Hello, am almost done, This is almost the final copy and whats remaining it adding citations. I will be done in about 1 -2 hour

1-Research title
The Effect of population Growth on Car Fuels Demand in Saudi Arabia

2- Topic Statement
Saudi Arabia population consumes a significant amount of transportation energy especially on car
fuels. The increase in car fuel demand and consumption is attributed to the increase in population
which increase from 9.3 million in 1980 to about 31.5 million in 2015 (World Bank, 2016). The fuel
demand rose rapidly from about twenty-three tones to about two hundred tones making Saudi Arabia
the 10th largest consumer of car gasoline in the world. Besides high economic and population growth,
low fuel prices has further contributed to the increased consumption of car fuel. According to Saudi
Arabia ministry of economy and planning road transport is the largest consumer of fuel energy.
The increased fuel consumption is linked to the increased in income which has enabled many
households to own private vehicles, while at the same time, economic growth and development has
led to development of good road infrastructure and highway networks connecting various cities in
Saudi Arabia (MEP, 2016). The high demand for private vehicles is to reinforce the current deficiency
of public transport in the cities. Additionally, the low fuel prices have escalated the demand for the
car fuel with a growth rate of about six percent per annum.
There is an emerging technology where cars no longer have to run on gasoline. What will happen if
most vehicles are run on other forms of energy other than gasoline? Definitely there will be a
transformation of fuel consumption on cars and trucks. Most of the car owners in Saudi Arabia have
not adopted this technology and are dependent on gasoline as their main source of car fuel.
3- research questions
How did population growth affect consumption of car fuels between 1980 and 2017 in Saudi Arabia?
Does population growth affect consumption of car fuel?
Does changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia?
What is the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth and
development, and car ownership, on car fuel demand?
3-1 Research Objectives
To analyze the effects of population growth on the consumption of car fuel between 1980 to 2017 in
Saudi Arabia.
To find the relationship between population growth and consumption of car fuel
To establish if changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia
To analyze the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth and
development, and car ownership on car fuel prices.
4- literature review
Many studies have been conducted to find out the relationship between population growth and
demand for car fuels for Saudi Arabia and other related countries.

A study analyzes how population growth has been able to impact car fuel demand for the period
between 1980 and 2017. The studies established that thousands of barrels of fuel are consumed per
day with an average of two hundred and seventy-four thousand barrels consumed daily. 1980 had the
minimum amount of car fuel consumption with an average of 95.2 thousand barrels per day and the
maximum amount of fuel consumption was recorded in 2017 where there was an average of five
hundred and seventy thousand barrels of car fuel consumed daily. The world average consumption of
car fuel is about 138.56 barrels per day as at 2017. This data shows that there is a high car fuel
consumption in Saudi Arabia compared to many countries. Various research carried out examining
the relationship between fuel consumption and population growth show varied results. Some results
suggest that increase in population may not lead to any changes in car in fuel consumption, but this is
not the case in Saudi Arabia. The increased consumption car fuel over time is mainly as a result of
increased population and demand for more private cars.
Dahl have carried out several surveys to establish the car fuel demand models and their elasticity
estimates. Studies conducted by Dahl showed the on average short- run price elasticity was -0.29
while the long-run price elasticity was -1.02. Additionally, the short-run income elasticity was 0.47,
and the long-run income elasticity was 1.38. Moreover, Dahl established that for static models, had
gasoline prices price elasticities for middle income economies with low fuel prices was about -0.11
and -0.33 for high economies with high fuel price. This study shows that car fuel demand in price
inelastic both during short-run and during long-run. A study conducted by Espey showed that car fuel
price and income elasticities are sensitive to inclusion or exclusion of car ownership and car fuel
demand is more price elastic over time and less income elastic. The above studies suggest that car
fuel demand is price and income inelastic both during short-run and long-run and this is evident in
Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s car fuel demand is strongly price inelastic. This results are from the fact
that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and real non-oil GDP are used to measure Saudi Arabia’s
income when disposable income indicator cannot be identified. Changes in car fuel prices have
minimal impact on the real household income leading to fluctuation in real GDP and non-oil GDP in
the short run. However, long-run fluctuation of car fuel prices may lead to changes in household
income. This will greatly influence the demand for fuel.
Saudi Arabia has increased the number of car fuel users by lifting the ban on women drivers. As part
of women empowerment initiative in line with vision 2030 Saudi Arabia is projecting that there will be
an increase of about three million women drivers in 2023. This will increase the demand for car fuel in
the near future either directly or indirectly. Additionally, lifting the ban will lead to increase in car
sales and since cars and fuel are complimentary goods, an increase in car purchases leads to increase
consumption and demand for fuel. Prices of commodities have a significant impact on their demand.
Lower car fuel prices mean that the demand for fuel prices will increase since consumers will have
more disposable income remaining and it will prompt them to consume more fuel. On the other
hand, higher prices result in negative demand for car fuel, and increasing the fuel prices in the longrun will prompt people to find other ways of transport such as public transport and this will cause fuel
demand to decrease significantly.
This study aims at investigating population growth, changes in income, economic growth, car
ownership effects on car fuel prices. The rapid population growth and economic development in
Saudi Arabia is strongly associated with increase in demand for transportation particularly car
transport. The city of Riyadh which is the capital city of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been has had a
rapid population growth especially in the late twentieth century. Rapid population growth is always
accompanied with increase in economic activities and mobility. This has led to increased levels of car
ownership and car transportation and consequently leading to construction of various highways and
expressways across the city. This pattern of growth both economic and demographic is expected to
prevail in the future. Many factors influence the number of vehicles owned in Saudi Arabia and rapid

