Week 5 Discussion Predictable SurpriseWhatever prompted Al Hoffman, Bob Merrill, and Clem Watts (1950) to write the wry lyrics to "If I Knew You Were Comin' I'd've Baked a Cake," the message is clear: Let me know your plans so I can be prepared. In Irons (2005), the same concept applies: If you knew what was coming, you could have been prepared. Lacking some way to foretell the future, how do you prepare for such an immense catastrophe as Hurricane Katrina?For this Discussion, review the article by Irons from this week's resources.Post by Day 3 your understanding of the relevance and utility of the concept of predictable surprise. How does predictable surprise relate to the criminal justice system? Describe a predictable surprise event other than Hurricane Katrina, and explain its ramifications for the criminal justice system. Finally, explain how a criminal justice organization skilled at forecasting and identifying issues might have prevented this event or greatly reduced its effects.Week 5 Learning Resources This page contains the Learning Resources for this week. Be sure to scroll down the page to see all of this week's assigned Learning Resources.Required Resources Readings Haberfeld, M. R. (2013). Police leadership: Organizational and managerial decision making process (2nd ed.). Boston, MA: Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 7, "When the Event is Just Too Much to Handle: Situational Leadership Theory" (pp. 81–96)Bueermann, J. (2012a). Being smart on crime with evidence-based policing. NIJ Journal, (269), 12–15. Retrieved from http://www.nij.gov/journals/269/Pages/evidence.aspxIrons, L. (2005). Hurricane Katrina as a predictable surprise. Homeland Security Affairs, 1(2), 1–21. Retrieved from http://www.hsaj.org/?fullarticle=1.2.7 Etue, K. K. (2012). No-boundaries policing. In D. R. C. McCullough & D. L. Spence (Eds.), American policing in 2022: Essays on the future of a profession (pp. 49–52). Retrieved from http://www.calea.org/sites/default/files/Policing%202022-p235-pub.pdf

Question 1 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~R≡ ~R 2. N • ~T 3. R ⊃ ~(N • ~T) ∼T  2, Simp (N •∼T)⊃∼R  3, Trans ∼R  2, 3, MT R⊃(∼N∨∼∼T)  3, DM  ∼R  1, Taut Question 2 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. N ∨ C 2. (N ∨ C) ⊃ (F ⊃ C) 3. ~C F⊃C  1, 2, MP N    1, 3, DS ∼F  2, 3, MT ∼N  1, 3, MT ∼C • R  3, Add Question 3 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. A 2. (A ⊃ ~T) ⊃ ~G 3. Q ⊃ (A ⊃ ~T) Q⊃(T⊃∼A)  3, Trans (Q⊃A)⊃∼T  3, Assoc A⊃(∼T •∼G)  2, Exp ∼T  1, 3, MP Q⊃∼G  2, 3, HS  Question 4 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. D ⊃ H 2. ~D 3. ~(D ∨ S) ∼H  1, 2, MT ∼D∨(D⊃H)  2, Add  H⊃D  1, Com S  2, 3, DS ∼D∨∼S  3, DM Question 5 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~U ⊃ (S • K) 2. R ⊃ (~U • ~U) 3. S ≡ ~U (∼U • S)⊃K  1, Exp R⊃U  2, DN R⊃∼U  2, Taut  R⊃(S • K)  1, 2, HS (S⊃U) • (∼U⊃∼S)  3, Equiv Question 6 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. P • (~H ∨ D) 2. ~(~P • ~H) 3. (P ⊃ ~H) • (~P ⊃ H) P ≡ ∼H  3, Equiv ∼H∨D  1, Simp (P •∼H)∨D  1, Assoc P • (H⊃D)  1, Impl  P • H  2, DN Question 7 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~(Q • ~S) 2. ~F ⊃ (Q • ~S) 3. H ∨(Q • ~S) (H • Q)∨(H •∼S)  3, Dist ∼Q∨S  1, DM F  1, 2, MT H  1, 3, DS ~~F 1, 2, MT Question 8 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. Q ⊃ (A ∨ ~T) 2. T 3. A ∨ ~T Q⊃(∼∼A∨∼T)  1, DN (A∨∼T)⊃Q  1, Com (Q⊃A)∨∼T  1, Assoc Q  1, 3, MP A  2, 3, DS Question 9 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. (J • ~N) ∨ T 2. ~(J • ~N) 3. ~T T  1, 2, DS ∼J∨N  2, DM J •∼N  1, 3, DS J • (∼N∨T)  1, Assoc ∼J  2, Simp Question 10 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. (K • ~T) ∨ (K • ~H) 2. ~M ⊃ (K • ~H) 3. ~(K • ~H) ∼K∨H  3, DM K •∼T  1, 3, DS K • (∼T∨∼H)  1, Dist  M  2, 3, MT (∼M • K)⊃∼H  2, Exp Question 11 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~I ∨ ~~B 2. M ⊃ ~I 3. I M⊃∼∼B  1, 2, HS ∼∼B  1, 3, DS ∼M  2, 3, MT ∼I⊃M  2, Com ∼(I •∼B)  1, DM  Question 12 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. A 2. G ⊃ (A ⊃ ~L) 3. ~A ∨ ~G A∨G  3, DN (G⊃A)⊃∼L  2, Assoc ∼L  1, 2, MP ∼G  1, 3, DS G⊃(∼∼L⊃∼A)  2, Trans  Question 13 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. (S • ~J) ∨ (~S • ~~J) 2. S ∨ ~S 3. ~J ⊃ P S  2, Taut ∼J∨∼∼J  1, 2, CD S ≡ ∼J  1, Equiv  J∨P  3, Impl ∼P⊃J  3, Trans Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. (S ⊃ ~F) • (~F ⊃ B) 2. S ∨ ~F 3. ~F S⊃B  1, HS ∼F∨B  1, 2, CD  S  2, 3, DS B  1, 3, MP ∼S  1, 3, MT Question 15 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~M ⊃ S 2. ~M 3. (M ∨ H) ∨ ~S H  2, 3, DS M∨H  3, Simp M∨(H∨∼S)  3, Assoc  ∼S  1, 2, MP M∨S  1, Impl Question 16 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. G • ~A 2. K ⊃ (G • ~A) 3. G ⊃ M (K⊃G )⊃∼A 2, Exp K⊃(∼A • G)  2, Com  (K⊃G) •∼A  2, Assoc K  1, 2, MP M  1, 3, MP Question 17 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~E ⊃ P 2. ~P 3. ~(P ∨ ~H) ∼H  2, 3, DS ∼P •∼(P∨∼H)  2, 3, Conj  ∼P • H   3, DM E  1, 2, MT ∼P⊃E  1, Trans Question 18 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. N ≡ R 2. (N • ~R) ⊃ C 3. N (N⊃R)∨(R⊃N)  1, Equiv N • (∼R⊃C)  2, Assoc C⊃(N •∼R)  2, Com N⊃(∼R⊃C)  2, Exp  R  1, 3, MP Question 19 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. N 2. R ⊃ ~N 3. ~C • (T ⊃ R) ∼C  3, Simp T⊃∼N  2, 3, HS (∼C • T)⊃R  3, Assoc ∼R  1, 2, MT N⊃∼R  2, Trans Question 20 Select the conclusion that follows in a single step from the given premises: 1. ~N • ~F 2. K ⊃ (N • F) 3. U ∨ (K • ~N) ∼K  1, 2, MT (U∨K) •∼N  3, Assoc (K • N)⊃F  2, Exp (U∨K) • (U∨∼N)  3, Dist  ∼(N • F)  1, DM