Psychological Reports, 2011, 109, 2, 353-366. © Psychological Reports 2011
Secular IQ Increases by Epigenesis? The Hypothesis
of Cognitive Genotype Optimization1, 2
Manfred F. Greiffenstein
Psychological Systems, Inc.
Summary.—The short timescale of massive secular IQ gains (“Flynn Effect”)
is inconsistent with positive selection of a recent gene mutation, but other genetic
mechanisms are possible. Principles of evolutionary psychology, combined with
secular trends, suggest an epigenetic explanation: the Cognitive Genome Optimization Hypothesis. Per life-history theory, favorable secular trends may change
the phenotypic expression of the genotype which controls the neurophysiology of
problem solving. The hypothesis posits two intermediate steps between reliable
nutrition (the starting point) and higher IQs (ending point): (1) Earlier cognitive
maturation and (2) further calibration of cognitive function by reliable social resources (cultural complexity, mandatory education). Unlike earlier generations,
more resources can be deployed to cognitive maturation than to physical survival,
and more time is available to calibrate cognitive processing into the upper end of
the trait value range for intelligence. The secular trend of earlier puberty timing is
critical: data show an association between puberty and higher IQ.
A large secular increase in measured intelligence scores (hereinafter
IQ) since the 1930s is a generally accepted phenomena (Neisser, 1998). Persons who take old IQ tests today score much higher than persons of the
same age when that IQ test was first published. The starting point for rising IQs remains unknown, but there is some evidence for a massive increase beginning as early as 1917 (Tuddenham, 1948). The eponym “Flynn
Effect” was applied to the phenomenon because of political scientist James
Flynn’s prolific writing on the topic, but published data predate Flynn’s
first paper (see Tuddenham, 1948; Lynn, 1977, 1982).
The trend line across studies involves IQ scores rising at a rate of 0.3
points per year. This works out to 3 IQ points per decade, if the baseline
is set in the 1930s. The parameters of the rise include: the observation of
increases in many different industrialized countries; greatest rise in measures of “fluid intelligence” (hereinafter g); and more recent leveling off
(or pause) in IQ gains (Sundet, Barlaug, & Torjussen, 2004). The best evidence comes from national military records, because these samples are
especially representative of the population in countries with conscription
Address correspondence to Manfred F. Greiffenstein, Ph.D., 32121 Woodward Avenue, Suite
201, Royal Oak, MI or e-mail (mfgreiff@comcast.net).
The author thanks Professor Stephen Hinshaw (Berkley) and Ida Sue Baron (private practice) for providing helpful literature, and Professor James Flynn, who waived anonymity as
a peer reviewer, for critical comments. (Their assistance does not imply complete agreement
with conclusions!)
1
2
DOI 10.2466/03.04.10.19.PR0.109.5.353-366
ISSN 0033-2941
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(Flynn, 1987a, 1987b). Similar increases were reported for other complex
cognitive tasks, such as Piaget’s “combinatory thought” (Flieller, 1999)
and “top-level” operational thinking (Shayer & Ginsburg, 2009). Oddly, some report a secular decline on simpler Piagetian conservation tasks
from the mid-1960s to early 2000s (Shayer, Ginsburg, & Coe, 2007), of unknown significance.
To date, however, there is no widely accepted explanation of intergenerational IQ trends. There is not even agreement that the increase represents actual changes in underlying g, versus ordinary facultative changes
(learning and rote memorization) or methodological artifact (e.g., differences in recruitment bias between standardization cohorts). Single-process explanations of rising IQ include improved nutrition (Lynn, 1998;
Martorell, 1998; Sigman & Whaley, 1998), learning to solve abstract problems without increased g (Flynn, 2007), compulsory education (Schaie,
Willis, & Pennak, 2005), increasing cultural complexity (Greenfield, 1998),
and heterosis (“hybrid vigor”; Mingroni, 2007). But the intermediate steps
between the proposed single causes and rising IQs have not been specified in any concrete way.
If nutrition is a prime mover, a position the author favors, what is the
path taken to higher intelligence? What steps mediate between the broad
influences of better nutrition at the start and rising IQs at the end? The author proposes an epigenetic mechanism: improvements in secular nutrition initiated a cascade of events which accelerated cognitive maturation,
and modern social resources (cultural complexity, mandatory education)
further calibrated higher cognitive function to its genomic optimum. The
result is higher measured IQs.
