Humanities
Northwestern Michigan College Week 1 What Will NATO Be in 20 Years Questions

Northwestern Michigan College

Question Description

I’m working on a Political Science question and need guidance to help me study.

What will NATO be in 20 years?

Here again is the recipe:

1. Frame your issue, (create an issue relating to NATO)
2. Brainstorm key factors influencing issue
3. Group factors into buckets and ID two key drivers
4. Define the two ends of the spectrum for each key driver
5. Create 2 x 2 matrix based on key drivers and hi/lo values
6. Give each scenario/quadrant a cool name
7. Provide a brief narrative for how each scenario might come to pass
8. Describe briefly the implications of each scenario
9. Generate a list of observable indicators for each scenario so we can tell where the world is headed


THIS IS AN EXAMPLE

  1. What threat does the United States’ induction of Space Force pose to the future security of outer-space and world peace?
  2. Key Factors: Global Peace, Space (outer-space) Warfare, Global Economy and Communication Systems, Global Balance of Power and Security, Global Arms Race, Spatial Militarization.
  3. Two Key Drivers:
  1. Space Security b. Outer-Space Arms Race
  1. Value For Key Drivers

I) Space Security:

  1. Low: State will exercise restraint and seek solution of the violation of UN Treaties and Principles on Outer Space Article III by the United States.
  2. High: States will establish independent space force to protect their interests in outer space.

II) Outer-Space Arms Race:

  1. Low: Restraint of the United State from militarizing outer-space
  2. High: States will introduce military power to protect their interests in the outer-space while launching more satellites.
  1. The 2 x 2 Matrix

Article III Application

Independent Space Forces

US Restraint against Militarization

Scenario A: Just as in Russia, the independent space force will collapse.

Scenario B: As in the law of the Sea, US will protect Space against militarization.

Militarization of outer-space

Scenario C: Peace and spatial border treaties a possibilities

Scenario D: Conventional Space Warfare introduced in form of hacking, cyber warfare, or satellite attacks.

  1. Narratives for Scenarios:
  1. With the United States exercising restraint in the near future under a different administration and leadership “personality”, the independent space force will be abolished and/or normalized as it were under the United States Airforce.
  2. To uphold the establishment of the independent Space Force, the United States will rather be the door keeper when it comes to the affairs of out-space against militarization. China already condemned the establishment of the force as a threat to global peace. They are sure to establish similar force so will other states. However, the experience of the United States and advancement in possible technology will be employed as a deterrence to other states.
  3. With the United States establishment of the Space Force, other states are persuaded to protect their interests in outer-space hence forgoing Article III and militarizing out-space. However, to prevent a full-blown conflict, other treaties will be signed to prevent causing damage to the areas while maintaining interests and technology.
  4. The stay of independent Space forces leading to the militarization of outer-space will compel states to indulge in unconventional warfare tactics as bugging of satellites, and communication systems, hacking and also cyber-warfare to cause damage to opposing states’ technologies.
  1. Implications of Scenarios:
  1. The world will be calm and out space interdependence will continue leading to growth in global politics and peace at least in terms of outer space.
  2. UN Security Council will enshrine charters that allow for collaboration with the United States to protect outer-space.
  3. Complex territories in outer-space enshrined in complex treaties and charters. This is the least feasible of situations with the rotational sequences of the globe.
  4. Investment in complex outer-space technologies. Private companies as Space X will benefit hugely from the spatial arms race.
  1. Observable Indicators:
  1. Trump administration seem to be the only ones globally considering and implementing an independent force. There is not much discussion in the election politics. Russia tried twice to institute the establishment of an individual space force but both times failed after brief moments.
  2. Huge Investment by the Trump administration towards research and development of outer-space technology and life-research.
  3. This is the less feasible amongst my predictions as the world is not gearing towards it.
  4. Current cyber warfare and budding of technologies are the basics needed to build on attacking satellites.

and I have attached other example

Unformatted Attachment Preview

What will NATO be in 20 years? Western Economic “Health” Increase Decrease NATO Tensions NATO Fractures (1) (2) NATO Thrives NATO Lingers (3) (4) Increase IntraWestern Decrease Tensions Overview: The future of NATO depends primarily on two broad factors. First, the future of the alliance will depend on the level of intra-Western tensions. The rise of nationalist and populist forces within the countries that comprise NATO – particularly the United States – risks fracturing the alliance as these states adopt more isolationist, individualistic policies. On the other hand, the success of the alliance will depend on the economic pressures facing the members of the alliance. If these countries were to experience increased economic pressures such as a recession or internal upheaval over economic inequality, the economic might that undergirds the alliance would be in jeopardy. Box 1: In this scenario, high levels of intra-Western tensions are present, but the economies of these countries remain healthy. While there is tension at the elite level of the alliance, NATO nonetheless continues to operate. Box 2: In this scenario, NATO fractures due to heightened intra-Western tension and increased economic turmoil. Nationalistic/populist forces tend to rise in these environments, which would likely lead to a disdain for more “globalist” organizations such as NATO. Box 3: In this scenario, NATO thrives due to good relations between Western elites and good economic performance. Box4: In this scenario, NATO continues to exist, but is “de-fanged” due to economic turmoil in the West and the inability of these countries to maintain a strong force posturing. ...
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Final Answer

Attached.

What will NATO be in 20 years?

Western Economic “Health”
Increase

Decrease

NATO Tensions

NATO Fractures

(1)

(2)

NATO Thrives

NATO Lingers

(3)

(4)

Increase

IntraWestern
Decrease
Tensions

Overview: The future of NATO depends primarily on two broad factors. First, the future of the
alliance will depend on the level of intra-Western tensions. The rise of nationalist and populist
forces within the countries that comprise NATO – particularly the United States – risks
fracturing the alliance as these states adopt more isolationist, individualistic policies. On the
other hand, the success of the alliance will depend on the economic pressures facing the
members of the alliance. If these countries were to experience increased economic pressures such
as a recession or internal upheaval over economic inequality, the economic might that undergirds
the alliance would be in jeo...

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Purdue University

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