population growth is the among the major factors. Other factors include economic factors, policy
restrictions, public transport services, and economic growth. There are many studies which relate car
ownership, demographic, and economic factors and they are especially applicable in countries that
are still developing. Increase in population owning cars means that there will be a significant increase
in demand for fuel in Saudi Arabia.
5- Study design/ theoretical orientation
The study scrutinizes the following null hypothesis:
Hypothesis 1: population growth has led to increased consumption of car fuel in Saudi Arabia.
Hypothesis 2: economic growth and development has led to increase in car ownership leading to
increased demand for car fuel in Saudi Arabia.
Hypothesis 3: encouraging the use of private cars over public means of transport has led to increased
consumption of car fuel.
6- Research methods
6.1. Data
This study is based on the data for car fuel consumption, car fuel prices, income, and the population
size in Saudi Arabia. The car fuel prices series are retrieved from data that was issued in Saudi Arabia
as from 1980 to 2017. Population changes over time and growth was retrieved from world bank data,
and real GDP and non-oil GDP data was obtained from SAMA Yearly Statistics, Saudi Arabia, while car
fuel consumption data were obtained from Saudi Ministry of Energy. Women were included in
calculating total population because the ban on women drivers has been lifted therefore contributing
to oil consumption.
6.2 The Model
The per capita car fuel demand in Saudi Arabia is modelled as a function of population growth, the car
fuel price, real income per head, and other basic energy demand trend
CFt = f (PGt, Yt, Pt, BEDTt)
Where;
CFt is car fuel demand per head
PG is the population growth over time
Yt is the real car fuel price
Pt real income per head that is based on GDP or non-oil GDP per head
BEDTt are the basic energy demand trends.
6.3 Study Variables
Car fuel demand per head: This is the amount of car fuel that a single individual demands to operate
their cars and also consumption of fuel depending on the distance covered per kilometer and
frequency of using cars.
Population growth over time: population growth is the increase of in the number of people living in a
country (Saudi Arabia) over a specified period of time. in this case this the increase in population in
relation to how they will consume car fuel.
Real car fuel prices: this the price paid when an individual consumes car fuel within a specific period
of time.

Real income: this is the amount of income and individual makes after accounting for inflation. It
affects the purchasing power of Saudi Arabian citizens.
Basic energy demand trends: this are the important influences on energy demand in addition to
regular economic variables such as price and income.
7- Proposed dissemination- Timetable
Phase

Planned sequence of major
tasks

Approximate period (week)

Attached. Please let me know if you have any questions or need revisions.

Master of Science
Applied Energy Economics
Research Methods and Report Writing
Research Proposal

Research Project Title
The Effect Of Population Growth On Car Fuel Demand In Saudi Arabia

Under Supervision of

1-Research title
The Effect of population Growth on Car Fuels Demand in Saudi Arabia

2- Topic Statement
Saudi Arabia's population consumes a significant amount of transportation energy, especially
on car fuels. The increase in car fuel demand and consumption is attributed to the increase in
population, which increases from 9.3 million in 1980 to about 31.5 million in 2015 (World
Bank, 2016). The fuel demand rose rapidly from about twenty-three tones to about two
hundred tones making Saudi Arabia the 10th largest car gasoline consumer in the world.
Besides high economic and population growth, low fuel prices have further contributed to
increased car fuel consumption. According to Saudi Arabia's ministry of economy and
planning, road transport is the largest fuel energy consumer (MEP 2016). The increased fuel
consumption is linked to the increased in income, which has enabled many households to own
private vehicles, while at the same time, economic growth and development has led to the
development of good road infrastructure and highway networks connecting various cities in
Saudi, Arabia (MEP 2016). The high demand for private vehicles is to reinforce the current
deficiency of public transport in the cities. Additionally, the low fuel prices have escalated the
demand for car fuel with a growth rate of about six percent per annum.
There is an emerging technology where cars no longer have to run on gasoline. What will
happen if most vehicles are run on other forms of energy other than gasoline? Definitely, there
will be a transformation of fuel consumption on cars and trucks. Most of the car owners in

Saudi Arabia have not adopted this technology and are dependent on gasoline as their main
source of car fuel.

3- Research Questions
How did population growth affect the consumption of car fuels between 1980 and 2017 in
Saudi Arabia?
Does population growth affect the consumption of car fuel?
Do changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia?
What is the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth and
development, and car ownership on car fuel demand?

3-1 Research Objectives
To analyze the effects of population growth on the consumption of car fuel between 1980 to
2017 in Saudi Arabia.
To find the relationship between population growth and consumption of car fuel
To establish if changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia
To analyze the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth
and development, and car ownership on car fuel prices.

4- Literature Review

Many studies have been conducted to find out the relationship between population growth and
demand for car fuels for Saudi Arabia and other related countries.

A study analyzes how population growth has been able to impact car fuel demand for the
period between 1980 and 2017. The studies established that thousands of barrels of fuel are
consumed per day, with an average of two hundred and seventy-four thousand barrels
consumed daily. 1980 had the minimum amount of car fuel consumption with an average of
95.2 thousand barrels per day, and the maximum amount of fuel consumption was recorded in
2017 where there was an average of five hundred and seventy thousand barrels of car fuel
consumed daily. The average world consumption of car fuel is about 138.56 barrels per day as
of 2017 (Global economy, 2017). This data shows that there is high car fuel consumption in
Saudi Arabia compared to many countries. Various research carried out examining the
relationship between fuel consumption and population growth show varied results. Some
results suggest that an increase in population may not lead to any changes in car fuel
consumption, but this is not the case in Saudi Arabia. The increased consumption of car fuel
over time is mainly due to increased population and demand for more private cars.

