countries must be considered when assessing the potential for road accident reduction in developing countries.2-4,10 A multidirectional approach should be considered for the overall reduction of traffic accidents in developing countries. A traffic safety management system as shown in Figure 2 could be adopted and the activities coordinated and applied collectively. Based on findings of the World Bank report,33 this stresses the importance of improving systems for data collection and analysis; establishment of official, national coordinating committees and a small team working full time on road safety; and training traffic engineers to analyze accidents, conduct limited safety studies to identify the most important problems, convince officials to take action and design and evaluate corrective measures. Finally, the complexity of factors influencing road safety and the wide variety of available counter measures call for a systemic approach of road safety activities. Carlsson and Hedman34 suggested simplified framework for such an approach as follows: setting of goals, data collection and analysis, identification of safety measures, setting of priorities, and activities related to the selected safety programs which include design, financing, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. III.2 Strategy for developed countries. Wellplanned and timed strategy should be launched against RTAs. These accidents cause high mortality and inflict heavy economical losses. This strategy should be comprehensive and not incremental. In developed countries, where there is a better appreciation of the problem, the remedy requires commitment from both the officials and the public and should take the form of a positive strategy from a coordinated group of decision makers. The study should outline the policy and strategy, the means and the resources needed to face this serious problem and set targets to achieve during set periods of time.35 It produced a policy that called for road safety management on national and local levels. www.smj.org.sa Saudi Med J 2003; Vol. 24 (6) 605 Strategy to improve road safety ... Bener et al Table 1 - Motorization levels and fatality rates for various countries during the period of 1988-1998. Countries Vehs/10,000 Fats/10,000 Fats/10,000 persons vehicles persons Table 2 - Percentage change in vehicle ownership and fatality rates in selected countries during the period of 1988-1998. Countries Vehs/10,000 Fats/10,000 Fats/10,000 persons vehicles persons Developing countries Brazil Chile Ethiopia Jordan Korea (South) Malaysia Morocco* Niger Pakistan Thailand Tunisia 1000.7 748.6 8.9 770.9 391.5 1111.0 341.0 50.1 40.4 277.6 573.0 4.22 12.79 292.06 17.73 44.72 21.88 31.08 46.68 121.44 12.98 21.24 0.42 0.96 0.26 1.37 1.75 2.43 1.06 0.23 0.49 0.36 1.22 Developing countries Brazil Chile Ethiopia Jordan Korea (South) Malaysia Morocco* Niger Pakistan Thailand Tunisia 48.9* 467.5 43.6† 124.0* 417.8* 83.1* 16.0* 7.3* 86.2* 74.5* 78.8* 5.7† 51.5† 40.6* 63.4† 69.9† 43.8† 37.0† 24.9† 43.2† 64.1† 28.2† 40.2* 18.7† 20.4† 18.1† 55.8* 2.9* 26.9† 19.3† 6.1* 37.4† 28.8* Arabian Gulf countries Bahrain Kuwait Oman Kingdom of Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Qatar 2458.9 3014.1 1395.5 4193.2 1892.3 2186.6 6.57 4.84 16.37 6.36 11.29 7.34 1.62 1.46 2.28 2.66 2.10 1.58 Arabian Gulf countries Bahrain Kuwait Oman Kingdom of Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Qatar 39.7* -9.5 † 567.3* 192.0* 68.4* 77.2* 60.0† 53.4† 45.2† 65.0† 25.3† 49.5† 44.8† 55.9† 305.1* 3.8 15.4† 9.1† Eastern European countries Bulgaria Hungary Yugoslavia 1452.1 1756.1 1329.2 8.85 8.45 12.75 1.28 1.48 1.78 Eastern European countries Bulgaria Hungary Yugoslavia 89.4* 113.0* 50.5* 42.3† 58.8† 52.8† 9.3* 12.2† 25.6† 3666.5 2219.2 4698.3 4854.7 4545.5 4078.4 5950.3 3111.7 77403.2 3.71 3.05 3.76 2.68 2.13 1.87 4.03 4.85 2.30 1.36 1.18 1.77 1.30 0.97 0.76 2.40 1.51 1.80 Developed countries (Western) Denmark Finland France† Germany (W) Great Britain Japan* New Zealand Spain United States of America 13.6* 14.5† 29.2* 35.8* 26.3* 45.6* 30.5* 60.3* 10.2* 26.3† 47.2† 44.5† 60.8† 39.8† 32.9† 17.4† 28.7† 23.5† 16.3† 21.3† 28.3† 46.8† 23.9† 2.3† 7.8* 14.2* 15.8† Developed countries (Western) Denmark Finland France† Germany (W) Great Britain Japan* New Zealand Spain United States of America Data source: International Road Federation. World Road Statistics.Various Editions (1988-1998) *death within 24 hours, †death within 6 days Vehs - vehicles, Fats - fatalities Data source: International Road Federation. World Road Statistics.Various Editions (1988-1998) *increasing, †decreasing Vehs - vehicles, Fats - fatalities Table 3 - A summary of models relating vehicle ownership and fatality rate. Year of data 1938 1980 1978-1980 1980 COUNTRIES Figure 1 - Road accident fatalities (deaths per 10,000 vehicles) in selected countries, 1988-1998. 