Module Three Discussion Question:
Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part
of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into
Brightspace should work.
Hint: The chart is taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress.
From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate
and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?
In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular
graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the
very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick
marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In
other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.
Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of
technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number
of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100
transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased
at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000
transistors, etc.
The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008
taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for
technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis
it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from
about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from
1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.
..
Our World
in Data
Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress – such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are
linked to Moore's law.
50,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2IPU
SPARC M7
32-core AMD Epyc
IBM 213 Storage Controller
Apple A12x Bionic
18-core Xeon Haswell-E5
Tegra Xavier SoC
Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180
Xbox One main SoC
61-Core Xeon Phi"
HISilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic
12-core POWER
HiSilicon Kirin 710
8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX
10-core Core
17
Qualcomm Snapdragon 835
Six-core Xeon 7400
Dual-core Itanium 20
Dual-core
+ GPU In's Core 17 Broadwell-U
Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K
Pentium D Presler
POWERE
Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell
Itanium 2 with
Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 'mobile SOC")
9 MB cache
Core i7 (Quad)
AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3
Itanium 2 Madison 6MO
Core 2 Duo Wolfdale
Pentium D Smithfield Core 2 Duo Conroe
Itanium 2 McKinley
Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M
Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale
Pentium 4 Cedar Mill
AMD K80 Pentium 4 Prescott
Pentium 4 Northwoodo Barton
Pentium 4 Willamette
Atom
Pentium III Tualatin
Pentium Il Mobile Dixono
ARM Cortex-A9
AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine
AMD K6-III
AMD K6
O Pentium Ill Katmai
8 Pentium If Beschutes
Pentium Pro Pentium II
100,000,000
50,000,000
Transistor count
10,000,000
5,000,000
Klamath
Pentium
AMD K5
SA 110
Intel 80486
PR4000
1,000,000
500,000
TI Explorer's 32-bit
Lisp machine chip
ARM700
Pentium
Tran
AMD K5
SA-110
Intel 80486
PR4000
1,000,000
500,000
ARM700
TI Explorer's 32-bit
Lisp machine chip
Intel 80386 Intel
1960
Motorola 68020
ARM 3
DEC WRL
Multilitan
Intel 80286
100,000
50,000
Motorola
68000
ARM
9TDMI
Intel 80186
Intel 8086
Intel 8088
ARM 2
ARM 1
ARM 6
WDC
650816 Novix
NC4016
10,000
5,000
Motorola
TMS 1000 Zilog 280 6809
RCA 1802
Intel 8085
Intel 8008
Intel 8080
Motorola
Technology
6800
6502
Intel 4004
1,000
1970
1978
1988
1986
1984
1992
1996
2000
2016
2014
1990
1994
1998
2018
1972
1974
1976
1980
1982
Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that
log(y) goes up uniformly.
following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that
y) goes up uniformly.
og(y)
Our World
in Data
Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018)
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are
linked to Moore's law.
50,000,000,000
11
10
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
9
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2IPU
SPARC M7
32-core AMD Epyc
IBM 213 Storage Controller
Apple A12X Bionic
18-core Xeon Haswell-E5
Tegra Xavier SoC
Xbox One main SoC
Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX818
61-Core Xeon Phió
HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bio
12-core POWER
HiSilicon Kirin 710
8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX
310-core Core i7 Broadwell-E
Six-core Xeon 7400
Qualcomm Snapdragon 835
Dual-core Itanium 20
Dual-core + GPU Iris Core i7 Broadwell-U
Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K
Pentium D Presler
POWERE
Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell
Itanium 2 with
Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 mobile SoC")
9 MB cache
Core i7 (Quad)
Itanium 2 Madison 61
AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3
2
Pentium D Smithfield Core 2 Duo Conroe
Itanium 2 McKinley
Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M
Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale
Pentium 4 Cedar Mill
AMD K80
Pentium 4 Prescott
Pentium 4 Northwoodo Barton
Pentium 4 Willamette
Atom
Pentium III Tualatin
Pentium II Mobile Dixon
AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine
ARM Cortex-A9
AMD K6-IT
AMD K6
8 Pentium IlBeschutes
OPentium III Katmai
8
100,000,000
50,000,000
stor count
7
10,000,000
Our World
in Data
Moore's Law: Transistors per microprocessor
Number of transistors which fit into a microprocessor. This relationship was famously related to Moore's Law, which
was the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two
years.
World
10 billion
1 billion
100 million
10 million
1 million
100,000
10,000
1971
1980
1990
2000
2010
2017
Source: Karl Rupp. 40 Years of Microprocessor Trend Data.
CC BY
extrapolated va time.
function for minimum cost per component
Fig. 2 Number of componente per Integrated
LOG OF THE NUMBER OF
COMPONENTS PER INTEGRATED FUNCTION
O-NWANO NOU
1959.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
YEAR
Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2019)
Our World
in Data
Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products – are
linked to Moore's law.
50,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
8
8
8
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
GC2 IPU
AMD Epyc Rome
72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400
AWS Graviton2
SPARC MZ
32-core AMD Epyc
IBM 213 Storage Controller
Apple A12x Bionic
18-core Xeon Haswell-E5
HiSilicon Kirin 990 5G
Apple A13 (iPhone 11 Pro)
Xbox One main SoC
61-CoreXeon Phi
AMD Ryzen 7 3700X
12-core POWERS
HiSilicon Kirin 710
8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX
10-core Core i7 Broadwell-E
Qualcomm Snapdragon 835
Six-core Xeon 7400
Dual-core Itanium 2
Dual-core + GPU Iris Core i7 Broadwell-U
Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K
Pentium D Presler
POWERO
Quad-core + GPU Core i7 Haswell
Itanium 2 with
Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SOC")
9 MB cache
Core i7 (Quad)
AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3
Itanium 2 Madison 6M
Core 2 Duo Wolfdale
Pentium D Smithfield
Core 2 Duo Conroe
Itanium 2 McKinley
Cell
Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M
Pentium 4 Prescott-2M
Core 2 Duo Allendale
Pentium 4 Cedar Mill
AMD K8
Pentium 4 Prescott
Pentium 4 Northwood
Barton
Pentium 4 Willamette
Atom
Pentium II Tualatin
Pentium || Mobile Dixon
ARM Cortex-A9
AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine
AMD K6-111
100,000,000
50,000,000
Transistor count
10,000,000
5,000,000
AMD K6
Pentium || Katmai
Pentium II Deschutes
Pentium Pro Pentium II
Klamath
Pentium
AMD K5
SA-110
Intel 80486
R4000
1,000,000
500,000
TI Explorer's 32-bit
Lisp machine chip
ARM700
Intel 80386
Motorola 68020
Intel
1960
ARM 3
DEC WRL
Multi Titan
100,000
Intel 80286
Motorola
680000
ARM
9TDMI
50,000
Intel 80186
ARM 6
10,000
5,000
Intel 8086 Intel 8088
ARM 2
ARM 1
WDC
Motorola
65C816
TMS 1000 Zilog 280 6809
Novix
WDC
NC4016
RCA 1802
65C02
Intel 8085
Intel 8008
Intel 8080
Motorola 6502
MOS Technology
6800
Intel 4004
1,000
1974
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
1980
1978
1984
1992
1990
1988
2000
1998
1996
1976
1982
1986
1994
2002
1970
1972
Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)
OurWorldinData.org - Research and data to make progress against the world's largest problems.
Licensed under CC-BY by the author Max Roser.
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