Dahl has carried out several surveys to establish the car fuel demand models and their
elasticity estimates. Studies conducted by Dahl showed that, on average, the short-run price
elasticity was -0.29 while the long-run price elasticity was -1.02. Additionally, the short-run
income elasticity was 0.47, and the long-run income elasticity was 1.38. Moreover, Dahl
established that for static models gasoline prices, price elasticities for middle-income
economies with low fuel prices was about -0.11 and -0.33 for high economies with high fuel

price (Dahl & Sterner, 1991). This study shows that car fuel demand is price inelastic both
during the short-run and during the long-run. A study conducted by Espey showed that car fuel
price and income elasticities are sensitive to inclusion or exclusion of car ownership and car
fuel demand is more price elastic over time and less income elastic (Espey, 1998). The above
studies suggest that car fuel demand is price and income inelastic both during the short-run
and long-run, which is evident in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's car fuel demand strongly prices
inelastic. This results are from the fact that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and real nonoil GDP are used to measure Saudi Arabia's income when disposable income indicators cannot
be identified. Changes in car fuel prices have minimal impact on the real household income
leading to the fluctuation in real GDP and non-oil GDP in the short run. However, long-run
fluctuation of car fuel prices may lead to changes in household income (Mikayilov et al.,
2019). This will greatly influence the demand for fuel.

Saudi Arabia has increased the number of car fuel users by lifting the ban on women drivers.
As part of a women empowerment initiative in line with vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is
projecting that there will be an increase of about three million women drivers in 2023 ("Saudi
Arabia's ban on women driving officially ends," 2018). This will increase the demand for car
fuel in the near future either directly or indirectly. Additionally, lifting the ban will lead to an
increase in car sales, and since cars and fuel are complementary goods, an increase in car
purchases leads to increase consumption and demand for fuel. Prices of commodities have a
significant impact on their demand. Lower car fuel prices mean that the demand for fuel prices
will increase since consumers will have more disposable income remaining, and it will prompt
them to consume more fuel. On the other hand, higher prices result in negative demand for car

fuel, and increasing the fuel prices in the long-run will prompt people to find other ways of
transport such as public transport, and this will cause fuel demand to decrease significantly.

This study aims at investigating population growth, changes in income, economic growth, car
ownership effects on car fuel prices. The rapid population growth and economic development
in Saudi Arabia are strongly associated with an increase in demand for transportation,
particularly car transport. Riyadh, the capital city of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has had
rapid population growth, especially in the late twentieth century. Rapid population growth is
always accompanied by an increase in economic activities and mobility. This has led to
increased car ownership levels and car transportation, consequently leading to the construction
of various highways and expressways across the city. This pattern of growth, both economic
and demographic, is expected to prevail in the future. Many factors influence the number of
vehicles owned in Saudi Arabia, and rapid population growth is among the major factors.
Other factors include economic factors, policy restrictions, public transport services, and
economic growth. There are many studies that relate car ownership, demographic, and
economic factors, and they are especially applicable in countries that are still developing. An
increase in the population owning cars means that there will be a significant increase in
demand for fuel in Saudi Arabia.

5- Study Design/ Theoretical Orientation
The study scrutinizes the following null hypothesis:

Hypothesis 1: Population growth has led to increased consumption of car fuel in Saudi
Arabia.
Hypothesis 2: Economic growth and development have led to an increase in car ownership,
leading to increased demand for car fuel in Saudi Arabia.
Hypothesis 3: Encouraging the use of private cars over public means of transport has led to
increased consumption of car fuel.

6- Research Methods
6.1. Data
This study is based on the data for car fuel consumption, car fuel prices, income, and
population size in Saudi Arabia. The car fuel prices series are retrieved from data that was
issued in Saudi Arabia from 1980 to 2017 (Global economy). Population changes over time
and growth were retrieved from world bank data (World Bank, 2016), and real GDP and nonoil GDP data were obtained from SAMA Yearly Statistics, Saudi Arabia (SAMA, 2016), while
car fuel consumption data were obtained from the Saudi Ministry of Energy (MEP, 2016).
Women were included in calculating the total population because the ban on women drivers
has been lifted, therefore contributing to oil consumption.

6.2 The Model
The per capita car fuel demand in Saudi Arabia is modeled as a function of population growth,
the car fuel price, real income per head, and other basic energy demand trends (Atalla et al.,
2018).

CFt = f (PGt, Yt, Pt, BEDTt)
Where;
CFt is car fuel demand per head
PG is the population growth over time
Yt is the real car fuel price
Pt real income per head that is based on GDP or non-oil GDP per head
BEDTt is the basic energy demand trends.

6.3 Study Variables
Car fuel demand per head: This is the amount of car fuel that a single individual demand to
operate their cars and fuel consumption depending on the distance covered per kilometer and
the frequency of using cars.
Population growth over time: population growth is the increase in the number of people living
in a country (Saudi Arabia) over a specified period of time. In this case, this the increase in
population in relation to how they will consume car fuel.
Real car fuel prices: this the price paid when an individual consumes car fuel within a specific
period of time.
Real income: this is the amount of income an individual makes after accounting for inflation.
It affects the purchasing power of Saudi Arabian citizens.
Basic energy demand trends: this is the important influences on energy demand in addition to
regular economic variables such as price and income.

7- Proposed dissemination- Timetable

Phase

Planned sequence of major tasks

Approximate period (week)

1

Topic statement

1

2

Date collected

2

3

Literature Review

3-4

4

Methods

5-12

5

Report

13-15

References
Atalla, T. N., Gasim, A. A., & Hunt, L. C. (2018). Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and
social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis. Energy Policy, 114, 123133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.047
Dahl, C., & Sterner, T. (1991). Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: A survey. Energy
Economics, 13(3), 203-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(91)90021-q
Espey, M. (1998). Gasoline demand revisited: An international meta-analysis of
elasticities. Energy Economics, 20(3), 273-295. https://doi.org/10.1016/s01409883(97)00013-3
Global economy. (2017). Saudi Arabia gasoline consumption - data, chart |
TheGlobalEconomy.com.
TheGlobalEconomy.com. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/SaudiArabia/gasoline_consumption/
MEP. (2016). Ministry of economy & planning | Ministry of economy and planning (MEP) Economy of Saudi Arabia. https://www.mep.gov.sa/en
Mikayilov, J., Joutz, F., & Hasanov, F. (2019). Gasoline demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the
price and income elasticities constant? https://doi.org/10.30573/ks--2019-dp81
SAMA. (2016). Yearly Statistics: Annual Statistics. Saudi Arabia. National Accounts
Statistics: Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables. https://doi.org/10.18356/7607ec7den
Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving officially ends. (2018, June 24). BBC
News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-

44576795#:~:text=Saudi%20women%20are%20officially%20allowed,to%20women
%20earlier%20this%20month
World Bank. (2016). World Development Indicators 2016. Creative Commons Attribution.
Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978–1-4648–0683–4

Attached. Please let me know if you have any questions or need revisions.

