Operations Forecasting, management homework help

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qfgnex5

Business Finance

Description

Purpose of Assignment

The purpose of this assignment is for students to learn how to apply Operations Forecasting.

Assignment Steps

Resources: Microsoft® Excel®

Select a business operations dataset from the internet or other sources which can be used for forecasting in the University Library.

Develop a minimum of three quantitative forecasts using Microsoft® Excel®.

  • Compare and contrast each quantitative forecast you develop.
  • Choose the one forecast you determine would be the best for the firm and be prepared to explain why you chose this.
  • Evaluate the impact this forecast would have on the firm from a financial metrics standpoint.

Develop a 700-word report in which you describe your forecasting project including details on all the assignment steps.

Format your assignment consistent with APA guidelines.

Click the Assignment Files tab to submit your assignment.

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Explanation & Answer

Hi Dstark, kindly go through the attached files and let me know if you've got any queries

Running Head: Forecasting Project Report

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Forecasting Project Report
Student’s Name:
Institution:

Forecasting Project Report

Moving Average


This forecasting method uses a formula to average the specified number of periods in
a dataset to project the next time in the dataset. Using the formula

At = (xt + xt–1 + … + xt–n+1) / n


This method averages the results of recent product history to determine a projection
for the short term.



It works best in forecasting for mature products in the short term.

Regression


Regression is a statistical method used in forecasting that sets out to determine a
relationship between a dependent variable with other variables in a data set.



Regression takes a group of random variables thought to be predicting Y and tries to
find a mathematical relationship between them. When there is a linear trend in a data
set, we can use this method to forecast demand and requires at least two historical
data points



This method applies to predict demand when a linear trend is in the data and requires
at least two historical data points

Exponential Smoothing


This a forecasting technique that compares your prior forecast with your previous
actual and then applies the difference between the two to the next forecast

S t = αx t + (1 - α )S t - 1


Exponential smoothing is adaptive as it weighs recent observations more than older
ones and relies on past predictions and the actual data to make the next forecast.

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Forecasting Project Report



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This method is useful to predict demand when no linear trend is exhibited in the data
and also requires at least two historical data points.



Conclusion



Exponential smoothing and moving average make projections from past data
assuming the future will look like the past hence are used widely for routine shortterm forecasting.




However, the exponential smoothing procedure is sophisticated enough to permit
representations of a linear trend and a cyclical factor in its calculations.

Regression forecasting method would best meet the needs of the firm.
➢ New insights: When using regression, we can uncover new patterns and
relationships that the company had not previously considered
➢ Accuracy of Results: Regression analysis allows the establishment of
objective measures of the ...


Anonymous
Excellent resource! Really helped me get the gist of things.

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