Risk Management Tools for Safety Professionals – Part I, Chapter 4 RISK MANAGEMENT METHODS AND TOOLS Chapter 4 – Risk Identification Authors: Bruce K. Lyon, P.E., CSP, ARM, CHMM Georgi Popov, Ph.D., QEP, SMS, ARM, CMC 1 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Introduction • The process of assessing risk is considered the ‘core’ of risk management. The fundamental process of risk assessment enables those responsible for making decision to better understand the risk and its need for reduction or management. • Risk assessment, as defined in ISO Guide 73 (ANSI Z690.1-2011), Vocabulary for Risk Management standard, embodies three distinct, sequential components. These components are: ➢ Risk Identification - finding, recognizing and recording hazards ➢ Risk Analysis - understanding consequences and probabilities and existing controls ➢ Risk Evaluation – comparing levels of risk and considering additional controls • Of the three elements, risk identification is arguably the most critical aspect of risk assessment. 2 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Introduction • For risks to be managed, they must first be identified and assessed. Otherwise unidentified risks remain unknown and uncontrolled (Lyon, Hollcroft, 2012). • The risk management process from the ISO 31000 Risk Management standard is shown to the right. Figure 4.1 The ISO 31000 Risk Management Process reprinted with permission from ASSP 3 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Risk Identification and the ISO 31000 Series • As mentioned in previous chapters, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) released three standards for the management of risk in 2009. These three standards which were nationally adopted by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) in 2011 are: ➢ISO Guide 73:2009 (ANSI/ASSE Z690.1-2011), Vocabulary for Risk Management ➢ISO 31000:2009 (ANSI/ASSE Z690.2-2011), Risk Management Principles and Guidelines ➢IEC/ISO 31010:2009 (ANSI/ASSE Z690.3-2011), Risk Assessment Techniques • It is important to remember that these standards are designed for managing risk of all types, including risks that have potential positive outcomes, as well as risk that present negative impacts. 4 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard Identification and the ANSI Z590.3 PtD Standard • In the American National Standard, ANSI/ASSE Z590.3-(R2016), Prevention through Design (PtD), the focus is on assessing and reducing hazardrelated risks (which present negative impacts) during the design and redesign phases. • ANSI Z590.3 operates within the same principles and framework as ISO 31000 and ISO 31010. • ANSI Z590.3 is a safety standard, and incorporates the concept of ‘hazard analysis’ into the risk assessment process. ISO 31000 does not include hazard analysis, only risk analysis. 5 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard Identification and the ANSI Z590.3 PtD Standard • In addition to identifying hazards, ANSI Z590.3, Section 7.5 includes the need to ‘Consider the Failure Modes’ as part of the identification process. Failure mode refers to a state or condition where a system fails to perform correctly possibly resulting in harm. Failure modes include functions that do not perform within a defined parameter, perform inadequately or intermittently, or do not perform as intended. • The differences and relationship between hazards and risks are important to understand. Risks are derived from the exposure to hazards. 6 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard Identification and the ANSI Z590.3 PtD Standard • PtD Standard is unique in that it is designed to be applied throughout the life-cycle of a system including 1) the pre-operation stage, 2) operational stage, and 3) post incident and/or post operational stages. The standard also contains the hierarchy of controls concept used for selecting and applying the most effective controls for the hazard. • For these reasons, Z590.3 provides guidance that is more closely aligned with the roles and responsibilities of OSH professionals, while the ISO 31000 standards provide broader overarching guidance in enterprise risk management. 