Econ 610 Term Project Guidelines Purpose (1 page) The purpose of the term project is to analyze, estimate or forecast the demand of a good, as well as the estimation of a production cost function. The steps involved in the analysis and estimation of demand or cost functions include the analysis of optimal decisions based on the parameters of the functions. The purpose of the term project must clearly identify the potential (or hypothetical) uses of the results. Structure of the term project. The analysis will be presented as a written report including the following sections: 1. Introduction and definition of the problem (1 – 2 pages) This section addresses the following topics: a) why is this analysis important and why should we care about it? Why is this a topic of importance for managerial decisions? What is the underlying economic problem (e.g., is it about allocating resources, understanding consumer or firm’s behavior, estimating demand or cost functions)? 2. Characteristics of the market or sector (1 – 2 pages) This section describes the market or the sector where the analysis is conducted. This description must include the identification of the economic sector; for instance, whether the study is about markets in agriculture, industry or services. This section also explains whether the analysis refers to a specific market (i.e., defined by location, type of product, etc.), or a whole industry or national market. 3. Theoretical approach for the analysis (1 – 2 pages) This section explains the concepts and theories that guide your analysis. If the project is about estimating a demand function, for instance, here you explain the variables that you anticipate will have an effect on quantity demanded of the product of your choice. You also introduce here your hypothesis (e.g., in the case of demand, we expect that the relationship between quantity demanded and price of the good follows the law of demand, or if the good under analysis is a normal good we expect to see a positive effect of income on quantity demanded). 4. Description of the data (2 – 3 pages) You introduce the nature of the data (e.g., cross-section or time-series), the variables included, as well as the characteristics of the variables defined in terms of descriptive statistics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values). 5. Estimation/Analysis methodology (1 – 2 pages) You explain in this section the methodology of the analysis, whether this is a regression analysis with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), or time-series analyses, variable forecast, etc. You also explain here the variables chosen for the analysis (based on what you explained in Section 3). 6. Results (1 – 2 pages) You introduce and discuss the results of your statistical analysis. What are the main findings of your analysis, and what can we learn from your work? 7. Conclusions and recommendations (1 – 2 pages) Based on the findings of your analysis, what would the managerial recommendations be? How the results of your project may inform managerial decisions and contribute to the objectives of the firm? If you think that the analysis could be improved by including other variables (not currently available in your dataset), what would these variables be, and why? Key dates: Project Presentations: 13/11/2021 Project submission: 9/12/2021 Your final project will be graded according to the following rubric: General: Clarity and Organization 1 Objective of the paper is well defined. 2 Creates a wellorganized research project 3 The research paper employs proper spelling and grammar. Below Expectations (1) Meets Expectations (2) Exceeds Expectations (3) Objective was not clearly stated. The research project was not well organized Clearly stated the objective of the paper. The research project was well organized Objective was exceptionally well articulated. The research project was very well organized Spelling and grammar was appropriate for a research paper. The paper had very few spelling and grammatical errors. The student adequately articulates why the paper The student does an exceptional job in explaining Spelling and grammatical errors occurred multiple times throughout the paper. Introduction/Literature Review/Theoretical Model 4 Undertakes The student research on a does not clearly significant articulate why problem that is the paper worthy of study. addresses a topic that is worthy of study. addresses a topic that is worthy of study. 