Master of Science
Applied Energy Economics
Research Methods and Report Writing
Research Proposal

Research Project Title
The Effect Of Population Growth On Car Fuel Demand In Saudi Arabia

Under Supervision of

1-Research title
The Effect of population Growth on Car Fuels Demand in Saudi Arabia

2- Topic Statement
Saudi Arabia's population consumes a significant amount of transportation energy, especially
on car fuels. The increase in car fuel demand and consumption is attributed to the increase in
population, which increases from 9.3 million in 1980 to about 31.5 million in 2015 (World
Bank, 2016). Fuel demand grew rapidly from around twenty-three tones to around two
hundred tones, making Saudi Arabia the world’s 10th largest user of car gasoline. Low fuel
prices have further led to higher car fuel usage, in addition to high population and economic
growth. According to Saudi Arabia's ministry of economy and planning, road transport is the
largest fuel energy consumer. The increased fuel consumption is linked to the increased in
income, which has enabled many households to own private vehicles, while at the same time,
economic growth and development has led to the development of good road infrastructure and
highway networks connecting various cities in Saudi, Arabia. The high demand for private
vehicles is to reinforce the current deficiency of public transport in the cities. Additionally, the
low fuel prices have escalated the demand for car fuel with a growth rate of about six percent
per annum.
There is an emerging technology where cars no longer have to run on gasoline. What will
happen if most vehicles are run on other forms of energy other than gasoline? Definitely, there
will be a transformation of fuel consumption on cars and trucks. Most of the car owners in

Saudi Arabia have not adopted this technology and are dependent on gasoline as their main
source of car fuel.

3- Research Questions
How did population growth affect the consumption of car fuels between 1980 and 2017 in
Saudi Arabia?
Does population growth affect the consumption of car fuel?
Do changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia?
What is the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth and
development, and car ownership on car fuel demand?

3-1 Research Objectives
To analyze the effects of population growth on the consumption of car fuel between 1980 to
2017 in Saudi Arabia.
To find the relationship between population growth and consumption of car fuel
To establish if changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia
To analyze the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth
and development, and car ownership on car fuel prices.

4- Literature Review

Many studies have been undertaken to find out the correlation between population growth and
demand for car fuels for Saudi Arabia and other related countries.

A study by (Global economy, 2017) analyzes how population growth has been able to impact
car fuel demand for the period between 1980 and 2017. The studies established that thousands
of barrels of fuel are consumed per day, with an average of two hundred and seventy-four
thousand barrels consumed daily. 1980 had the minimum amount of car fuel consumption with
an average of 95.2 thousand barrels a day, and the highest quantity of fuel consumption was
recorded in 2017 where there was an average of five hundred and seventy thousand barrels of
car fuel consumed daily. The average world consumption of car fuel is about 138.56 barrels
per day as of 2017 (Global economy, 2017). This data shows that there is high car fuel
consumption in Saudi Arabia compared to many countries. Various research carried out
examining the relationship between fuel consumption and population growth show varied
results. Some results suggest that an increase in population may not lead to any changes in car
fuel consumption, but this is not the case in Saudi Arabia. The increased consumption of car
fuel over time is mainly due to increased population and demand for more private cars.

Study by Dahl and Sterner (Dahl & Sterner, 1991) established the effects elasticities on fuel
consumption during short and long-run. Studies conducted by Dahl proved that, on average,
the short-run price elasticity was -0.29 while the elasticity of long-run price was -1.02.In
addition, 0.47 was the short-run income elasticity, and 1.38 was the long-run income elasticity.
In addition, Dahl suggested that for static gasoline models, price elasticity was approximately 0.11 for middle income economies with low fuel prices and -0.33 for high fuel economies with

high fuel prices respectively (Dahl & Sterner, 1991). This research shows that the market for
car fuels is inelastic both during the short-run and during the long-run. A study conducted by
Espey showed that car fuel price and income elasticities are vulnerable to inclusion or
exclusion of car ownership and car fuel demand price elasticity is more over time and income
elastic (Espey, 1998). The above studies suggest that car fuel demand is inelastic in price and
income during both short and long-run, which is evident in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's car
fuel demand strongly prices inelastic. This results are from the fact that real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and real non-oil GDP are used to measure Saudi Arabia's income when
disposable income indicators cannot be identified. Changes in car fuel prices have minimal
impact on the real household income leading to the fluctuation in real GDP and non-oil GDP
in the short run. However, long-run fluctuation of car fuel prices may lead to changes in
household income (Mikayilov et al., 2019). This will greatly influence the demand for fuel.

A study by (Ahmad & Mahfooz, 2018) show how Saudi Arabia has increased the number of
car fuel users by lifting the ban on women drivers. As part of a women empowerment
initiative in line with vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is projecting that there will be an increase of
about three million women drivers in 2023 ("Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving officially
ends," 2018). This will increase the demand for car fuel in the near future either directly or
indirectly. Additionally, lifting the ban will lead to an increase in car sales, and since cars and
fuel are complementary goods, a rise in car purchases leads to growth in consumption and
demand for fuel. Prices of commodities have a significant impact on their demand. Lower car
fuel prices mean that the demand for fuel prices will increase since consumers will have more
disposable income remaining, and it will prompt them to consume more fuel. On the other

hand, higher prices result in negative demand for car fuel, and increasing the fuel prices in the
long-run will prompt people to find other ways of transport such as public transport, and this
will cause fuel demand to decrease significantly.

