Discussion 1: Seasonal Cycles in Crime The attached McDowall et al. article analyses the nature of seasonal crime rate fluctuations among U.S. cities. - Based on this article, what do you believe is responsible for seasonal crime rate fluctuations? - How has your thinking about crime changed after reading this article? Answer these questions by 11:59 PM, Feb 13 and provide responses to at least two other classmates by 11:59 PM, Feb 15. Your initial response should be at least 200 words in length; responses to at least two other students’ postings should be around 50 words (each). SDSU Library link: https://csusdsu.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/fulldisplay?docid=cdi_springer_primary_2011_1 0940_28_3_9145&context=PC&vid=01CALS_SDL:01CALS_SDL&lang=en&search_sco pe=MyInst_and_CI&adaptor=Primo%20Central&tab=Everything&query=any,contains,S easonal%20Cycles%20in%20Crime,%20and%20Their%20Variability,AND&sortby=rank &facet=rtype,include,articles,lk&mode=advanced&offset=0&pcAvailability=true (Links to an external site.) Student#1 The study of season crime rates is an important as well as interesting. The article better elaborated on how the different season offer or present different activities, and as a result different crimes. My previous thinking was that crimes happened more during winter and summer because people were off and maybe more cranky due to the weather. However, the article better explains that it is not a particular attachment to mood per say, as it is an attachment to various opportunities which thus create a seasonality of crime. Despite all of this the author of the article is clear on the fact that certain crimes do remain constant such as assault and homicide this is important because it demonstrates that not everything is contingent on seasonality. It allows for us to better understand the concept of opportunity that may arise with the various seasons. Furthermore, the author then examples that an example of this would be the fact that robbery and car thefts are more frequent in the months of December and June. This to me makes sense. During this time more people are on vacation and may not be home which would present an individual with the perfect opportunity commit particular crimes against property. I believe overall that the rates of crime during the seasons fluctuate due to external factors such as weather changes as well as the frequency in which an individual is engaged in social gatherings. This article allowed me to better understand how the correlation between crime and the seasons extends much farther than just emotions, and instead relates to the presentation of different crime opportunities. This can also be explained by the Routine Activities Theory which better reenforces the concept of opportunity especially in the summer when individuals may be home less. Student #2 I believe that there are definitely seasonal functions when it comes to crime. To my discretion, I would believe that one example that may occur would be during the holiday season. During that specific season, there are people that tend to be in their feelings more than usual. The simple reason being is that I might feel alone, depressed, or even angry. This could be because they are no longer with their loved ones, or they feel lonely. In general, there are people that could be feeling grief and they feel angry, hurt. It is around these times that I believe people may feel the need to look for an outlet to let out their anger and hate. The author made a clear point that two reports of violent crimes of assault and homicide had ultimately remained constant and repetitive. The author also states that weather could also cause people to act out. Especially with the heat, it could cause people to be a little more aggravated and inpatient. The thing is that they might feel like they are not comfortable with themselves, so they could also use that to release anger. It is for this reason that I believe that the way people feel could definitely have an impact on what they do. I feel like it changed my mind in the way that I now realize that the weather could truly have an impact, which is something that I never thought about. Discussion 2: Promotion of Female Police Officers 33 unread replies.33 replies. In the literature review section, the attached Morabito and Shelley article provides an overview of the explanations why women do not rise through the ranks of police organizations. - What are these main constraints deterring female officers from advancement? - Based on your own experience, do you believe that these factors are different from the obstacles to promotion women face in other kind of (non-police) organizations? Why? Answer these questions by 11:59 PM, March 13 and provide responses to at least two other classmates by 11:59 PM, March 15. Your initial response should be at least 200 words in length; responses to at least two other students’ postings should be around 50 words (each). SDSU Library link: https://csusdsu.