Risk Assessment Model for Oil and Gas Sensitive
infrastructure
Rachid Zagrouba1, Fatimah H. Alsinan2, Raneem S. Alghamdi3
1
rmzagrouba@iau.edu.sa, 22170004120@iau.edu.sa, 32170000573@iau.edu.sa
Abstract — The need to keep the critical assets safe,
to sustain and strengthen capabilities, particularly
established many methods dedicated for risk
when threatened by disruptions and evolutionary
identification and assessment to quantify the risk
modifications. It implies that a scheme is much more
level posed by any dangerous factor. A very
responsive, less perspective, and more powerful than
important factor that is missed widely is the
a conventional defect tolerant model. In this project,
consequences analysis and should be considered.
various models of risk assessment in gas and oil
This paper sheds light on the importance of oil and
sector have been represented. Each of which
gas infrastructures security and highlights various
employed different technique or technology. Some
risk assessment models that contribute to an
of them relied on machine learning technology,
enhanced level of critical infrastructures security.
whereas others used diverse analysis and assessment
As a contribution, a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI)
techniques. The report is organized as follows:
screening evaluation has been utilized to recognize
Section II illustrates a background about oil and gas
equipment that contributes substantially to the
industry,
system's overall Risk of Failure (RoF). Hence,
section IV compares and analyze literature reviews,
integrating the RBI comprehensive assessment
section V concludes the paper, and VII section
helps in concentrating more on the analysis
provides the references used throughout the project.
section III discusses literature review,
of higher-risk equipment. Additionally, an Expert
System has been incorporated to enhance the
efficiency of decisions made and provide guidance
for non-expert users.
II.
Background
Oil and gas have been used in lamps or
construction material for a decades before the
modern era, with the earliest drilled oil well in China
Keywords— Risk Assessment, Security, Oil and
in 347 AD. In 1847 the modern history of industry
Gas, Risk-Based Inspection, Risk of Failure.
has been started, by the discovery of Scottish
I.
Introduction
chemist James Young. He observed in Riddings coal
mine a natural seepage of petrol, and from this
In order to meet the goals and priorities of gas
seepage a light oil for lamps and a thick one for
and oil industry, the industrial cyber-infrastructure is
lubrication have been distilled. Following these
being extremely necessary as a result of disturbance
successful distillations, he experimented further
caused by external or internal defects. Therefore,
experiments that resulted in patent. In 1850 and later
there is a necessity to focus on providing a resilient
Young formed a partnership with geologist Edward
infrastructure. A resilient structure has the potential
William Binney, and later the partners formed the
first oil refinery in the world for oil-works. Oil and
5. Specify the object’s Grey category.
gas industry still blooming today despite the
competition
from
renewable
sources.
Authors in [6] presented a strategy for risk
However, industries engage a board of activities,
assessment of pipeline faults depending on machine
drilling, oil and gas production, processing, storage,
learning approaches and decision-making operations
and distribution. Those activities include a board of
using multi-criteria in order to facilitate decision-
risks such as, toxic products leakage, accidents,
makers in judging the priority of risk reduction
explosions, fires, and health risks. To avoid and
practices. The proposed solution relies on machine
mitigate such events every organization has
learning algorithms and walks through five main
developed
stages:
principles
energy
applicable
within
the
organization regard the protection of people, assets,
properties, and environment. [3][4]
1. Attribute selection: smart pig Inspection data
is presented in an Excel document with
various criteria that are chosen based on the
III.
Literature Review
III.I Machine learning-based
relationship with defects.
2. Pretreatment: it facilitates the restoration of
Oil and gas pipelines are expected to be harmed
large volumes of data regarding faults and
due to a variety of purposes [5]. A pipeline crash can
abnormalities discovered by smart pigs. It
inflict substantial socioeconomic and pollution
even recovers equipment data.
damages. A pipeline crash can inflict substantial
socioeconomic and pollution damages. Thus, it is
3. Transformation: by converting the Excel
sheet into CSV, then into an ARFF format.
necessary to determine the threat of oil and gas
4. Datamining: two classification strategies are
pipelines. Concerning the challenge of complete
implemented to the compartmentalized data
vision and gauging all susceptibility details of the oil
to produce an assumption and classification
and gas pipeline, this article utilizes the Gray Cluster
model of risk faults in a three-tier pipe: low,
approach to demonstrate a way of assessing oil and
medium, and high based on their skepticism.
