1 Isis Christopher Hawthorne Professor Jeffery Gardner 18, April, 2017 Isis 2 Isis Table of content 1.0…………………………………………………………………………………Introduction 1.1…………………………………………………………………………………Body 1.1.0……………………………………………………………Islamic ideology 1.1.1……………………………………………………………To take over the world 1.1.2……………………………………………………………Financial institution 1.2…………………………………………………………………………………Conclusion 1.3…………………………………………………………………………………reference 3 Isis 1.0 introduction Following the recent missile attack by the US that was targeting the ISIS, my focus will be on the possibility of ISIS revenging; they are a bunch of savages. ISIS is an abbreviation of Islamic States of Iraqi and Syria. It is an unrecognized pro-state militant group and is considered one of the most successful to have existed. It originated from Jama ‘at al Tawhid that took part in the Iraqi insurgency and proclaimed itself a worldwide caliphate. Many countries with UN among them refer to this group as a terrorist group. The group is highly destructive and is known for video beheadings of its prisoners. ISIS has bureaucratic hierarchy of leaders. The groups’ territories include oil fields that is a major source of income. Though the adoption of the name Islamic states has been greatly criticized, the group claims authority over all Muslims across the world. The group is believed to be fully operational in over 18 countries and is seemingly growing to other countries. 4 Isis 1.1 body Islamic States ideology is the establishment of a theological empire also known as the Caliphate to be ruled by a single political and religious leader according to Sharia; the Islamic law. ISIS can be traced back to 2003 when US among other Nations successfully killed Saddam Hussein whose regime was full of war against humanity. Their main objective to taking over the world is to influence people mainly youth into joining them to help them expand and grow stronger. They want a global leader and they believe the only way to come to this is through a global war. They teach extremism and influence their prey such that they lose their minds; they are taught that if they die in that path of seeking the truth, they shall enter paradise. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is deemed to be the leader of this pro-militia group. The figure is quite shadowy and little is known about him. Though there are claims that he studied at various courses at certain universities within Iraq and that he later taught as a lecturer, none of this has yet been clarified. Islamic states are known for exploiting the area around them as a means of acquiring funds to enhance their operations. They control financial institutions, tax and oil. Exporting of oil from oil fields captured by Islamic states earns them a fortune since it is estimated to earn over US$1 million a day. This is believed to be one of the greatest means of making money. They are also believed to taking captives and asking for ransoms in exchange for their freedom. In this case they just don’t kidnap everybody but rather relatives of tycoons who can be able to raise the crazy amount of cash they ask for. Some countries and individuals are also believed to making donations to this ruthless group with Qatar being in the spotlight. It was believed that the group 5 Isis acquired a lot of wealth when it captured Mosul through looting. Sale of antiques and artifacts is believed to be the second largest source of income. This is because they looted a grand palace and smuggled the treasure to other countries for sale. The US has constantly been coming into the way of the ISIS achieving their ultimate goal which is to rule the world with the sharia law put in place. Recently on April 3rd US launched a missile that was targeting the ISIS that saw them loose some of their men and weapons. In Iraq the US has been supporting the government in the war against this group and they lost quite a number of wars hence lost some of their territories to the government and the US forces. They must be very bitter and I believe that they will soon hit back at the US who are seemingly getting into their way. Firstly, there is a very high possibility of US being massively hit bearing in mind that Trump doesn’t seem to be cooperating with countries like Iran, Russia and Syria itself. Unlike the former presidents, Trumps regime might be a little different because he works his way. The United States can never go it alone and win this war unless they add more troops to their forces and invest heavily on it at the same time and this might not be easy. Trump’s relation with other countries might make ISIS come out strong since some of them might start turning their backs on US and supporting ISIS. Trump is known for his famous radical phrase ‘Islam hates us’ thus his war seems to be directly on Muslims rather than the terrorist groups. This poses a great danger to the US since the angered Muslim nations can opt to support