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/fulldisplay?docid=cdi_crossref_primary_10_117 7_1557085118763104&context=PC&vid=01CALS_SDL:01CALS_SDL&lang=en&searc h_scope=MyInst_and_CI&adaptor=Primo%20Central&tab=Everything&query=any,cont ains,Constrained%20Agency%20Theory%20and%20Leadership:%20A%20New%20Pe rspective%20to%20Understand%20How%20Female%20Police%20Officers%20Overco me%20the%20Structural%20and%20Social%20Impediments%20to%20Promotion,AND &sortby=rank&facet=rtype,include,articles,lk&mode=advanced&offset=0&pcAvailability= true (Links to an external site.) Student #1 Historically law enforcement has been a patriarchal organization in every major city within America and continues to extol that unsavory characteristic today. Addressing this social inequity is no easy task for women since policing has been, and very surely now still is, considered a male dominated field. The road to opportunity has been met with many insurmountable barriers and career paths are still far and few between for women, even today. I believe the most paramount barrier to women is the stereotyping that continues to be perpetrated by men in law enforcement; agency wide. Secondary, but no less important, is the refusal of police leadership in mentoring or fostering an environment of advancement for women. Management is steadfast with its attitude towards women relegating them to entry level positions such as a patrol officer or administration. The author(s) of this article had taken the laborious task of assembling a group of women to obtain their personnel views on their combined experiences. The results were very telling. I came away with the opinion that the only real and tangible obstacle facing women in their pursuit of law enforcement careers is the objectionable attitudes of the men who hold leadership positions. Period. Another deterring barrier is that of familial support. The author of this article gives anonymous quotations of women in various police positions and quotes a few who mention the overbidding importance of being accepted. More specifically, securing the approval of loved ones whether they are spouses, parents or even children of age. To them, and undoubtedly the majority of women in law enforcement, having the support of family is key to a successful career in policing. With regards to women facing the same type of discrimination in non-police type careers, I believe the prevalence is less so. Granted there is still the proverbial “glass ceiling” in the private sector. The author mentions this phenomenon as the “brass ceiling” when referring to law enforcement. The difference, in my opinion, is the propensity for this open bias. By that I mean there are many more safeguards and remedies in place for women in the private sector today. In the not so distant past pejorative comments were tolerated and even expected from male colleagues with regards to women working alongside men. Women were treated as subordinates. Now, any misconduct or off color remarks are tantamount to harassment and sexual discrimination. These offenses are met with swift action by the majority of employers today since there is an overriding attitude of zero tolerance in the contemporary workforce. Women in non police careers are now afforded a greater opportunity to advance everywhere. We’ve only to look at the number of senior management, VP and CEOs that pilot some of the largest US and multi-national corporations worldwide. Yes. In this instance, progress has been made but there is still an abundance of work needed for women to gain an equal footing with men in the competitive world of law enforcement. Student#2 While there may be a multitude of reasons holding female officers back from promotion, there appear to be a few main contributing factors. The “leaking pipeline” of female officers staying away from promotion leaving policing before the opportunity presents itself has deep roots (Morabito & Shelley, 288). There is a plateau in the hiring of female officers which is making it even harder for advancement through the ranks of the departments (Morabito & Shelley, 288). Some of the main contributions toward the lack of female promotions can be attributed to “systemic social and institutional barriers” (Morabito & Shelley, 288), which in itself spawns from patriarchy. These female officers are sometimes perceived as less capable than their male counterparts (Morabito & Shelley, 288), and this obviously has negative effects on their chance for promotion. Even if a female officer is a qualified candidate for promotion, they may remove themselves from selection “because of child care concerns” (Morabito & Shelley, 289). Another factor that contributes to the lack of promotions is that since women are far less likely to be assigned to portfolio-building assignments (Morabito & Shelley, 291). To overcome these obstacles, female officers need opportunistic events to occur, or in other words, “Their ability to obtain promotion comes in the form of kairotic moments where conditions align to create opportunity” (Morabito & Shelley, 305). Outside of our past family business, I’ve only worked in one other job, so I have to admit that I have less experience in the workplace. In my own personal experience, I have yet to see critical impediments to women in the workplace; I’ve volunteered for a department headed by a female Sheriff, worked both my jobs under a female boss or manager, and have gone to school filled with female heads of departments and even a female president. I am unsure if my experience is an exception. But, I think it is plain to see that women face obstacles impeding promotion in all fields due to the patriarchal organization of our society. The “glass ceiling” appears to occur in most settings, whether it's intended or not. 763104 research-article2018 FCXXXX10.1177/1557085118763104Feminist CriminologyMorabito