7 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard/Risk Identification • Hazard/risk identification involves finding, anticipating, recognizing, and describing hazards that could affect the achievement of an organization’s objectives. Specifically, the process of hazard identification (illustrated in the next slide) includes identifying the following: ➢existing and potential hazards ➢potential exposures to hazards ➢possible failure modes ➢events or circumstances that can cause or trigger a failure mode or present an exposure ➢existing controls ➢potential consequences 8 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard/Risk Identification Figure 4.2 The Process of Hazard/Risk Identification 9 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard/Risk Identification • Existing and Potential Hazards – Identification of hazards is the most important step in risk assessment. • If hazards, the source of risk, are not recognized and identified, risks cannot be assessed, reduced and managed. The identification of existing and potential hazards within the context of the assessment should be performed. • In addition to listing these hazards, a description or characterization of the hazards should be included. • There are many references and resources for common categories of hazards including the list in OSHA’s “Job Hazard Analysis”, Appendix 2 found in Publication 3071 at https://www.osha.gov/Publications/osha3071.pdf 10 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard/Risk Identification • Exposures to Hazards – The existence of a hazard alone does not necessarily translate to a risk. Risk is derived from the ‘exposure’ to a hazard. Therefore, in addition to identifying the hazards, the potential exposure to people, property, assets, the environment, and other things of value must also be identified. Exposure to hazards can occur in various ways including: ➢direct contact with hazard ➢indirect contact with hazard ➢proximity to hazard ➢duration of exposure ➢magnitude of exposure ➢concentration or dose of exposure 11 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard/Risk Identification • Possible Failure Modes – The potential ways a system, product, or element can fail and lead to harm should be identified and described. Failure modes are the state or condition where a system fails to perform as expected or deviates from its design tolerances resulting in a potential for harm or a hazardous event. To identify possible failure modes, the assessor should consider how the process or product can fail in a way that will lead to harm. A simple ‘what-if’ approach can be used to help identify potential failures in a system by exploring various ways something might fail. Examples of failure modes include: ➢ pre-mature operation (i.e. unexpected startup or release of energy) ➢ failure to start operation (i.e. sump pump fails to operate when water level rises beyond flood level) ➢ failure to stop operations (i.e. press brake fails to stop when interlock is activated) ➢ failure during operation (i.e. local exhaust system fails during welding operation) ➢ degraded or deterioration of operation (i.e. leak in containment vessel) ➢ exceeded capability/capacity of operation (i.e. over pressurization of vessel) ➢ reasonably foreseeable uses and misuses of operation (i.e. using forklift to raise worker to reach component) 12 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard/Risk Identification • Causes or Triggers – It is important to understand the circumstances, conditions, actions or inactions that can cause exposure to a hazard or trigger a hazardous event. Hazards can be acute in nature causing immediate harm from a single exposure, while cumulative-type hazards develop gradually from prolong or repeated exposure. A simple causal analysis can be used to help identify causes that can lead to hazard exposure. Basic causes may include: ➢Machinery - design, selection, condition, use, maintenance ➢Human – actions, inactions, knowledge, skill, capability, attention, interaction, communication ➢Management – direction, supervision, enforcement, communication ➢Methods – design, system, process, procedure, task, consistency ➢Materials – elements/constituents, selection, handling, storage, use, disposal ➢Environment – design/layout, condition, external factors 13 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Hazard Identification Methods • A number of formal and informal hazard/risk identification techniques are available including those mentioned in this manual and in ISO 31010 as illustrated in Figure to the right. Each method varies in complexity, application, strengths and limitations. The context of the assessment should be considered when selecting methods. In some cases, more than one technique may be needed to properly identify hazards and risks (Lyon, Popov, 2016). 