Conditional Probability

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The Dinghy Race. Alan is a member of dinghy sailing team. The Probability of strong winds tomorrow is 0.5. In strong winds, the probability of Alans team winning is 0.55. In light winds, the probability of Alans team winning falls to 0.3 Calculate the Probability that Alans team loses tomorrow P(Team Loses) = ? and Given that Alans team wins, find the Probability that the winds were strong. Probability = ?

Oct 17th, 2013
P (win) = .55(.5) + .25(.5)
= .275 + .125
= .40 or 40% Alan wins tomorrow

Given a win, P (wind_weak) = .125/.40
= .3125 or approximately 31.25%
This is called "posterior probability."
Oct 17th, 2013

If it's strong winds, then chances of a win is 0.5 x 0.55 = 0.275 

If it's not strong winds, then the chances of a win is either in normal winds, or weak winds. 
So 0.5 x 0.25 = 0.125 
and 0.5 x 0.2 = 0.1 
Added togethere that's 0.225 
Added all together is 0.5 

Chances of Alans team winning tomorrow is 0.5 
Chances of Alans team winning if it's weak winds is in the question for you. 
- "In weak winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.25" 

Thus it is 0.25,

Oct 17th, 2013


where you get .25 please explain

Oct 17th, 2013


can you explain with tree diagram please

Oct 17th, 2013

In weak winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.25 

given in question............

Oct 17th, 2013


no that is 0.55

Oct 17th, 2013

Alan is a member of a sailing team 
The probability of strong winds tommorow is 0.5 
In strong winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.55 
In weak winds the probability of Alans team winning is 0.25 
Calculate the probabilty that Alans team wins tommorow? 
Given that Alans team wins, what is the probabilty that the winds are weak?

Oct 17th, 2013


sorry I cant get where you get .25

Oct 17th, 2013

sir i have solved it a few days before and the question is this one.

                      thanks

Oct 17th, 2013

its ok

Oct 17th, 2013


it should be .45 not .25 sorry in cant understand how can you say .25 please explain

Oct 17th, 2013


no sir that answer is wrong

 

Oct 17th, 2013

ok as you wish 

Oct 17th, 2013

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