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TABLE covidstats ( CovidStatID int NOT NULL, TotalCases int NOT NULL,
TotalDeaths int NOT NULL, PercentVacc int NOT NULL, CountryID int NOT
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/; CREATE TABLE impactbycontinent ( ContinentID int NOT NULL,
ContinentName varchar(50) NOT NULL, GDPContLossP double NOT
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impactbycountry
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NegativeImpactC19 varchar(25) NOT NULL, CountryGDPLossP double
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for table impactidentifier
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CREATE TABLE impactidentifier ( ImpactIdentifierID int NOT 2
NULL, SystemImpacted varchar(100) NOT NULL, ImpactDesc varchar(100)
NOT NULL, ContinentID int NOT NULL, ContinentName varchar(50)
NOT NULL, CountryID int NOT NULL, CountryName varchar(50) NOT
NULL, PRIMARY KEY (ImpactIdentifierID), KEY CountryID (CountryID),
KEY ContinentID (ContinentID), CONSTRAINT impactidentifier_ibfk_1
FOREIGN KEY (CountryID) REFERENCES impactbycountry (CountryID),
CONSTRAINT impactidentifier_ibfk_2 FOREIGN KEY (ContinentID)
REFERENCES impactbycontinent (ContinentID) ) ENGINE=InnoDB
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Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic in Global Economy: Analytic Horsepower
Uchechukwu Ohiri
TIM-7020 V5: Databases and Business Intelligence
North Central University (NCU)
Chris Schweigert, DSC
May 2, 2021
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Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic in Global Economy: Analytic Horsepower
Problem Statement
No matter what country, Continent, or City, everyone went through the same
situation and hardships for the past year and a half; Covid-19 has made almost every aspect
of life different. Not only the daily routines and habits of people have changed but also the
global scenery has been modified to accommodate bio-security measures, social distancing,
facemasks, and even countrywide lockdowns. All these new measures have greatly affected
the global economy, forcing thousands of companies to reduce their labor force and even
close operations in some cases.
The Global Economy took a great hit in 2020 as soon as the pandemic was
announced and several countries started announcing lockdowns, borders were closed, and
all imports and exports being suspended for some of the most affected countries. The
following research is being done, to understand a bit more how a virus can affect people,
cities, states, countries, and a continent and to recommend a data design to study the
impact. There is a wide agreement amongst economists that this pandemic will have severe
negative effects on 80% of all countries, thus resulting in a global economic decrease that
will cause yet another recession (Jones et al., 2021). Early estimates in 2020 predicted that
the virus becoming a global pandemic, most major economies would lose at least 2.9
percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) income over 2020 (Jones et al., 2021). This
forecast was restated and even corrected to a point where most of the major economies took
a 4.5 percent loss in their GDPs, which is a much bigger impact than expected, resulting in
a 3.9 trillion-dollar impact on the Global Economy (Jones et al., 2021).
This general data helps to see how badly the pandemic has affected the global
economy. In some cases, large economies have reported 5.2 percent of GDP contraction,
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which only calls for more questions in regard to the outlook for 2021 and 2022 once the
pandemic has been controlled and the measures to contain the virus have been loosened a
bit (Jones et al., 2021). Staying optimistic, 2021 might be the year where vaccines could
lead the world economy into recovery.
There are many aspects to how a pandemic may affect the Global Economy, starting
with the local community and the people in it. However, a pandemic affects every single
area, going from GDPs from Imports and Exports to Stock markets, realty, price of
commodities like Oil, Gold, Silver, and more.
Figure 1 below shows a simple chart of how the stock markets around the world
have recovered as of January of 2021 after a year of pandemic.
Figure 1 Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market since Its Inception (Szmigiera, 2021).
The above chart gives you a small look into the stock market. However, other
markets must be taken into consideration as well as areas that affect the global economy.
Hence the reason for a good data design could be extremely useful for companies and
governments.
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Statement of Significance
Due to the pandemic that is still unpredictable, many institutions require statistics to
help them plan for their current and future operations that will be of positive value edition
to them and enable them to survive during this pandemic (Hoseinpour et al., 2021). This
database and research will also be extremely beneficial to any individual, company, or
government that needs broad or even specific financial data on how the Coronavirus has
affected a country’s GDP (Hoseinpour et al., 2021). This will allow for a more conscious
decision on how people spend their income, take care of their finances, health, and the
health of their loved ones.
The data portrays the most affected areas and industries such as the stock market
and will help the responsible institutions especially the medical institutions in controlling
the spread of the infection to the other least infected areas in the entire globe (Hoseinpour et
al., 2021). The control will in turn result in revamping the GDP of different countries. It
will also help in proper budgeting and putting in place the proper rules and regulations that
are geared towards protecting the livelihoods of the citizens as far as the vulnerable
population is concerned.