14 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • Conducting Hazard/Risk Identification • Hazard identification can be used as a stand-alone technique or as an initial step in more detailed risk assessment methodologies. OSH professionals should have a firm knowledge of hazard types, causes, and consequences as well as experience in identification methods. A systematic approach to identifying hazards and their related elements is recommended. The following systematic steps are adapted from the MILSTD-882E standard Task 101: ➢Develop Plan ➢Define Responsibilities ➢Initiate Hazard Identification Process ➢Record and Track Hazards ➢Communicate Results 15 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #7: Brainstorming • Purpose: Brainstorming is a process commonly used to stimulate and generate a free-flowing dialogue to collect and identify a list of ideas. It is used to generate as many ideas as possible regarding a particular concern or problem. Brainstorming sessions are a relatively quick and easy way of collecting ideas. In risk assessment, it is used to generate a list of potential failures, hazards, risk and controls. • Application: Brainstorming sessions are often used as an initial identification method in a sequence of other analysis and assessment methods. To allow free flow of ideas, the session requires an environment free of criticism or judgment of ideas/items and should encourage participation and creative thinking. 16 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #7: Brainstorming • Process: Brainstorming is generally performed by a qualified, knowledgeable group of stakeholders and is either structured or nonstructured. • A skilled facilitator can vastly improve the outcome of a brainstorming effort. Figure 4.5 Brainstorming Process 17 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #8: Delphi Technique • Purpose: The Delphi Technique is used to gain a consensus on a subject matter from a group of knowledgeable stakeholders or experts. The technique uses a series of questionnaires to collect and collate opinions from a group of experts. An important aspect of the technique is that opinions are made independently and anonymously while having access to the other opinions or views during the process. • Application: The method is used for complex problems or systems to identify risk where expert judgment is needed. It can be used to identify risks, threats and opportunities and to gain consensus view on the likelihood and consequences of future events. It has application in reconciling differences among experts, generating consensus on decisions such as selection of risk treatments, and in developing forecasts and policies. 18 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #8: Delphi Technique • Process: The Delphi Method works through a number of cycles of anonymous written discussion and argument, managed by a facilitator. Participants in the process do not meet, or even necessarily know who else is involved: the facilitator controls the process, and manages the flow and consolidation of information. The anonymity and remoteness of the process helps to avoid issues of groupthink and personality conflict. More than this, it gives people time to think issues through properly, critique arguments rigorously and contribute fully. The process steps are listed in the next slide. 19 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #8: Delphi Technique Figure 4.6 Delphi Technique Process 20 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #9: Hazard Identification Study (HAZID) • Purpose: A hazard identification study or HAZID is a qualitative, structured technique using guide words and/or checklists for early identification of existing and potential hazards, their causes and consequences. It purpose is to anticipate, identify and list hazards associated with an operation, system, product or task in the first step of the risk assessment. • Application: HAZID is used early in the process for existing operations as well as conceptual or design phase efforts. It is often used in advance of other risk assessment methods. The technique can include a qualitative analysis to determine the potential severity and likelihood of occurrence which is sometimes referred to as a Risk Identification Study or RISKID. 21 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #9: Hazard Identification Study (HAZID) • Process: HAZID is generally conducted by an experienced multi-discipline team using documents, diagrams, guide words, checklists, and brainstorming to identify hazards, causes, consequences and controls. Generally, an experienced facilitator and team are used in a workshop setting. The specific part or node of an operation is selected for the study. The process steps are represented in below 22 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #9: Hazard Identification Study (HAZID) Figure 4.8 HAZID Flow Chart 23 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #10: Design Safety Review • Purpose: A design safety review is used to anticipate and identify potential hazards during the design and redesign process of new facilities, expansions in existing buildings, new or modified processes and systems, equipment and machines, and products. The purpose of a Design Safety Review is to avoid anticipated hazards through design of a new system or redesign of an existing system. • Application: Design safety reviews are most effective when performed at an early stage when design objectives are being discussed according to Z590.3, and should be considered in any major planned changed. 