Description
The following must be submitted by the end of the Residency day (7:30pm ET) on Saturday. No credit is available for submissions not made by this time. The system will not accept submissions made after this time. This is not a group assignment, so no collaboration or discussion is allowed; it must be worked on individually. Submit your responses to all three questions in a single document. There should be a single title page for the document. However, each question should have its own separate references page (a source may be reused for multiple questions). The total length of the document should be between 13 and 16 pages. Do not include the wording of the questions in your paper.
Question 1:
In 750-1000 words, identify and explain the five steps of forecasting, and then come up with an original example taken from your own professional experiences to illustrate these steps. Your response must be original. You must incorporate at least three reliable sources, both as references and corresponding in-text citations. APA format is expected.
Question 2:
In 750-1000 words, explain qualitative and quantitative forecasting, and then come up with an original example of each taken from your own professional experiences to illustrate these two forecasting types. Your response must be original. You must incorporate at least three reliable sources, both as references and corresponding in-text citations. APA format is expected.
Question 3:
In 750-1000 words, identify and explain the types of data patterns, and then come up with an original example of each (strive to make it based on your own professional experiences) to illustrate each data pattern type. Your response must be original. You must incorporate at least three reliable sources, both as references and corresponding in-text citations. APA format is expected.
Explanation & Answer
Attached.
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Question 1
Forecasting is a significant concept in business, as it encompasses a lot of benefits.
Forecasting can be defined as a process which involves estimating pertinent events of the future,
according to assessment of the present and past behavior. It is impossible to probe the future
without knowledge of past events and the current behavior. Analysis of past and present events
provides a helpful foundation for the collection of information concerning future events
(Caruana, 2001). Therefore, forecasting can be described as the process involving assessment of
the future, usually using projections and calculations which take into account anticipated
changes, past performance, and current trends in the foreseeable period in hand. Whenever
managers plan organizational set-up and business operations for the coming years, they need to
consider the prevailing, past and present social, economic, and political conditions. Ideally,
forecasting offers a logical foundation for assessing the nature of imminent business operations
in advance and the foundation of a managerial decision concerning personnel, material as well as
other aspects. Thus, when a business makes an effort to envision the future in a concentrated and
systematic way, the business enterprise may realize numerous aspects in its operations which
require special attention. Nonetheless, businesses need to recognize that the forecasting process
entails the concept of guesswork; hence, managers should not stay relaxed and satisfied after
preparing a forecast.
Step 1: Problem definition.
Problem definition is the first step in forecasting, and it is also the most challenging.
Careful definition of the problem necessitates knowledge of the way of using the forecasts, who
needs the forecasts as well as how the forecast will fit in the business which needs it. Therefore,
a forecaster should spend enough time talking to all individuals involved in data collection,
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maintaining databases, and utilizing the forecasts in planning for the future (Finarelli Jr, &
Johnson, 2004). Nevertheless, the first step of problem definition is a bit challenging since it
cannot find any real tools to help. For example, a company seeking to expand globally requires
this first step of forecasting. The company should undertake an analysis into the nature of the
new market in order to identify any issues which would arise in the future.
Step 2: Gathering information.
The second step of forecasting is the collection of data. There are two types of
information which are necessary for forecasting, namely, accumulated professionalism of the
individuals who collect the information and utilize the forecasts and statistical data. In most
cases, it is challenging to obtain sufficient historical information in order to fit a proper statistical
model. Therefore, judgmental methods of forecasting can be used to obtain enough data for
forecasting. Occasionally, there are structural transformations in the system requiring
forecasting, which make old data less useful. In this case, the recent data are more useful in
forecasting. However, a good statistical framework goes through these challenges to tackle
evolutionary transformations in the system (Hyndman, & Athanasopoulos, 2018). As such, these
statistical models avert the need to get rid of good data unnecessarily. One good example
involves the sale of a product with the intention of replenishing stocks. There is a need for a
proper tool of forecasting in order to sell this specific product to replenish stocks. The company
would require sufficient information on the market to avoid making losses through the sale of the
critical product. Basing on data collection through systematic assessment into the industry and
economic situation, the manager needs to have quantitative approximations of the future scope of
business operations.
Step 3: Preliminary analysis.
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During forecasting, it is always important to start through graphing the data. Graphing the
data would require the forecaster to take into account critical...
