After a careful analysis company Z has found out that they have revenue loss about 30% compared to the previous year. They want to find out what could be the cause as they have not changed their strategies that seemed to be profitable in the past. They also would like to project about their likely profit for the coming year. They hire you as a consultant- manager. Utilizing the concepts covered in this module, prepare a report that could explain some of the losses that might be attributable to the general economic conditions in the country and some factors that are business specific. What would be some of the leading indicators/ coincident indexes that you would consider to help explain the revenue loss and to project for the future profits? As a manager what would be your recommendation to tackle with these problems? Follow APA guidelines for the font, format, references etc. Chapter 3 Productivity, Output, and Employment Chapter Outline • • • • • • The Production Function The Demand for Labor The Supply of Labor Labor Market Equilibrium Unemployment Relating Output and Unemployment: Okun’s Law Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-2 The Production Function • Factors of production – – – – Capital (K) Labor (N) Others (raw materials, land, energy) Productivity of factors depends on technology and management Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-3 The Production Function • The production function Y = AF(K, N) (3.1) – Parameter A is “total factor productivity” (the effectiveness with which capital and labor are used) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-4 The Production Function • Application: The production function of the U.S. economy and U.S. productivity growth – Cobb-Douglas production function works well for U.S. economy: Y = A K0.3 N0.7 (3.2) – Data for U.S. economy—Table 3.1 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-5 Table 3.1: The Production Function of the United States, 1991–2013 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-6 The Production Function • Productivity growth calculated using production function – Productivity moves sharply from year to year – Productivity grew rapidly in the second half of the 1990s, but grew more slowly in the 2000s Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-7 The Production Function • The shape of the production function – Two main properties of production functions • Slopes upward: more of any input produces more output • Slope becomes flatter as input rises: diminishing marginal product as input increases Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-8 The Production Function • The shape of the production function – Graph production function (Y vs. one input; hold other input and A fixed) – Figure 3.1 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-9 Figure 3.1: The production function relating output and capital Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-10 The Production Function • The shape of the production function – Marginal product of capital, MPK = Y/K Figure 3.2 = Key Diagram 1 • Equal to slope of production function graph (Y vs. K) • MPK always positive • Diminishing marginal productivity of capital MPK declines as K rises Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-11 Figure 3.2: The marginal product of capital Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-12 The Production Function • The shape of the production function – Marginal product of labor, MPN = Y/N Figure 3.3 • Equal to slope of production function graph (Y vs. N) • MPN always positive • Diminishing marginal productivity of labor Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-13 Figure 3.3: The production function relating output and labor Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-14 The Production Function • Supply shocks – Supply shock = productivity shock = a change in an economy’s production function – Supply shocks affect the amount of output that can be produced for a given amount of inputs – Shocks may be positive (increasing output) or negative (decreasing output) – Examples: weather, inventions and innovations, government regulations, oil prices Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-15 The Production Function • Supply shocks – Supply shocks shift graph of production function (Fig. 3.4) • Negative (adverse) shock: Usually slope of production function decreases at each level of input (e.g., if shock causes parameter A to decline) • Positive shock: Usually slope of production function increases at each level of output (e.g., if parameter A increases) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-16 Figure 3.4: An adverse supply shock that lowers the MPN Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-17 The Demand for Labor • How much labor do firms want to use? – Assumptions • • • • Hold capital stock fixed—short-run analysis Workers are all alike Labor market is competitive Firms maximize profits Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-18 The Demand for Labor • The marginal product of labor and labor demand: an example – Example: The Clip Joint—setting the nominal wage equal to the marginal revenue product of labor MRPN = P 3 MPN (3.3) – W = MRPN is the same condition as w = MPN, since W = P  w and MRPN = P  MPN Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-19 Table 3.2: The Clip Joint’s Production Function Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-20 The Demand for Labor • The marginal product of labor and labor demand: an example – A change in the wage • Begin at equilibrium where W = MRPN • A rise in the wage rate means W  MRPN, unless N is reduced so the MRPN rises • A decline in the wage rate means W  MRPN, unless N rises so the MRPN falls Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-21 The Demand for Labor • How much labor do firms want to use? – Analysis at the margin: costs and benefits of hiring one extra worker (Fig. 3.5) • If real wage (w)  marginal product of labor (MPN), profit rises if number of workers declines • If w  MPN, profit rises if number of workers increases • Firms’ profits are highest when w = MPN Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-22 Figure 3.5: The determination of labor demand Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-23 Summary 2: Comparing the Benefits and Costs of Changing the Amount of Labor Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-24 The Demand for Labor • The marginal product of labor and the labor demand curve – Labor demand curve shows relationship between the real wage rate and the quantity of labor demanded – It is the same as the MPN curve, since w = MPN at equilibrium – So the labor demand curve is downward sloping; firms want to hire less labor, the higher the real wage Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-25 The Demand for Labor • Factors that