Background: Evolutionary Perspectives
The sources of secular IQ increase can be understood from an evolutionary perspective. Positive selection for a cognition-enhancing gene mutation could not possibly explain IQ increases on the short time scale of
three or four generations. That is because it would take hundreds of generations for a cognitive mutation to spread in a population widely enough
to strongly influence the standardization group for a test. But there are
other genetic mechanisms to consider. Several evolutionary premises,
middle theories, and concepts are available to formulate genetic explanations other than positive selection.
One major premise is that the genotype carries within it a much
broader range of potential phenotypes than are obviously expressed in
the population. A minor premise is that part of our genotype codes for
the neurophysiology of problem solving. Therefore, the cognitive phenotype (like our physical phenotype) does not necessarily match the genotype. The genotype provides plasticity, meaning a range of trait values are
Secular IQ Gains By Epigenesis
355
possible, particularly with regard to intelligence. It is not seriously disputed that environmental factors facilitate or inhibit trait expression. In
areas where food is chronically scarce, it is difficult to tell which humans
have tallness genes, but chronic food abundance creates wide variance in
height. In areas where literacy is low, it is difficult to say who has the myopia (near sightedness) gene, but in areas with chronically high literacy, it
is easy to find myopia (Storfer, 1999). The prediction follows that reliable
nutrition and social resources should be facilitating factors for higher intelligence. Further, earlier cognitive maturation implies lengthier opportunity to fine-tune higher cognitive skills, during mandatory education
for example.
Epigenesis
A recognized mode of inheritance is epigenesis. Epigenetic inheritance means trait transmission without changes in the DNA sequence
(genome), and it operates over much shorter timescales than positive selection. Epigenetic causation often involves nutrition and the prenatal environment. Nutrition is the major intrauterine environmental factor that
alters the expression, not the sequence, of the fetal genome. Examples include inheritance of efficient calorie use by offspring of starving mothers after the “Dutch Hunger Winter” of WWII (see McClellan, Susser, &
King, 2006). Epigenetic effects are not just manifested at birth; they can
change the timing of developmental programs when taking a life-history approach to ontogeny (Ellis, 2004). Secular improvements in fetal and
infant nutrition should result in developmental adaptations that permanently change the timing of cognitive development and puberty.
This paper requires accepting that intergenerational improvement in
nutrition is the major factor triggering rise in IQs (Lynn, 1990). The complete role of nutrition in the evolution of intelligence is beyond the scope
of this paper, and the reader is referred to Kaplan, Hill, Lancaster, and
Hurtado (2000) for an exposition on the topic.
Life-history Theory
A key conceptual framework is life-history theory (Charnov, 1993).
This is the view that humans evolved capacities to adjust the timing of
developmental steps to match changing circumstances, during ontogeny.
Human bodies “know” when optimizing or delaying developmental steps
is the best strategy for ensuring fitness; resources are allocated accordingly. Sexual maturation is delayed when resources are reliably scarce, and
advanced when resources are reliably rich (Worthman, 1999; Ellis, 2004). It
will be argued here that cognitive maturation is advanced, particularly in
Western cultures, with the chronic abundance of nutritional and complex
social resources. Essentially, chronically favorable environmental conditions affect the epigenetic expression of IQ-related genes and play an im-
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portant role in facilitating rising intelligence. Advanced pubertal timing,
and its implications for cognitive development, is another outcome associated with this process, and this will be discussed in depth.
The Hypothesis
The author proposes the Cognitive Genome Optimization Hypothesis, an epigenetic framework in which genes relevant to the physiology
of problem solving became more fully expressed and optimized, because
of secular facilitating factors. IQ is not a fixed property in genomic terms.
The hypothesis states that the intermediate steps between improved
nutrition and rising IQs rest on two crucial fulcrums, accelerated cognitive maturation, and next, complex social resources further calibrate higher cognitive function to an optimum. Humans are a neotinic species: a
distinguishing feature of Homo sapiens is prolonged juvenile dependence
on parental and social caregivers (Kaplan, et al., 2000). Social resources
now available during juvenile dependence include longer mandatory education and greater cultural complexity, compared to earlier generations.
