POST 4: Superstitious Belief v Available until Monday, September 28, 2020 11:30 PM CDT ☆ Subscribe Consider the following argument: If a pregnant woman is frightened by a bat, then her baby will be "marked.” Mary is pregnant and she was frightened by a bat on Tuesday. Therefore her baby will be "marked." Suggestion for writing your comment: maintain that the conclusion of this argument should be rejected by using some notions learned in this course. For example, the notions of empirical belief, evidence, reasonableness and conservatism (Chapter 3); or the standards of validity, soundness, and cogency for evaluating arguments (Chapter 5). Criteria EXCELLENT 2 points GOOD 1 point DEFICIENT O points Criterion Score 12 1. The post (a) introduces a new example of superstitious belief (it is not enough to comment about the instructor's example) and (b) explains what's wrong with this or the instructor's example of superstitious belief The post fully satisfies these conditions The post satisfies these conditions only in part The post satisfies none of these conditions / 2 2. The post (a) has a conclusion clearly marked by a conclusion indicator and (b) has the indicator marked by italics, boldface, underline, a combination of these or a parenthesis reading '(conclusion indicator)'. The post fully satisfies these conditions The post satisfies these conditions only in part The post satisfies none of these conditions 12 3.a The post has a "Replies" subtitle at the end referring to the posts to which you have replied. 3.b The post either shows the text of the replies or has a thread showing them. The post fully satisfies these conditions The post satisfies these conditions only in part The post satisfies none of these conditions /2 4. The post is (a) clearly written in academic English and (b) properly edited with no typos or other linguistic problems. The post fully satisfies these conditions The post partially satisfies these conditions The post satisfies none of these conditions /2 5. The post follows all instructions concerning the Posts' format, style and authenticity. For example, it has between 200 and 600 words and is your own work, with any source acknowledged. The post fully satisfies these conditions The post satisfies these conditions only in part The post satisfies none of these conditions Rejected posts cannot be done again. Instructor's Sample People may sometimes reason in a way that relies on a superstitious general premise such as that all pregnant women who get frightened by a bat will have a "marked" baby. From the point of the logical relations, if one accepts this general premise and also the premise that, say, Mary is pregnant and she was frightened by a bat on Tuesday, from that it follows deductive that her baby will be “marked.” That is, the argument is valid. Yet it is a preposterous argument. What has gone wrong? The argument is unsound and therefore fails to provide a reason to accept its conclusion, which certainly should be rejected. If an argument is based on a false premise, that's sufficient for making it unsound. So the problem with the argument under discussion is the general premise: the prediction that a baby will be "marked" under the described circumstances. This amounts to an empirical belief. As such, it should be based on solid evidence from observation. But the argument relies on a prediction that counts with no such support. As a result, it fails to be sound. Its conclusion expresses nothing more than a superstitious belief, based on a superstitious general belief. Similar superstitious general beliefs include: Braking a mirror will bring 7 years of bad luck to the mirror breaker. Black cats are also sign of bad luck. • Carrying a certain object to an exam will help me to do well. There is no empirical evidence for the truth of any of these beliefs. Furthermore, each of them challenges ordinary and scientific beliefs that count with overwhelming empirical evidence. Thus these beliefs lack the virtue of conservatism, which can be given up only when presented with sufficient evidence against our well established empirical beliefs. In consequence, the critical thinker should reject conclusions based on superstitious beliefs. You will receive 10 points if, 1. The post (a) introduces a new example of superstitious belief (it is not enough to comment about the instructor's example) and (b) explains what's wrong with this or the instructor's example of superstitious belief [2 points] 2. The post (a) has a conclusion clearly marked by a conclusion indicator and (b) has the indicator marked by italics, boldface, underline, a combination of these or a parenthesis reading "(conclusion indicator)'. [2 points) 3. The post (a) has a "Replies" subtitle at the end referring to the posts to which you have replied; and (b) either shows the text of the replies or has a thread showing them. [2 points) 4. The post is (a) clearly written in academic English and (b) properly edited with no typos or other linguistic problems. [2 points] 5. The post follows all instructions concerning the Posts' format, as well as style and authenticity. For example, it has between 200 and 600 words and is your own work, with any source acknowledged. [2 points) Posting failing conditions 4 or 5 will be rejected. Violations of conditions 1, 2 or 4 will result in a reduction of 2 credits for each. For more on grading policies for this work, go to Rubric and also read the files for Posts in GUIDES TO WRITING, "Content" under the MATERIALS tab. Condition 3 is waived for the first student to post but the student should comment on the instructor's sample in the directions for this post. The second student to write the post can refer to the the first student's and the instructor's post.
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