5 References to relevant market structure characteristics 6 Restatement of theories underlying research in a way that indicates a thorough understanding Clearly states the hypothesis. Student neglected key references to the market structure characteristics Discussion of theory lacks clarity, omits important theories, or does not demonstrate comprehension. Hypothesis (or hypotheses) was not clearly stated. Market structure characteristics is comprehensive and up to date. Clear discussion of major theories underlying research. Clearly stated the main hypothesis (or hypotheses). Hypothesis (or hypotheses) was exceptionally well articulated. Student failed to find data suitable for testing their hypothesis. Data were appropriate for testing the hypotheses. Student found the best possible data to test their hypotheses. The student did not clearly describe the source of the data. The student did an adequate job of describing the source of the data. Student did not adequately describe the distribution of the dependent and explanatory variables. Student adequately described the distribution of the dependent and explanatory variables. The student did an exceptionally good job at describing the source of the data. Student did an exceptional job of describing the distribution of the dependent and explanatory variables. 7 Data/Research Methodology 8 The student did the best possible analysis given the available data. 9 The process by which the data was generated or gathered is clearly described. 10 Describes the distribution of the data, including the potential problems associated with missing why the paper addresses a topic that is worthy of study. Market structure characteristics is exceptionally wide- ranging and rigorous. Displays a thorough command of the economic theory underlying their research. 11 12 13 14 Results/Conclusion 15 16 variables, selection, and outliers. Use appropriate econometric methods to test the hypothesis. Clearly explains the econometric methods. Accurately employs the appropriate econometric methods. Recognize the limitations of methods and data. Results of research should be clearly presented Presents a wellsupported conclusion as a result of the analysis. Student did not use the appropriate econometric method to test the hypothesis. The student used adequate econometric methods to test the hypothesis. The student used econometric methods that were rigorous and comprehensive. The student did The student Methods were not explain the explained the explained very methods used in methods used in well. the project. the project. The student had The student The student did significant correctly an exceptional problems in implemented job in implementing their implementing their econometric their econometric methodology. econometric methodology. methodology. Unable to Recognized Very accurately recognize the most of the recognized all limitations of limitations of of the methods and methods and limitations of data. data. the methods and data. The results of the research were not clearly presented. The results of the research were clearly presented. Conclusion was not well supported by the analysis. Conclusion was well supported by the analysis. The results of the research were very clearly presented. Conclusion was extremely wellsupported by the analysis. DEMAND FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORK FOR SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT Ashvin Kochak1* and Suman Sharma1 *Corresponding Author: Ashvin Kochak, ashvinkochak@gmail.com The demand forecasting technique which is modeled by artificial intelligence approaches using artificial neural networks. The consumer product causers the difficulty in forecasting the future demand and the accuracy of the forecast In performance of the artificial neural network an advantage in a constantly changing business environment and demand forecasting an organization in order to make right decisions regarding manufacturing and inventory management. The learning algorithm of the prediction is also imposed to better prediction of time series in future. The prediction performance of recurrent neural networks a simulated time series data and a practical sales data have been used. This is because of influence of several factors on demand function in retail trading system. It was also observed that as forecasting period becomes smaller, the ANN approach provides more accuracy in forecast. Keywords: Demand forecasting, Artificial neural network, Time series forecasting INTRODUCTION Demand and sales forecasting is one of the most important functions of manufacturers, distributors, and trading firms. Keeping demand and supply in balance, they reduce excess and shortage of inventories and improve profitability. When the producer aims to fulfil the overestimated demand, excess production results in extra stock keeping which ties up excess inventory. On the other hand, underestimated demand causes unfulfilled orders, lost sales foregone opportunities and reduces service levels. Both scenarios lead 1 to inefficient supply chain. Thus, the accurate demand forecast is a real challenge for participant in supply chain. The ability to forecast the future based on past data is a key tool to support individual and organizational decision making. In particular, the goal of Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is to predict the behavior of complex systems by looking only at past patterns of the same phenomenon. Forecasting is an integral part of supply chain management. Traditional forecasting methods suffer from serious limitations which affect the forecasting Truba College of Engineering and Technology, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India. accuracy. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms have been found to be useful techniques for demand forecasting due to their ability to accommodate non-linear data, to capture subtle functional relationships among empirical data, even where the underlying relationships are unknown or hard to describe. Demand analysis for a valve manufacturing industry which typically represents a make to order industry has been carried out using neural network based on different training methods. A company may hold inventories of raw materials, parts, work in process, or finished products for a variety of reasons, such as the following. To create buffers against the uncertainties of supply and demand; To take advantage of lower purchasing and transportation costs associated with high volumes; To take advantage of economies of scale associated with manufacturing products in batches; To build up reserves for seasonal demands or promotional sales; To accommodate product flowing from one location to another (work in process or in transit). LITERATURE REVIEW Qualitative method, time series method, and causal method are 3 important forecasting techniques. Qualitative methods are based on the opinion of subject matter expert and are therefore subjective. Time series methods forecast the future demand based on historical data. Causal methods are based on the assumptions that demand forecasting are based on certain factors and explore the correlation between these factors. Demand forecasting has attracted the attention of many research works. Many prior studies have been based on the prediction of customer demand based on time series models such as movingaverage, exponential smoothing, and the BoxJenkins method, and casual models, such as regression and econometric models. There is an extensive body of literature on sales forecasting in industries such as textiles and clothing fashion (Sun et al., 2008; and Fan et al., 2011), books (Tanaka et al., 2010), and electronics (Chang et al., 2013). However, very few studies center on demand forecasting in industrial valve sector which is characterized by the combination of standard products manufactures and make to order industries. Lee et al. (1997) studied bullwhip effect which is due to the demand variability amplification along a SC from retailers to distributors. Chen et al. (2000) analyzed the effect of exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer on the bullwhip effect. Zhao et al. (2002) investigated the impact of forecasting models on SC performance via a computer simulation model. Dejonckheere et al. (2003) demonstrated the importance of selecting proper forecasting techniques as it has been shown that the use of moving average, naive forecasting or demand signal processing will induce the bullwhip effect. Autoregressive linear forecasting, on the other hand, has been shown to diminish bullwhip effects, while outperforming naive and exponential smoothing methods (Chandra and Grabis, 2005). Although the quantitative methods mentioned above perform well, they suffer from some limitations. First, lack of expertise might cause a mis-specification of the functional form linking the independent and dependent variables together, resulting in a poor regression (Tugba Efedil et al., 2008). Secondly an accurate prediction can be guaranteed only if large amount of data is available. Thirdly, non-linear patterns are difficult to capture. Finally, outliers can bias the estimation of the model parameters. The use of neural networks in demand forecasting overcomes many of these limitations. Neural networks have been mathematically demonstrated to be universal approximates of functions (Garetti and Taisch, 1999). Al-Saba et al. (1999) and Beccali et al. (2004), refer to the use of ANNs to forecast short or long term demands for electric load. Law (2000) studied the ANN demand forecasting application in tourism industry. Abort and Weber (2007) presented a hybrid intelligent system combining autoregressive integrated moving average models and NN for demand forecasting in SCM and developed an inventory management system for a Chilean supermarket. Chiu and Lin (2004) demonstrated how collaborative agents and ANN could work in tandem to enable collaborative SC planning with a computational framework for mapping the supply, production and delivery resources to the customer orders. Kuoand Xue (1998) used ANNs to forecast sales for a beverage company. Their results showed that the forecasting ability of ANNs is indeed better than that of ARIMA specifications. hang and Wang (2006) applied a fuzzy BPN to forecast sales for the Taiwanese printed circuit board industry. Although there are many papers regarding the artificial NN applications, very few studies center around application of different