MTH 216T UOP Wk 5 Quantitative Reasoning Probability Utilized Daily Discussion

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Mathematics

MTH 216T

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MTH

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MTH/216T: Quantitative Reasoning Ii

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Wk 5 Discussion - Probability

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Respond to each student using 40-50 words

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MTH/216T: Quantitative Reasoning Ii Wk 5 Discussion - Probability Respond to each student using 40-50 words Post #1 Denny Thompson 2 hours ago, at 5:10 AM NEW Hello class, Based on my understanding of probability I think utilize it daily, sometimes without even realizing that I am. It can be a big influence on your daily decisions as simple as what to wear based on past experiences or life changing decisions such as making a major investment. A situation that I might consciously use my knowledge of probability to influence my decision could be deciding on taking my family to a theme park. For a theme park visit with my family, some things that I would think about before going is how far the drive (whether to make it a day or two days trip), what types of attractions are going to be available and are they suitable for kids, accessories that we might need to bring (umbrella, sunscreen, sunglasses Etc.), and what are the estimated wait times are going to be for the days that we plan on going. Keeping what probability means in mind, I would try to collect information such as special events that might be taking place on that day because wait times are more likely to be longer if there in going to be more guests at the park that day. I would also try to get the weather forecast as well because this could be the difference between a well spent day at the park or a day trying to find cover because it is raining. Using what I know about probability my decision to attend the park on any day would be if weather conditions are ideal on the day before and after the day am supposed to be there. Since there is seven days in a week if three days are ideal for a park visit, my odds for a good day at the park (in terms of weather conditions) would be 3/7 or a 42% chance. A possible benefit from using this approach is the possibility of maximizing my chances of attending the park when the weather condition is ideal. Limitation that might be associated with this approach might be relying too much on outside information such as the weather forecast. Post #2 Dan Nguyen 9 hours ago, at 11:01 PM NEW Good evening everyone, We know! The words such as probability, likelihood, chances get used in day-to-day language, but we are learning how to quantify that concept. The discussion is asking how we decide in the face of uncertainty. We have our way of coping with uncertainty in life, and we make decisions without being 100% sure of what might actually happen. Week 5 reading about quantifying this likelihood. That requires information. We need to think of what information we would collect to estimate the chances. The "limitation/benefit." of the week 5 method would deal with. Sure, so, we have this new method worth it? What do I gain, and what do I lose by using this method? The key idea is demonstrating how we are connecting new definitions-formulas-concepts with intuitive thinking. Referring to the answer to the question, an example of a situation where I understood probability might help me decide. The chance gets used to the day-to-day language, but we are learning a way to quantify that concept. The discussion is asking how we decide in the face of uncertainty. We have our way of coping with uncertainty in life; we make decisions without being 100% sure of what might actually happen. Week 5 reading about quantifying this likelihood. That requires information. We need to think of what information we would collect to estimate the chances.
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