A study by (Labandeira et al., 2016) aims at investigating population growth, changes in
income, economic growth, environmental effects, and car ownership effects on car fuel prices.
The rapid population growth and economic development in Saudi Arabia are strongly
associated with an increase in demand for transportation, particularly car transport. Riyadh, the
capital city of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has had rapid population growth, especially in the
late twentieth century. Rapid population growth is always accompanied by an increase in
economic activities and mobility. This has led to increased car ownership levels and car
transportation, consequently leading to the construction of various highways and expressways
across the city. This pattern of growth, both economic and demographic, is expected to prevail
in the future. Many factors influence the number of vehicles owned in Saudi Arabia, and rapid
population growth is among the major factors. Other factors include economic factors, policy
restrictions, public transport services, and economic growth. There are many studies that relate
car ownership, demographic, and economic factors, and they are especially applicable in
countries that are still developing. An increase in the population owning cars means that there
will be a significant increase in demand for fuel in Saudi Arabia.

5- Study Design/ Theoretical Orientation
The study scrutinizes the following null hypothesis:

Hypothesis 1: Population growth has led to increased consumption of car fuel in Saudi
Arabia.
Hypothesis 2: Economic growth and development have led to an increase in car ownership,
leading to increased demand for car fuel in Saudi Arabia.
Hypothesis 3: Encouraging the use of private cars over public means of transport has led to
increased consumption of car fuel.

6- Research Methods
6.1. Data
This research bases on the data for car fuel consumption, car fuel prices, size of the
population, and income in Saudi Arabia. The car fuel prices series are retrieved from data that
was issued in Saudi Arabia from 1980 to 2017 (Global economy). Population changes over
time and growth were retrieved from world bank data (World Bank, 2016), and SAMA Yearly
Statistics provided the information and data on real GDP and non-oil GDP, Saudi Arabia
(SAMA, 2016), while car fuel consumption data were obtained from the Saudi Ministry of
Energy (MEP, 2016). Women were included in calculating the total population because the
ban on women drivers has been lifted, therefore contributing to oil consumption.

6.2 The Model
The per capita car fuel demand in Saudi Arabia is a model of a function of population growth,
the car fuel price, real income per head, and other basic energy demand trends (Atalla et al.,
2018).

CFt = Bo + B1Yt + B2 PG + B3 Pt +B4 BEDTt
Where;
CFt is car fuel demand per head
PG is the population growth over time
Yt is the real car fuel price
Pt real income per head that is based on GDP or non-oil GDP per head
BEDTt is the basic energy demand trends.

6.3 Study Variables
Car fuel demand per head: This is the amount of car fuel that a single individual demand to
operate their cars and fuel consumption depending on the distance covered per kilometer and
the frequency of using cars.
Population growth over time: population growth is the increase in the size of and number of
people living in a country (Saudi Arabia) over a specified period of time. In this case, this the
increase in population in relation to how they will consume car fuel.
Real car fuel prices: this the price paid when an individual consumes car fuel within a specific
period of time.
Real income: this is the amount of income an individual makes after accounting for inflation.
It affects the purchasing power of Saudi Arabian citizens.
Basic energy demand trends: this is the important influences on energy demand in addition to
regular economic variables such as price and income.

7- Proposed dissemination- Timetable

Phase

Planned sequence of major tasks

Approximate period (week)

1

Topic statement

1

2

Date collected

2

3

Literature Review

3-4

4

Methods

5-12

5

Report

13-15

References
Ahmad, F., & Mahfooz, Y. (2018). End of ban on women driving in Saudi arabiaImplications for automobile brands. Archives of Business
Research, 6(12). https://doi.org/10.14738/abr.612.5841
Atalla, T. N., Gasim, A. A., & Hunt, L. C. (2018). Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and
social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis. Energy Policy, 114, 123133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.047
Dahl, C., & Sterner, T. (1991). Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: A survey. Energy
Economics, 13(3), 203-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(91)90021-q
Espey, M. (1998). Gasoline demand revisited: An international meta-analysis of
elasticities. Energy Economics, 20(3), 273-295. https://doi.org/10.1016/s01409883(97)00013-3
Global economy. (2017). Saudi Arabia gasoline consumption - data, chart |
TheGlobalEconomy.com.
TheGlobalEconomy.com. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/SaudiArabia/gasoline_consumption/
Labandeira, X., Labeaga Azcona, J. M., & LLpez-Otero, X. (2016). A meta-analysis on the
price elasticity of energy demand. SSRN Electronic
Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2768161
Mikayilov, J., Joutz, F., & Hasanov, F. (2019). Gasoline demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the
price and income elasticities constant? https://doi.org/10.30573/ks--2019-dp81

SAMA. (2016). Yearly Statistics: Annual Statistics. Saudi Arabia. National Accounts
Statistics: Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables. https://doi.org/10.18356/7607ec7den
Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving officially ends. (2018, June 24). BBC
News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east44576795#:~:text=Saudi%20women%20are%20officially%20allowed,to%20women
%20earlier%20this%20month
World Bank. (2016). World Development Indicators 2016. Creative Commons Attribution.
Washington, DC: World Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648–0163-1

this is te right one now, the data is captured in the eferenced soiurces

Master of Science
Applied Energy Economics
Research Methods and Report Writing
Research Proposal

Research Project Title
The Effect Of Population Growth On Car Fuel Demand In Saudi Arabia

Under Supervision of

1-Research title
The Effect of population Growth on Car Fuels Demand in Saudi Arabia

2- Topic Statement
Saudi Arabia's population consumes a significant amount of transportation energy, especially
on car fuels. The increase in car fuel demand and consumption is attributed to the increase in
population, which increases from 9.3 million in 1980 to about 31.5 million in 2015 (World
Bank, 2016). Fuel demand grew rapidly from around twenty-three tones to around two
hundred tones, making Saudi Arabia the world’s 10th largest user of car gasoline. Low fuel
prices have further led to higher car fuel usage, in addition to high population and economic
growth. According to Saudi Arabia's ministry of economy and planning, road transport is the
largest fuel energy consumer. The increased fuel consumption is linked to the increased in
income, which has enabled many households to own private vehicles, while at the same time,
economic growth and development has led to the development of good road infrastructure and
highway networks connecting various cities in Saudi, Arabia. The high demand for private
vehicles is to reinforce the current deficiency of public transport in the cities. Additionally, the
low fuel prices have escalated the demand for car fuel with a growth rate of about six percent
per annum.
There is an emerging technology where cars no longer have to run on gasoline. What will
happen if most vehicles are run on other forms of energy other than gasoline? Definitely, there
will be a transformation of fuel consumption on cars and trucks. Most of the car owners in

Saudi Arabia have not adopted this technology and are dependent on gasoline as their main
source of car fuel.

