# CYB 6040 Wilmington University W3 Risk and Lethality via Delta Method Presentation

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Engineering

CYB 6040

Wilmington University

CYB

# Week 3 Resources

[B] Textbook: Read/ choose one chapter from Chapter 9-12 from Open Source Intelligence; pick one social network to research

Download, open in PPTX, and understand the RN Risk evaluation processes in One Attack /Defense Scenario - Armageddon.

Concentrate on slides 68-253. Be aware that there were two cases: one with a planned Nuclear strike on 3 Israel Cities with warning. It yielded a &% net Risk for the case. A second case was with a preemptive Nuclear strike against Israel without any warning, raising the Net Case Risk to 17%. This RA BTW Armageddon is one of the few scenarios with a legitimatize High Risk Threat at 75% + compared to normal Cyber which are 5% to 21% Threat Level.

Why? We killing human beings vs computers.

1) Armageddon A/D Scenario at: Link

Uses the approach that both Attack (Issue 1) and Defense (Issue 2) Risks are calculated / estimated. / The NET difference of Risks is what we look for because all the errors of estimation cancel out. The Net is also what we apply a \$ figure to mitigate the residual risks.

In current \$ for a Nuclear scenario it would be estimated at 100 Billion / risk point.

I have put together a Kaltura to expand on Week 3 Team Assignment:

Using Armageddon , Review / Study ( Use my Kaltura to help explain the process) the Issues, Risk Calculations and Net Risk Results for Issues 1 & 2 (Issue 1 = Attack side & Issue 2 = Defense Side). These are two separate calculations. Prepare a 20-25 slide PER ISSUE (40 -50 Slides total- minimum) Agreement or Challenge to the Risk calculations made by the PIF Teams. Support your positions using the Facts of the A/D scenario and your Experience plus the Delta Collaboration Method.

*Use the Delta Method. The Delta method is a collaboration process to combine and AVERAGE wisdom of several "experts." Each Team member gets a say and estimates their level risk for the indicated attacks and / or defenses. The Team them builds a matrix of answers (estimates)

THIS IS A TEAM FUNCTION. ONLY ONE (1) SET OF SLIDES NEEDS TO BE SUBMITTED BY THE TEAM LEADER. ALL STUDENTS ON THE TEAM GET THE SAME GRADE.

40 slides minimum BUT up to 50+ would be be better to fully show understanding.

Teams may use a good portion of the Armageddon slides in their analysis and presentation as long as they give professional credit to the authors.

The Team Conclusions slide needs for points:

1. Calculation of the Initial Risk Assessment (IRA) in Risk %

use the full RN equation:

Risk = [Threats x Vulnerabilities x Impact] / Countermeasures (NORMAL CASE or Historical Case)

2. Calculate the Risk after the Boost to the Threat agents:

use the Reduced form of RN with Vulnerabilities & Impact dropped out as constants at state 0 with Countermeasures held Constant, so:

Risk ~ f( Threats / Countermeasures)

Issue 1 Risk = Risk at Boosted Threat - IRA = Net positive Threat Boost (WORST CASE)

3.

Risk ~ f( Threats / Countermeasures)

Calculate the Risk after the Boost to the Countermeasures agents:

use the Reduced form of RN with Vulnerabilities & Impact dropped out as constants at state 0 with Threats held Constant, so:

Issue 2 Risk = ABS [IRA -Risk at Boosted Countermeasures ]= Net positive Countermeasures Boost (BEST CASE)

Issue 2 Risk % is always less that the Threat Boost ( Issue 1) because the Attacker ( Threat agent) always has all the advantages and the Defense (countermeasure agent) must cover much more of threat space.

Risk percentages can never be Negative.

4. Calculate the NET Case Risk = The Net Positive Risk Issue 1 - Net Positive Risk Issue 2 Each Risk % point is valued at \$2MM

The Lethality Matrix is used to identify Qualitative Risk Range. See Link

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Department Of Homeland Security
Office Of Infrastructure Protection
Chemical Sector

RISK PROBABILITY CHART.

THREAT
• Threat: Flooding.
• Most chemical plants are located near the coastal cities of United States.
• Coastal cities are mostly hit by flood in the US.

• Estimated level of threat: 25% Low-Medium.

Vulnerability: Destruction of Chemic...

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