gas pipelines. Gray clustering depends on the weight
4.1 Segmentation (unsupervised):
of whitening functionality. It is an approach that may
Utilizing
be utilized to split the observation indices or
segment inspection details in such
observation artifacts in a variety of groups as per the
cluster segments where each of which
gray quantity of the weight whitening functionality.
includes every fault (metal losses)
Gray Cluster evaluation process works as follows:
found upon this pipelines that are
K-means
in
order
to
1. Specify the amount of the gray group as well
identical within the same segment
as the weight whitening functionality for
and which are similar inside that
every risk index.
particular segment and which are
2. Identify every risk index's weight.
distinct to each other when compared
3. Calculate the object's grey clustering factor
with other segment’s faults.
upon its grey category.
4. Establish the object's clustering factor vector.
4.2
Classification(supervised):
Neural Networks and Decision Trees
are used to develop tendencies or
A component is a fully accessible system that
frameworks for the classification of
accepts data input from an environment, conducts an
metal loss pipelines.
action, and produces a corresponding result to the
5. Validation: results have been validated via a
environment. Such component architecture model
cross-validation test. The template is built
mainly consists of four components, as mentioned
based on n-1 segments and assessed on a
below:
single segment, such method is reconducted
1. Interface: specifies the input/output data
n times, each partition is utilized once during
streams of the component. Data is ingested
the testing phase.[6]
by the entry interface interpreted via the
element, and results are generated.
III.II Conventional-based
2. Behaviors: It is possible to define a
In alignment with Industry 4.0 goals, the
industrial
cyberinfrastructure
is
becoming
component using several behaviors. A QoS is
correlated
with
every
behavior.
The
progressively necessary as a result of disturbance
resilience manager picks the action at
caused by inner defects [7]. Therefore, there is a
runtime.
demand to focus on providing robust infrastructure.
3. Contracts: The contract sets out expectations
This study introduces a contract-based approach, in
concerning
environmental
which lightweight and contract managers are
assurances
regarding
correlated
throughout
behavior. The resilience manager shifts
cyberinfrastructure tiers. A dispersed control of
between contracts at runtime to respond to
resilience at the component tier and across tiers has
the system's fluctuations.
with
modules
been proposed in this study, as the below Figure.1
shows. [7]
the
actions
and
component's
4. Manager of Resilience: Senses defects
(through observers) and defines the (control
logic) the highest quality of behavior’s
course (response strategy). Manager of
Resilience:
Senses
defects
(through
observers). It also reacts to the defects from
various components. The below Figure.2
shows the overall structure of the layers:
Figure 1 Resilient cyber-infrastructure structure [7]
Such an approach is triggered by element
innovations that have been satisfactorily utilized by
a wide range of application models including the
utilization of specifically contract-based designs for
identifying a component's roles and expectations [7].
1. Choose the study object: identify the degree
of the analysis, specify the targeted level,
then separate the units.
2. Construct the table of FMECA: Decide every
subsystem's
function,
incident's
state,
severity, reason, and frequency by the expert.
3. Measure the weights by utilizing Analytic
Hierarchy
Process
(AHP)expert
measurement system in order to assess the
Figure 2 demonstration of the Resilience Manager component [7]
weights. AHP splits the different variables
involved in a complicated issue into similar
Authors in [8] discuss the FMECA method. The
orderly tiers to render it coordinated.
FMECA approach is a technique of analytical
4. Ascertain the “Risk Priority Number (RPN):
investigation of consistency. It provides thorough
RPN = ESR × OPR”; then split the RPN rate.
