Final Project Report: Shake Shack BUS 468-001 Business Policy and Strategy Team 3: Chow, Garcia, Ghazanffer, Harish, Hooi, Nguyen, Singh May 14, 2020 Introduction Shake Shack is an American fast casual restaurant that is known to many customers for their well-known juicy burgers and tasty milkshakes. Danny Meyer, a restaurant owner in New York City, founded Shake Shack back in July 2004 with the help of his Union Square Hospitality Group. Their idea for Shake Shack was inspired by hot dog carts and food trucks that offered simple foods like hamburgers, hot dogs, milkshakes, and french fries, made with high quality ingredients. The first Shake Shack location opened its doors to customers in Madison Square Park while showing their support to the park’s first art installation. Since the launching of the first location, 275 other locations have opened both within the United States and internationally. Being in the restaurant industry, it is not uncommon that Shake Shack would be up against many well known companies. Shake Shake most resembles companies like: In-N-Out Burger, Subway, Five Guys, Smashburger, and Noodles & Company. In-N-Out Burger was founded in 1948 by Henry Snyder in California, who also first introduced the idea of a drive-thru hamburger stand. Subway started out from Peter Buck who gave Fred DeLuca the idea of starting a submarine sandwich shop nearly 50 years ago. The first Subway was opened in Bridgeport, Connecticut, serving affordable and freshly made sandwiches. Five Guys was established at Arlington, Virginia in 1986 when founders Jerry and Janie Murrell thought of the idea of serving hand-formed burgers and fresh-cut fries cooked in pure peanut oil. Smashburger was founded in 2007 in Denver, Colorado with the unique style of smashing burgers and cooking them on a flat top grill to give it a unique texture. Another one of Shake Shacks competitors is Noodles & Company, although they offer different cuisine. Noodles & Company delivers the same fast casual dining experience and is a publicly traded company that competes directly with Shake Shack. Similar to the five companies above, Shake Shack is dedicated to serving their customers high quality food that is not only tasty but affordable. With their mission statement of “stand for something good,” Shake Shake has become an enjoyable restaurant to many. Similar to its competition, Shake Shack uses freshly made ingredients, has its own specialty: the Shacksauce, and a dedication for its customer service. Shake Shack is successful in retaining their customers to the point where there are almost always long lines at their locations. Company Issues/Challenges Having only been around since July 2004, Shake Shack has unequivocally made a name for itself, domestically and internationally. That being said, there are concerning signs of a decrease in growth for the fast food chain. As we have already established the vast amount of competitors Shake Shack has, we see the company using its strong image as a higher quality fast food establishment to its advantage. However, there is a theme of this newer 15 year old company which shows that current assets aren’t being used as efficiently as possible. While overall revenue has been rising for the company, Shake Shack’s growth rate has increased by 2.0%, and overall traffic growth only makes up 1.2% of this, according to their third-quarter results in 2019. Shake Shack’s decision to use only one delivery partner, GrubHub, may have contributed to the below percentage growth rate of 2.5% that analysts were expecting from the company. Shake Shack is ending its partnerships with other delivery companies such as DoorDash, Postmates and Caviar. This is limiting their ability to reach more customers, especially now during the coronavirus lockdowns, where customers are relying on food delivery services to avoid leaving their homes. GrubHub themselves have stated recent warnings of slower growth amid intensifying competition, which only further proves challenges for Shack Shack. Instead, the burger chain is deciding to temporarily close some of its restaurants for upgrades this year, which is likely adding to further pressure profits in 2020.While this may add to the customer’s overall experience, the company can be spending its money in more beneficial ways, such as addressing problems the company is facing instead. Not to mention these renovations may prompt the company to raise menu prices even higher than they already are, which can push away future customers. This brings us to the next point of Shake Shack’s very high inventory turnover rate. Due to the company's entire model of differentiation from its competitors for having higher quality fast food, sourcing from farmers, bakers and ranchers directly means that these suppliers have a higher bargaining power, and there are less options of suppliers for the brand, compared to other fast food companies. That being said, Shake Shack doesn’t have to switch up their model of higher quality foods, but can work to continually revamp their menus to fit with in season ingredients that they can supply and in return make more profits on. Being flexible and adapting to new menu items is what Shake Shack will have to do to help this issue of a high inventory turnover rate, especially in their global locations, where these American ingredients may be limited or international tariffs may be in place. Shake Shack also needs to work on expanding and maintaining their international locations. The company has taken the unique approach