and Shelley Article Constrained Agency Theory and Leadership: A New Perspective to Understand How Female Police Officers Overcome the Structural and Social Impediments to Promotion Feminist Criminology 2018, Vol. 13(3) 287­–308 © The Author(s) 2018 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav https://doi.org/10.1177/1557085118763104 DOI: 10.1177/1557085118763104 journals.sagepub.com/home/fcx Melissa S. Morabito1 and Tara O’Connor Shelley2 Abstract Substantial research has examined both the barriers preventing women from entering and flourishing in policing and the coping mechanisms used to adapt to the gendered institution of policing. However, there is scant research that examines the mechanisms by which some women successfully navigate the police bureaucracy. Drawing from in-depth, semi-structured interviews of 47 female officers from 30 law enforcement agencies across seven states, we apply Constrained Agency Theory as a means to identify and understand how women capitalize on conditions and opportunities to advance and/or gain promotion in gendered organizations. The purpose of our research is to explore the efficacy of this theoretical framework for the study of women in policing. Results suggest that Constrained Agency Theory offers a promising way of understanding how female officers experience and utilize opportunities and conditions for advancement across a variety of agencies, generations, and organizational cultures. Keywords policing, women, women as professionals in the CJS, constrained agency, promotion, gender, law enforcement 1University 2Tarleton of Massachusetts Lowell, USA State University, Stephenville, TX, USA Corresponding Author: Tara O’Connor Shelley, Institute for Criminal Justice Leadership and Public Policy, Institute on Violence Against Women and Human Trafficking, School of Criminology, Criminal Justice and Strategic Studies, Tarleton State University, 6777 Camp Bowie Blvd., Suite 455, Stephenville, TX 76402-0000, USA. Email: Shelley@Tarleton.Edu 288 Feminist Criminology 13(3) Scholars recognize that the percentage of women in police organizations is not representative of the communities they serve (Morabito & Shelley, 2015). Decades of gender discrimination have stymied the robust presence of women in leadership positions in American policing. Moreover, historic patterns of exclusion have led to problems of attrition whereby women in frontline positions either opt out of the promotion process or leave policing altogether before they can advance to the upper echelons—a trend referred to as a leaking pipeline (Bailyn, 2003). Both the small numbers of women in policing and the smaller numbers of women in leadership positions exemplify the leaking pipeline. In 1972, women comprised as little as 2% of sworn officers, and current estimates indicate that women comprise only 11.3% of all police officers (Hickman & Reeves, 2006). The employment data further indicate that the hiring and retention of women has stalled (Lonsway et al., 2002), which greatly reduces the likelihood of women advancing through the ranks. In 2001,1 women comprised 7.3% of top command positions in large agencies and only 3.8% in smaller agencies (Lonsway et al., 2002). Of central concern is the fact that more than half of all police agencies that responded to the survey reported that no women held high-level positions (Lonsway et al., 2002). These employment trends suggest the presence of systemic social and institutional barriers that negatively affect the retention and advancement of women in policing. Although valuable scholarship explores how women cope in this male-dominated field (Martin, 1979; Rabe-Hemp, 2008b), little is known about how women successfully2 navigate the gendered police hierarchy (e.g., Acker, 1990) to access the formal (e.g., training) and informal opportunities (e.g., mentorship) that are necessary to earn promotion, advancement, and status. Because these opportunities are often hidden or outright denied to female officers, it is worthwhile to learn from those who were able to access and capitalize on these opportunities even though the odds were stacked against them. The dominant model for “how to promote” in policing is one whereby an officer studies, works hard on patrol, gains notice from commanding or senior officers, and eventually advances to promotion due to hard work, individual efforts, and social networking through unofficial channels.3 In reality, this narrative is highly gendered whereby male officers benefit from the patriarchy of the traditional police organization. Male officers are inherently believed to be tough enough to do the hard work, are considered to be good colleagues and partners, and have easy access to mentors due to selective priming practices of senior male officers (Balkin, 1988; Franklin, 2007). These beliefs and practices constrain the opportunities of female officers who then have to work harder to access these opportunities, often due to unfair assumptions about limited capacity and/or diminished capacity (Shelley, Morabito, & TobinGurley, 2011). Thus, the existing narrative for advancement in policing does not adequately explain the totality of the experiences of the female officers who seek to be promoted. Constrained Agency Theory (CAT), (Herndl & Licona, 2007) provides a potential framework to increase our understanding of the experiences of female officers because it can elucidate the conditions and