Page 95
Chapter Five
Timing of Entry
UberAIR
In April 2017, Jeff Holden, the chief product officer at Uber Technologies Inc. announced a radically new
product called UberAir, an on-demand air transportation service:
On-demand aviation, has the potential to radically improve urban mobility, giving people back time
lost in their daily commutes. . . . Just as skyscrapers allowed cities to use limited land more
efficiently, urban air transportation will use three-dimensional airspace to alleviate transportation
congestion on the ground. A network of small, electric aircraft that take off and land vertically
(called Vertical Take-off and Landing, or VTOL, and pronounced vee-tol), will enable rapid, reliable
transportation between suburbs and cities and, ultimately, within cities, a
Uber's on-demand ride-sharing service had seriously disrupted traditional taxi and livery, and induced many
people to eschew car ownership altogether. However, that service was based on an innovative business
model and a software application-it did not require technological advances in either automobiles or driving
infrastructure. UberAIR was almost the opposite: it would leverage Uber's existing business model and
software programs, but would require major technological development in air transportation technology,
infrastructure for air traffic control, and a network of landing pads. It was an ambitious project, to put it
mildly.
Uber's Rise
Uber was founded in 2009 as a taxi-like ride-sharing service. Customers could request a ride using a
smartphone application, and the software would notify Uber drivers in the area of the request. When one
accepted, it would show the customer the car's approach on a map in real-time. The driver would take the
user to their destination, and payment would occur automatically using the customer's credit card
information that was stored online.
Perhaps the most unique part of the business model was that Uber drivers did not technically work for Uber.
Drivers were independent contractors; they needed only a smartphone, a driver's license, a car, Page 96
insurance, and a clean driving record to qualify to become an Uber driver. A dynamic pricing model
raised prices when demand was high and drivers were few, and the higher prices, in turn, lured more Uber
drivers to start accepting ride requests.
Over time the company added different classes of services (such as UberPool, Uber X, Uber XL, Uber
Select), and different services such as food delivery (Uber Eats), freight service (Uber Freight), and pet
transport (Uber Pets). By 2016, Uber was also testing autonomous vehicles in San Francisco.
Though the firm had endured numerous early conflicts with taxi unions and some highly public scandals
involving one of the company's founders, Travis Kalanick, the service was a huge success. By 2015, it had
completed its one billionth ride, making it the second largest ride-sharing service worldwide, after Didi
Chuxing in China. By 2018, it was operating in more than 674 cities in 82 countries worldwide. Its net
revenue (after paying drivers) in 2017 was $7.4 billion, and though the company was not publicly held, its
market valuation was estimated to be $72 billion.
Opportunities and Challenges for UberAIR
In 2018, there were more than seventy companies developing electric VTOLS (EVTOLS), including Karem
Aircraft, Embraer, Aurora Flight Sciences, and Bell Helicopter. However, there were a number of obstacles
that had to be overcome to make UberAIR a reality. First, an eVTOL used an enormous amount of energy
and would be heavily reliant on advances on battery development and charging infrastructure. Second,
there would be numerous legal and safety issues to be worked out pertaining to air traffic control, pilot
training and licensing, compatibility with city infrastructures, noise, dealing with adverse weather, and more.
Last, but not least, was cost. The technology to vertically take off and land already existed in the form of
helicopters, but most people have never ridden in one because it is an extremely expensive mode of
transportation, estimated to be at least $8.93 per passenger per mile. How would UberAIR be different?
First, electric propulsion was expected to be much more fuel efficient and require less maintenance. Second,
the much smaller eVTOLs could land at flexible "skyports" rather than the large helipads or airports that
helicopters used. Uber estimated that its initial operating costs would be $5.73 per passenger per mile, and
with efficient pooling it believed it could get the operating costs down to $1.84 per passenger per mile. As
people began to use eVTOLs in large numbers, scale economies would also drive down the cost of producing
the eVTOLs themselves. The final major cost-cutting measure would be to eliminate pilots with fully
autonomous eVTOLs, saving training costs, salaries, and making room for an additional passenger. Uber
estimated that with fully autonomous operation at scale, the long-run operating costs of UberAIR could be
as low as 44 cents per passenger mile-less than the operating cost of many cars.