explanations of the functions, incident forms,
5. A thorough Fuzzy Assessment is employed
reasons subsystem's variety, the degree of harm,
to conduct a risk assessment in every
however, the results of its assessment are presented
subsystem, then the risk importance of the
in a qualitative manner. FMECA is an abbreviation
targeted layer is eventually calculated.[8]
for (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis)
which refers to the malfunction state, influence, and
With the aim of safety operation of polyethylene
risk assessment. The fuzzy, which is a thorough
gas pipelines of the city, a semi quantitative risk
assessment
interpret
assessment technique is proposed in [9] to limit and
quantitative explanations in such a quantitative
control the risk failure possibility and consequence
manner that helps help compensate FMECA's
severity of polyethylene gas pipelines. Over the
deficiencies. The assessment outcome of a fuzzy,
proposed risk assessment, risks pipelines can be
systematic research approach is ambiguous and
sorted,
arbitrary, therefore the FMECA approach takes
management, and decrease management of low-risk
place to address ambiguousness and vagueness
pipelines
problems in the assessment. The implementation of
pipelines safety and minimize economically losses.
the FMECA-Fuzzy Systematic Approach can
Pipelines divided in a principle that studied the
address such issues and boost the structural risk
density of population, conditions of environment and
evaluation's objectivity, rendering the assessment
the specifications of the pipelines. The pipeline
results more rational.
division results shown in Table.1.
approach
which
could
The assessment mechanism of the FMECA-Fuzzy
Thorough Evaluation System is as shown in the
following steps:
as
to
emphasis
investments.
high-risk
Furthermore,
pipelines
improve
risk assessment consist of four stages; sample the
Table 1 Pipeline division results. [9]
state, analysis of the state, correct the state and
indexes statistics. In phase one the state of
components represented, and the fluctuation of gas
source outputted and sampled from the normal
distribution. In stage two the CGPS state is identified
whether it is operating in a normal state or in a state
of contingency. Phase three is meant to reduce cost
produced due to the state of contingence by dispatch
the CGPS. Last stage is meant to assess the CGPS
The methodology taken for scoring the failure
probability consist of three parts: Quality and safety
essentials of pipelines, personnel and equipment
risk level quantitatively by the evaluation indexes
shown in Table.3 and variables illustrated in Table.4.
Table 3 Risk Calculation equations. [10]
training and damage of third party, and every part
includes numerous scoring objects. The score of
every scoring object in all parts are added up to attain
the personnel and equipment training of damage of
third party S-31, score of personnel and equipment
training S-32, and score of quality and safety
essentials of pipelines S-33. The score of failure
possibility
(S)
calculated
by
The values of risk calculated rendering to the
formula (S) shown in Table.2.
Table 4 Variable’s illustration. [10]
Table 2 Risk calculation and classification. [9]
There are dangerous factors such as outages,
The approach taken for electromagnetic risk
contingencies and failures that poses a real threat to
identification in [11] is to go first with documents
the combined natural gas system and power system
review, measure electromagnetic site, simulate
(CGPS). According to that, authors in [10] proposes
electromagnetic
a risk assessment model in which pipeline linepack
identification of electromagnetic field. The study
and tank of gas are considered. The model utilizes
conducted on 8 plants across Malaysia. One of the
Monte Carlo method in which calculates the load
measurements is low and medium frequency ranged
loss of gas and electricity. The procedure of CGPS
from 1 Hz to 100 MHz and uses the analyser of
field,
and
computerize
the
spectrum HF and NF. The other measurement is the
medium frequency that ranged from 1 MHz to 9 GHz
and uses HF, antenna of hyper log and antenna of
bionical log. The measured density values of electric
1. Approach used: the method utilized by a
study.
2. Tool: supporting tool to perform risk
assessment.
field are categorized to fall under four categories
3. Reliability: how reliable the proposed
very safe, safe, warning, and danger. The most
model is, quantitatively or qualitatively.
dominant field of electric is at 8 GHz to 9 GHz
4. Security aspect: the side such approach
frequency.
provides,
either
confidentiality,
integrity, or availability.
Throughout high throughput, the cooling process
5. Complexity: refers to the complexity of
is a must. A cooler is used for cooling to avoid
the
approach
dangerous conditions and situations that lead to
algorithm,
decrease the performance. Authors in [12] presented
features, etc.
used,
either
computational
in
its
power,
the risk assessment method Failure Mode and
6. Assessment range: the range of area that
Effects Analysis (FMEA) is discussed to identify the
such model could assess the risk of.
critical cooler units. FMEA helps to recognize the
7. Limitation: the restrain or restriction
cooler critical components, take correction actions
that result in a state of being limited.
and state safety guidelines. The iterative procedure
of FMEA affects the operation and design of the
equipment by the identification of failure modes, the
assessment of their effects, the isolation of their
prioritization and causes, and the determination of
the corrective actions. FMEA quantifies the risk of
the cooler by the evaluation of Risk Priority Number
(RPN) for its several components. The evaluation of
RPN is based on engineering decision and earlier
experience to rate every potential problem giving to
three ratings that are detection (D), severity (S) and
occurrence (O) values taken from the rating scale.