Complex social resources are the human equivalent of the biological term
“habitat complexity.” This interactive process results in the observed intergenerational increase in IQ scores.
The main body of evidence for the hypothesis will rest on puberty,
particularly female puberty, for reasons stated later. In terms of evolutionary psychology, this is a life-history “energetics theory” (Ellis, 2004),
meaning resources (typically calories) are steadily shifted to brain reorganization and sexual maturation at a younger age when a chronically favorable environment prevails. The proposed sequence of events is as follows: better nutrition à earlier brain reorganization (over-production and
pruning of grey matter) à early mental preparedness for complexity à
longer exposure to complex habitat (e.g., more education, cultural complexity) à calibration of cognitive function to an optimum à rising IQs.
Evaluating the Hypothesis: Fundamental Facts
Brain re-organization and ontogeny.—There is a fairly well-developed
body of knowledge regarding the neurobiological basis of cognitive maturation. Cognitive development depends on two well-established periods
of brain reorganization which are followed by increased computing power and learning capacity. Early childhood (2–3 years) and puberty (10–15
years) are developmental stages associated with brain growth spurts, characterized by a two-step process: overproduction of brain grey-matter and
synaptic connections, followed by pruning of synapses (Feinberg, 1982;
Chechik, Meilijson, & Ruppin, 1998). The clearest concrete evidence for
massive brain reorganization comes from studies of neurological change
during early puberty. Puberty is associated with a cascade of neuroendo-
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357
crine events, the myriad details of which are not of concern here and are
described elsewhere (Cameron, 2004).
The longitudinally obtained brain MRIs of preadolescents show rapid increases in cortical depth, termed grey-matter “over-production,” just
prior to puberty (Giedd, Blumenthal, Jeffries, Castellanos, Liu, Zijdenbos,
et al., 1999; Lenroot & Giedd, 2006). In girls, the cortex reaches maximal
thickness in the parietal lobe at age 10.1 yr., frontal lobe at 11 yr., and temporal lobes at 16.7 yr. (Giedd, 2004). In boys, the respective peak thicknesses are at 12.1, 11.8, and 16.2 years. This is followed by steady grey-matter
loss and synaptic pruning. Synaptic elimination is theorized to improve
the efficiency of complex mental computing (Feinberg, 1982; Hinshaw,
2009).
Advanced pubertal timing.—Cognitive maturation is not synonymous
with brain maturation, but depends upon it. If improved nutrition advances the timing of grey-matter production and pruning during development, particularly during puberty, it follows that prospects for earlier
cognitive maturation are accelerated to begin at younger ages than during
previous generations, leading to improved problem solving and learning,
if accompanied by facilitating social resources (e.g., complex technosocial
society). In terms of epigenesis, the cognitive genome is optimized by increasing overlap between a state of mental preparedness and time spent in
education. In earlier generations, there was less overlap of education with
the postpubertal critical learning period, which likely attenuated the value
range of intellectual traits for those cohorts.
Secular trends parallel to the Flynn Effect provide potential clues; the
most critical to this hypothesis being the steady advance of pubertal timing. Age at pubertal onset has advanced steadily over 150 years, a clear
trend for girls (Euling, Herman-Giddens, Lee, Selevan, Juul, Sorensen, et
al., 2008) and less clear for boys. Age at menarche decreased to an average of 3 yr. younger than a century ago, a rate of 3 to 4 months per decade
(Parent, Teilmann, Juul, Skakkebaek, Toppari, & Bourguignon, 2003) with
recent leveling (or pause) at a median of 13 yr. (Cole, 2000). The trend is
less clear with spemarche because it is less salient and memorable than
menarche, but there is some evidence to support advanced timing in boys
(Euling, et al., 2008). Average height has also undisputedly increased over
two centuries at a rate of 10 to 30 mm/decade (Cole, 2000), with more recent leveling off in a Norwegian military sample, per Sundet, et al. (2004).