3- Research Questions
How did population growth affect the consumption of car fuels between 1980 and 2017 in
Saudi Arabia?
Does population growth affect the consumption of car fuel?
Do changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia?
What is the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth and
development, and car ownership on car fuel demand?

3-1 Research Objectives
To analyze the effects of population growth on the consumption of car fuel between 1980 to
2017 in Saudi Arabia.
To find the relationship between population growth and consumption of car fuel
To establish if changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia
To analyze the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth
and development, and car ownership on car fuel prices.

4- Literature Review

Many studies have been undertaken to find out the correlation between population growth and
demand for car fuels for Saudi Arabia and other related countries.

A study by (Global economy, 2017) analyzes how population growth has been able to impact
car fuel demand for the period between 1980 and 2017. The studies established that thousands
of barrels of fuel are consumed per day, with an average of two hundred and seventy-four
thousand barrels consumed daily. 1980 had the minimum amount of car fuel consumption with
an average of 95.2 thousand barrels a day, and the highest quantity of fuel consumption was
recorded in 2017 where there was an average of five hundred and seventy thousand barrels of
car fuel consumed daily. The average world consumption of car fuel is about 138.56 barrels
per day as of 2017 (Global economy, 2017). This data shows that there is high car fuel
consumption in Saudi Arabia compared to many countries. Various research carried out
examining the relationship between fuel consumption and population growth show varied
results. Some results suggest that an increase in population may not lead to any changes in car
fuel consumption, but this is not the case in Saudi Arabia. The increased consumption of car
fuel over time is mainly due to increased population and demand for more private cars.

Study by Dahl and Sterner (Dahl & Sterner, 1991) established the effects elasticities on fuel
consumption during short and long-run. Studies conducted by Dahl proved that, on average,
the short-run price elasticity was -0.29 while the elasticity of long-run price was -1.02.In
addition, 0.47 was the short-run income elasticity, and 1.38 was the long-run income elasticity.
In addition, Dahl suggested that for static gasoline models, price elasticity was approximately 0.11 for middle income economies with low fuel prices and -0.33 for high fuel economies with

high fuel prices respectively (Dahl & Sterner, 1991). This research shows that the market for
car fuels is inelastic both during the short-run and during the long-run. A study conducted by
Espey showed that car fuel price and income elasticities are vulnerable to inclusion or
exclusion of car ownership and car fuel demand price elasticity is more over time and income
elastic (Espey, 1998). The above studies suggest that car fuel demand is inelastic in price and
income during both short and long-run, which is evident in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's car
fuel demand strongly prices inelastic. This results are from the fact that real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and real non-oil GDP are used to measure Saudi Arabia's income when
disposable income indicators cannot be identified. Changes in car fuel prices have minimal
impact on the real household income leading to the fluctuation in real GDP and non-oil GDP
in the short run. However, long-run fluctuation of car fuel prices may lead to changes in
household income (Mikayilov et al., 2019). This will greatly influence the demand for fuel.

A study by (Ahmad & Mahfooz, 2018) show how Saudi Arabia has increased the number of
car fuel users by lifting the ban on women drivers. As part of a women empowerment
initiative in line with vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is projecting that there will be an increase of
about three million women drivers in 2023 ("Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving officially
ends," 2018). This will increase the demand for car fuel in the near future either directly or
indirectly. Additionally, lifting the ban will lead to an increase in car sales, and since cars and
fuel are complementary goods, a rise in car purchases leads to growth in consumption and
demand for fuel. Prices of commodities have a significant impact on their demand. Lower car
fuel prices mean that the demand for fuel prices will increase since consumers will have more
disposable income remaining, and it will prompt them to consume more fuel. On the other

hand, higher prices result in negative demand for car fuel, and increasing the fuel prices in the
long-run will prompt people to find other ways of transport such as public transport, and this
will cause fuel demand to decrease significantly.

A study by (Labandeira et al., 2016) aims at investigating population growth, changes in
income, economic growth, environmental effects, and car ownership effects on car fuel prices.
The rapid population growth and economic development in Saudi Arabia are strongly
associated with an increase in demand for transportation, particularly car transport. Riyadh, the
capital city of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has had rapid population growth, especially in the
late twentieth century. Rapid population growth is always accompanied by an increase in
economic activities and mobility. This has led to increased car ownership levels and car
transportation, consequently leading to the construction of various highways and expressways
across the city. This pattern of growth, both economic and demographic, is expected to prevail
in the future. Many factors influence the number of vehicles owned in Saudi Arabia, and rapid
population growth is among the major factors. Other factors include economic factors, policy
restrictions, public transport services, and economic growth. There are many studies that relate
car ownership, demographic, and economic factors, and they are especially applicable in
countries that are still developing. An increase in the population owning cars means that there
will be a significant increase in demand for fuel in Saudi Arabia.

5- Study Design/ Theoretical Orientation
The study scrutinizes the following null hypothesis:

Hypothesis 1: Population growth has led to increased consumption of car fuel in Saudi
Arabia.
Hypothesis 2: Economic growth and development have led to an increase in car ownership,
leading to increased demand for car fuel in Saudi Arabia.
Hypothesis 3: Encouraging the use of private cars over public means of transport has led to
increased consumption of car fuel.

