Forecasting Time series analysis

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Question 25, 33,37

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17) Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best? YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 21) Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years: ---------------------------------YEAR SALES ---------------------------------1 450 2 495 3 518 4 563 5 584 6 ? The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that years 1’s sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. 25) Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model for the sales of CoolMan air conditioners (see Problem 21) 33) A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sale tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four years of quarterly data (in $millions) for one particular area of southeast Texas follow: QUARTER 1 2 3 4 a) b) c) d) YEAR 1 218 247 243 292 YEAR 2 225 254 255 299 YEAR 3 234 265 264 327 YEAR 4 250 283 289 356 Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA. Deseasonalize the data and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized data. Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5. Use the seasonal indices to adjust the forecasts found in part (c) to obtain the final forecasts. 37) Management of Davis’s Department Store has used time-series extrapolation to forecast retail sales for the next four quarters. The sales estimates are $100,000, $120,000, $140,000 and $160,000 for the respective quarters before adjusting for seasonality. Seasonal indices for the four quarters have been found to be 1.30, 0.90, 0.70 and 1.10, respectively. Compute a seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast. ...
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Tutor Answer

winniecarols
School: Rice University

hi excellent The paper is ready. Thank you

3-year moving average to forecast sales
DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS)

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Forecast

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
8,5455

Error

4,6667
5,0000
6,3333
7,6667
8,3333
8,0000
9,3333
11,6667
13,6667

0,3333
5,0000
1,6667
-0,6667
0,6667
4,0000
4,6667
3,3333

Forecast Sales for Year 12 will be (13.6667*1000) 13,667 bags of fertilizers
3 period weighted moving average
DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000s OF BAGS)

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
Year 12 forecasted value

Weights

Forecast
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2

4,5
5
7
7,75
8
8,25
10
12,25
14

The weighted moving average is more accurate than three moving averag...

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