of creating a global path for themselves as they’ve had locations in London, Istanbul, Dubai and Moscow before even reaching Los Angeles. As these international locations have proven to perform very well, Shake Shack doesn’t put the same emphasis on promotions and remodeling to their international locations as they do for their domestic ones. Adapting to the menu and high quality ingredients of the foreign countries they are in, will only help the global path the company prides itself with establishing this early on. Not to mention allocation of funds to more international locations will help in the company’s growth as they would be expanding their goods to a whole new demographic of customers. Michael Kark, Shake Shacks’ chief global licensing officer even admitted that the Asian market is important to Shake Shack’s growth. Shake Shack has already built a successful model for themselves and a brand recognition which has paved a path in the new world of a more upscale fast food experience. However, if the company continues to not allocate their resources more efficiently in accessibility across more delivery options, reinventing menu items appropriate to seasonal and regional items, and broadening their global scope, growth rates will remain relatively low for the chain restaurant. SWOT Analysis By doing an internal and external analysis, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, as well as threats for Shake Shack can be better understood. Strengths ● Quality Products: Shake Shack prides itself using premium and all-natural ingredients. On their website they say, “Our burgers are made with 100% Angus beef that’s humanely raised, vegetarian fed, and source verified. Our chicken is real white-meat that’s fresh, never frozen. Our flat-top dogs? 100% beef from the pros at Vienna® Beef in Chicago. Our fries are crinkle-cut golden potatoes with no trans fats. And our vanilla and chocolate frozen custards only use real sugar (no high-fructose corn syrup) and milk from dairy farmers who pledge not to use artificial growth hormones.” ● Eco-Friendly Reputation: Shake Shack has made multiple efforts to be eco-friendly. Their paper disposables (ex. fry boxes and burger wrappers) are made with eco-friendly Sustainable Forestry Initiative-certified paper. They participate with Restaurant Technologies Weaknesses ● Limited Traditional Marketing: According to Shake Shacks’ Chief Marketing Officer the company prefers to keep paid media to minimum. They have a strong presence on social media platforms including Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube. Shake Shack prefers to promote through collaborations. These include chefs in local areas, GrubHub, BarkBox, and more. ● Fluctuation in Commodities: Since Shake Shack does not contract commodities, there can be fluctuations in ingredient prices. In their annual reports they have the disclaimer “increased food commodity and energy costs could decrease our Shack-level operation profit margins.” Recently, Shake Shack had to deal with a spike in the cost of beef due to the meat shortage caused by COVID-19. Inc. to have a clean oil management system. Additionally, Shake Shack participates in 1% for the Planet where 1% of their SHACK2O® bottles sold supports the cleanup of water sources around the world. Opportunities Threats ● New Products: Shake Shack has the opportunity to expand their products. Last year, they introduced the Veggie Shack, a vegetarian burger. ● Store Expansion: Last year, Shake Shack built 49 restaurants across 27 states and 13 countries (Klein 2019). Shake Shack has the opportunity to create new stores domestically and internationally. ● Competitors: Shake Shack has many competitors in the American fast casual industry such as In-N-Out Burger, Subway, Five Guys, and Smashburger ● Cheaper Alternatives: Customers can always turn to the lower-quality, cheaper alternative restaurants such as McDonalds and BurgerKing. Leadership Shake Shack’s leadership consists of its CEO, Randy Garutti, former COO of the company. Tara Comonte serves as the President of CFO; prior to this role she was the Chief Financial & Business Affairs Officer and Executive Vice President of Getty Images. Zachary Koff serves as the COO, Jay Livingston as CMO, Dave Harris as CIO, and Andrew McCaughan as CDO. Other leadership consists of Michael Kark as the Chief Global Licensing Officer, Ron Palmese as SVP of General Counsel, Diane Neville as SVP of People Resources, Victoria Shih as SVP Controller, and Jeffrey Amoscato as SVP of Supply Chain and Menu Innovation. Competitive Analysis (Porter’s Five Forces) Competition for Potential New Entrants: It is easy to enter the food industry because of the low barriers. In 2018, the NPD Group found that there were 25,312 fast casual restaurants in the United States. Living in an age where new eateries constantly bring innovation to their businesses, it poses a high concern for Shake Shack. New entrants are able to stay competitive against Shake Shack by matching their prices and providing new or similar products. Competition from Rival Sellers: This is a high concern for Shake Shack because of the low barriers to enter the industry. Shake Shack has a lot of established competitors in the American fast casual industry, including Smashburger that was created after Shake Shack in 2007. The competitors all mentioned before can all pose a threat to Shake Shack because of the similarity in the products being served. Competition from Producers of Substitute Products: For Shake Shack, this is a