Harvard University Strategic Natural Risk Assessment Paper

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Humanities

Harvard University

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Review the Strategic National Risk Assessment. Compare and contrast the deductions about the national-level threats and hazards as listed by the DHS in the SNRA against the findings you made in Week 5's analysis of the WTAs. As always, assume what is listed first is the greatest risk [also called "most dangerous"] and probability [also called "most likely"] and the last is least. Given the "Natural" events that have occurred across America since 2006 [i.e. post-Katrina], are the ranking of riskiest/most dangerous events in the "Natural" threats and hazards in the table on p2 logical? Why or why not?

Readings:

The Strategic National Risk Assessment in Support of PPD-8:https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-strategic-...

Instructions: Fully utilize the materials that have been provided to you in order to support your response. Please respond to at least two other students and provide substantive comments that contribute something new and important to the discussion. You may challenge, support or supplement another student’s answer using the terms, concepts and theories from the required readings. Also, do not be afraid to respectfully disagree where you feel appropriate; as this should be part of your analysis process at this academic level.

200-250 words for discussion post and 100-150 words for student responses


Student responses:

Student# 1 Jeffrey

Review the Strategic National Risk Assessment. Compare and contrast the deductions about the national-level threats and hazards as listed by the DHS in the SNRA against the findings you made in Week 5's analysis of the WTAs. As always, assume what is listed first is the greatest risk [also called "most dangerous"] and probability [also called "most likely"] and the last is least. Given the "Natural" events that have occurred across America since 2006 [i.e. post-Katrina], are the ranking of riskiest/most dangerous events in the "Natural" threats and hazards in the table on p2 logical? Why or why not?

Hello Classmates,

I found the ranking of the threats to the United States within the Strategic National Risk Assessment very interesting. First I will start by reviewing the natural threat/hazard group. I remember taking CBRN threat class through AMU and discussing an outbreak of hand foot and mouth disease. With that being said, there was an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Great Britain. The increase in international trade has greatly increased the plausibility of an outbreak within the United States and across the world (Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., & Anderson, R. M. (2001). This endemic seriously damaged Great Britain’s agricultural supply. However, in a post Hurricane Katrina United States one would definitely think that natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, and even wild fires would be rank higher in probability and danger. It is interesting however that the 2018 DNI Worldwide Threat Assessment from last week did not mention animal disease outbreak as a threat/hazard. I do not believe that threat animal disease outbreak should be ranked above natural disasters but as we have seen in Great Britain it should at least be in the conversation of threats to the United States.

In the technological/accidental threat and hazard group I was very surprised that cyber threats were not mentioned like they were in the 2018 DNI Worldwide Threat Assessment. Cyber-attacks especially on the sectors of national critical infrastructure can be potentially very disruptive. With that being said, biological food contamination is definitely a threat. Large portions of the United States food supply is unsecure. Even a small scale attack such as the salmonella contamination in Oregon could be potentially dangerous to the population. Chemical and Biological contaminations are also major concerns within the United States national critical infrastructure.

Within the adversarial/human-caused group of threats and hazards armed assaults are definitely one of the top concerns within America. Terrorist attacks such as mass shootings are generally cheap to conduct and easier to carry out than bombings, aircraft, or CBRN attacks. Also cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are mentioned within this section. In addition, although a radiological attack is very unlikely, it is possible and could potentially cause gret economic harm to the United States. This can be observed through the attack on Alexander Litvinenko in London. He was poisoned with polonium-210 and this attack caused many concerns within England.

References

Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., & Anderson, R. M. (2001). The foot-and-mouth epidemic in great britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions.Science, 292(5519), 1155-60. Retrieved from https://search-proquest-com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/docv...