The solution to this problem is also significant for proper recovery of the economy
based on the affected areas and individuals since resources will be properly allocated by the
governments and government institutions based on the statistics provided by the database
which will eliminate biases in resource allocation and turn it will lead to the provision of
the proper and effective working environment of the individual in different countries as
they will be able to access allocated resources.
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The data will be of much help in the future in case the world faces another
pandemic. The track records will help in predictions of possible outcomes and possible
ways of handling the pandemic including ways to maintain the goods and services
produced within the geographic boundaries. The database can be modified or even
expanded to the point of having specific data for specific countries so that it is easier to
make decisions based on how the country has performed for different periods before,
during, or after the pandemic.
Database Design Process
There are three major phases of designing a conceptual database that involves the
construction of a database without all physical considerations, a logical phase where the
construction of database is independent of a particular database and physical
considerations, and finally, the physical database which involves the implementation of the
database on secondary storage as it describes all the constraints and security measures.
In the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic in Global Economy database design process,
the creator of the database started with defining problem constraints along with the
objectives. Also, the scope and boundaries of the database were calculated. This formed the
initial study of the database which was the first phase. At this point of the study, concerning
the problem statement above, the outstanding constraint is the pandemic, which could not
be solved but could be used in tracking and gathering statistics since it is also a problem
that is being experienced by different stakeholder fighting the pandemic and the general
productivity of different geographical boundaries and can be easily solved.
The main objective just as depicted in the problem statement above is to be able to
track how the pandemic has affected the global economy at large which will in return play a
big role when it comes to decision making in sustaining and recovering the economy. By
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calculating the scope of the entire database development, the time and resources, and
information needed to come up with the database and the overall scope of work that is to be
covered for the database to be up and running was highlighted.
In the next phase, the database creator made the entire structure of the database.
Here the database creator identified what the tables will be and how data will flow from one
table to another and how the information will be retrieved from the tables. This is the phase
that the database creator came up with Data flow diagrams and Entity Relational diagrams
that gave the blueprint of the entire database design. The database creator will display the
diagrams later in this analysis. From the first phase of the study, the database creator was
able to identify several factors that will help in coming up with the database. The first
factor is that the pandemic has not only affected one region but the entire world and
therefore will need to have entries for different regions in the database. In this case, the
creator of the database defined regions in form of continents which narrows down to
countries that have been affected. This can however continue to narrow down into regions
within the countries in the future for it to be more detailed and provide the most reliable
data and statistics that can be used within the specified geographical regions.
The second major factor was that pandemic has impacted different institutions,
entities, and dockets that contribute to their GDP in different ways. For this reason, the
database should have an entity that can record the type of impact that has affected a
particular country and which sector to be specific. An example of the major sectors affected
by the pandemic is the Travel and Leisure industry. In this table, there should be several
entries that will describe the impact and the sector which has been affected by the recorded
impact.
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The third factor that was of much consideration for the development of the database
is that there were cases of infection in various countries within different continents. These
cases were as a result of tests carried out by different health organizations in respective
countries. Moreover, there were cases of death that were also reported within an interval of
24hrs in every country. The cases were mainly aired on broadcasting channels and different
online platforms that updated the results and tally every 24hrs. For this reason, there has to
be an entity that records the data of infection and death cases of different countries. Having
such data is essential because it will help in tracking the most infected regions and regions
with fewer or no infections.
Last but not least there are also some of the measures and restrictions that have been
put in place to try and solve various factors affecting the industry that will in turn lead to
the containment of the pandemic. Some of the measures put in place by different countries
include lockdowns, cessation, takeaway foods in restaurants, burn-in public gatherings,
Social distancing, wearing of masks, and closure of schools among many others. Besides,
there are online platforms that have been put up to facilitate online learning and meetings in
the industry. There are also some of the guidelines that have been put in place in case
someone is diagnosed with covid-19. Some of these guidelines are self-quarantined and
taking of vitamin C and concoctions which is unfavorable to the survival of the virus. Due
to such a finding, the database needs to have an entity that records the solutions to the
impact, which have been put in place or have been suggested. This way, the statistics
recorded will be of more benefit in the future since there is a record of some of the
solutions that were implemented.
The third phase was the implementation of the design of the database as per the
second phase. In this phase is where the database creator created the tables and the entries
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in the MySQL workbench database thus the implementation of the design into an actual
running database. It involved writing MySQL scripts and running them to make sure that
they are functional and that there are no errors, and the functionality meets the problem that
is being solved as per the problem statement above.
The other phase is maintenance and evolution which is a phase that comes last and
involves making sure that the database runs as it is supposed to be. This is a phase that also
involves updates that may take place in the future due to evolution in the industry. This is a
phase that comes after the whole database has been developed and is being used. In this
case, the database is yet to be used, but the good thing is that the database is subjected to
improvements and updates based on the future new findings that may come in place and
require adjustments to the database.