6- Research Methods
6.1. Data
This research bases on the data for car fuel consumption, car fuel prices, size of the
population, and income in Saudi Arabia. The car fuel prices series are retrieved from data that
was issued in Saudi Arabia from 1980 to 2017 (Global economy). Population changes over
time and growth were retrieved from world bank data (World Bank, 2016), and SAMA Yearly
Statistics provided the information and data on real GDP and non-oil GDP, Saudi Arabia
(SAMA, 2016), while car fuel consumption data were obtained from the Saudi Ministry of
Energy (MEP, 2016). Women were included in calculating the total population because the
ban on women drivers has been lifted, therefore contributing to oil consumption.

6.2 The Model
The per capita car fuel demand in Saudi Arabia is a model of a function of population growth,
the car fuel price, real income per head, and other basic energy demand trends (Atalla et al.,
2018).

CFt = Bo + B1Yt + B2 PG + B3 Pt +B4 BEDTt
Where;
CFt is car fuel demand per head
PG is the population growth over time
Yt is the real car fuel price
Pt real income per head that is based on GDP or non-oil GDP per head
BEDTt is the basic energy demand trends.

6.3 Study Variables
Car fuel demand per head: This is the amount of car fuel that a single individual demand to
operate their cars and fuel consumption depending on the distance covered per kilometer and
the frequency of using cars.
Population growth over time: population growth is the increase in the size of and number of
people living in a country (Saudi Arabia) over a specified period of time. In this case, this the
increase in population in relation to how they will consume car fuel.
Real car fuel prices: this the price paid when an individual consumes car fuel within a specific
period of time.
Real income: this is the amount of income an individual makes after accounting for inflation.
It affects the purchasing power of Saudi Arabian citizens.
Basic energy demand trends: this is the important influences on energy demand in addition to
regular economic variables such as price and income.

7- Proposed dissemination- Timetable

Phase

Planned sequence of major tasks

Approximate period (week)

1

Topic statement

1

2

Date collected

2

3

Literature Review

3-4

4

Methods

5-12

5

Report

13-15

References
Ahmad, F., & Mahfooz, Y. (2018). End of ban on women driving in Saudi arabiaImplications for automobile brands. Archives of Business
Research, 6(12). https://doi.org/10.14738/abr.612.5841
Atalla, T. N., Gasim, A. A., & Hunt, L. C. (2018). Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and
social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis. Energy Policy, 114, 123133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.047
Dahl, C., & Sterner, T. (1991). Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: A survey. Energy
Economics, 13(3), 203-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(91)90021-q
Espey, M. (1998). Gasoline demand revisited: An international meta-analysis of
elasticities. Energy Economics, 20(3), 273-295. https://doi.org/10.1016/s01409883(97)00013-3
Global economy. (2017). Saudi Arabia gasoline consumption - data, chart |
TheGlobalEconomy.com.
TheGlobalEconomy.com. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/SaudiArabia/gasoline_consumption/
Labandeira, X., Labeaga Azcona, J. M., & LLpez-Otero, X. (2016). A meta-analysis on the
price elasticity of energy demand. SSRN Electronic
Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2768161
Mikayilov, J., Joutz, F., & Hasanov, F. (2019). Gasoline demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the
price and income elasticities constant? https://doi.org/10.30573/ks--2019-dp81

SAMA. (2016). Yearly Statistics: Annual Statistics. Saudi Arabia. National Accounts
Statistics: Main Aggregates and Detailed
Tables. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-55218-7_14
Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving officially ends. (2018, June 24). BBC
News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east44576795#:~:text=Saudi%20women%20are%20officially%20allowed,to%20women
%20earlier%20this%20month
World Bank. (2016). World Development Indicators 2016. Creative Commons Attribution.
Washington, DC: World Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648–0163-1

i have confirmed that all the links are acdessible

Master of Science
Applied Energy Economics
Research Methods and Report Writing
Research Proposal

Research Project Title
The Effect Of Population Growth On Car Fuel Demand In Saudi Arabia

Under Supervision of

1-Research title
The Effect of population Growth on Car Fuels Demand in Saudi Arabia

2- Topic Statement
Saudi Arabia's population consumes a significant amount of transportation energy, especially
on car fuels. The increase in car fuel demand and consumption is attributed to the increase in
population, which increases from 9.3 million in 1980 to about 31.5 million in 2015 (World
Bank, 2016). Fuel demand grew rapidly from around twenty-three tones to around two
hundred tones, making Saudi Arabia the world’s 10th largest user of car gasoline. Low fuel
prices have further led to higher car fuel usage, in addition to high population and economic
growth. According to Saudi Arabia's ministry of economy and planning, road transport is the
largest fuel energy consumer. The increased fuel consumption is linked to the increased in
income, which has enabled many households to own private vehicles, while at the same time,
economic growth and development has led to the development of good road infrastructure and
highway networks connecting various cities in Saudi, Arabia. The high demand for private
vehicles is to reinforce the current deficiency of public transport in the cities. Additionally, the
low fuel prices have escalated the demand for car fuel with a growth rate of about six percent
per annum.
There is an emerging technology where cars no longer have to run on gasoline. What will
happen if most vehicles are run on other forms of energy other than gasoline? Definitely, there
will be a transformation of fuel consumption on cars and trucks. Most of the car owners in

Saudi Arabia have not adopted this technology and are dependent on gasoline as their main
source of car fuel.

3- Research Questions
How did population growth affect the consumption of car fuels between 1980 and 2017 in
Saudi Arabia?
Does population growth affect the consumption of car fuel?
Do changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia?
What is the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth and
development, and car ownership on car fuel demand?