RPN is calculated by the multiplication of the ratings
D, S and O in a result ranging from 1 as the absolute
best to 1000 as the absolute worse.
IV.
Comparison and Analysis
In this section, different proposed risk
assessment models are compared and analyzed
based on some features, namely:
Table 5 Analysis and Comparison
No
[5]
Reliability
Complexity
- Grey Clustering
Approach used
- Entropy calculation
Tool/Technique
- High due to its decisionmaking capability
- Low due to the
feasibility
of
mathematical equations
-
Global coverage
-
Extremely
high
extremely low
[6]
- Machine Learning and
Analytical Hierarchy
Process
-
Multi-Criteria
Decision Methods
(MCDM)
-
-
High due to the
infeasible
interpretation
of
results
-
Medium capability of
distance coverage
-
NA
[7]
- Contract-Based
-
Observer
-
-
Medium
-
Global coverage
-
NA
-
The amount of network
traffic which must be renegotiated
[8]
- FMECA-Fuzzy
Comprehensive
Analysis
-
A multi-level risk
assessment
Expert
scoring
based on AHP
-
-
Medium
-
Global coverage
-
Very safe to
dangerous risks
very
-
The unavailability of
suitable fault data renders
predictive analysis more
challenging.
[9]
- Semi quantitative risk
assessment
-
No software tool
-
-
Low since it relays
on
the
measurements only.
-
Global coverage
-
From low to high risk
level
-
Not easy to combine
probability scores
[10]
- Monte Carlo
simulation method
- Natural gas system
and power system
-
-
Medium
-
Global coverage
-
From low to high
-
There should be a
considerable body of
empirical information to
have a reliable result.
[11]
-
Spectrum
analyzer.
-
Spectrum
analyzer bionical
log antenna, and
hyper log antenna
-
High due to rate of
correctly
classified
instances
when
conducting
the
experiment
and
algorithms used
Medium
since
it
precisely detects faults
but requires a lot of
time to monitor timing
constraint
High
since
the
drawbacks formed by
particular
person's subjective
determinations
are
reduced
High due to the ability
of
limiting
and
controlling the risk
failure possibilities.
High due to the
quantitative
calculations of the loss
of electricity and gas
using Monte Carlo
simulation method.
High due to the use of
analyzer thet gives a
high accuracy in a
short time.
- Constrained by the existence
of instruments and the
technological expertise of
measuring instruments.
More information is
necessary for the risk
assessment of pipeline
defects to improve quality
of the models
-
Low since it relays
on
the
measurements only.
-
Global coverage
-
-
Only for electromagnetic.
[12]
-
Failure Mode and
Effects Analysis
(FMEA)
-
Cooler
-
High due to the
recognition of the
critical
components
before
the
risk
quantification.
-
Medium due to the
iterative procedure.
-
Global coverage
-
Risks caused by
electromagnetic
induction, electrostatic
adiation or conduction
or coupling.
Absolute
best
to
absolute worse.
-
Limited
systems.
-
Assessment range
Risk level it detects
Limitation
to
to
cooling
Analysis:
and eliminate equipment deficiencies. The RBI
The proposed model in [5] proposed a grey
system offers various benefits to both the gas and
clustering approach for evaluating risk among an
oil. Although not the primary objective, RBI lowers
extremely long distance. Such study was conducted
repair costs by allocating inspection services
using the weighted entropy of every index. Authors
efficiently on highly risky assets,
in [5] used 17 criteria for the indexes for the entropy
protection by providing industries with a clearer
calculations. The decision-making capability of this
view
approaches helps in having an in advance
organization
precautions, resulting in decreased risk threats. Also,
concentrating on risks that influences sensitive
the ability to assess risks from long distance assists
operations.
in minimizing the risks since individuals will be
been constructed as a reaction to adjustments in
informed and thus prepared before the potential risk
safety-related
before reaches them out. However, the lack of
refinement of individual performance assessment
instruments and expertise knowledge of such aspect
was driven by a growing concentration on the effects
renders the grey clustering somehow challenging.
of operator involvement.
