Business Finance
American Military University Forecasting Methods Discussion

American Military University

Question Description

I’m studying and need help with a Management question to help me learn.

According to the assigned case study, Best Homes is a new home construction company with headquarters in Kansas City, Missouri. They construct only residential homes throughout the U.S. and only new homes. Having started on the East coast in 1945 they expanded to the Midwest and ultimately to the West coast and the South. They build all types of residential new homes from low-end prices to the high-end of the market. Analyze the case study and answer the following questions:

  1. What forecasting methods should the company consider? Please justify.
  2. Use the classical decomposition method to forecast average demand for 2016 by month. What is your forecast of monthly average demand for 2016?
  3. Best Homes is also collecting sales projections from each of its regions for 2016. What role should these additional sales projections play, along with the forecast from question 2, in determining the final national forecast?

Instructions:

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  • The paper should be at least 1,000-words
  • The paper should be APA-compliant paper comprising your response
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  • All charts, graphs, pictures are to go in the appendix (not a substitute for content)
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Final Answer

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Running head: OUTLINE

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Outline
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OUTLINE

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Question 1


Forecasting involves the generation of a number, set of numbers or series of
developments that corresponds to a future development.



Past performance is another technique which bases its prediction on the past. Best homes
could use this technique to predict their expansion to another city based on the
performance of their company in the other cities.



Direct vs. Indirect methods involve the various subordinate units on the department
composing estimates which the company takes a combination of the estimates.



Quantitative techniques which are also referred to as statistical methods pay more
attention to the patterns and the historical data.



Extrapolation method is based on time series, since it believes that the performance of the
series in the past will go on in the future and in the process the future of the company is
predicted.



Economic input output model method is also referred to as end use technique which is
based on the speculation of different sectors of the economy that are interrelated.

Question 2


The demand data has been picked randomly according to the statistics of housing demand
trends from United Sates Censors Bureau statistics.

Question 3


The demand for home ownership grows seasonally due to the increase in population, high
cost on rental house units, social life like marriage, cultural beliefs, and religious beliefs.

OUTLINE


From the generated forecast for 2016, it can be seen that by December of 2016 the
projected sale is expected to increase compared to the other periods, same month.

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Running head: FORECASTING METHODS

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Forecasting methods
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FORECASTING METHODS

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Question 1
Forecasting involves the generation of a number, set of numbers or series of
developments that corresponds to a future development. The company should consider various
techniques of forecasting which are grouped under qualitative techniques, quantitative
techniques, time series techniques of forecasting, casual modeling as well as technological
forecasting. Some of the qualitative methods of research include; market research where by polls
and surveys may be carried out to determine the sale of a commodity. This may be done by
dispatching questionnaires to the current and the prospective consumers. Further, individuals
could be interviewed personally in order to determine whether the consumers would increase or
reduce the consumption of...

chemtai (23943)
UIUC

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