ISIS to fire back. Secondly, Islamic state might not physically come and attack the United State but rather some of its supporters within the US might slowly revenge, Trump’s relation with the local 6 Isis Muslims has never been good hence the likelihood of having a few haters is a real thing. He seems to be promoting radicalism among his citizens and that comes with many problems. Thirdly, the Islamic States might opt to take US citizens who travel to other countries as tourists or even researchers their captives. It’s not the best alternative but this will hurt US directly. ISIS is known to possess chemical weapons; ISIS has attacked civilians with the chemical and killed hundreds. They are also known to possess vast number of assault and battle riffles, sniper rifles, machine guns, pistols, explosives and anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft launchers, towed artillery, tanks and armored fighting vehicles, artillery, aircraft and watercraft. 7 Isis 1.2 Conclusion The chances of the US being attacked by the ISIS are generally very high. Considering that the US president hasn’t been cooperating with other nations it might not receive the support it requires in the war against this ruthless group. Secondly presidents Trump belief that Muslims are the countries enemies might just be another trouble. Since his inauguration he has raised a new travel ban that blocks migrants from many Islamic countries. This brings hatred and thus may lead them encourage and help ISIS attack US. To win this battle the United States must ensure good relation with other countries like Russia, Iran and Syria. The president must also ensure he wins local Muslims loyalty. In so doing they will easily win the battle since by having a good relation with those countries they will get to know a lot about the enemy. Once the enemy is known inside out it is quite easy to deal with them effectively. 8 Isis 1.3 reference Adan Suleiman, (June 26th 2014) inside the Middle East Retrieved from http//:www.christianpost.com Christian Morison (May 2015) The Sun magazine about the Middle East, Retrieved from http//:www.thesun.com Amanpor (December 2014) CNN, inside the Middle East; ISIS, Retrieved from http//:www.cnn.com Edgar Owen, (January 20th 2015) The National Magazine, Retrieved from http//:www.crethiplethi.com Thank you for your work on this midterm paper. Your assignment was to select a terrorist organization likely to conduct a terrorist attack in the U.S. and complete an in-depth profile on the organization in 5-7 pages. Your task was to explain the organization’s origins, ideology, goals & objectives, leadership, funding, and capabilities and describe how you envision this group actually conducting an attack within the United States, such as the known and suspected weapons/lethal agents and delivery methods, and the tactics, techniques and procedures that they may use in conducting the attack within the U.S. homeland. Below is your grade breakdown and some comments are also included within your paper using GRADEMARK (see below). Make sure you incorporate my input into your future papers. Your paper was graded based on the SSGS grading rubric for 300-400 level courses as follows: 17/20 Focus/Thesis 16/20 Content/Subject Knowledge 18/20 Critical Thinking Skills 9 Isis 15/20 Organization of Ideas/Format 16/20 Writing Conventions Final Grade: 82 You can view my comments/corrections directly on your paper in grademark. Click on the percentage % number next to your paper file where it is green, yellow, or red. Your paper will open in turnitin. In the upper left you’ll see ORIGINALITY in red, GRADEMARK, and PEERMARK. Click GRADEMARK and then your paper will open and you can scroll down (The tab will turn blue once you click on it). Hover your mouse over the blue bubbles to read the full comments I made. Hawthorne 1 Christopher Hawthorne Professor Jeffery Gardner 11, May, 2017 The ISIS Terrorist Group 2 Hawthorne The ISIS Terrorist Group Domestic Data Collection Programs There are some programs used by the homeland security in the collection of intelligence data. The security departments may utilize these programs when collecting information on Islamic States of Iraqi and Syria (ISIS). The Human Intelligence (HUMINT) is one of the programs used in data collection. This program aims at obtaining intelligence data about a terrorist group through interviewing of human sources. The FBI has a mandate to a collection of data from suspects either openly or covert within the borders of America. This technique is most appropriate it only takes human intervention to assess the plans of the ISIS terrorist group. Furthermore, HUMINT is necessary for the provision of coverage and access. There are locations such as underground that needs human intelligence. The unveiling of such activities by the ISIS is only possible through the use of human intelligence. To determine ISIS attributes, personality, and