high threat because of established low price alternatives like McDonalds and Burger King. They are not direct competitors, but they offer a lower price point than Shake Shack. For example, McDonald’s offers their simple plain cheeseburger for around $2-$3 and their specialty burgers for $6-$8 while the Shake Shack burger can range anywhere from $9-$11. Other substitutes include higher scale restaurants that are higher or similar to Shake Shack’s price point. The high threat of substitute products demonstrates that customers can pick and choose the eateries that fit their needs. Supplier Bargaining Power: This is a high concern for Shake Shack because of the nature of the company’s high quality ingredients. Shake Shack partners with farmers, bakers, and ranchers from all over the world to supply ingredients for their products. The suppliers can easily charge more from Shake Shack to increase their profit margins because the suppliers are all carefully selected and fit the company’s high standards. Because of this, it is difficult for Shake Shack to try to find other suppliers so they must comply with the supplier’s price points. The suppliers also have high bargaining power because it can be difficult for Shake Shack to switch from one supplier to another. Customer Bargaining Power: This is a low concern for Shake Shack due to its differentiation from its competitors. The company offers specialty products and unique services that cannot be offered anywhere else and this will decrease customer’s bargaining power. Shake Shack has a large base of customers and has a strong relationship with them and the communities they serve. With the connections and partnerships that Shake Shack has, it increases the likelihood that customers will stick with their restaurant instead of others. This is an advantage to them because customer loyalty can lower the customer bargaining power. Corporate Culture and Values As mentioned before, Shake Shack commits their entire company to “Stand for Something Good” and this is implemented all over their culture and day to day operations. The best way they implement their motto is through the food they serve; they carefully source premium ingredients in everything they serve. This isn’t something that every restaurant can achieve so for Shake Shack to have this commitment, changes the whole industry. Shake Shack also partnered up with companies to give back to the world. For example, Shake Shack partnered with Waterkeeper Alliance to help the cleanup of water sources around the globe and Restaurant Technologies Inc to help eliminate trash and oil waste. Shake Shack also commits to giving back to the communities and charities on a frequent basis through their Shack Gives Back Program. The Shake Shack’s core values include hospitality, team, food and drink, The Shack, and communication. These core values all contribute to how the company runs its business while keeping employees and customers in mind. According to their website, Shake Shack hires leaders that are “committed to championship performance, remarkable hospitality, and active personal growth.” By hiring employees that fit into their core values, the company can ensure that their mission statement can be achieved. This can help contribute to their overall goals and mission statement. The Shacks (Shake Shack establishments) are all carefully constructed with creative and unique designs to create a one of a kind environment that competitors don’t have. Things from the table tops, seats, booths, and walls all fit within the commitment to Stand for Something Good. They are all crafted and designed by local artists and made from sustainable materials. For instance, the classic brown thick table tops that The Shack uses are reclaimed from Brooklyn bowling alley lanes by New York’s Counter Evolution. Comparing these values to its competitors, Financial Analysis Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio= CA CL 2019: Current Ratio=0.8821 2018: Current Ratio=1.6868 2017: Current Ratio =2.7392 Quick Ratio= (CA-Inventory) CL 2019: Quick Ratio= 0.8598 2018: Quick Ratio=1.6576 2017: Quick Ratio =2.6999 Cash Ratio= Cash CL 2019: Cash Ratio=0.3733 2018: Cash Ratio =0.4129 2017: Cash Ratio =0.6321 Financial Leverage Ratios Total Debt Ratio= Total Assets-Total Owner’s Equity Total Liabilities & Owner’s Equity 2019: Total Debt Ratio=0.6914 2018: Total Debt Ratio=0.6297 2017: Total Debt Ratio=0.6398 Asset Management Receivables Turnover =___ _Sales______ Account Receivables 2019: Receivables Turnover= 74.9992 times 2018: Receivables Turnover = 91.4050 times 2017: Receivables Turnover = 104.3052 times Profitability Measures Profit Margin = NI / Sales 2019: Profit Margin = 0.04199 2018: Profit Margin = 0.04926 2017: Profit Margin = 0.02565 Market Value Measures PE ratio = PPS / EPS 2019: PE ratio March 2019 =123.23 PE ratio July 2019 = 141.57 PE ratio September 2019 = 150.83 PE ratio December 2019 = 96.08 2018: PE ratio March 2018 = 0.00 PE ratio July 2018 =2,206.00 PE ratio September 2018 = 0.00 PE ratio December 2018 = 85.70 2017: PE ratio March 2017 = 63.02 PE ratio July 2017 = 60.14 PE ratio September 2017 = 53.60 PE ratio December 2017 = 0.00 Analysis There are many factors to consider when looking at the overall financial analysis for Shake Shack Inc. For the fiscal year of 2019 Shake Shack’s revenue grew by 29.44% compared to 2018, to 594.52 million dollars. The higher-end fast food establishment has a 67.75 million EBITDA, and a net income of 19.83 million with a 3.06% return on capital. As