-Jeffrey


Student #2 Derek

Hello Class,

The Strategic National Risk Assessment report (SNRA) is an assessment of threats that to the United States national security. Some of the threats listed in the SNRA are pandemics, terrorism, cyber-attacks, natural and man-made disasters (DHS, 2011, p. 1). SNRA has developed a list of national- level events which are grouped into three categories: 1) natural hazards; 2) technological/accidental hazards; and 3) adversarial, human-caused threats/hazards (DHS, 2011, p. 2). In Table 1 of the SNRA National Level Events they have the following Threat/Hazard type: Animal Disease Outbreak, Earthquake, Flood, Human Pandemic Outbreak, Hurricane, Space Weather, Tsunami, Volcanic Eruption, and Wildfire (DHS, 2011, p. 2). The SNRA has the following Threat/Hazard types under Technological/ Accidental: Biological Food Contamination, Chemical Substance Spill or Release, Dam Failure, and Radiological Substance Release (DHS, 2011, p. 3). The next section is Adversarial/Human-Caused which consists of the following: Aircraft as a Weapon, Armed Assault, Biological Terrorism Attack (non-food), Chemical/Biological Food Contamination Terrorism Attack, Chemical Terrorism Attack (non-food), Cyber Attack against Data, Cyber Attack against Physical Infrastructure, Explosives Terrorism Attack, Nuclear Terrorism Attack, and Radiological Terrorism Attack (DHS, 2011, p. 3).

The threats identified in the 2018 Director of National Intelligence are Global Threats, Cyber Threats, down to Regional Threats (DNI, 2018, p. 1). The 2018 DNI primarily reports threats that are present outside the United States along with countries that pose a threat to the United States National Security (DNI, 2018, p. 1). The DNI focuses the identification of security threats in the Regional Threats tab along with Global Threats and Cyber Threats from specific foreign countries (DNI, 2018, p. 1). The SNRA reports threats that originate inside the United States therefore causing a difference between foreign and domestic. There is one exception which is the cyber attacks which in today’s society can be launched from anywhere in the world. After further research I would say that the SNRA is extremely accurate in their threats/hazards from 2006. I have seen these threats happen especially with the Human Pandemic Outbreak which the Corona Virus is a perfect example. The Volcanic Eruption happened while I was stationed in Hawaii and caused millions in damage on the Big Island. The wildfires in California raged rapidly through the Northern California town of Santa Rosa causing millions in damage. Each of these events have happened and this list is extremely accurate. If the order of riskiest to most probable are from top to bottom then I would definitely reorganize this and put the pandemic at the top and Animal Disease Outbreak at the bottom along with Space Weather (DHS, 2011, p. 2).

References

Department of Homeland Security. (2011, December). The Strategic National Risk Assessment in Support of PPD 8: A Comprehensive Risk-Based Approach toward a Secure and Resilient Nation. Retrieved August 10, 2020, from https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-strategic-...

Director of National Intelligence. (2018, February 13). WorldWide Threat Assessment of The US Intelligence Community. Retrieved August 10, 2020, from https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testi...

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Explanation & Answer

Attached.

Running Head: STRATEGIC NATURAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Strategic natural risk assessment
Name
Course
Date

1

STRATEGIC NATURAL RISK ASSESSMENT

2

Strategic national risk assessment
After going through the report, it is worth noting that the occurrence of these events
affects more due to lack of preparedness. After the occurrence of Hurricane Katrina, one would
expect that the nation would be well prepared to combat most of the presented threats which are
not the case. Technological related threats have increased due to the increased use and
improvement of technology. Additionally, industrialization specifically in the field sector and
other areas that directly affect humanity has resulted in biological food contamination which is
not well addressed. One may argue against the report by stating that the animal disease outbreak
should not have been considered as the top priority risk. As compared to the natural cause risks
that tend to have a great impact not only to the environment but also to humanity and thus quite
impactful. Although it is essential to argue that the table presented is logically arranged some
improvements may be required to be made and therefore the adjustments in the ranking of the
threats. The human pandemic outbreak, although ranked as critical and severe, would be adjusted
to as the riskiest threat among other risks presented. This adjustment in the ranking is because
when a human pandemic occurs, specialists have minimum skills and knowledge to manage it
(DNI, 2018).
Responses
Student 1
You make a great statement in your observation about the outbreak of the foot-and-mouth
disease in Britain that led to a similar outbreak in the United States and across the world.
According to the statement you have provided in your post the pandemic resulted in massive
distractio...


Anonymous
This is great! Exactly what I wanted.

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