The model proposed in [9] reflects a high
of
their potential
activities
Risk
threats,
functioning
evaluation
infrastructure
improves
and
keeps
properly by
approaches
demands.
have
The
A. RBI Process
reliability by first studying the population density,
Currently, RBI innovation is most often
environment conditions, and pipelines specifications
employed in gas and oil industries. The data are
to reduce the economic losses. The process of having
primarily derived from refinery historical data
an overview over the pipelines then divide them
and API standard. To conduct a risk assessment of
based on a test results, then assign a failure
gas stations using RBI systems, it is crucial to
probability score that includes quality and safety
enhance the assessment approach, incorporate key
essentials of pipelines, personnel and equipment
information, review repair history and threat
training and damage of third party. Next is to assign
analysis, and create the RBI database for the stations.
a failure consequence score to every failure probability
The data deemed necessary by RBI involves the
to calculate the risk and classify the pipelines risk.
architecture
The methodology focuses on managing the high-risk
processing, data inspection, data management, and
pipelines to reduce risk causes and management
financial data. The below Figure.3 shows the flow
costs.
work of such process.
V.
and
Contribution
In the oil and gas refining industry, a pressure
vessel is a vital component of machinery. It requires
a system to resist pressure vessel malfunction. The
Risk-Based
Inspection
comprehensive
inspection
(RBI)
approach
supervision
that
process
for
is
a
infrastructure
works based
on
risk degree that exists on a system. RBI is anticipated
to offer a reasonably reliable guidance to mitigate
Figure 3 RBI workflow [13]
equipment
execution,
data
1. The architecture and equipment execution
inconsistencies in process safety management when
involve the setup, pipes as well as valves,
calculating standardized failure rates. The aspect is
overall design, pipeline model, finalization,
extracted from the outcome of an assessment of the
and approval information.
management systems that impact plant risk at an
2. Data processing contains the atmospheric
operating unit or a facility. EF is indeed an adjusting
temperature and pressure, the process stream
variable which is introduced to the generic failure
graph, the moderate speed of both the inlet
frequency in order to compensate for active
and outlet, as well as the material inspection
equipment status in such an element.
analysis of the test point.
C. Equipment Factor:
3. Data inspection contains the inspection work
plan inspection document, and historical
document.
data
covers
operational
processes and history.
data
environmental
damage
cost
as
the
well
cost of plant infrastructure.
mechanical fatigue damage, or high-temperature
hydrogen damage. Stress corrosion cracking and
factors also influence the equipment factor's
Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is a strategy that
combines online detection and equipment risk in
order to evaluate risk and control equipment
depending on the analyzed risk. Failure is described
as lack of containment in API RBI terminology, and
the Probability of Failure (POF) is calculated
utilizing a formula (1), and COF stands for
Consequence of Failure.
worth.[13]
D. Consequence’s calculations:
The consequences of failure are quantified using
(RBI) technology in two ways: the consequences of
failure region and the consequences of economic
losses. There are three types of failure area analysis
effects: explosion, harmful consequences, and
leakage of non-toxic and non-combustible medium.
(1)
Not only can the consequences of failure be used to
The likelihood is computed using Formula (2):
(2)
GFF is an abbreviation for "Generic Failure
is
corrosion cracking, external damage, brittle fracture,
external harm factors can be classified further. Other
B. RBI Quantification
which
be referred to the equipment's failure mode, which
may be one of six: thinning corrosion, stress
encompasses
as business disruption, and also the average
Frequency",
different modifiable factors. The Equipment Factor
is influenced by the Damage Factor (DF). DF should
4. Management
5. Financial
The equipment factor is made up of a number of
a
failure
probability
established for particular element kinds on the basis
of a large community of element data which
excludes the consequences of particular harm
mechanisms. FMS is a dimension that accounts for
reflect economic losses directly, but so can the
consequences of economic losses. The risk is the
result of the product of the probability of failure and
the consequence of failure (R = Failure Probability x
Failure consequence). By calculating risk, we can
assess the risk level and sort out the different types
of damage to the oil and gas infrastructure, allowing
us to refine the setup. The risk matrix is the most
straightforward way to display the risk distribution
of various pieces of equipment. The following
Table.6 shows the values for the probability level
and
consequences
categories
that
are
recommended.[13]
Table 6 Matrix of quantitative risk [13].
