Cloud County Community College Recommended Forecasting Method Report

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xvnurng33

Business Finance

Cloud County Community College

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All the highlighted parts need to be filled in on Module 29 worksheet. Module 28 has to be used to complete Module 29. It is complete and attached. Questions:

For SES solutions, use α = 0.1. For Holt solutions, use α = 0.95 and β = 0.01.

1. Recall the forecast produced for assignment 3 in Module 28 for the Northland special revenue fund. The original data are provided in Table 29.1. a. Using the same initial data and assumptions, refine the forecast using the exponential smoothing method appropriate for nontrending data. b. Produce a graph showing the original data, the 5-year moving average forecast from Module 28, and the forecast produced using the exponential method. c. Which forecast would you recommend using, and why? Graphs are on first page of excel and highlighted areas are on second page. The graph can be found on pg. 57:https://study.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/Modu...

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This page for graphs only. Other pages are self-checking Put solved data for Exercise 3 Here Special Year Revenue 0 53421417 1997 64600858 1998 67053747 1999 24316124.1 140000000 2000 66110642.3 120000000 2001 93389137 2002 49686022.5 100000000 2003 20706410.2 80000000 2004 81238032.4 60000000 2005 49055130.4 2006 124202747 40000000 2007 86126169.6 20000000 2008 27862519 2009 85704726.2 0 2010 81483729.6 0 2 2011 45459604.8 2012 22672731.8 2013 58226034 2014 2015 2016 Graph for Exercise 3 Chart Title Put Graph Exercise 3 Here 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 16 18 20 To show the cell checking, put a check here: x Grade Graph 3 Exercise 28.3: Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Exercise 28.4: Special Revenue 53421417 64600858 67053747 24316124.1 66110642.3 93389137 49686022.5 20706410.2 81238032.4 49055130.4 124202747 86126169.6 27862519 85704726.2 81483729.6 45459604.8 22672731.8 58226034 5yrMA Forecast based on 5YrMA Check 55100557.67 63094101.67 60111134.57 50841667.21 62226048.87 58814946.5 64977668.46 72265697.88 73696919.64 74590258.39 81075978.23 65327349.83 52636662.27 58709365.27 55100557.67 63094101.67 60111134.57 50841667.21 62226048.87 58814946.5 64977668.46 72265697.88 73696919.64 74590258.39 81075978.23 65327349.83 52636662.27 58709365.27 58709365.27 58709365.27 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TO: The Budget Director of Northland FROM: Andrea Hoeflinger DATE: March 24, 2021 SUBJECT: Recommendation Good Evening, The five year is much slower than the three year moving average. The forecast is similar between 2014 and According to the graph, they have never been stable. To stop the stagnation, I recommend rewarding motiva employees and investing in talent employees. Also, performing an analysis would be helpful to find any othe that need to be addressed. Percent Correct milar between 2014 and 2015. ommend rewarding motivated be helpful to find any other issues 100% Grade Text Answer This page for graphs only. Other pages are self-checking Put solved data for Exercise 1 Here Total State and Local Per Capita Taxes Paid Year ESForecast 5 yr MA 1996 53,421,417 1997 64,600,858 1998 67,053,747 1999 24,316,124 2000 66,110,642 2001 93,389,137 2002 49,686,023 2003 20,706,410 2004 81,238,032 2005 49,055,130 2006 124,202,747 2007 86,126,170 2008 27,862,519 2009 85,704,726 2010 81,483,730 2011 45,459,605 2012 22,672,732 2013 58,226,034 2014 2015 2016 Graph 1 for Exercise 1 Put Graph 1 Exercise 1 Here Graph 2 for Exercise 1 Put Graph 2 Exercise 1 Here h 1 for Exercise 1 ph 1 Exercise 1 Here h 2 for Exercise 1 ph 2 Exercise 1 Here To show the cell checking, put a check here: Special Revenue Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 α x Error Error SQ Mean RMSE 5 yr MA Revenue ESForecast 53,421,417 64,600,858 67,053,747 24,316,124 66,110,642 93,389,137 49,686,023 20,706,410 81,238,032 49,055,130 124,202,747 86,126,170 27,862,519 85,704,726 81,483,730 45,459,605 22,672,732 58,226,034 Put text answer here Check Grade Grade Graph 1 Grade Graph 2 Error Percent Correct Error SQ Grade Text Answer rrect 0%
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Explanation & Answer

Attached. Please let me know if you have any questions or need revisions.

Revenue

140000000
120000000
100000000
80000000
60000000
40000000
20000000
0
1 2 3

90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000

Revenue

This page for graphs only. Other pages are self-checking
Put solved data for Exercise 1 Here
Total State
and Local Per
Capita Taxes
Paid
Year
ESForecast
5 yr MA
1996
53,421,417
#N/A
1997
64,600,858
53,421,417
1998
67,053,747
54539361.1
1999
24,316,124
55790799.69
2000
66,110,642
52643332.13
55,100,558
2001
93,389,137
53990063.14
63,094,102
2002
49,686,023
57929970.53
60,111,135
2003
20,706,410
57105575.73
50,841,667
2004
81,238,032
53465659.17
62,226,049
2005
49,055,130
56242896.5
58,814,947
2006 124,202,747
55524119.89
64,977,668
2007
86,126,170
62391982.58
72,265,698
2008
27,862,519
64765401....

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