The author makes no claims about height and IQ. Pubertal timing is the
more critical individual differences variable (Ellis, 2004) for the present
hypothesis. For example, maternal tempo plays a role, i.e., maternal onset of menarche is correlated with the daughter’s onset (Moisan, Meyer, &
Gingras, 1990), a good example of epigenetic transmission. These secular
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trends are probably not independent of each other, i.e., improved nutrition increasing height and strength.
Cultural (“habitat”) complexity as calibrator.—The hypothesis of interest
assumes that two crucial complex habitats co-exist: a chronically favorable
environment with respect to nutrition and chronically favorable social resources (a technosocial complex environment). These two supportive environments are necessary for calibration of the traits within the inherited
trait range. An optimizing environment is one that fine-tunes traits to their
fullest expression, up to a biological limit (Smith, 1978; Duchaine, Cosmides, & Tooby, 2001). Behavior geneticists have shown that optimization
of cognitive traits is demonstrable even during ontogeny. A powerful example is the finding that IQ heritability fractions3 increase with age, meaning persons drift toward the environments that best support their cognitive genotype (McGue, Bouchard, Iacono, & Lykken, 1993). Social policy
changes include steady increases in compulsory education; it is beyond
dispute that persons have spent successively more years in school since
the early 1900s (Snow, 1982). There is also little dispute that IQ is correlated, albeit imperfectly, with cultural complexity (Lynn & Vanhanen, 2002).
Genes related to cognition require an environment to support their
expression during ontogeny. The genes for nearsightedness would be expressed weakly, if at all, in the absence of reading materials. But secular
increases in literacy are nicely matched with increases in nearsightedness
(Feldkamper & Schaeffel, 2003; Dirani, Shekar, & Baird, 2008; van de Berg,
Dirani, Chen, Haslam, & Baird, 2008). So, a low-stimulating environment
should not support fuller expression of IQ, but a complex technosocial environment likely would.
It is proposed here that modern cultural complexity likely calibrated advanced cognitive maturation to an optimum. The author appeals to
a parallel concept from neurobiology: habitat complexity. High variance
environments optimize brain maturation, a common finding in evolutionary neurobiology. There is a large body of literature on habitat complexity and brain development in many animals, a topic beyond the scope
of the present paper. Briefly, the study by Pollen, Dobberfuhl, Scace, Igulu, Renn, Shumway, et al. (2007) is representative of this literature. Pollen
and colleagues found the largest brain sizes in those species of cichlid fish
occupying the most complex habitats, defined in terms of physical (e.g.,
variance of rock size) and social diversity (e.g., number of other species).
In humans, environmental complexity and cognition has been explored
by Schooler (1998). Schooler’s empirical work showed how complexity of
The heritability fraction is the percent of a phenotypic variable (e.g., IQ or height) attributed
to genetic variation. Falconer’s formula is h2 = 2[r(MZ) – r(DZ)], where r(MZ) is the correlation in a trait between monozygotic twins and r(DZ) the correlation in fraternal twins. The
contribution of shared environment is c2 = DZ − 1/2 * h2.
3
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work duties optimized cognitive flexibility, and how simpler work attenuated it (Kohn & Schooler, 1978; Caplan & Schooler, 2006).
Evaluating the Hypothesis: Empirical Data
The present hypothesis, with its emphasis on accelerated cognitive
maturation with each generation, is supported by many types of evidence.
Rising IQs among preschoolers.—First, the hypothesis of accelerated
cognitive maturation requires evidence that rises in IQ should show two
intercohort growth spurts associated with both critical periods of brain
reorganization, when successive cohorts are compared. The first period
ends at 2 or 3 years of age, so there should be evidence for rising computing power among preschoolers and lower gains for primary school students (prepuberty). Terman and Merrill (1973) calculated Stanford-Binet
performance of a modern age-stratified cohort against 1937 norms, and
found 2- to 5-year-olds had average IQs of 110. The 1937 referenced IQs
declined steadily to a mean IQ of 101 between ages 5 to 10 years. The age
differences between the young children in the 1972 sample are too small
for a birth cohort explanation, but accelerated cognitive development in
the two cohorts separated by 35 years is a better-fitting explanation.
The Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (Wechsler, 1949) and
WISC–Revised (Wechsler, 1974) comparison of scores is more difficult to
make because the number of items changed for most subtests between
1949 and 1974. The Digit Span subtest, although a weaker measure of g, remained unchanged in item-number or content. The mean “test age” (formerly termed “mental age”) for Digit Span differed little for children of
primary school age: for the 1974 cohort, the increase in working memory
span was 83% between 6 and 10 years, versus 80% for the 1949 cohort. But
from 10 to 15 years of age, a range associated with puberty, the 1974 cohort
increased from a raw score of 11 to 15, a gain in working memory span of
36%, while the same-age 1949 cohort improved less: raw scores of 9 to 11,
a gain of 22%. Put differently, the average 12-year-old child in 1974 earned
a Digit Span raw score of 13, but 1949 children of the same age achieved
a score of 10.
Puberty and IQ.—The most critical evidence for the hypothesis rests on
a compelling body of literature exploring puberty and intelligence. When
age is controlled, puberty is reliably associated with higher IQ scores than
prepuberty in almost every study in which the issue was explored. Stone
and Barker (1937) gave the Otis IQ test to 350 Caucasian girls divided into
equal groups by menarcheal status. Despite matching by age and socioeconomic status, the postmenarche group mean IQ was significantly higher than the premenarche group mean. The effect size was calculated as
d = 0.26, implying 13% of intellectual variance was associated with sexual
maturation.
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The issue of sexual maturity and IQ has repeatedly been addressed
in the British literature. Psychologist James Shields studied intelligence
in twins by combining the Dominos and Mill-Hill Vocabulary measures.
Shields (1962) examined female monozygotic and dyzygotic twins and reported the index cases (achieving menarche first) earned higher IQs than
probands in a ratio of 27:7 [χ2 = 10.62 (N = 34) represents a large effect size
of d = 1.35]. Earlier, Shields (1954) reported 31 female twin pairs showed
an index/proband ratio of 21:10. Applying the arcsine method for proportions for this finding (Lipsey & Wilson, 2001) results in a medium effect size of 0.73 (95%CI = 0.54, 0.90). Douglas and Ross (1964) coded IQs,
achievement, and puberty markers longitudinally for 3,300 UK children
at ages 8, 11, and 15 years. “Early and very early maturing” girls, benchmarked to the menarcheal median of 13.5 yr. in a mid-1950s birth cohort,
showed 2% higher IQs than “average girls” but 7% higher than “late” at
age 11 years and 7.9% higher at 15 years. “Mature” boys, based on qualitative Tanner-staging, also earned IQs 7% higher than “infantile” boys at
11 years and 8.3% higher at 15 years. More recently, Shangguan and Shi
(2009) gave boys ages 8–12 years Cattell’s Culture Fair Intelligence Test
and correlated IQs with saliva testosterone levels. There was a significant
positive correlation in 10-year-old boys, suggesting that puberty timing,
when treated as an individual differences variable, is significantly associated with fluid intelligence.
Little is known about puberty onset and national IQ, but in cross-cultural research there are a few data points. Sources of data include Lynn
and Vanhanen’s “national IQ” data tables (2002), and Carol Worthman’s
anthropological investigations (1999). The average age to menarche is 12
to 12.5 years in postindustrial societies such as Japan and Korea, where
the average obtained IQs are 105 to 106. In rural Kenya, median menarche
is 15.9 yr. (Worthman, 1999) and the average obtained IQ in Kenya is 72.
New Guinea appears associated with both the longest median menarche
at 18 to 18.5 years, and the lowest “national IQ” of 59. There are many confounding variables which are difficult to tease apart, but these preliminary
data tentatively support the hypothesis being assessed. In reviewing literature on ethnicity and IQ, it is important to avoid the temptation of treating intelligence as a fixed property.
Social Resources
More years of education is a part of technosocial complexity. Education is clearly longer now than at the turn of the last century. Tuddenham
(1948) compared military cohorts from World War I (inducted 1917) and
World War II (inducted 1943) on an IQ test. He found a stunning 0.8 per
year IQ gain on the Armed Forces General Classification Test. The median
education was 8 years in 1917 but 10 years in 1943. After adjusting for ed-
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361
ucation, WWII soldiers had a 0.3-point increase in mean IQ per year from
1917 to 1943, 35 years before Flynn’s first publication. Clearly, education
plays a role in the Flynn Effect, but only a partial one.
