SNHU Module 3 Discussion Model of Transistors Calculations Exercise

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gnvjb2020

Mathematics

Southern New Hampshire University

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Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into Brightspace should work.

Hint: The chart is taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress.

From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.

Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc.

The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.

The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.(the map is attach)

Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion:

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Prediction =

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?


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Module Three Discussion Question: Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into Brightspace should work. Hint: The chart is taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress. From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. .. Our World in Data Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2IPU SPARC M7 32-core AMD Epyc IBM 213 Storage Controller Apple A12x Bionic 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Tegra Xavier SoC Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 Xbox One main SoC 61-Core Xeon Phi" HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 12-core POWER HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX 10-core Core 17 Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 20 Dual-core + GPU In's Core 17 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Pentium D Presler POWERE Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell Itanium 2 with Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 'mobile SOC") 9 MB cache Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Pentium D Smithfield Core 2 Duo Conroe Itanium 2 McKinley Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill AMD K80 Pentium 4 Prescott Pentium 4 Northwoodo Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium III Tualatin Pentium Il Mobile Dixono ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine AMD K6-III AMD K6 O Pentium Ill Katmai 8 Pentium If Beschutes Pentium Pro Pentium II 100,000,000 50,000,000 Transistor count 10,000,000 5,000,000 Klamath Pentium AMD K5 SA 110 Intel 80486 PR4000 1,000,000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Pentium Tran AMD K5 SA-110 Intel 80486 PR4000 1,000,000 500,000 ARM700 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip Intel 80386 Intel 1960 Motorola 68020 ARM 3 DEC WRL Multilitan Intel 80286 100,000 50,000 Motorola 68000 ARM 9TDMI Intel 80186 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 ARM 2 ARM 1 ARM 6 WDC 650816 Novix NC4016 10,000 5,000 Motorola TMS 1000 Zilog 280 6809 RCA 1802 Intel 8085 Intel 8008 Intel 8080 Motorola Technology 6800 6502 Intel 4004 1,000 1970 1978 1988 1986 1984 1992 1996 2000 2016 2014 1990 1994 1998 2018 1972 1974 1976 1980 1982 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that y) goes up uniformly. og(y) Our World in Data Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 11 10 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 9 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2IPU SPARC M7 32-core AMD Epyc IBM 213 Storage Controller Apple A12X Bionic 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Tegra Xavier SoC Xbox One main SoC Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX818 61-Core Xeon Phió HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bio 12-core POWER HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX 310-core Core i7 Broadwell-E Six-core Xeon 7400 Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 Dual-core Itanium 20 Dual-core + GPU Iris Core i7 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Pentium D Presler POWERE Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell Itanium 2 with Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 mobile SoC") 9 MB cache Core i7 (Quad) Itanium 2 Madison 61 AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 2 Pentium D Smithfield Core 2 Duo Conroe Itanium 2 McKinley Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill AMD K80 Pentium 4 Prescott Pentium 4 Northwoodo Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium III Tualatin Pentium II Mobile Dixon AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6-IT AMD K6 8 Pentium IlBeschutes OPentium III Katmai 8 100,000,000 50,000,000 stor count 7 10,000,000 Our World in Data Moore's Law: Transistors per microprocessor Number of transistors which fit into a microprocessor. This relationship was famously related to Moore's Law, which was the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. World 10 billion 1 billion 100 million 10 million 1 million 100,000 10,000 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017 Source: Karl Rupp. 40 Years of Microprocessor Trend Data. CC BY extrapolated va time. function for minimum cost per component Fig. 2 Number of componente per Integrated LOG OF THE NUMBER OF COMPONENTS PER INTEGRATED FUNCTION O-NWANO NOU 1959. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 YEAR Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2019) Our World in Data Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 8 8 8 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 GC2 IPU AMD Epyc Rome 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 AWS Graviton2 SPARC MZ 32-core AMD Epyc IBM 213 Storage Controller Apple A12x Bionic 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 HiSilicon Kirin 990 5G Apple A13 (iPhone 11 Pro) Xbox One main SoC 61-CoreXeon Phi AMD Ryzen 7 3700X 12-core POWERS HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX 10-core Core i7 Broadwell-E Qualcomm Snapdragon 835 Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 2 Dual-core + GPU Iris Core i7 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Pentium D Presler POWERO Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell Itanium 2 with Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SOC") 9 MB cache Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Itanium 2 Madison 6M Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Pentium D Smithfield Core 2 Duo Conroe Itanium 2 McKinley Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2M Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill AMD K8 Pentium 4 Prescott Pentium 4 Northwood Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium II Tualatin Pentium || Mobile Dixon ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine AMD K6-111 100,000,000 50,000,000 Transistor count 10,000,000 5,000,000 AMD K6 Pentium || Katmai Pentium II Deschutes Pentium Pro Pentium II Klamath Pentium AMD K5 SA-110 Intel 80486 R4000 1,000,000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 Intel 1960 ARM 3 DEC WRL Multi Titan 100,000 Intel 80286 Motorola 680000 ARM 9TDMI 50,000 Intel 80186 ARM 6 10,000 5,000 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 ARM 2 ARM 1 WDC Motorola 65C816 TMS 1000 Zilog 280 6809 Novix WDC NC4016 RCA 1802 65C02 Intel 8085 Intel 8008 Intel 8080 Motorola 6502 MOS Technology 6800 Intel 4004 1,000 1974 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 1980 1978 1984 1992 1990 1988 2000 1998 1996 1976 1982 1986 1994 2002 1970 1972 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) OurWorldinData.org - Research and data to make progress against the world's largest problems. Licensed under CC-BY by the author Max Roser.
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