opportunities necessary for advancement within police agencies. Prior research indicates the theory is relevant for numerous workplaces Morabito and Shelley 289 including the political arena (Blair et al., 2013) and farming (Wolford, 2011). The current research seeks to (a) explore the conditions and opportunities for advancement and promotion, and (b) illustrate the utility of CAT in understanding the experiences of women in police agencies. Literature Review In her book, Breaking the Brass Ceiling: Women Police Chiefs and Their Paths to the Top, Schulz (2004) collected the stories of 96 women who achieved command positions in policing. She examined their paths to success and discussed their struggles to achieve promotion and advance in a male-dominated organization. All of the subjects selected and interviewed by Schulz had achieved a promotion in their police organization. Although Schulz has singlehandedly increased our knowledge about the experiences and histories of female chiefs in the United States, this analysis does not consider the experiences of those women who strive for promotion but are unable to achieve it or who self-exclude from the process due to impediments associated with gendered police organizations or for other personal reasons. The bulk of research on women in policing has attempted to tease out why women do not rise through the ranks of police organizations as easily as their male peers do. The existing research points to both internal and external constraints that deter female officers from advancement. In his study of a large Midwestern police department, Whetstone (2001) found that the majority of qualified female officers did not engage in the promotion process at all. Rather, they removed themselves from consideration for promotion. He noted that female officers largely did not take the promotional exam because of child care concerns (Whetstone, 2001), as a promotion often results in a new shift assignment that might be difficult to mesh with family responsibilities. Women must balance the new responsibilities associated with a promotion with their already heavy domestic workload without institutional support (Agocs, Langan, & Sanders, 2015; Schulze, 2010). Another reason to eschew promotion is due to concerns associated with token status in management positions. Archbold and Schulz (2008) found that male supervisors were advising female officers to seek promotion solely because they were women, not because they could be effective leaders. As a result, many female officers elected not to take promotional exams and remain in patrol to avoid negative attention within the agency. There are other explanations as well. Opportunities for promotion are often limited for women within police agencies. Women can be confined within “glass walls” (Sneed, 2007) in organizations—limited to positions that directly deal with women and children in the community. When promoted, female sworn officers may serve as sexual assault investigators, as child abuse liaisons, or on human trafficking task forces. These are not the coveted police positions that lead to advancement and power (i.e., special weapons and tactics [SWAT], homicide, and gangs) but rather result in a permanent freeze where women spend their entire careers in the same role, albeit an important and essential one. As a result, the lack of diverse opportunities and experiences within the organization likely curtail advancement for many female officers. In 290 Feminist Criminology 13(3) larger civil service agencies, merit and standardized testing processes control promotions to the point of captain but after the rank of captain, the promotion of command staff often occurs at the pleasure of the chief (Van Maanen, 1984). Women have also faced challenges from their male colleagues when trying to advance in policing (Martin, 1978, 1979, 1989). Male officers have long resisted women joining police organizations, and the work of female officers has been devalued (Balkin, 1988; Franklin, 2007; Herbert, 2001; Prokos & Padavic, 2002). Resistance increased when policewomen shifted from stereotypically feminine duties involving children to more traditional police responsibilities—women were even required to patrol in skirts and carry their guns in hidden bags to appear ladylike (Franklin, 2007; Heidensohn, 1992). In the 1970s, as women increasingly entered traditional police positions, performance studies and community relations surveys assessed their contributions (Hunt, 1990). This research revealed that women performed policing duties as well as their male counterparts (see Balkin, 1988; Schulz, 1995) and that female officers were publicly regarded as equally capable and competent in carrying out police functions (see Balkin, 1988). In addition, women were found to be better communicators and more likely to dissolve and diffuse potentially volatile situations through communication as opposed to responding with violence. Despite the aptitude that women display for policing, a relatively small percentage of female officers secure promotions (Lonsway et al., 2002). There may be several reasons for this trend. Women may self-select out of the process entirely due to beliefs about their own performance, or because of structural impediments and their experiences as tokens in policing. Evidence suggests that female officers believe that they are as good as male police officers—or rather, that they are better