606 Saudi Med J 2003; Vol. 24 (6) www.smj.org.sa 1982 Type of countries N of countries Model Developed Developing Developing Developed Gulf and Middle Eastern 20 20 35 20 * F/ †F/ †F/ †F/ V = 0.0003 (V/P) -0.66 V = 0.00036 (V/P) -0.65 V = 0.00039 (V/P) -0.64 V = 0.00021 (V/P) -0.72 11 ‡F/ V = 0.00052 (V/P) -0.60 *Smeed, 32 †Jacobs and Cutting,27 ‡Jadaan 23 F - fatalities from road accidents, V - number of vehicles, P - population Strategy to improve road safety ... Bener et al Table 4 Countries Year Currency Cost (USD) millions Ref. no. Developing countries Ethiopia India Jordan 1981 1983 1985 GBP IRs JD 10.6 2,3676 41.4 (62.7) 5 26 24 Table 4 - Indicative cost of traffic accidents in selected countries. Rich developing countries Kuwait 1982 Libya 1978 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 1985 KD USD SR 115 (396.6) 160 7,366 (1,959) 6 30 2 Figure 2 - Traffic safety management system for developing countries. Developed countries Australia New Zealand United Kingdom United States of America AUD NZD GBP USD 1,591 510 2.182 57,199 26 26 26 26 1978 1983 1981 1980 GBP - Great Britain Pound, IRs - Indian Rupees, JD - Jordanian Dollar, KD Kuwait Dinar, USD - US Dollar, SR - Saudi Riyals, AUD - Australian Dollar, NZD - New Zealand Dollar Figure 2 www.smj.org.sa Saudi Med J 2003; Vol. 24 (6) 607 Strategy to improve road safety ... Bener et al IV. Role of engineers. Road accidents are considered a "public health" problem, which confronts society generally. Engineers must, therefore, work closely with experts in other scientific disciplines such as educators, health and enforcement agencies to effectively tackle the problem. Engineering improvements to road safety can be conveniently subdivided into 3 categories:36 improvements to the road and its environment; improvements to road vehicles; and improvements aimed at assisting other scientific disciplines. Road and vehicle engineering measures have been well proven effective in reducing accidents. Road safety is more appreciated in developed countries and their accident rates are generally improving. In comparison, the problem may appear of little concern in developing countries and their accident and casualty rates are higher than developed countries. It is unlikely that much progress can be made in substantially reducing accident cost unless a comprehensive strategy is adopted. A multi-directional approach should be considered in developing countries and a safety management system is proposed. Road traffic accidents continue to be a major cause of mortality and morbidity in the Gulf Countries leading to substantial wastage of life and national resources. Further investigation is essential and will require close intersectorial collaboration between, traffic police, health, law, and transport authorities. Developing a research strategy for prevention will reduce casualties and deaths on the road. Acknowledgment. We would like to thank Prof. Leonard Evans (United States of America), Mr. David Lynam (Transport Research Laboratory, United Kingdom), and Ms. Sarah Groombridge (Transport Research Laboratory, United Kingdom) for their valuable information for the preparation of this paper. References 1. Ofosu JB, Abouammoh AM, Bener A. A study of road traffic accidents in Saudi Arabia. Accid Anal Prev 1988; 20: 95-101. 2. Bener A, Jadaan KS. 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Bull World Health Organ 1995; 73: 175-182. 10. Bener A, Achan NV, Sankaran-Kutty M, Ware J, Cheema MY, Al-Shamsi MA. Casualty risk reduction from safety seat belts in a desert country. J Roy Soc Health 1994; 114: 297-299. 11. Bener A, Alwash R. A perspective on Motor vehicle Crash Injuries and Speeding in the United Arab Emirates. Traffic Injury Prevention 2002; 3: 61-64. 608 Saudi Med J 2003; Vol. 24 (6) www.smj.org.sa 12. Zwi AB, Forjouh S, Murugusamphillay S. Injuries in developing countries: policy response needed now. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg 1996; 90: 593-595. 13. Norton R, Hyder A, Peden M. The Epidemiology of Road traffic Injuries: What exist, gaps, the role of public health. Consultation to develop a WHO strategy on road traffic injury prevention, Geneva: WHO; 2001. 14. Mohan D. An analysis of road traffic fatalities in Delhi India. Accid Anal Prev 1985; 17: 33-45. 15. Bangdiwala SI, Anzola-Perez E. 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Road traffic accidents in rich developing countries: The case of Libya. Accid Anal Prev 1984; 16: 263-277. 30. Murray CJL, Lopez AD. Mortality by cause for eight regions of the World: Global burden of disease Study. Lancet 1997; 349: 1269-1276. 31. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Integrated Road Safety Programmes, Paris (FR): OECD; 1984. 32. Smeed RJ. Some statistical aspects of road safety research. J Royal Stat Society 1949; 12: 1-34. 33. Ross A, Nwiraria M. Road safety-review of World Bank experience: Need for action. A general operational review paper for the World Bank. Issue 14. Washington (DC): Urban Edge; 1990. 34. Carlsson G, Hedman K. A Systematic Approach to Road Safety in Developing Countries. Technical Paper, Report INU63, the World Bank, Infrastructure and Development Department, January 1990. 35. Bluet J, Fleury D. National and local road safety policies in France. 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