shift the labor demand curve – Note: A change in the wage causes a movement along the labor demand curve, not a shift of the curve – Supply shocks: Beneficial supply shock raises MPN, so shifts labor demand curve to the right; opposite for adverse supply shock – Size of capital stock: Higher capital stock raises MPN, so shifts labor demand curve to the right; opposite for lower capital stock Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-26 Table 3.3: The Clip Joint’s Production Function after a Beneficial Productivity Shock Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-27 The Demand for Labor • Aggregate labor demand – Aggregate labor demand is the sum of all firms’ labor demand – Same factors (supply shocks, size of capital stock) that shift firms’ labor demand cause shifts in aggregate labor demand Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-28 Figure 3.6: The effect of a beneficial supply shock on labor demand Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-29 Summary 3: Factors That Shift the Aggregate Labor Demand Curve Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-30 The Supply of Labor • Supply of labor is determined by individuals – Aggregate supply of labor is the sum of individuals’ labor supply – Labor supply of individuals depends on laborleisure choice Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-31 The Supply of Labor • The income-leisure trade-off – Utility depends on consumption and leisure – Need to compare costs and benefits of working another day • Costs: Loss of leisure time • Benefits: More consumption, since income is higher – If benefits of working another day exceed costs, work another day – Keep working additional days until benefits equal costs Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-32 The Supply of Labor • Real wages and labor supply – An increase in the real wage has offsetting income and substitution effects • Substitution effect: Higher real wage encourages work, since reward for working is higher • Income effect: Higher real wage increases income for same amount of work time, so person can afford more leisure, so will supply less labor Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-33 The Supply of Labor • Real wages and labor supply – A pure substitution effect: a one-day rise in the real wage – A temporary real wage increase has just a pure substitution effect, since the effect on wealth is negligible Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-34 The Supply of Labor • Real wages and labor supply – A pure income effect: winning the lottery • Winning the lottery doesn’t have a substitution effect, because it doesn’t affect the reward for working • But winning the lottery makes a person wealthier, so a person will both consume more goods and take more leisure; this is a pure income effect Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-35 The Supply of Labor • Real wages and labor supply – The substitution effect and the income effect together: a long-term increase in the real wage • The reward to working is greater: a substitution effect toward more work • But with higher wage, a person doesn’t need to work as much: an income effect toward less work • The longer the high wage is expected to last, the stronger the income effect; thus labor supply will increase by less or decrease by more than for a temporary reduction in the real wage Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-36 The Supply of Labor • Real wages and labor supply – Empirical evidence on real wages and labor supply • Overall result: Labor supply increases with a temporary rise in the real wage • Labor supply falls with a permanent increase in the real wage Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-37 The Supply of Labor • Real wages and labor supply – The labor supply curve (Fig. 3.7) • Increase in the current real wage should raise quantity of labor supplied • Labor supply curve relates quantity of labor supplied to real wage • Labor supply curve slopes upward because higher wage encourages people to work more Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-38 Figure 3.7: The labor supply curve of an individual worker Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-39 The Supply of Labor • Factors that shift the labor supply curve – Wealth: Higher wealth reduces labor supply (shifts labor supply curve to the left, as in Fig. 3.8) – Expected future real wage: Higher expected future real wage is like an increase in wealth, so reduces labor supply (shifts labor supply curve to the left) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-40 Figure 3.8: The effect on labor supply of an increase in wealth Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-41 The Supply of Labor • Aggregate labor supply – Aggregate labor supply rises when current real wage rises • Some people work more hours • Other people enter labor force • Result: Aggregate labor supply curve slopes upward Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-42 The Supply of Labor • Aggregate labor supply – Factors increasing labor supply • Decrease in wealth • Decrease in expected future real wage • Increase in working-age population (higher birth rate, immigration) • Increase in labor force participation (increased female labor participation, elimination of mandatory retirement) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-43 Summary 4: Factors That Shift the Aggregate Labor Supply Curve Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-44 Labor Market Equilibrium • Equilibrium: Labor supply equals labor demand • Key Diagram 2 • Fig. 3.9 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-45 Figure 3.9: Labor market equilibrium Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-46 Labor Market Equilibrium • Classical model of the labor market—real wage adjusts quickly • Determines full-employment level of employment and market-clearing real wage • Problem with classical model: can’t study unemployment Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-47 Labor Market Equilibrium • Full-employment output • Full-employment output = potential output = level of output when labor market is in equilibrium Y = AF ( K , N ) (3.4) • Affected by changes in full employment level or production function (example: supply shock, Fig. 3.10) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-48 Figure 3.10: Effects of a temporary adverse supply shock on the labor market Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-49 Labor Market Equilibrium • Application: output, employment, and the real wage during oil price shocks – Sharp oil price increases in 1973–1974, 1979–1980, 2003–2008 (Fig. 3.11) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-50 Figure 3.11: Relative price of energy, 1960–2014 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-51 Labor Market Equilibrium • Application: output, employment, and the real wage during oil price shocks – Adverse supply shock—lowers labor demand, employment, the real wage, and the fullemployment level of output – First two cases: U.S. economy entered recessions – Research result: 10% increase in price of oil reduces GDP by 0.4 percentage points Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-52 Unemployment • Measuring unemployment – Categories: employed, unemployed, not in the labor force – Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed – Unemployment Rate = Unemployed/Labor Force – Participation Rate = Labor Force/Adult Population – Employment Ratio = Employed/Adult Population – Table 3.4 shows current data Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-53 Table 3.4: Employment Status of the U.S. Adult Population, May 2015 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-54 Unemployment • Changes in employment status – Flows between categories (Fig. 3.12) – Discouraged workers: people who have become so discouraged by lack of success at finding a job that they stop searching Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-55 Figure 3.12: Changes in employment status in a typical month (May 2015) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-56 Unemployment • How long are people unemployed? – Most unemployment spells are of short duration • Unemployment spell = period of time an individual is continuously unemployed • Duration = length of unemployment spell – Most unemployed people on a given date are experiencing unemployment spells of long duration Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-57 Unemployment • How long are people unemployed? – Numerical example: • Labor force = 100; on the first day of every month, two workers become unemployed for one month each; on the first day of every year, four workers become unemployed for one year each • Result: 28 spells of unemployment during a year; 24 short (one month), four long (one year); so most spells are short • At any date, unemployment = six; four have long spells (one year), two have short spells (one month); so most unemployed people on a given date have long spells Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-58 Unemployment • Application: Unemployment Duration and the 2007-2009 Recession – Mean duration of unemployment rises in recessions – In 2007-2009 recession, the rise in duration was larger than ever before (Fig. 3.13) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-59 Figure 3.13: Mean duration of unemployment, 1960–2015 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-60 Unemployment • Application: Unemployment Duration and the 2007-2009 Recession – Four possible explanations for the increase in duration • • • • measurement issues the extension of unemployment benefits very large job losses weak economic recovery Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-61 Unemployment • Why there are always unemployed people – Frictional unemployment • Search activity of firms and workers due to heterogeneity • Matching process takes time Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-62 Unemployment • Why there are always unemployed people – Structural unemployment • Chronically unemployed: workers who are unemployed a large part of the time • Structural unemployment: the long-term and chronic unemployment that exists even when the economy is not in a recession • One cause: Lack of skills prevents some workers from finding long-term employment • Another cause: Reallocation of workers out of shrinking industries or depressed regions; matching takes a long time Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-63 Unemployment • The natural rate of unemployment (u) – natural rate of unemployment; when output and employment are at full-employment levels = frictional + structural unemployment – Cyclical unemployment: difference between actual unemployment rate and natural rate of unemployment u −u Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-64 Unemployment • In touch with data and research: labor market data – BLS employment report • Household survey: unemployment, employment • Establishment survey: jobs Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-65 Unemployment • In touch with data and research: alternative measures of the unemployment rate – U-1: unemployed 15 weeks or more – U-2: counts job losers or persons who completed temporary jobs, so it does not count people who have quit their jobs – U-3: the official rate, as defined in textbook – U-4: like U-3 but adds discouraged workers (those not looking for work because they do not think they can find a job) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-66 Unemployment • In touch with data and research: alternative measures of the unemployment rate – U-5: like U-4 but adds marginally attached workers (those who say they are not looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months) – U-6: like U-5 but adds persons who are employed part time for economic reasons (those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule) Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-67 Unemployment • In touch with data and research: alternative measures of the unemployment rate – Graph (text Fig. 3.14) shows that all measures move similarly over time – However, U-6 measure in 2015 is quite elevated relative to its past level, while U-3 has returned to a normal level by 2015 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-68 Figure 3.14: Alternative Measures of Unemployment, 1994–2015 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-69 Relating Output and Unemployment: Okun’s Law • Relationship between output (relative to full-employment output) and cyclical unemployment Y −Y = 2(u − u ) Y Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. (3.5) 3-70 Relating Output and Unemployment: Okun’s Law • Why is the Okun’s Law coefficient 2, and not 1? – Other things happen when cyclical unemployment rises: Labor force falls, hours of work per worker decline, average productivity of labor declines – Result is 2% reduction in output associated with 1 percentage point increase in unemployment rate Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-71 Relating Output and Unemployment: Okun’s Law • Alternative formulation if average growth rate of full-employment output is 3%: Y/Y = 3 – 2 u (3.6) • Fig. 3.15 shows U.S. data Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-72 Figure 3.15: Okun’s law in the United States: 1951–2014 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-73 Key Diagram1: The production function Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-74 Key Diagram2: The labor market Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-75 Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-76
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