at more “feminized aspects of policing” (Rabe-Hemp, 2009). Rabe-Hemp (2008b) provides a foundation for understanding token experiences and the coping mechanisms utilized by female officers to gain acceptance in maledominated organizations. Specifically, she documented several coping mechanisms, including accepting segregation into the stereotypically feminine, paperwork-dominated aspects of the job (Garcia, 2003), increasing their education, or connecting with others outside of policing. These coping mechanisms are crucial to understanding how women address their token status within gendered organizations. They are presented, however, as individual behaviors—reactions to the police organization and specific circumstances. Coping mechanisms may work under some conditions but are less effective in others—even for the same officer at different points in her career. We seek to understand how women leverage these types of coping mechanisms with conditions and opportunities for promotion in this challenging environment. CAT provides a frame work from which we explore how women police officers navigate their careers. Theoretical Foundation CAT stems from rhetorical and poststructuralist theory (Herndl & Licona, 2007). While it is not specifically a feminist theory, we examine its usefulness in understanding the Morabito and Shelley 291 experiences of women in policing. CAT is a persuasive theory of how power operates and how social change (or the reaffirmation of the status quo) happens. Other scholars draw from this theory to explain the experiences of women in male-dominated arenas. For example, researchers apply CAT to explain how women traverse the political workplace (Blair et al., 2013) and farming (Wolford, 2011). It has also been used to enhance understanding of the adoption and implementation of policies that affect women, such as marriage and maternity policies (Petersen & Moeller, 2016) or infant-feeding recommendations (Koerber, 2013). Agency is a crucial part of the theory. Agency becomes a question of how women can make their voices heard and achieve political legitimacy so that they can reconstitute their public images to obtain influence. Herndl and Licona (2007, p. 137) argue that agency is not a fixed individual attribute or power but rather something that is variable over time with “people and groups positioned differently within it” (see Bordo, 1998). In other words, agency is not something an individual can have, gain, or lose; it consists of contextualized opportunities for action. By operationalizing agency in this way, Herndl and Licona (2007) change how agency is related to authority. Authority in policing resides with command staff and particularly with the chief—the decision makers within the organization, most often White men (Jordan, Fridell, Faggiani, & Kubu, 2009). Herndl and Licona maintain that authority can act as a “potential restraint and potential resource to agency” though it tends to constrain agency more often than it offers resources, particularly in institutionalized settings. For example, preventing female officers from joining special units (or failing to encourage them to join) is an exercise of authority that restrains them from developing the portfolio necessary for promotion. Conversely, clearing barriers to these special assignments can be an authoritative resource to agency. A central idea of CAT is that change is not possible unless individuals take advantage of “slippage” or the “intersection” between agency and authority that occurs in space and time. Herndl and Licona (2007) refer to these as “kairotic moments”—those where marginalized populations can experience opportune moments (i.e., Kairos) that “allow subjects to act to change or reproduce social, institutional, and discursive practices” (p. 134). The slippage or intersection between authority and agentive opportunities can then constrain while also open possibilities. This is the crux of CAT because people occupy different agentive and authoritative spaces across time. Therefore, while a condition or opportunity might result in the earning of a promotion for one police officer, the exact same opportunity may be inconsequential for another officer. The literature already established that law enforcement positions female officers differently; however, CAT suggests that the ability of female officers to obtain promotions is dynamic and not static-opportunities change based on individual characteristics as well as the attributes of the organization. As such, we seek to identify the conditions and opportunities that give rise to these kairotic moments that result in the advancement and legitimacy of women in policing. More specifically, we address the following research questions: Research Question 1: What are the conditions and opportunities that are associated with kairotic moments for women in policing over the duration of a police career? 