learning techniques and optimization of network architecture (Jeremy Shapiro, 2001). METHODOLOGY In the present research work new outline of investigation using Neural Network, this technique is planned to investigate the influence of demand forecasting to predictions of next year consumptions for the average. Demand Forecasting The demand forecasting is use ANN method. Traditional time series demand forecasting models are Naive Forecast, Average, Moving Average Trend and Multiple Linear Regression. The naive forecast which uses the latest value of the variable of interest as a best guess for the future value is one of the simplest forecasting methods and is often used as a baseline method against which the performance of other methods is compared. The moving average forecast is calculated as the average of a defined number of previous periods. Trend-based forecasting is based on a simple regression model that takes time as an independent variable and tries to forecast demand as a function of time. The multiple linear regression model tries to predict the change in demand using a number of past changes in demand observations as independent variables. Artificial Neural Network In This project is used ANN method. The development of ANN based on studying the relationship of input variables and output variables basically the neural architecture consisted of three or more layers, input layer, output layer and hidden layer. The function of this network was described as follows. A typical artificial neuron and the modeling of a multilayered neural network are illustrated in the signal flow from inputs x1, ..., xn is considered to be unidirectional, which are indicated by arrows, as is a neuron’s output signal flow (O). The neuron output signal O is given by the following relationship. Figure 1: Artificial Neuron n O f net f w jxj ...(1) j 1 where wj is the weight vector, and the function f(net) is referred to as an activation (transfer) function. The variable net is defined as a scalar product of the weight and input vectors, net w Tx w 1x1 w n xn ...(2) where T is the transpose of a matrix, and, in the simplest case, the output value O is computed as: O f net 1 wT x  0 Otherwise ...(3) where  is called the threshold level; and this type of node is called a linear threshold unit. In different types of neural networks, most commonly used is the feed-forward error back-propagation type neural nets. In these networks, the individual elements neurons are organized into layers in such a way that output signals from the neurons of a given layer are passed to all of the neurons of the next layer. Thus, the flow of neural activations goes in one direction only, layer-by-layer. The smallest number of layers is two, namely the input and output layers. More layers, called hidden layers, could be added between the input and the output layer to increase the computational power of the neural nets. Provided with sufficient number of hid en units, a neural network could act as a universal approximate. Back Propagation Training Algorithms MATLAB to l box is used for neural network implementation for functional approximation for demand forecasting. Different back propagation algorithms in use in MATLAB ANN tool box are: • Batch Gradient Descent (traingd) • Variable Learning Rate (traingda, traingdx) • Conjugate Gradient Algorithms (traincgf, traincgp, traincgb, trainscg) • Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm (trainlm): Like the quasi-Newton methods, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was designed to approach second-order training speed without having to compute the Hessian matrix. When the performance function has the form of a sum of squares (as is typical in training feed forward networks), then the Hessian matrix can be approximated as: H = JTJ ...(4) Table 1: Product Data of Fuel Filter for the Year 2011 to 2013 And the gradient can be computed as G = JTe ...(5) where is J the Jacobian matrix that contains first derivatives of the network errors with respect to the weights and biases, and e is a vector of network errors. The Jacobian matrix can be computed through a standard back propagation technique that is much less complex than computing the Hessian matrix. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm uses this approximation to the Hessian matrix in the following Newton like update. Xk 1 Xk JT J µI 1 JT e ...