motive, HUMINT is the best program to use (Finnegan, 2000). The second technique that the government security can use to obtain information about ISIS terrorist group is the open source intelligence (OSINT). This method is where government agency collects information about the terrorist group from print media, government agencies, and academic scholars among others. Reviewing this information will provide the intelligence units with information on the location of the ISIS group, their beliefs, leadership, history, and the sources of finance. The use of OSINT is likely to produce more information that will facilitate the understanding of the group. Moreover, the mutual interaction between different agencies will facilitate the acquisition of the relevant information. The development of the internet has had a Hawthorne 3 positive impact on OSINT since information about the group can be easily accessed (Johnson, 2010). The third technique is the signals intelligence (SIGINT) where the intelligence agency and homeland security collects electronic information on the terrorist group by intercepting the data before it reaches the intended recipient. The use of SIGINT will enhance earlier detection, assessment, and response in the event of any plan to attack the country by ISIS group. SIGINT provide first-hand information since it is a direct communication between the members of the group as opposed to other techniques such as HUMINT where manipulation of information may be present (Innes, 2006) SIGINT can be categorized into communication intelligence (COMINT) and electronic intelligence (ELINT). COMINT refers to the interception and analysis of the electronic information of the ISIS group members transmitted through cell phones or computer networks. ELINT involves signals not used for communications such as the radar systems. The ISIS terrorist group is likely to pass their information and instruction through the Internet or mobile phones. Therefore, the use of COMINT may be appropriate for determining their next move. Lastly, government agencies can use imagery intelligence (IMINT) to gather information on the surroundings and hideout places of the ISIS group. This strategy uses balloons and aircraft to collect the scenic view that is likely to provide information about the ISIS group. This photograph maps will give information for situation awareness. Also, through the use of IMINT, the intelligence agencies can locate the command posts and the location of machine guns. The photo reconnaissance can provide information on the current situation and the previous pictorial reviews of the ISIS group. Comparison of these two pictures may show information about the 4 Hawthorne future intentions of the group. The information obtained from the use photo intelligence (PHOTINT) may be used to support trench and maneuver warfare (Davies, 2009). Agencies of the Intelligence Community The intelligence community is comprised of several organizations which are designed to perform distinctive duties. The primary goal of all the bodies is the provision of intelligence information to the relevant agencies so that action could be taken to safeguard the USA from both internal and external terrorist attacks. However, in the collection of intelligence information on ISIS terrorist group, some organization could provide a detailed conclusive data as opposed to others. Military intelligence (MI) is the most appropriate for sourcing information about the ISIS terrorist movement. MI coordinates all the intelligence collection disciplines such as HUMINT, OSINT, STRATINT, and TECHINT among others that are responsible for soliciting information about the ISIS. Due to this reason, it is easier for the MI to gather the information using the data mentioned above collection programs. Through the strategic planning, MI can identify the longterm plan and the operational capabilities of the ISIS movement. The use of computer programs and careful analysis for the intelligence assessment, the MI can provide information to local police in the target areas of ISIS movement and its operation (Hughbank & Githens, 2010). Furthermore, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) gathers information from different agencies on ISIS so as to determine the plans of the group. The vision of DHS is the prevention of terrorism so as to achieve freedom to citizens. DHS in collaboration with other industry players such as American Chemistry Council will provide information on the types of chemicals that the ISIS group is likely to use in their attacks and the destructions caused by this chemical. This information will facilitate earlier preparedness and reduction of effects of 5 Hawthorne terrorism. Through the use of technology and computers, DHS can monitor electronic communication of the members of ISIS group by intercepting their calls or electronic mails. This technique enables government agencies to determine the plans of the movement and the target areas. Intelligence analysis facilitates the understanding of information collected about ISIS group (Mayer, Carafano & Zuckerman, 2011). Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agency in collaboration with the DHS has established Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) that is designed to gather, analyze, and process any criminal information. This initiative promotes the HUMINT data collection program which will provide valuable information concerning ISIS group. The availability of Terrorist Screening Center (TSC) in the FBI department has facilitated the management and operation of the watchlist. TSC will help in monitoring the actions of ISIS movement. Through counterterrorism field operations, the FBI officers can monitor the activities and financing of the members of the ISIS (Bjelopera & Randol, 2011). The National Reconnaissance Office has the responsibility of operating the reconnaissance satellite of the country. The agency can monitor all the actions of the ISIS terrorist group through the use satellites. NRO promotes the SIGINT data collection program that facilitates watching over the activities of the ISIS group. Intelligence Analysis Strategies Government agencies can use Red Team Analysis strategy where simulation of the ISIS terrorist group is done so as to determine the strategies that the group will use in attacking the country. The importance of Red Cell is the ability to consider alternatives on the different ways in which the group may attack (Mateski, 2006). Moreover, there is a presentation of new methods and evidence during the simulation process. It is, therefore, necessary that the Hawthorne 6 information obtained from red teaming helps the agencies in avoidance of over-relying on similar concepts on how to counter attack or prevent the activities of the terrorists. Through red teaming, the officers are encouraged to be open-minded and make contributions so as to determine the best alternative on how to deal with the ISIS militia. Carver Threat Analysis strategy will provide information on the places targeted by the ISIS group. CARVER stands for Critically, Accessibility, Recoverability, Vulnerability, Effect and Recognizability. Therefore, it is necessary that government agencies are aware and informed of all these components so as to determine the riskiest area or department. This information determines the number of security officers deployed in the region. When using the CARVER model, the security agencies will analyze the possible targets by allocating weights to each component (Aguiar, 2011). The target with the highest value after summing up all the weights in part is the most likely first target of the ISIS group. If the government agencies have a substantial amount of information about the ISIS movement, then the analysis of competing hypothesis strategy is appropriate. The intelligence has several alternative theories. Therefore, the use of ACH requires an analysis of all the different options (Gelder, 2012). 7 Hawthorne References Aguiar, Y. M. (2011). Assessing the CARVER+ S risk management model of terrorism preparedness in business continuity planning. North central University. Bjelopera, J. P., & Randol, M. A. (2011, April). The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Terrorism Investigations. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Davies, P. H. (2009). Imagery in the UK: Britain's troubled imagery intelligence architecture. Review of International Studies, 35(04), 957-969. Finnegan, J. P. (2000). The Evolution of US Army HUMINT: Intelligence Operations in the Korean War — Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi- studies/studies/vol.-55-no.-2/the-evolution-of-us-army-humint-intelligence-operations-inthe-korean-war.html Gelder, T. V. (2012, December 11). Analysis of Competing Hypotheses | Tim van Gelder. Retrieved from https://timvangelder.com/category/analysis-of-competing-hypotheses/ Hughbank, R. J., & Githens, D. (2010). Intelligence and Its Role in Protecting Against Terrorism. Journal of Strategic Security, 3(1), 31. Innes, M. (2006). Policing uncertainty: Countering terror through community intelligence and democratic policing. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 605(1), 222-241. Johnson, L. K. (2010). Handbook of intelligence studies. London: Routledge. Hawthorne 8 Mateski M. (2006). Red Teaming and Alternative Analysis | RED TEAM JOURNAL. Retrieved from http://redteamjournal.com/about/red-teaming-and-alternative-analysis/ Mayer M., Carafano J., & Zuckerman J. (2011, August 23). Homeland Security 4.0: Overcoming Centralization, Complacency, and Politics | The Heritage Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.heritage.org/homeland-security/report/homeland-security-40-overcomingcentralization-complacency-and-politics
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