Background Information (applies to Milestones One through Three):Bayer is a life science firm with a more than 150-year history and core competencies in the areas of healthcare and agriculture. With its innovative products, it contributes to finding solutions major challenges, such as a growing and aging world population requiring improved medical care and an adequate supply of food. Bayer addresses these issues by preventing, alleviating and treating diseases, and helping to provide a reliable supply of high-quality food, feed and plant-based raw materials. Bayer Pharmaceutical is Bayer‘s largest division in terms of total sales. This division focuses on researching, developing and marketing innovative medicines with a positive cost-benefit ratio primarily in the therapeutic areas of cardiology, oncology, gynecology, hematology and ophthalmology. To safeguard long-term growth, Bayer is currently seeking increase its investment in research and development. Besides expanding early research, Bayer is concentrating on the clinical development of active drug substance candidates in the therapeutic areas of cardiology, oncology, hematology and gynecology. In addition, it is selectively expanding and supplementing its development portfolio through licensing agreements and acquisitions. The Crop Science Division of Bayer, on the other hand, focuses on improvement in agricultural sustainability, crop yields and quality, as well as the leveraging of digitization to help make products safer (Bayer, 2016). Bayer’s aim is to help shape the future of the agricultural industry with innovative offerings that increase its productivity, thus generating profitable and sustainable growth for Crop Science and its customers and enabling the production of sufficient food, animal feed and renewable raw materials for a growing world population despite the limited amount of available arable land. This strategy is complementary to its Animal Science Division, which produces animal feed products. Bayer Crop Science Division’s current strategy is to enhance its Crop Protection and Environmental Science portfolio, expand its Seeds business, and to lead the way in innovation and develop holistic solution (Bayer AG, 2016). For purposes of this discussion, assume that Bayer aims to build on its expertise in the integration of seed technology with chemical and biological crop protection.For purposes of this project, assume that Bayer is seeking to acquire Monsanto Corporation. Monsanto, along with its subsidiaries, is a leading global provider of agricultural products for farmers. Through its seeds, biotechnology-trait products, herbicides and precision agriculture tools, Monsanto (Monsanto, 2016) seeks to provide farmers with solutions that help improve productivity, reduce the costs of farming and produce better foods for consumers and better feed for animals. Monsanto has a worldwide distribution, sales and marketing organization for its agricultural-productivity products. In a growing number of locations throughout the world, it produces directly or contracts with third-party growers for corn seed, soybean, vegetable, cotton, canola and other seeds. The global market for its “Seeds and Genomics” segment is increasingly competitive. Both its row crops and its vegetable seed businesses compete with numerous multinational agrichemical and seed marketers globally, and with hundreds of smaller companies regionally.Bayer’s proposal would pair Monsanto, the world's largest seed company, with drug-maker Bayer's growing seed and crop protection portfolio. Upon announcement of the possibility of such a bid, shares of St. Louis-based Monsanto (MON) rose by 8.7% (Kirchfield, et. al., 2016). Across 2015, immediately following announcement of a possible merger between the two firms, Bayer's growing agribusiness division saw sales rise 9% to $11.8 billion, while its healthcare sales rose 19% to $26 billion, as market participants reacted to news of the possible merger. Overall, Bayer's 2015 sales rose 12%, to $52.8 billion (Business Wire, 2014). On the other hand, Monsanto, which makes seeds (corn, cotton, fruits and other vegetables) and crop protection chemicals such as RoundUp, reported sales of $15 billion in its 2015 fiscal year. This was a 5% decline from the previous year (Daily Management Review, 2016). See Table 1, below, for an alternative view of these results.Milestone 1: Evaluation of the ProposalBefore completing this assignment, review the Final Project Document. Background information found in the Final Project Document applies to Milestones One through Three. In the final project, you will assume the role of Chief Financial Officer of Monsanto Corporation. Bayer is considering a bid for United States seed company Monsanto. Assume that relevant tax rate is 35%. EBIT, depreciation, capital spending, and the change in net working capital will grow at the same rate as sales, which is expected to grow at a rate of 3% across the current year, while capital investment will remain stable. Assume that operational results quoted outside of Tables 4, 5 and 6 (income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flows, below), are interim measures to be used for purposes of your calculations.Based on the proposal’s likely effect on shareholder value, determine whether to accept or reject this proposal for $62B, using evidence provided here in Tables 1 through 6, to support your analyses. Evaluate each of the following:Whether to accept or reject this proposal, using evidence drawn from ratio analysis, and time and trend analysis and other evidence from assigned readings covered in Modules One through Three to support your determinations. Compute and include two ratios per each of the four main areas of ratio analysis, including short-term solvency, asset utilization, long-term solvency, and profitability.Evaluate limitations that may exist in using these varieties of analysis to make this determination.

Module 4 - CaseDecision Tree and Value of InformationAssignment OverviewScenario: You are a consultant who works for the Diligent Consulting Group. You have learned about three different investment opportunities and need to decide which one is most lucrative. Following are the three investment options and their probabilities:Option A: Real Estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the cash payoff and probabilities:Required initial investment: $0.75 millionHigh NPV: $5 million, Pr = 0.5Medium NPV: $2 million, Pr = 0.3Low NPV: $0, Pr = 0.2Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique-type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than Option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the payoffs and probabilities:Required initial investment: $0.55 millionHigh NPV: $3 million, Pr = 0.75Medium NPV: $2 million, Pr = 0.15Low NPV: $1 million, Pr = 0.1Option C: High Yield Municipal Bonds. This option has low risk and is assumed to be a Certainty. So there is only one outcome with probability of 1.0:Required initial investment: $0.75 millionNPV: $1.5 million, Pr = 1.0Case AssignmentDevelop an analysis of these three investments, and determine which of them you should choose. Be sure to account for cash paid for each of the three alternatives. If you do not recall how to do this, review the practice exercises in the Background page. Do your analysis in Excel using the Decision Tree add-in or SmartArt graphic, as suggested in the Background page.Write a report to your private investment company and explain your analysis and your recommendations. Provide a rationale for your decision.Upload both your written report and Excel file with the decision tree analysis to the case 4 Dropbox.Assignment ExpectationsExcel AnalysisConduct accurate and complete Excel analysis using decision tree add-in.Written ReportLength requirements: 2–3 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages)Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.Written analysis that supports Excel analysis and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).Write clearly, simply, and logically. Use double-spaced, black Verdana or Times Roman font in 12 pt. type size.Have an introduction at the beginning to introduce the topics and use keywords as headings to organize the report.Avoid redundancy and general statements such as "All organizations exist to make a profit." Make every sentence count.Paraphrase the facts using your own words and ideas, employing quotes sparingly. Quotes, if absolutely necessary, should rarely exceed five words.

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