(6) This algorithm appears to be the fastest method for training moderate-sized Fed forward neural networks (up to several hundred weights). It also has a very efficient MATLAB implementation, since the solution of the matrix equation is a built-in function, so its attributes become even more pronounced in a MATLAB setting. RESULTS Month Year 2011 2012 2013 January 53 69 72 February 58 63 75 March 59 65 72 April 62 70 79 May 63 69 80 June 56 72 78 July 59 64 76 August 61 71 69 September 63 75 86 October 64 76 90 November 61 73 92 December 59 75 89 Total 718 842 958 month wise data consumptions are show in above table and find the next year data for the supply chain managment, now we will first all consider the base year data of 2011 in 12th month to calculate next year data of 2012 but 2012 data are available but can not consider as a forecasting data only consider as a target data. The monthly sales data of the distributor, between the years of 2011-2013, are used to train the networks as inputs and outputs, and then the demand pattern forecasts for 12 months of 2014 are made based on time series analysis. Matlab 7.0 is used for ANN simulation. To calculate the forecasting error between actual data of 2012 and forecasting data 2013 and also formula available for the calculating of forecasting error in MATLAB coding We have a product data available from 2011 to 2013. The data of fuel filter available from privious year 2011 to 2013 in above table, privious data alrady consumed in large company, and month wise data consumptions are show in above table and find the next year data for the The data of fuel filter available from privious year 2011 to 2013 in above table, privious data alrady consumed in large company, and forecasting r=abs(frcst-target’)and also calculate the percetage error using formula are pe=(forecasting r/target)*100; Table 2: Prediction of Next Year Consumptions (2013) S. No. Month 1. Jan 2. Base Year Data (2011) Forecasting Data (2013) Target Data (2012) Forecasting Error 53.0 68.70 69.0 0.29 0.42 Feb 58.0 62.67 63.0 0.32 0.51 3. Mar 59.0 65.44 65.0 0.44 0.69 4. Apr 62.0 67.99 70.0 2.00 2.86 5. May 63.0 71.03 69.0 2.03 2.94 6. Jun 56.0 71.56 72.0 0.43 0.59 7. Jul 59.0 64.11 64.0 0.11 0.18 8. Aug 61.0 70.07 71.0 0.92 1.29 9. Sep 63.0 74.94 75.0 0.05 0.07 10. Oct 64.0 75.77 76.0 0.22 0.29 11. Nov 61.0 75.33 73.0 2.33 3.19 12. Dec 59.0 65.21 75.0 9.78 13.04 % Error Figure 2: Graph Plotted Pbetween Actual Demand and Forecasting Demand Figure 4: Graph Plotted Between Actual Demand and Forecasting Demand Figure 3: Forecasting Error with Respect Month Figure 5: Forecasting Error with Respect Month Table 3: Prediction of Next Year Consumptions (2014) S. No. Month 1. Jan 2. Base Year Data (2011) Forecasting Data (2013) Actual Data (2013) Forecasting Error 69.0 72.69 72.0 0.69 0.96 Feb 63.0 72.63 75.0 2.36 3.15 3. Mar 65.0 72.63 72.0 0.63 0.88 4. Apr 70.0 74.39 79.0 4.60 5.83 5. May 69.0 75.02 80.0 4.97 6.21 6. Jun 72.0 76.13 78.0 1.86 2.38 7. Jul 64.0 72.64 76.0 3.35 4.408 8. Aug 71.0 76.06 69.0 7.06 10.23 9. Sep 75.0 76.18 86.0 9.817 11.40 10. Oct 76.0 76.18 90.0 13.81 15.35 11. Nov 73.0 75.58 92.0 16.41 17.84 12. Dec 75.0 75.71 89.0 13.28 14.92 supply chain managment, now we will first all consider the base year data of 2012 in 12 th month to calculate next year data of 2014 but 2013 data are available but can not consider as a forecasting data only consider as a target data. To calculate the forecasting error between actual data of 2013 and forecasting data 2014 and also formula vailable for the calculating of forecasting error in MATLAB coding forecasting r=abs(frcst-target’)and also calculate the percetage error using formula are pe=(forecasting r/target)*100; CONCLUSION In this project we have observed performance of product demand forecasting. The project is consumer product for future average. The effectiveness of forecasting the demand signals in the supply chain with ANN method and identify the best training method. This study has developed a cooperative forecasting % Error mechanism based on ANN and training methods. The proposed methodology, demand forecasting issue was investigated on a manufacturing company as a real-world case study. The result indicates a TrainLM method performs more effectively than the other tanning method and the more reliable forecast for our case. The proposed methodology can be considered as a successful decision support tool in forecasting. The ability to increase forecasting accuracy will result. Future research can possibility of using Artificial Neural Network to make a similar approach and better the accuracy. REFERENCES 1. Aburto L and Weber L (2007), “Improved Supply Chain Management Based on Hybrid Demand Forecasts”, Applied Soft Computing, Vol. 7, pp. 136-144. 2. Anandhi V and Manicka Chezian R (2012), “Backpropagation Algorithm for Forecasting the Price of Pulpwood- Eucalyptus”, International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Science, pp. 355-357. 9. 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Simon Haykin (2001), “Kalman Filtering and Neural Networks”, John Wiley & Sons Inc., ISBNs: 0-471-36998-5 (Hardback), 0-471-22154-6 (Electronic). 19. Tsiakis P, Shah N and Pantelides C C (2001), “Design of Multi-Echelon Supply Chain Networks Under Demand Uncertainty”, Ind. Eng. Chem. Res., Vol. 40, pp. 3585-3604. 20. Yanxiang He, Feng Li, Zhikai Song and Ge Zhang (2002), “Neural Networks Technology for Inventory Management”, Computer Engineering and Application, No. 15, pp. 182-184.
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