Elon Musk, who is known for larger-than-life ambitions such as moving the world's auto fleet to renewable
energies and colonizing Mars, was skeptical, noting "it's difficult to imagine the flying car becoming a
scalable solution."d Musk also thought that aerial transportation would be too disruptive to people on the
ground, tweeting sarcastically, "If you love drones above your house, you'll really love vast numbers Page 97
of 'cars' flying over your head that are 1000 times bigger and noisier and blow away anything that
isn't nailed down when they land."e Musk was betting that a better solution could be achieved underground,
with electric pods that zipped through tunnels. Even Uber's CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi was initially doubtful
about the project. However, after several rounds of discussion on the economics of it, he began to be
persuaded. "For me the 'aha' moment came when I started understanding that Uber isn't just about cars,"
Khosrowshahi said. "Ultimately where we want to go is about urban mobility and urban transport, and being
a solution for the cities in which we operate."f
As of June, 2018, the company had plans for testing the service in Dallas and Los Angeles by 2020, and was
seeking an international launch city. It planned to have commercial deployment of the service by 2023.
Battle for the Skies
Uber was not the only company with dreams of revolutionizing personal air travel. Makers of eVTOLs such as
eVolo (based in Germany) and EHang (based in China) were also in the process of launching air taxi
services, and Terrafugia (based in the United States) was building a vehicle that it believed would be a mass
market flying car for personal use. If eVTOLs became widely available and economical, other ride-sharing
companies such as Lyft might also be well positioned to target the market. Would Uber's scale in ride
sharing enable it to achieve dominance in air ride sharing, and would such a position be sustainable?
Discussion Questions
1. Will there be increasing returns to adoption for an early mover in air taxi service? If so, what will they be?
2. What are the disadvantages of entering the air taxi market early?
3. What are the important complementary goods and enabling technologies for the air taxi market? Are they
available in sufficient quality and economy?
4. Is Uber well positioned to be a dominant player in this market? What resources will it need to be
successful?
5. Overall, would you say Uber's entry into the air taxi market is too early, too late, or about right?
Page 95
Chapter Five
Timing of Entry
UberAIR
In April 2017, Jeff Holden, the chief product officer at Uber Technologies Inc. announced a radically new
product called UberAir, an on-demand air transportation service:
On-demand aviation, has the potential to radically improve urban mobility, giving people back time
lost in their daily commutes. . . . Just as skyscrapers allowed cities to use limited land more
efficiently, urban air transportation will use three-dimensional airspace to alleviate transportation
congestion on the ground. A network of small, electric aircraft that take off and land vertically
(called Vertical Take-off and Landing, or VTOL, and pronounced vee-tol), will enable rapid, reliable
transportation between suburbs and cities and, ultimately, within cities, a
Uber's on-demand ride-sharing service had seriously disrupted traditional taxi and livery, and induced many
people to eschew car ownership altogether. However, that service was based on an innovative business
model and a software application-it did not require technological advances in either automobiles or driving
infrastructure. UberAIR was almost the opposite: it would leverage Uber's existing business model and
software programs, but would require major technological development in air transportation technology,
infrastructure for air traffic control, and a network of landing pads. It was an ambitious project, to put it
mildly.
Uber's Rise
Uber was founded in 2009 as a taxi-like ride-sharing service. Customers could request a ride using a
smartphone application, and the software would notify Uber drivers in the area of the request. When one
accepted, it would show the customer the car's approach on a map in real-time. The driver would take the
Page 95
Chapter Five
Timing of Entry
UberAIR
In April 2017, Jeff Holden, the chief product officer at Uber Technologies Inc. announced a radically new
product called UberAir, an on-demand air transportation service:
On-demand aviation, has the potential to radically improve urban mobility, giving people back time
lost in their daily commutes. . . . Just as skyscrapers allowed cities to use limited land more
efficiently, urban air transportation will use three-dimensional airspace to alleviate transportation
congestion on the ground. A network of small, electric aircraft that take off and land vertically
(called Vertical Take-off and Landing, or VTOL, and pronounced vee-tol), will enable rapid, reliable
transportation between suburbs and cities and, ultimately, within cities, a
Uber's on-demand ride-sharing service had seriously disrupted traditional taxi and livery, and induced many
people to eschew car ownership altogether. However, that service was based on an innovative business
model and a software application-it did not require technological advances in either automobiles or driving
infrastructure. UberAIR was almost the opposite: it would leverage Uber's existing business model and
software programs, but would require major technological development in air transportation technology,
infrastructure for air traffic control, and a network of landing pads. It was an ambitious project, to put it
mildly.
Uber's Rise
Uber was founded in 2009 as a taxi-like ride-sharing service. Customers could request a ride using a
smartphone application, and the software would notify Uber drivers in the area of the request. When one
accepted, it would show the customer the car's approach on a map in real-time. The driver would take the
user to their destination, and payment would occur automatically using the customer's credit card
information that was stored online.
Perhaps the most unique part of the business model was that Uber drivers did not technically work for Uber.