Discussion
This hypothesis is testable. Depending on which maturation data
are coded, a re-analysis of American twin studies can be used to examine index-proband differences in puberty onset. There are currently many
large twin registries (e.g., Klump & Burt, 2006; Lemery-Chalfant, Goldsmith, Schmidt, Arneson, & Van Hulle, 2006). If the hypothesis is viable,
the monozygotic and dizygotic probands with earlier onsets of puberty
would have slightly higher IQs. The hypothesis must include a ceiling effect, because the cognition-related portion of the genome is not infinitely plastic, just as height is not infinitely plastic, i.e., we have not become
a race of giants. The more recent scholarship shows IQ gains leveled off
sometime in the 1990s (Sundet, et al., 2004).
Use of postpubertal retrospective examination of IQs obtained before puberty to inform the question of whether higher IQs precede sexual maturity would change the causal arrow the author has proposed: IQs
during childhood influence puberty timing. Longitudinal studies of brain
MRI should show earlier cortical thickness and quicker synaptic pruning
in persons with earlier puberty, measured by menarcheal age or Tanner
stage. Also, the onset of decline in EEG delta power in marking the start of
adolescent brain reorganization should occur earlier than decades ago, if
secular data are available (Feinberg & Campbell, 2010). Finally, “cognitive
dips” during early adolescence in domain-specific functions such as facial
emotion processing should occur at earlier ages than previously reported
by Carey, Diamond, and Woods (1980).
Explanations adverse to the present hypothesis require consideration.
Alternate hypotheses include “absence of impairment effect,” meaning the Flynn Effect could be explained by progressively fewer children
and adults with cognitive impairments in the population, because of improved healthcare. For example, since the 1950s children born with phenylketonuria are intellectually normalized with a phenylalanine-free diet
but markedly impaired without. Recruitment bias is a variation on this
theme. Sundet, et al. (2004) found secular IQ gains associated with decreasing prevalence of low IQ scores, not a proportional shift up in all
score ranges. The standardization sampling for the WISC and WISC–Revised was different, as the WISC included 2% persons who were “feeble
minded” (now termed “intellectual disability”), but the WISC–Revised
sample did not. Recruitment bias as explanation may be weakened by the
fact that medical science today saves many low-IQ premature infants who
would have died during earlier generations (Flynn, 2009). Additionally,
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the standardization policies for the Wechsler scales do not necessarily reflect the fluctuating base rate for intellectual disability.
The potential role of epigenesis is questioned by Flynn (2009). He contends Dutch males exposed prenatally to the late-war famine showed IQ
gains in line with earlier and later cohorts, an assertion contrary to the current hypothesis. But Flynn overestimates the extent of malnutrition. Stein,
Susser, Saenger, and Marolla (1975) studied IQ in this population, found
no deficits, and pointed out that their cohort was exposed to famine prenatally for only two months and nutrition normalized from birth forward.
Otherwise, nobody disputes that IQ is affected by prolonged malnutrition
prenatally and after birth.
Advancing puberty and associated IQ gains, if definitively supported,
should not be viewed as totally positive. Deployment of resources favoring one adaptive strategy over another comes with costs, and natural selection only favors adaptations that on balance provide net benefits over
costs for the individual, not perfect adaptations (Confer, Easton, Fleischman, Goetz, Lewis, Perilloux, et al., 2010). For example, the larger human brain size (relative to body mass) provides homo sapiens with complex
computing power but has a metabolic cost of higher calorie consumption,
with all the diet-related diseases that calorie-seeking entails (Nesse, 2001).
Mendle, Turkheimer, and Emery (2007) and Ellis (2004) listed the negative side effects of earlier puberty. Earlier puberty in females increases risk
for reproductive system cancers, teenage pregnancy, sexual abuse, medical problems, lower resource investment in offspring, and a cascade of
future burdens such as truncated education. Greater cognitive complexity and flexibility at younger ages also increase risks for experimentation
with drugs (Chechik, et al., 1998).
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