we see later on in our current ratio, although Shake Shack’s is high, the company is able to pay off all its debts within a year. It is important to note that Shake Shack is going through a downwards trend and has a high inventory turnover rate. However, this is due to the use of fresh produce that are more perishable in this higher quality fast-food chain. With an overall positive financial analysis, and according to MSN stock details, analyst recommendations are to buy stocks as of 3/30/2020. Financial Comparison Similarly to Shake Shack, Noodles & Company is a fast-casual restaurant that serves International and American noodle dishes and pastas, instead of burgers and shakes. However, Noodles & Company is a publicly traded company which allowed us to easily compare ratios between the two. For the financial analysis, we decided to compare the following ratios; current ratio and the inventory turnover. We felt that these ratios gave an accurate representation and consequently used these ratios to determine which restaurant has a stronger presence for creditors, customers, and stakeholders. I. Current Ratio The current ratio tells us a company’s ability to pay short term obligations or obligations that are due within one year. This ratio shows future investors how a company can take advantage of the current assets on its balance sheet to satisfy its debts and payables. A current ratio above 1 suggests that a company’s short term debts are greater than its assets. While a current ratio above 1, tells us the company is capable of paying off its short term obligations. For a restaurant, short term obligations or debts may be food, staff wages, and beverages. Below is a table showing both Shake Shack’s and Noodles & Company current ratio for the past three years. As you can see from the table above, for the years 2018 and 2017 Shake Shake had a current ratio greater than one. Meaning it could pay all of its debts due within one year or less. However, for the year 2017 Shake Shack has a rather high current ratio of 2.74. This could also show that the company is not using its current assets efficiently. On the other hand, Noodles & Company struggled to have a current ratio above one for the past three years. This can be worrisome for some investors. However, Noodles & Company is generally on an upward trend where as you can see from the table. Shake Shack is in a downward trend, with the current ratio substantially getting lower and lower every year. Shake Shack’s current ratio is more volatile as well, jumping from 2.74 to 1.69 in a single year which could signify an increase in operational risk. While Noodles & Company although has a current ratio below one is more stable. II. Inventory Turnover The inventory turnover ratio tells us how many times a company has sold and replaced their inventory over a given period. Investors and analysts may use the inventory turnover ratio and compare it to industry averages in order to make a strategic decision. A low inventory turnover ratio can suggest that there are weak sales and possibly imply an excess in inventory. While a high ratio can imply that sales are strong or a high ratio can also suggest that there is insufficient inventory. It is also important to note that a low ratio is not necessarily a bad sign. A low ratio is good when prices are expected to rise or when a shortage is expected. For restaurants, this is immensely important since most restaurants depend on perishable goods. Below is a table highlighting the inventory turnover ratio for Shake Shack and Noodles & Company. From first glance, you can see that Shake Shack’s ratio for the past three years is tremendously higher than Noodles & Company. However, when we take the ratio and divide it by 365 we can determine how long they keep on hand per day. For 2019 we can determine Shake Shack held inventory for an average of 1.6 days (365/244.99 = 1.6) while Noodles & Company held inventory for an average of 9.3 days (365/39.28 = 9.3) We should also take into consideration the type of inventory each restaurant holds. Shake Shack offers burgers and shakes so ideally their inventory will be meat and fresh vegetables. On the other hand Noodles & Company offers pasta and speciality noodles, so their inventory will be pasta, sauce, and noodles. With that in mind, it makes sense as to why Shake Shack has such a high inventory turnover rate. They need fresh ingredients to make their product and any inventory they keep longer than one day will be bad. While Noodles & Company can afford to hold inventory longer since ingredients like pasta and sauce have a longer shelf life. Overall, from these comparisons we can infer that Shake Shack has a better standing and a more appealing look for investors. Shake Shack is a safer investing showing consistent results year after year. While Noodles & Company has the potential to be a good investment, they lack consistency and their profits fluctuate year to year. Tables Balance Sheet Income Statement Recommendations Shake Shack has easily cemented itself as one of the leaders in the fast casual dining experience. With its exponential growth over the years and its commitment to quality ingredients. It's clear why Shake Shack remains at the top. However, with increasing pressure from its competitors like Five Guys, Smash Burger and Noodles & Company, Shake Shack needs to implement new strategies that will further its growth and bring in new customers. Two strategies that Shake Shack can utilize are, focusing more on international sales and