Drivers were independent contractors; they needed only a smartphone, a driver's license, a car, Page 96
insurance, and a clean driving record to qualify to become an Uber driver. A dynamic pricing model
raised prices when demand was high and drivers were few, and the higher prices, in turn, lured more Uber
drivers to start accepting ride requests.
Over time the company added different classes of services (such as UberPool, Uber X, Uber XL, Uber
Select), and different services such as food delivery (Uber Eats), freight service (Uber Freight), and pet
transport (Uber Pets). By 2016, Uber was also testing autonomous vehicles in San Francisco.
Though the firm had endured numerous early conflicts with taxi unions and some highly public scandals
involving one of the company's founders, Travis Kalanick, the service was a huge success. By 2015, it had
completed its one billionth ride, making it the second largest ride-sharing service worldwide, after Didi
Chuxing in China. By 2018, it was operating in more than 674 cities in 82 countries worldwide. Its net
revenue (after paying drivers) in 2017 was $7.4 billion, and though the company was not publicly held, its
market valuation was estimated to be $72 billion.
Opportunities and Challenges for UberAIR
In 2018, there were more than seventy companies developing electric VTOLS (EVTOLS), including Karem
Aircraft, Embraer, Aurora Flight Sciences, and Bell Helicopter. However, there were a number of obstacles
that had to be overcome to make UberAIR a reality. First, an eVTOL used an enormous amount of energy
and would be heavily reliant on advances on battery development and charging infrastructure. Second,
there would be numerous legal and safety issues to be worked out pertaining to air traffic control, pilot
training and licensing, compatibility with city infrastructures, noise, dealing with adverse weather, and more.
Last, but not least, was cost. The technology to vertically take off and land already existed in the form of
helicopters, but most people have never ridden in one because it is an extremely expensive mode of
transportation, estimated to be at least $8.93 per passenger per mile. How would UberAIR be different?
First, electric propulsion was expected to be much more fuel efficient and require less maintenance. Second,
the much smaller eVTOLs could land at flexible "skyports" rather than the large helipads or airports that
helicopters used. Uber estimated that its initial operating costs would be $5.73 per passenger per mile, and
with efficient pooling it believed it could get the operating costs down to $1.84 per passenger per mile. As
people began to use eVTOLs in large numbers, scale economies would also drive down the cost of producing
the eVTOLs themselves. The final major cost-cutting measure would be to eliminate pilots with fully
autonomous eVTOLs, saving training costs, salaries, and making room for an additional passenger. Uber
estimated that with fully autonomous operation at scale, the long-run operating costs of UberAIR could be
as low as 44 cents per passenger mile-less than the operating cost of many cars.
Elon Musk, who is known for larger-than-life ambitions such as moving the world's auto fleet to renewable
energies and colonizing Mars, was skeptical, noting "it's difficult to imagine the flying car becoming a
scalable solution."d Musk also thought that aerial transportation would be too disruptive to people on the
ground, tweeting sarcastically, "If you love drones above your house, you'll really love vast numbers Page 97
of 'cars' flying over your head that are 1000 times bigger and noisier and blow away anything that
isn't nailed down when they land."e Musk was betting that a better solution could be achieved underground,
with electric pods that zipped through tunnels. Even Uber's CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi was initially doubtful
about the project. However, after several rounds of discussion on the economics of it, he began to be
persuaded. "For me the 'aha' moment came when I started understanding that Uber isn't just about cars,"
Khosrowshahi said. "Ultimately where we want to go is about urban mobility and urban transport, and being
a solution for the cities in which we operate."f
As of June, 2018, the company had plans for testing the service in Dallas and Los Angeles by 2020, and was
seeking an international launch city. It planned to have commercial deployment of the service by 2023.
Battle for the Skies
Uber was not the only company with dreams of revolutionizing personal air travel. Makers of eVTOLs such as
eVolo (based in Germany) and EHang (based in China) were also in the process of launching air taxi
services, and Terrafugia (based in the United States) was building a vehicle that it believed would be a mass
market flying car for personal use. If eVTOLs became widely available and economical, other ride-sharing
companies such as Lyft might also be well positioned to target the market. Would Uber's scale in ride
sharing enable it to achieve dominance in air ride sharing, and would such a position be sustainable?
Discussion Questions
1. Will there be increasing returns to adoption for an early mover in air taxi service? If so, what will they be?
2. What are the disadvantages of entering the air taxi market early?
3. What are the important complementary goods and enabling technologies for the air taxi market? Are they
available in sufficient quality and economy?
4. Is Uber well positioned to be a dominant player in this market? What resources will it need to be
successful?
5. Overall, would you say Uber's entry into the air taxi market is too early, too late, or about right?
Purchase answer to see full
attachment