24 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • TOOLS USED TO IDENTIFY RISK FOR SAFETY PROFESSIONALS • Risk Management Tool #10: Design Safety Review • Process: The design safety review process is a systematic method used to anticipate, identify, avoid, eliminated or controlled hazards at the design stage. Management commitment and support are required to integrate prevention through design concepts. Figure 4.10 Design Safety Review Process Steps 25 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • References • ANSI/ASSE/AIHA Z10-2012 (R2017). American National Standard—Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems. Fairfax, VA: American Industrial Hygiene Association, 2012. • ANSI/ASSE Z590.3-2011 (R2016). Prevention through Design: Guidelines for Addressing Occupational Hazards and Risks in Design and Redesign Processes. Des Plaines, IL: American Society of Safety Engineers, 2011. • ANSI/ASSE Z690.1-2011. American National Standard - Vocabulary for Risk Management. Des Plaines, IL: American Society of Safety Engineers, 2011. • ANSI/ASSE Z690.2-2011. American National Standard – Risk Management Principles and Guidelines. Des Plaines, IL: American Society of Safety Engineers, 2011. • ANSI/ASSE Z690.3-2011. American National Standard - Risk Assessment Techniques. Des Plains, IL: American Society of Safety Engineers, 2011. • ASSE’s Risk Assessment Institute website (http://www.oshrisk.org/videos/) • Chevron. (2013). Chevron Pipe Line Company – Hazard Analysis Procedure Available at http://www.chevronpipeline.com/pdf/hazard_analysis_procedure.pdf 26 Chapter 4 – Risk Identification • References • Main, Bruce, W. Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities. Ann Harbor, MI: Design Safety Engineering, Inc., 2012. • Manuele, Fred. A., Advanced Safety Management: Focusing on Z10 and Serious Injury Prevention. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2008. • MIL-STD-882E. Standard Practice for System Safety. Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 2012. • Popov, G., Lyon, B., Hollcroft, B., Risk Assessment: A Practical Guide to Assessing Operational Risks. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2016 • Risk Assessments – Top 10 Pitfalls & Tips for Improvement, Bruce K. Lyon and Bruce Hollcroft, Professional Safety, December 2012, American Society of Safety Engineers • The Art of Assessing Risk: Selecting, Modifying, and Combining Methods to Assess Operational Risks, Bruce K. Lyon and Georgi Popov, Professional Safety, March 2016, American Society of Safety Engineers • OSHA. (2002). Job Hazard Analysis. Publication 3071 Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor, Author. Retrieved from https://www.osha.gov/Publications/osha3071.pdf 27 Hazards and Risks Identification Module 2 - Outline • Overview of SH&E Hazard Identification (HAZID), Risk Identification (RiskID) methods and selected tools • Operational HAZID • Risk Assessment Matrix and RiskID • Inherent risk vs. Current Risk Level Hazard and Risk ID Techniques Case Study 1 • Methanol AST • Based on CSB: Bethune Point Wastewater Plant Explosion http://www.csb.gov/bethune-point-wastewater-plant-explosion/ • And CSB: Caribbean Petroleum Refining Tank Explosion and Fire http://www.csb.gov/caribbean-petroleum-refining-tank-explosion-and-fire/ Sustainability and Safety • Methanol video • Watch the Safe Handling video – click on the link below Source: Methanol Institute: http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Biodiesel Production • Biodiesel is produced from vegetable oils, yellow grease, used cooking oils, or animal fats. Source: US Department of Energy: https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/biodiesel_production.html Health and Safety Concerns • Occupational (workplace) exposure is likely to cause the highest daily exposure to methanol. • Occupational exposures typically occur through inhalation of methanol vapors during production or use. • Occupational exposure to methanol may occur during its production, or result from its presence in refrigeration systems and as a component in the production of formaldehyde, MTBE, acetic acid, and other industrial chemicals. • The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) TimeWeighted-Average (TWA) Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL) to methanol is 200 ppm for an 8-hour day and 40-hour week. Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Health and Safety Concerns • Routine operations Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Health and Safety Concerns – Control Options • Engineering controls Where possible, automatically pump liquid methanol from drums or other storage containers to process containers to minimize the potential for exposure. Methanol should always be kept within closed systems and not left open to the atmosphere. • Ventilation The building ventilation system should provide fresh air for normal operation and should take into consideration the possibility of a leak. In some cases, natural ventilation may be adequate; otherwise, mechanical ventilation systems should be provided Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Health and Safety Concerns – Control Options • ??? controls • Exposure monitoring • Methanol has a faintly sweet alcohol odor but does not make its presence known until a concentration of 2000 ppm or above is reached, which is ten times higher than the safe limit for human exposure of 200 ppm. Because the odor of methanol is a poor indicator of concentration, it is essential that some quantitative measure of exposure be determined. Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Health and Safety Concerns – Control Options • PPE Exposure to methanol can occur via inhalation, skin absorption, contact with the eyes, or ingestion, whenever methanol is used or handled. The level of risk of exposure to methanol will dictate the appropriate level of personal protective equipment required. Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Process Safety Concerns • One important consideration is flammability range. Because the upper flammability limit of methanol is 36 percent by volume (vol%) compared to that of gasoline which is 6-7 vol%, methanol vapor can ignite and burn inside AST vapor space. • Corrosion is another consideration. Methanol is a conductive polar solvent; gasoline is a nonconductive, non-polar solvent. Galvanic and dissimilar metal corrosion in methanol service may be high if incompatible materials are placed in electrical contact with one another. Cathodic protection, and regulator inspection of methanol storage tanks and trim hardware is vitally important to avoid corrosion failure Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Process Safety Concerns • TANK MATERIALS OF CONSTRUCTION & TRIM MATERIALS COMPATIBILITY • Methanol tanks can be constructed of either carbon steel or 300 series austenitic stainless steel. Carbon steel has the advantage of lower capital cost, but the disadvantage of higher life cycle cost due to increased maintenance and costs associated with corrosion protection. Because methanol is a polar solvent, galvanic corrosion is more prevalent with methanol than with other commonlyused motor fuels. Source: Methanol.org http://www.methanol.org/safe-handling/ Operational HAZID HAZ ID# Hazard Cause Consequences 1 Thermal Expansion - Methanol Vapor generation Faulty/blocked vent - Excessive Intank vapor generation Overpressurization - Loss of containment. Property & tank damage 2 Corrosion - Methanol tanks, trim & Incompatible tank and trim materials piping Loss of containment. Methanol product loss. 3 Human factors/errors - Methonal tanks - overfilling Distraction, miscalculation Methanol product loss. 4 Environmental conditions - carbon steel tanks -corrosion Proximity to ocean and salts Methanol product loss. 5 Natural disasters - methanol tanks/piping - earthquake Storage system not designed for siesmic activity Methanol product loss. 6 Ignition sources - bonding & grounding - static discharge inadequate conductivity in bonding Damage to equipment from fire and & grounding explosion Chevron HAZID Tool Source: http://www.chevronpipeline.com/pdf/Hazard_Analysis_Procedure.pdf Safety HAZID • Purpose: HAZID is a qualitative, structured technique using guide words and/or checklists for early identification of potential hazards, their causes and consequences. • Application: HAZID is used early in the process for existing operations as well as conceptual or design phase efforts. It is often used in advance of other risk assessment methods. The technique can include a qualitative analysis to determine the potential severity and likelihood of occurrence which is sometimes referred to as a Risk Identification Study or RISKID. Once hazards and their consequences have been identified, a Hazard Register can be compiled and used to prioritize and select hazardous event scenarios to further analyze. Safety HAZID • Process: HAZID is generally conducted by an experienced multi-discipline team using documents, diagrams, guide words, checklists, and brainstorming to identify hazards, causes, consequences and controls. Generally, an experienced facilitator and team are