New Business Forecasting Case study APA, Excel, business & finance homework help

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timer Asked: Jul 15th, 2017
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Question Description

Access the "Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy" page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website (https://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm) and complete this forecasting assignment according to the directions provided in the "Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning" resource.

Use an Excel spreadsheet file for the calculations and explanations. Cells should contain the formulas (if a formula was used to calculate the entry in that cell). Students are highly encouraged to use the Excel resource, "Forecasting Template," to complete this assignment.

Mac users can use StatPlus:mac LE, free of charge, from AnalystSoft.

Prepare the assignment according to the guidelines found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center. An abstract is not required.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning

1
Unsatisfactory
0.00%

2
Less than Satisfactory
74.00%

3
Satisfactory
79.00%

4
Good
87.00%

5
Excellent
100.00%

100.0 %Content

15.0 %Two-Period Moving Average

Two-period moving average is not included.

Two-period moving average is present, but it lacks detail or is incomplete.

Two-period moving average is present.

Two-period moving average is clearly provided and well developed.

Two-period moving average is comprehensive and thoroughly developed with details.

15.0 %Three-Period Moving Average

Three-period moving average is not included.

Three-period moving average is present, but it lacks detail or is incomplete.

Three-period moving average is present.

Three-period moving average is clearly provided and well developed.

Three-period moving average is comprehensive and thoroughly developed with details.

15.0 %Exponential Smoothing

Exponential smoothing is not included.

Exponential smoothing is present, but it lacks detail or is incomplete.

Exponential smoothing is present.

Exponential smoothing is clearly provided and well developed.

Exponential smoothing is comprehensive and thoroughly developed with details.

15.0 %Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is not included.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is present, but it lacks detail or is incomplete.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is present.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is clearly provided and well developed.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is comprehensive and thoroughly developed with details.

20.0 %Summary Page, Including Review of Error, Recommendations on the Best Forecasting Model to Use, and Analysis of the Business Trend Data for New Business Startup in the United States

Summary page, including review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States is not included.

Summary page, including review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States is present, but it lacks detail or is incomplete.

Summary page, including review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States is present.

Summary page, including review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States is clearly provided and well developed.

Summary page, including review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States is comprehensive and thoroughly developed with details.

10.0 %Mechanics of Writing (includes spelling, punctuation, grammar, language use)

Surface errors are pervasive enough that they impede communication of meaning. Inappropriate word choice or sentence construction is used.

Frequent and repetitive mechanical errors distract the reader. Inconsistencies in language choice (register) or word choice are present. Sentence structure is correct but not varied.

Some mechanical errors or typos are present, but they are not overly distracting to the reader. Correct and varied sentence structure and audience-appropriate language are employed.

Prose is largely free of mechanical errors, although a few may be present. The writer uses a variety of effective sentence structures and figures of speech.

Writer is clearly in command of standard, written, academic English.

10.0 %Documentation of Sources (citations, footnotes, references, bibliography, etc., as appropriate to assignment and style)

Sources are not documented.

Documentation of sources is inconsistent or incorrect, as appropriate to assignment and style, with numerous formatting errors.

Sources are documented, as appropriate to assignment and style, although some formatting errors may be present.

Sources are documented, as appropriate to assignment and style, and format is mostly correct.

Sources are completely and correctly documented, as appropriate to assignment and style, and format is free of error.