3-1 Research Objectives
To analyze the effects of population growth on the consumption of car fuel between 1980 to
2017 in Saudi Arabia.
To find the relationship between population growth and consumption of car fuel
To establish if changes in car fuel prices affect its demand and consumption in Saudi Arabia
To analyze the relationship between population growth, changes in income, economic growth
and development, and car ownership on car fuel prices.

4- Literature Review

Many studies have been undertaken to find out the correlation between population growth and
demand for car fuels for Saudi Arabia and other related countries.

A study by (Global economy, 2017) analyzes how population growth has been able to impact
car fuel demand for the period between 1980 and 2017. The studies established that thousands
of barrels of fuel are consumed per day, with an average of two hundred and seventy-four
thousand barrels consumed daily. 1980 had the minimum amount of car fuel consumption with
an average of 95.2 thousand barrels a day, and the highest quantity of fuel consumption was
recorded in 2017 where there was an average of five hundred and seventy thousand barrels of
car fuel consumed daily. The average world consumption of car fuel is about 138.56 barrels
per day as of 2017 (Global economy, 2017). This data shows that there is high car fuel
consumption in Saudi Arabia compared to many countries. Various research carried out
examining the relationship between fuel consumption and population growth show varied
results. Some results suggest that an increase in population may not lead to any changes in car
fuel consumption, but this is not the case in Saudi Arabia. The increased consumption of car
fuel over time is mainly due to increased population and demand for more private cars.

Study by Dahl and Sterner (Dahl & Sterner, 1991) established the effects elasticities on fuel
consumption during short and long-run. Studies conducted by Dahl proved that, on average,
the short-run price elasticity was -0.29 while the elasticity of long-run price was -1.02.In
addition, 0.47 was the short-run income elasticity, and 1.38 was the long-run income elasticity.
In addition, Dahl suggested that for static gasoline models, price elasticity was approximately 0.11 for middle income economies with low fuel prices and -0.33 for high fuel economies with

high fuel prices respectively (Dahl & Sterner, 1991). This research shows that the market for
car fuels is inelastic both during the short-run and during the long-run. Studies indicate that
car fuel price and income elasticities are vulnerable to inclusion or exclusion of car ownership
and car fuel demand price elasticity is more over time and income elastic. The above studies
suggest that car fuel demand is inelastic in price and income during both short and long-run,
which is evident in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's car fuel demand strongly prices inelastic.
This results are from the fact that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and real non-oil GDP
are used to measure Saudi Arabia's income when disposable income indicators cannot be
identified. Changes in car fuel prices have minimal impact on the real household income
leading to the fluctuation in real GDP and non-oil GDP in the short run. However, long-run
fluctuation of car fuel prices may lead to changes in household income (Mikayilov et al.,
2019). This will greatly influence the demand for fuel.

A study by (Ahmad & Mahfooz, 2018) show how Saudi Arabia has increased the number of
car fuel users by lifting the ban on women drivers. As part of a women empowerment
initiative in line with vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is projecting that there will be an increase of
about three million women drivers in 2023 ("Saudi Arabia's ban on women driving officially
ends," 2018). This will increase the demand for car fuel in the near future either directly or
indirectly. Additionally, lifting the ban will lead to an increase in car sales, and since cars and
fuel are complementary goods, a rise in car purchases leads to growth in consumption and
demand for fuel. Prices of commodities have a significant impact on their demand. Lower car
fuel prices mean that the demand for fuel prices will increase since consumers will have more
disposable income remaining, and it will prompt them to consume more fuel. On the other

hand, higher prices result in negative demand for car fuel, and increasing the fuel prices in the
long-run will prompt people to find other ways of transport such as public transport, and this
will cause fuel demand to decrease significantly.

A study by (Labandeira et al., 2016) aims at investigating population growth, changes in
income, economic growth, environmental effects, and car ownership effects on car fuel prices.
The rapid population growth and economic development in Saudi Arabia are strongly
associated with an increase in demand for transportation, particularly car transport. Riyadh, the
capital city of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has had rapid population growth, especially in the
late twentieth century. Rapid population growth is always accompanied by an increase in
economic activities and mobility. This has led to increased car ownership levels and car
transportation, consequently leading to the construction of various highways and expressways
across the city. This pattern of growth, both economic and demographic, is expected to prevail
in the future. Many factors influence the number of vehicles owned in Saudi Arabia, and rapid
population growth is among the major factors. Other factors include economic factors, policy
restrictions, public transport services, and economic growth. There are many studies that relate
car ownership, demographic, and economic factors, and they are especially applicable in
countries that are still developing. An increase in the population owning cars means that there
will be a significant increase in demand for fuel in Saudi Arabia.

5- Study Design/ Theoretical Orientation
The study scrutinizes the following null hypothesis:

Hypothesis 1: Population growth has led to increased consumption of car fuel in Saudi
Arabia.
Hypothesis 2: Economic growth and development have led to an increase in car ownership,
leading to increased demand for car fuel in Saudi Arabia.
Hypothesis 3: Encouraging the use of private cars over public means of transport has led to
increased consumption of car fuel.

6- Research Methods
6.1. Data
This research bases on the data for car fuel consumption, car fuel prices, size of the
population, and income in Saudi Arabia. The car fuel prices series are retrieved from data that
was issued in Saudi Arabia from 1980 to 2017 (Global economy). Population changes over
time and growth were retrieved from world bank data (World Bank, 2016), and SAMA Yearly
Statistics provided the information and data on real GDP and non-oil GDP, Saudi Arabia
(SAMA, 2016), while car fuel consumption data were obtained from the Saudi Ministry of
Energy (MEP, 2016). Women were included in calculating the total population because the
ban on women drivers has been lifted, therefore contributing to oil consumption.

6.2 The Model
The per capita car fuel demand in Saudi Arabia is a model of a function of population growth,
the car fuel price, real income per head, and other basic energy demand trends (Atalla et al.,
2018).

CFt = Bo + B1Yt + B2 PG + B3 Pt +B4 BEDTt
Where;
CFt is car fuel demand per head
PG is the population growth over time
Yt is the real car fue...