Factors for Referential Integrity
Integrity simply means that data is protected from unauthorized changes and makes sure
that it is reliable and genuine thus it has not been compromised (Blaha, 2005). Data
integrity must be maintained at any point of database development. The two major
integrities in this database are entity and referential integrity. For entity integrity, it was
ensured that each row in the tables has a unique and non-null primary key value. To
maintain the referential integrity in the database, the factor of having parent and child tables
with foreign keys is very essential. For this database, the creator introduced foreign keys
which have a matching primary key which is a constraint that was specified between the
parent and child tables. Having this in the database maintains the correspondence between
rows in the two tables. This reference has been portrayed in figure 2.
By having the foreign key factor, deletion and addition of new entries from the
primary and secondary tables have to be checked every time, to identify the matching
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entries to each of the rows in the primary and foreign key columns which ensures
referential Integrity. For instance, in this database, the entry “CountryID” in the table
“stockmarketimpact” is a foreign key that points to the entry “CountryID” which is a
primary key in the table “impactbycountry.” This has been displayed clearly on the ERD
diagram in this document.
Future Research
This database can be used in identifying and tracking other diseases such as HIV,
Tuberculosis, and Malaria in the world upon the addition of more tables in the database.
This means that the system will have options on getting statistics of a different kind of
affecting people in the entire world. With such data and statistics organizations such as
WHO will be able to keep track and easily manage the cases of common diseases around
the world. Some outbreaks often occur in different regions within the world. E.g., there
might be an outbreak of malaria in South America, If the data is captured in the database,
the responsible organizations can raise alarm concerning the same and therefore caution
people on visiting the regions. This database can also be integrated into their system which
will help them in decision making.
The database can also have the addition of an entity that captures medical facilities
and institutions in different regions with their specialties. This will help people in
identifying places where the specific disease is being treated well regardless of the location
the people might be within the world. In addition to this, there could be also an entity that
has recorded common diseases with their symptoms and possible treatment. This
information should be approved by different licensed specialists which will be of much
help to the users of the database at large in gaining knowledge on common diseases.
besides, there should also be a table that has advice to the people on how to avoid
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contracting certain diseases through the practices approved by the specialists. When all this
is integrated into one system, the system will be of more benefit to all its users including
the local citizens of different countries.
Currently, there is a problem of drug shortage and also equipment shortage in
different health facilities in the entire globe as they fight the pandemic. This might be as a
result of poor allocation of drugs, poor preparations put in place to fight and contain the
infection in different regions, and also the allocation of medicine inappropriately where you
might find that a particular region has plenty of anti-malarial drugs while there is a shortage
in ARVs This is not applicable in the current problem facing the industry but also it is a
problem that has been existing when it comes to other diseases. Having such a database in
our systems with additional tables to track drug distribution and common diseases affecting
different communities in specific regions in the entire world, will help in the distribution of
different medications in a justified manner.
Many diseases affect humanity in many ways and the effect on humans differs from
age to age. A good example is the current Covid-19 that has the aged and people with
underlying problems being more vulnerable to the disease as compared to the other
population age brackets and individuals with no underlying issues (Havrlantet al., 2021).
To identify the most vulnerable population in the world and be in a position to offer proper
solutions to save and sustain humanity. The database can also have additional tables to
record individuals who are vulnerable to different disease that has been recorded in the
database. Currently, there are no data that portray the vulnerable population and individuals
to different diseases in the whole world. This is a challenge to the entire globe since many
deaths are experienced in the world as a result of different health problems which is not
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tracked and have no statistics that might be of help in finding solutions to protect
livelihoods.
Assumption in the database
The major assumption is that the database records will lead to solution of all the
impacts in the entire database.
.Figure 2 Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD)
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References
Baek, S., Mohanty, S. K., & Glambosky, M. (2020). COVID-19 and stock market
volatility: An industry level analysis. Finance Research Letters, 37, 101748.
Blaha, M. (2005). Referential integrity is important for databases. Modelsoft Consulting
Corp.
Havrlant, D., Darandary, A., & Muhsen, A. (2021). Early estimates of the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic on GDP: a case study of Saudi Arabia. Applied
Economics, 53(12), 1317-1325.
Hoseinpour D, A., Alizadeh, M., Derakhshan, P., Babazadeh, P., & Jahandideh, A.
(2020). Understanding epidemic data and statistics: A case study of COVID‐
19. Journal of medical virology, 92(7), 868-882.
Jones, L., Palumbo, D., & Brown, D. (2021, January 24). Coronavirus: How the pandemic
has changed the world economy. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/business51706225
Szmigiera, M. (2021, April 16). Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy
- Statistics & Facts. Statista. https://www.statista.com/topics/6139/covid-19-impacton-the-globaleconomy/#:%7E:text=This%20forecast%20was%20already%20restated,dollars%20
in%20lost%20economic%20output
UNDP. (2021). Socio-economic impact of COVID-19.
https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/coronavirus/socio-economic-impactof-covid-19.html
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