292 Feminist Criminology 13(3) Research Question 2: How do these kairotic moments disrupt the dominant narrative in policing, change institutionalized practices that persistently exclude women, and result in promotion? Research Question 3: Is CAT useful for enhancing our understanding of women’s experiences in policing? Data and Method We utilize a biographical approach to elicit detailed narratives from women regarding their experiences over the span of their policing career. Forty-seven women were interviewed about their entry into the profession, their experiences as sworn police officers (both positive and negative), and the transition to retirement, if applicable. The literature informed the development of a semistructured interview guide and focused on a number of broad themes, including their pathways and the values that led them to police work, their experiences in policing from the application process to their current position or status, and their career trajectories. Although we sought to understand specific impediments or opportunities the participants experienced over the course of their law enforcement career, we did not begin our initial research with a specific theory in mind, preferring instead a grounded approach. Throughout the interview process, participants had the freedom to discuss anything they felt was relevant for us to further understand their experiences. We used a snowball sampling approach to identify as many study participants as possible, beginning with two state law enforcement associations: Rocky Mountain Women in Law Enforcement and the Massachusetts Association of Women in Law Enforcement. We sent each organization a formal letter explaining the purpose of the study and a request to assist us in identifying women who might be interested in participating in the research. This assistance came in the form of website and newsletter advertising, meeting announcements, and mailings. Individual contacts with members of these agencies led to the development of a snowball sample as participants suggested friends and colleagues to be interviewed. In the end, the women in our sample served in 30 law enforcement agencies across seven regionally diverse states (Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia) in various levels of law enforcement, including campus, municipal, county, and state agencies. Respondents’ years of service ranged from 2 to 35, with a mean of 17 years. Respondents ranged in age from 26 to 62 years, with a mean age of 46 years. They began their career at ages between 21 and 40 years, with a mean age of 27 years. The overwhelming majority of respondents reported patrol officer as highest rank achieved (21 respondents) or the equivalent,4 with one trooper and two sheriff’s deputies. There were two corporals, eight sergeants, one lieutenant, one colonel, one major, one captain, one detective, one commander, one deputy commissioner, one deputy chief, and one chief deputy. Most notably, there were three chiefs and one interim chief in the sample. Nine of our respondents had retired from their agencies. Respondents primarily worked for municipal agencies; however, six were employed by sheriff’s Morabito and Shelley 293 departments, five by university police departments, and two by state agencies. All but three respondents identified as Caucasian, with one African American, one Asian, and one Latina officer. Respondent information is included in Table 1. Based on this sample, we cannot speak to the applicability of our findings beyond the context of women in our sample—something that is not unusual for research intended to further theory development (Carbone-Lopez & Miller, 2012). Following these recruitment efforts, we interviewed participants by phone or faceto-face depending upon the preference of the interviewee. Interviews occurred between 2009 and 2012. As these interviews involved coverage of a number of themes and a life history of each participant, they lasted from 1 to 8 hours and were conversational in approach. Longer interviews occurred with women who were retired (or nearing retirement), whereas women relatively new to the profession had shorter interviews. We recorded and transcribed each of the interviews for subsequent analysis. The data presented here consist of excerpts from these interviews gathered from representative quotations. We redacted all references to specific agencies, geographical locations, and any other information that might identify the participants to honor our promise of anonymity to our participants. Analysis Strategy The transcripts generated from these interviews constituted the data for this article. The coding and analysis process followed three main steps. We used a process of “open coding” on all interview transcripts to identify emerging themes and concerns. It quickly became apparent that one of the major themes was that some women were able to navigate the promotional process whereas others were not successful, not interested, or lacked empowerment to apply at all. At this point, we utilized a focused approach (Charmaz, 2000) based on this emerging theme, whereupon it became clear that the women in our diverse sample were experiencing opportune moments as described by Herndl and Licona’s (2007) CAT. Subsequently, we created a coding scheme derived from CAT that included identification of the barriers to employment, advancement, and promotion, and the accompanying conditions and opportunities that gave rise to these pathways for women in our sample, the latter of which is the focus of this article. The next phase of our process centered on the development of conceptual (“nodal”) relationships using NVivo data analysis software, where coders read interviews for the conditions and opportunities that emerged for kairotic moments to influence advancement and promotion. After refining these categories, and coding interviews for conditions, opportunities, and kairotic movements, participant quotes that represented