# Forecasting Time series analysis

Anonymous
account_balance_wallet \$9.99

### Question Description

Question 25, 33,37

### Unformatted Attachment Preview

17) Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best? YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 21) Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years: ---------------------------------YEAR SALES ---------------------------------1 450 2 495 3 518 4 563 5 584 6 ? The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that years 1’s sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. 25) Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model for the sales of CoolMan air conditioners (see Problem 21) 33) A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sale tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four years of quarterly data (in \$millions) for one particular area of southeast Texas follow: QUARTER 1 2 3 4 a) b) c) d) YEAR 1 218 247 243 292 YEAR 2 225 254 255 299 YEAR 3 234 265 264 327 YEAR 4 250 283 289 356 Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA. Deseasonalize the data and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized data. Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5. Use the seasonal indices to adjust the forecasts found in part (c) to obtain the final forecasts. 37) Management of Davis’s Department Store has used time-series extrapolation to forecast retail sales for the next four quarters. The sales estimates are \$100,000, \$120,000, \$140,000 and \$160,000 for the respective quarters before adjusting for seasonality. Seasonal indices for the four quarters have been found to be 1.30, 0.90, 0.70 and 1.10, respectively. Compute a seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast. ...
Purchase answer to see full attachment

winniecarols
School: Rice University

hi excellent The paper is ready. Thank you

3-year moving average to forecast sales
DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS)

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Forecast

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
8,5455

Error

4,6667
5,0000
6,3333
7,6667
8,3333
8,0000
9,3333
11,6667
13,6667

0,3333
5,0000
1,6667
-0,6667
0,6667
4,0000
4,6667
3,3333

Forecast Sales for Year 12 will be (13.6667*1000) 13,667 bags of fertilizers
3 period weighted moving average
DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS)

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
Year 12 forecasted value

Weights

Forecast
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2

4,5
5
7
7,75
8
8,25
10
12,25
14

The weighted moving average is more accurate than three moving averag...

flag Report DMCA
Review

Anonymous
Tutor went the extra mile to help me with this essay. Citations were a bit shaky but I appreciated how well he handled APA styles and how ok he was to change them even though I didnt specify. Got a B+ which is believable and acceptable.

Brown University

1271 Tutors

California Institute of Technology

2131 Tutors

Carnegie Mellon University

982 Tutors

Columbia University

1256 Tutors

Dartmouth University

2113 Tutors

Emory University

2279 Tutors

Harvard University

599 Tutors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2319 Tutors

New York University

1645 Tutors

Notre Dam University

1911 Tutors

Oklahoma University

2122 Tutors

Pennsylvania State University

932 Tutors

Princeton University

1211 Tutors

Stanford University

983 Tutors

University of California

1282 Tutors

Oxford University

123 Tutors

Yale University

2325 Tutors