The Dinghy Race. Alan is a member of dinghy sailing team. The Probability of strong winds tomorrow is 0.5. In strong winds, the probability of Alans team winning is 0.55. In light winds, the probability of Alans team winning falls to 0.3 Calculate the Probability that Alans team loses tomorrow P(Team Loses) = ? and Given that Alans team wins, find the Probability that the winds were strong. Probability = ?

P (win) = .55(.5) + .25(.5)
= .275 + .125
= .40 or 40% Alan wins tomorrow

Given a win, P (wind_weak) = .125/.40
= .3125 or approximately 31.25%
This is called "posterior probability."

Oct 17th, 2013

If it's strong winds, then chances of a win is 0.5 x 0.55 = 0.275

If it's not strong winds, then the chances of a win is either in normal winds, or weak winds. So 0.5 x 0.25 = 0.125 and 0.5 x 0.2 = 0.1 Added togethere that's 0.225 Added all together is 0.5

Chances of Alans team winning tomorrow is 0.5 Chances of Alans team winning if it's weak winds is in the question for you. - "In weak winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.25"

Alan is a member of a sailing team The probability of strong winds tommorow is 0.5 In strong winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.55 In weak winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.25 Calculate the probabilty that Alans team wins tommorow? Given that Alans team wins, what is the probabilty that the winds are weak?