each category were extracted (Padgett, 1998). Several analytical approaches (i.e., descriptive and analytic) were used to illuminate the conditions and opportunities that combine to create a kairotic moment. First, we coded the types of conditions and opportunities experienced by women in policing and separated these into groups of both negative and positive. Next, we tracked and analyzed how these kairotic moments spanned the career trajectories of the women in the sample. We also took note of how the women were able to disrupt exclusionary and institutionalized practices to obtain promotion 294 Feminist Criminology 13(3) Table 1. Respondent Demographics. Current age (years) Age at which Years of respondent police entered policing (years) service 28 51 48 32 26 54 26 47 56 40 53 58 39 23 27 26 24 22 39 22 32 24 20 32 23 22 5 23 22 8 4 15 4 15 31 16 21 33 16 54 29 48 57 54 60 44 42 49 49 41 61 55 46 29 30 25 33 54 48 62 61 59 46 39 50 34 59 47 23 23 21 40 28 36 38 21 21 23 26 30 22 21 22 22 20 21 26 35 24 31 25 26 23 24 40 Race Level of education Highest rank achieved Agency employment Master’s Bachelor’s Master’s Some college Bachelor’s Associate's Master’s Master’s Master’s Master’s Associate's Master’s Master’s Patrol Patrol Sergeant Patrol Patrol Patrol Patrol Sergeant Colonel Major Patrol Interim chief Patrol Municipal Municipal Municipal University Municipal University Municipal University Municipal Municipal University Municipal Municipal 22 Asian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian African American Caucasian Master’s Municipal 24 24 31 20 16 7 6 27 18 20 26 16 7 8 2 7 32 26 35 15 25 14 14 24 10 34 7 Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Hispanic Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Bachelor’s Bachelor’s Associate’s Associate’s Master’s Master’s Bachelor’s Master’s Master’s Doctorate Bachelor’s Bachelor’s Bachelor’s Some college Bachelor’s Bachelor’s Bachelor’s Master’s Some college Bachelor’s High school Bachelor’s Some college Some college Some college Master’s Associate’s Deputy commissioner Police officer Sergeant Deputy Captain Sergeant Sergeant Patrol Chief Chief Sergeant Corporal Patrol Patrol Deputy Deputy Corporal Patrol Sergeant Sergeant Patrol Patrol Patrol Detective Commander Patrol Chief Patrol University Municipal Sheriff Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal University Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Sheriff Sheriff State Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal (continued) 295 Morabito and Shelley Table 1. (continued) Current age (years) Age at which Years of respondent police entered policing (years) service 56 30 48 58 40 43 31 22 21 22 22 21 24 8 2 15 18 7 Race Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Caucasian Level of education Juris doctor Bachelor’s Some college Master’s Master’s Some college Highest rank achieved Patrol Trooper Deputy Chief deputy Lieutenant Patrol Agency employment Municipal State Sheriff Sheriff Sheriff Municipal Table 2. Common Conditions and Opportunities that Can Result in Kairotic Moments. Condition Media Role model Civilian position Military background Female colleagues in the academy Family support Opportunity Example Television shows created Respondents watch shows with interest in becoming a police female sworn officers that create the officer possibility of policing. Influenced to apply for police Women have exposure to police officer position officers in childhood either through family or experience with the criminal justice system. Social networking opportunity Respondents worked as dispatchers, to meet police officers jail matrons,a or community service officers without considering that they and learn about the job to could be sworn officers until they had determine suitability the chance to see the work up close and assess their own readiness. Provided credibility in This training gave women exposure academy, field training, and to a similar male-dominated and patrol work hierarchical structure. In some ways, it signaled to male colleagues who would be reliable in organization as well as the field. This experience was near universal for female respondents who obtained SWAT experience. Peer support to graduate from Female colleagues provide emotional the academy support in a primarily male setting but also assisted one another in their own areas of strength. Freedom and encouragement Family support came from parents, to apply for promotion with siblings, and spouses. It affected not accompanying shift change only the decision to apply but also to think about promotion. (continued) 296 Feminist Criminology 13(3) Table 2. (continued) Condition Champion Female leader Previous connections Education Lawsuit filed and/ or resolved Opportunity Example Encourage to apply for and earn promotion These internal supporters helped women decide when and what to apply for within the agency. This included not only promotions but also lateral transfers and certifications that might be beneficial for career. Made the promotion process Female leaders gave the impression appear fair and possible that the process was fair and impartial inspiring female respondents to apply. Gave credibility to apply for Some respondents knew people in positions or promotions politics or policing prior to joining the department who could vouch for them as people in the promotion process. Increased the credentials and While education