used in a workshop setting. The specific part or node of an operation is selected for the study. Select Node HAZID Flow Chart Use Guide words to identify hazards Hazard Possible? HAZID Guide Words Yes Brainstorm Causes, Consequences Identify controls Record in HAZID Fire/explosion Mechanical failure Utility failure Thermal Chemicals & Substances Natural Disasters Environmental conditions Corrosion Human Factors/errors Electrical Ignition sources Dropped objects Collisions Inherent risk vs. Current Risk Level • What does Inherent Risk mean? "Inherent Risk" is commonly defined as "the risk without considering ANY controls" or alternatively "a raw risk that has no mitigation factors or treatments applied to it". • Current Risk Level could be defined as "the level of risk remaining after current controls have been applied". Source: http://blog.protecht.com.au/inherent-risk-friend-or-foe Inherent Risk Risk Reduction process First Layer of Protection Second Layer of Protection Third Layer of Protection Current Level Risk Additional Layers of Protection Future State Risk (ALARP: Optimal Risk) OSH HAZID – Hazard Cause Consequences Faulty/blocked vent - Excessive In- Over-pressurization - Loss of Thermal Expansion - Methanol - Vapor tank vapor generation. Lack of containment. Property & tank generation detection mechanisms damage Corrosion - Methanol tanks, trim & piping ID 4 more hazards 5 more causes 5 more consequences Comparisons of Hazard Analysis and Risk Analysis • We have done HAZID Source: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/01/500086140/-151-million-settlement-deal-reached-over-west-virginia-water-poisoning Determine Severity of Consequences Severity Rating Health Effects (People) Property Damage Environment Impact 5 Death or permanent total disability Catastrophic damage Significant impact 4 Permanent partial disability; hospitalizations of three people or more Severe damage Significant, but reversible impact 3 Injury or occupational illness resulting in one or more days away from work Significant damage Moderate reversible impact 2 Injury or occupational illness not resulting in a lost work day Moderate damage Minimal impact 1 First aid only or no injuries or illnesses Light damage No impact Hazard vs. Risk Source: ANSI Z10, 2012 • Now let’s determine likelihood of occurrence/probability of “injurious incident or exposure” Select a Risk Assessment Matrix Severity USACE EM 385 Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible Frequent E E H M ISO 31010 Risk Matrix Severity • An organization shall create and obtain broad agreement on a risk assessment matrix or other validated process that is suitable to the hazards and risks with which it deals. Note 1: A risk assessment matrix provides a method to categorize combinations of probability of occurrence and severity of harm, thus establishing risk levels. A matrix helps in communicating with decision makers on risk reduction actions to be taken. Also, risk assessment matrices assist in comparing and prioritizing risks, and in effectively allocating mitigation resources. Likelihood Very Unlikely (L1) Little or no chance of occurrence Unlikely (L2) Likely (L3) Could occur but Unlikely Could occur and is Likely Danger (S4) Moderate Risk High Risk Fatality; permanent Warning (S3) 4 8 Very High Risk 12 Very High Risk 16 High Risk Very High Risk 12 Long term injury/illness Caution (S2) Moderate Risk Substantial Risk 3 6 Low Risk Medical attention 2 Moderate Risk 4 Notice (S1) Very Low Risk Low Risk First Aid 1 2 Risk Assessment Code (RAC) Matrix Probability Likely Occasional E H H H M M L L Seldom H M L L Very Likely (L4) Could occur and is Very Likely 9 Substantial Risk 6 High Risk Moderate Risk 3 Moderate Risk 4 8 Unlikely M L L L Probability Descriptions – ANSI Z 590.3.2016R Risk ID – Top 3 Hazards SH&E Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) Thermal Exp. Overfill & Ign. Severity: Likelihood: Total Score Severity Rating 5 4 3 2 1 4 3 12 Incident Outcomes Property Health Effects (People) Damage Death or permanent total disability Catastrophic damage 5 3 15 Light damage Corrosion 4 2 8 Likelihood of Occurrence Environment Impact 1 Very Unlikely 2 Unlikely 3 Possible 4 Likely 5 Very Likely Significant impact 5 10 15 20 25 4 8 12 16 20 3 6 9 12 15 2 4 6 8 10 1 2 3 4 5 Permanent partial disability; Significant, but hospitalizations of three Severe damage reversible people or more impact Injury or occupational illness Moderate Significant resulting in one or more days reversible damage away from work impact Injury or occupational illness Moderate not resulting in a lost work Minimal impact damage day First aid only or no injuries or illnesses RISKID & Heat Map No impact 
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