revising its menu. With 147 restaurants in the United States and 15 restaurants across twelve countries. Shake Shack has already solidified its international presence, with restaurants in countries like Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Shake Shack has made a name for itself outside the United States. However, Shake Shack tends to focus more on its domestic restaurants than its international restaurants. Causing its international locations to fall behind. Shake Shack already has plans to expand domestically and penetrate the markets it is already in, such as urban cities. However, they do not have plans to further its international footprint, Shake Shack can simply implement plans to redesign stores or open new locations in central tourist spots internationally. Opening locations in places like airports, hotels and famous landmarks can boost sales drastically leading to higher profits for the company.Additionally, focusing on its international restaurants does no harm to Shake Shack. For example, if things go poorly in their Turkey location, it likely wouldn’t impact domestic sales here in the US. Furthermore, it is clear that international markets is where Shake Shack should look towards in the future. When we compare domestic and international sales for the years 2019, 2018 and 2017 provided by the table below. We can see that domestic sales have been gradually decreasing since 2017 however, international sales have been gradually rising. Especially from 2018 to 2019, domestic sales saw close to a $300 decrease while international sales saw the opposite. *In millions* Shake Shack can also further its international footprint, by customizing the menus to fit each specific country. In the United States, every menu has the same options however, when expanding into international borders it’s important to note the customs of that respective country. For example, the milkshakes that Shake Shack offers are wildly popular here in the US. But we cannot expect them to be popular in places like Japan or China. In Japan, flavours like chocolate and vanilla are not as popular. Changing menu items internationally to meet customer needs leads us to our next strategy that Shake Shack can implement. Revamping the current menu in domestic locations to reflect healthier options. Across the United States, Shake Shack’s menu items have been consistently the same. In 2019, Shake Shack introduced “Chick’n Bites,” however, the new product did not resonate well with some markets. Furthermore, there were issues with the consistency of the supply chain in terms of finding a supplier. We suggest that Shake Shack enter the vegetarian market. Already Shake Shack offers a mushroom burger, however, it is not the most popular food item. Therefore Shake Shack should introduce a new veggie burger, maybe with beyond meat. Many of Shake Shack’s competitors have already turned to serving more healthier vegetarian options. Five guys offer a vegetarian sandwich along with another option with cheese. Smashburger offers a healthy alternative to a burger, by providing salads. Furthermore, recent studies have shown that more and more Americans are turning towards healthier options or meatless options. An important thing to note, is that the people purchasing these meatless burgers are not just vegetarians they also consist of meat lovers alike. A study done by the market research group NPD shows that 90% of people who purchased a plant-based burger, also ate meat. So providing a veggie burger on Shake Shacks menu may not hurt profits and actually give domestic sales the boost they need. It’s clear Shake Shack has become a common name and their burgers are well known. However, to combat decreasing sales and increasing competition. Shake Shack needs to institute many strategies that will help it stay on top. Firstly, Shake Shack needs to focus more on international growth. It is clear that international markets are untapped and if Shake Shack penetrates these markets it will secure itself as the top fast casual restaurant. Secondly, Shake Shack needs to propel itself into the vegetarian market by revising their menu. Majority of Shake Shack's competitors have already done this and if Shake Shack introduces a new veggie burger or salad option it brings in a new customer base that will be looking for healthier options. If Shake Shack can implement these strategies, we believe it can lead to new growth for the company. 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The Veggie Shack Is Here!” Shake Shack, 10 July 2019, www.shakeshack.com/2018/04/18/get-ready-to-veg-out-the-veggie-shack-is-here/. “Shake Shack Competitors.” Comparably, www.comparably.com/companies/shakeshack/competitors. “The History of Smashburger.” Mental Itch, mentalitch.com/the-history-of-smashburger/. Udland, Myles. “Shake Shack Calls Its Employees '51%Ers'.” Business Insider, Business Insider, 29 Dec. 2014, www.businessinsider.com/shake-shack-employees-51-percent-2014-12. Wohl, Jessica. “Shake Shack CMO Is Eager for the Chain's 'next-Generation Veggie Product'.” Ad Age, 14 Aug. 2019, adage.com/article/podcast-marketers-brief/shake-shack-cmoeager-chains-next-generation-veggie-product/2191516. “2019 Annual Report.” Shake Shack Inc., 2019, https://sec.report/Document/0001620533-20000006/shak-2019122510k.htm Yoder, Kate. “Turns out Meat-Eaters Are Craving ... Meatless Burgers?” Grist, Grist, 19 July 2019, grist.org/article/turns-out-meat-eaters-are-craving-meatless-burgers/. 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