Figure 4 Assessment of risk
The Probability of Failure is evaluated in terms of
the oil and gas infrastructure, the degree of damage,
the area in which it is situated, and inspectability.
The Consequence of Failure is calculated based on
the following factors: due to damage level the
potential loss of bearing capacity, potential threat to
infrastructure
Table.7 illustrates the risk levels along with their
safety;
potential
growth
of
maintenance expenses.
color indication.
E. Proposed Scheme
Table 7 Risk ranks
As mentioned previously, RBI can significantly
increase the availability of a plant, reduce unplanned
downtime and costs, provide a better insight into the
status of the most important assets, improve the
equipment's reliability, provide the opportunity to
It is essential to analyze the data after an inspection
in order to recommend the next inspection interval.
It is critical to classify the type, level, cause, and
plan maintenance tasks, and ensure that current
safety regulations are followed. In the context of
developing the most appropriate risk assessment
consequences of damage to the entire oil and gas
methodology for oil and gas infrastructure, the
infrastructure and/or
model shown in the below Figure.5.
the
environment
when
assessing damage. Then, in order to recommend the
appropriate level of action, a priority number is
determined via the following equation (3).
(3)
In fact, the higher priority number, the more likely
an immediate response or action is needed. The
below diagram Figure.4 depicts the considerations
that must be made when determining the likelihood
of oil and gas infrastructure failure.
which the inspection criteria are defined. If the risk
remains high or continues to grow, a full analysis is
conducted in the level of parts. As it is a detailed
analysis, it requires each part data and may require
producing detailed inspection plans. The Table.8
below demonstrate the extent of inspection that
should be taken foe each identified level of risk.
Table 8 Risk inspection levels [14].
Advice
Non-expert
user
Figure 5 Proposed architecture.
A screening analysis starts at the system level by
collecting the relevant data. The initial data collected
can be re-used, and for the next evaluation, the data
collection process is kept to a bare minimum,
allowing the focus to be on the changed data, which
results in a significant reduction in the number of
hours spent on it. Screening analysis is the process
in which hazard is evaluated and risk is analyzed
upon input information. If the risk is low then no
need for a further analysis, it moves to general
inspection and correction maintenance.
Such
maintenance is done regularly based on the nature of
the risk and equipment. Whereas if the risk is
medium or high risk, further screening attempts are
made on the level of circuit of corrosion. The
corrosion circuit reflects a typical corrosion
environment and construction materials, and it
involves all equipment inside the loop that is
susceptible
to
the
same
corrosion/damage
mechanisms and degradation rates. Within this level
of inspection, medium risk threats and acceptable
ones can be proceeded to an inspection planning in
In traditional RBI programs, the evaluations are kept
to the staff judgments only. In order to enhance the
risk assessment and decision-making processes,
Expert System is proposed to be integrated with the
RBI. Expert system stimulates the expert’s behavior
and judgments. It gathers relevant information from
its knowledge base and interprets it in context of the
posed problem. The knowledge base data is added
essentially by experts in the oil and gas domain, and
thus, it aspires to preserve human expert expertise.
However, it is used by non-experts to expand their
knowledge and get advice. Expert systems record a
high-performance level, high responsiveness, as well
as high reliability. Expert systems capable to
contribute to advising, assistance in decision making
processes, instructions, demonstrations, driving
additional necessary data for the risk assessment of
solutions, and proposing alternatives whenever
pipeline deficiencies, such as: geometric flaws data
needed. The recommended strategy to be used with
like coating, recesses,
RBI is the forward chaining strategy, in which it
safety data, which will help in having more clear
follows a chain of conditions and derivations, and
vision of risks, resulting in better security controls.
the result is then deduced after all facts and rules
have been considered. Then, it sorts them before
concluding about the best solution. Forward
chaining strategy is illustrated in the following
diagram Figure.6.
VII.
ecological, and catholic
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VI.
Conclusion and Future Work
Computing,
Mathematics
and
Engineering
From the various discussed models of risk
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