I need help with the Excel formula/calculation, the spreadsheet is attached

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timer Asked: Mar 26th, 2017
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Question Description

This assignment has two cases. The first case is on expansion strategy. Managers constantly have to make decisions under uncertainty. This assignment gives students an opportunity to use the mean and standard deviation of probability distributions to make a decision on expansion strategy. The second case is on determining at which point a manager should re-order a printer so he or she doesn't run out-of-stock. The second case uses normal distribution. The first case demonstrates application of statistics in finance and the second case demonstrates application of statistics in operations management.

Write a 1,050-word report based on the Bell Computer Company Forecasts data set and Case Study Scenarios.

Include answers to the following:

Case 1: Bell Computer Company

  • Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit?
  • Compute the variation for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty?

Case 2: Kyle Bits and Bytes

  • What should be the re-order point? How many HP laser printers should he have in stock when he re-orders from the manufacturer?
  • Write in APA format


Unformatted Attachment Preview

Individual Assignment: Expansion Strategy and Establishing a Re-order Point Purpose of Assignment This assignment has two cases. The first case is on expansion strategy. Managers constantly have to make decisions under uncertainty. This assignment gives students an opportunity to use the mean and standard deviation of probability distributions to make a decision on expansion strategy. The second case is on determining at which point a manager should re-order a printer so he or she doesn’t run out-of-stock. The second case uses normal distribution. The first case demonstrates application of statistics in finance and the second case demonstrates application of statistics in operations management. Resources Required • • • Microsoft Excel® Bell Computer Company Forecasts data set Case Study Scenarios Grading Guide Content Met Partially Met Not Met 3 #/3 Partially Met Not Met Comments: Write a 1,050-word report based on the Bell Computer Company Forecasts data set and Case Study Scenarios. Case 1: Bell Computer Company • Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit? Compute the variation for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty? Case 2: Kyle Bits and Bytes • What should be the re-order point? How many HP laser printers should he have in stock when he re-orders from the manufacturer? Writing Guidelines The paper—including tables and graphs, Met Comments: Expansion Strategy and Establishing a Re-order Point Grading Guide QNT/561 Version 9 Writing Guidelines Met Partially Met Not Met Total Available Total Earned 2 #/2 5 #/5 headings, title page, and reference page—is consistent with APA formatting guidelines and meets course-level requirements. Intellectual property is recognized with in-text citations and a reference page. Paragraph and sentence transitions are present, logical, and maintain the flow throughout the paper. Sentences are complete, clear, and concise. Rules of grammar and usage are followed including spelling and punctuation. Assignment Total Additional comments: # Comments: 2 1 Case Study – Bell Computer Company The Bell Computer Company is considering a plant expansion enabling the company to begin production of a new computer product. You have obtained your MBA from the University of Phoenix and, as a vicepresident, you must determine whether to make the expansion a medium- or large- scale project. The demand for the new product involves an uncertainty, which for planning purposes may be low demand, medium demand, or high demand. The probability estimates for the demands are 0.20, 0.50, and 0.30, respectively. Case Study – Kyle Bits and Bytes Kyle Bits and Bytes, a retailer of computing products sells a variety of computer-related products. One of Kyle’s most popular products is an HP laser printer. The average weekly demand is 200 units. Lead time (lead time is defined as the amount of time between when the order is placed and when it is delivered) for a new order from the manufacturer to arrive is one week. If the demand for printers were constant, the retailer would re-order when there were exactly 200 printers in inventory. However, Kyle learned demand is a random variable in his Operations Management class. An analysis of previous weeks reveals the weekly demand standard deviation is 30. Kyle knows if a customer wants to buy an HP laser printer but he has none available, he will lose that sale, plus possibly additional sales. He wants the probability of running short (stock-out) in any week to be no more than 6%. Copyright © 2017 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. Low Demand Medium High Medium-Scale Large-Scale Expansion Profits Expansion Profits Annual Annual Profit Profit ($1000s) ($1000s) P(x) P(x) 50 20% 0 20% 150 50% 100 50% 200 30% 300 30% Expected Profit ($1000s) Risk Analysis for Medium-Scale Expansion Annual Profit (x) Probability P(x) (x - µ)2 (x - µ)2 * P(x) Demand $1000s (x - µ) Low 50 20% Medium 150 50% High 200 30% σ2 = σ= Risk Analysis for Large-Scale Expansion Annual Profit (x) Probability P(x) (x - µ)2 (x - µ)2 * P(x) Demand $1000s (x - µ) Low 0 20% Medium 100 50% High 300 30% σ2 = σ= ...
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Tutor Answer

Tutor_Booth
School: Duke University

kindly let me know if you have any question, thank you:)

Low
Demand Medium
High
Expected Profit ($1000s)

Medium-Scale
Large-Scale
Expansion Profits
Expansion Profits
Annual
Annual
Profit
Profit
($1000s)
($1000s)
P(x)
P(x)
50
20%
0
20%
150
50%
100
50%
200
30%
300
30%
145

140

Risk Analysis for Medium-Scale Expansion
Annual Profit
(x)
Probability
P(x)
(x - µ)2 (x - µ)2 * P(x)
Demand $1000s
(x - µ)
Low
50
20%
-95
9025
1805
Medium
150
50%
5
25
12,5
High
200
30%
55
3025
907,5
2
σ =
2725
σ = 52,20153254
Risk Analysis for Large-Scale Expansion
Annual Profit
(x)
Probability
P(x)
(x - µ)2 (x - µ)2 * P(x)
Demand $1000s
(x - µ)
Low
0
20%
-140
19600
3920
Medium
100
50%
-40
1600
800
High
300
30%
160
25600
7680
2
σ =
12400
σ = 111,3552873


Running head: DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Decision making under uncertainty
Name
Institution
Date

DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Decision-making process entails identification of opportunities and risks and selecting the
best choice of action among all alternatives. Managers can make decisions under conditions of
certainty, conditions of risk and/or conditions of uncertainty. Under certainty, the managers have
adequate information and they know exactly how the outcomes will be. The manager has clarity
of the situation, knows the resources he needs, and the time within which the outcomes will
occur. Moreover, the best alternative and solution to the problem may be readily available due to
previous experience. Under conditions of risk, the decision maker is provided with likelihoods of
events and expected outco...

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Anonymous
awesome work thanks

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