100 %Total Weightage



Forecasting Case Study: New Business Planning Important Note: Students must access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website in order to complete this assignment. Scenario The generation of new business start-up is vital to the growth of the economy as it builds new jobs and creates new opportunities for the community. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks new business development and jobs created on the website for the United States Department of Labor. You have been tasked with forecasting economic growth and decline patterns for new businesses in the United States. Forecasting Access the “Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy” page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. Under the "Business establishment age" heading, the first chart reviews new businesses less than 1 year old during the March 1994 to March 2015 period. Click on the [Chart data] link below the chart: Once the chart data window opens, you will see the number of establishments that are less than 1 year old for each year during this period: Using the five most recent years and the "Forecasting Template" spreadsheet provided, complete the forecasts for the next two periods and provide updated Totals and Average Bias, median absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for all four charts. Provide a Summary Page in Excel with a 500-750 word report on the analysis completed by the forecasting models. Include review of error, recommendations on the best forecasting model to use, and analysis of the business trend data for new business startup in the United States. 2
Forecasting Num pds Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Moving averages - 2 period moving average 3 Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Error Absolute Demand 38 40 41 37 45 39 40,5 39 Total Average Bias Period 6 Period 7 50 44 47,5 Average Squared Abs Pct Err 2 2 4 04,88% -3,5 3,5 12,25 09,46% 6 6 36 13,33% 4,5 11,5 52,25 27,67% 1,5 3,8333333 17,416667 09,22% before forecast MAD MSE MAPE 2,5 2,5 6,25 05,00% after forecast period 6 Bias MAD MSE MAPE Forecasting 50 45 40 Value 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 Time Demand Forecast 5 Forecasting Num pds Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Moving averages - 3 period moving average 3 Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Error Absolute Demand 38 40 41 37 45 50 44 Squared Abs Pct Err 39,666667 -2,666667 2,6666667 7,1111111 07,21% 39,333333 5,6666667 5,6666667 32,111111 12,59% Total 3 8,3333333 39,222222 19,80% Average 1,5 4,1666667 19,611111 09,90% Bias MAD MSE MAPE 44 6 6 36 12,00% Average after forecast period 6 Bias MAD MSE MAPE Forecasting 50 45 40 Value 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 Time Demand Forecast 5 Forecasting Alpha Data Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Exponential smoothing 0,3 Demand 38 40 41 37 45 50 44 Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Error Absolute 38 0 0 38 2 2 38,6 2,4 2,4 39,32 -2,32 2,32 38,624 6,376 6,376 Total 8,456 13,096 Average 1,6912 2,6192 Bias MAD SE 40,5368 9,4632 9,4632 Average Bias MAD Squared Abs Pct Err 0 0,00% 4 5,00% 5,76 5,85% 5,3824 6,27% 40,653376 14,17% 55,795776 31,29% 11,159155 06,26% Before forecast MSE MAPE 4,3126085 89,552154 18,93% after forecast period 6 MSE MAPE Forecasting 50 45 40 Value 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 38 Forecasting 3 Time 38 38 4 Forecasting Alpha Beta Data Trend adjusted exponential smoothing 0,3 0,7 Period Demand Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 38 40 41 37 45 Next period 41,168341 Next period Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecast Smoothed Including Forecast, Smoothed Trend, Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err Ft Trend, Tt FITt 38 38 0 0 0 00,00% 38 0 38 2 2 4 05,00% 38,6 0,42 39,02 1,98 1,98 3,9204 04,83% 39,614 0,8358 40,4498 -3,4498 3,4498 11,90112 09,32% 39,41486 0,111342 39,526202 5,473798 5,473798 29,962465 0,12164 41,168341 1,2608396 42,429181 Total 6,003998 12,9036 49,783985 31,32% Average 1,2007996 2,58072 9,9567969 06,26% Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 4,0736546 42,050929 0,6178114 42,668741 Total Average Bias MAD SE MSE MAPE 0 50 45 40 35 Value 30 After forecast 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 Forecasting 1 2 3 4 Time Demand Smoothed Forecast, Ft 5

Tutor Answer

psumanrec
School: University of Maryland

Please find answer.Thank you.I am including APA format writing in docs as well as included in excel sheet.

Forecasting
Num pds

Moving averages - 2 period moving average
2

Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5

Demand
582569
631817
629078
652780
679072

Period 6
Period 7

665926
665926

Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute

607193
630447,5
640929
Total
Average

21885
21885
22332,5
22332,5
38143
38143
82360,5
82360,5
27453,5
27453,5
Bias
MAD

672499
Average

-6573

Squared

Abs Pct Err

478953225
498740556
1,455E+09
2,433E+09
810860743
MSE
MAPE

6573 43204329

03,48%
03,42%
05,62%
12,52%
04,17% before forecast

00,99%
after forecast period 6

Bias

MAD

MSE

MAPE

Forecasting
700000
680000
660000

Value

640000
620000
600000
580000
560000
540000
520000
1

2

3
Time

Demand

Forecast

4

5

Forecasting
Num pds

Moving averages - 3 period moving average
3

Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5

Demand
582569
631817
629078
652780
679072

Period 6
Period 7

653643,3333
653643,3333

Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute

Squared

Abs Pct Err

614488
38292
38292 1,466E+09
637891,67 41180,333 41180,333 1,696E+09
Total
79472,333 79472,333 3,162E+09
Average
39736,167 39736,167 1,581E+09
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE

05,87%
06,06%
11,93%
05,97%

661831,78 -8188,444 8188,4444 67050622
Average
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE

1,25%
after forecast period 6

Forecasting
700000
680000
660000

Valu...

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Review

Anonymous
Goes above and beyond expectations !

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