is not necessary for skills for career advancement advancement in many agencies, it and promotion serves as an additional qualification that makes it difficult for command staff to ignore the quality of female candidates. Cleared barriers for In some cases, filing a lawsuit was enough promotion and change in to show that the female officer was assignment serious about improving conditions (e.g., eliminating sexual harassment) within the agency. In other cases, clearing of barriers did not occur until the lawsuit was resolved. Note. SWAT = special weapons and tactics. aIt was surprising to learn that this term was still used in some agencies into the 1980s. and/or achieve prestigious assignments with increased responsibilities. Finally, we examined whether CAT enhances the understanding of how women in policing traverse police organizations. The findings presented below focused on common kairotic moments represented in the data. Findings We organize the presentation of our findings by each of our research questions and then map the specific kairotic moments of an exemplary respondent to understand the promotional experiences of one woman navigating a hierarchical and male-dominated police organization. Morabito and Shelley 297 Conditions, Opportunities, and Kairotic Moments Because we were interested in how women were able to navigate hierarchical police organizations, we asked questions about not only their career paths but about other events that were simultaneously occurring in their lives. These events, situations, or circumstances often created the conditions needed for the respondent to apply for a new position or opportunity within her agency. Sometimes the respondent had little control over the “condition”—meaning that it was something that happened to her. For other respondents, creating a particular situation was entirely her own doing. Table 2 details the most commonly cited conditions and coordinating opportunities that allowed for kairotic moments as described by Herndl and Licona. For each condition and subsequent opportunity, an example is included for illustration. As Table 2 suggests, conditions and opportunities that lead to kairotic moments can subsequently disrupt the dominant patriarchal narrative of promotion and advancement in policing. Entrance into policing.5. Four of the respondents in the sample cited exposure to television in their adolescent years as the mechanism sparking them to apply for a sworn position. Television shows such as Charlie’s Angels, Cagney & Lacey, and Police Woman offered a previously unseen representation of women in policing. Without these television shows, it is possible that some of these women would have picked a different career field and not become police officers. Media was not the only driver for respondents to enter into policing. Previous military experience and engaging in civilian work influenced more than half of the sample to become police officers. Two women in the sample came into policing from the military, and both reported that those experiences were beneficial in the academy, patrol, and field training. Twenty-six women in the sample took a number of civilian routes into policing— making this the most common pathway into policing for our sample. Respondents worked as dispatchers, record clerks, victim advocates, community service officers (CSOs), animal control officers, seasonal park rangers, and one worked as a jail matron.6 Through these nonsworn positions, respondents got a closer look at the actual job tasks and responsibilities of sworn officers and were able to imagine themselves in that role. By serving in a nonsworn position, some respondents learned that in fact they did have the skills and abilities to be a police officer. One retired municipal captain told us, “If I could be a dispatcher, I could do just about anything.” These civilian positions had the added benefit of giving some respondents credibility once they had entered into a sworn position. One retired municipal sergeant noted, I was luckier probably than most females . . . because I had been a dispatcher before. I already had some of the rapport with some of them. They knew me, they knew how I worked . . . I already had some credibility. Graduating from the academy. Some respondents related that female colleagues and access to female trainers7 were helpful conditions for successfully completing the academy. They explained that having other women in their academy class was a comfort and a support. Specifically, other women offered general collegiality and practical 298 Feminist Criminology 13(3) information for passing through the academy. For example, one respondent told us that a female colleague who was a lateral transfer was able to share her knowledge of firearms with recruits who had no experience with weapons. Respondents identified female trainers as an important resource for support as they symbolized hope for a path forward. A municipal captain who had struggled in the academy told us how a female trainer influenced her experience: The one that stuck out to me—she was so bold—who had the most effect on me, I believe her rank was, I want to say captain or something at a large agency. She was just bigger than life, professional, straightforward, and I said, “Wow!” Her presence, her attitude, her rank, the way she held herself—I thought, “That’s what I want to be.” So she had the greatest influence. This female captain (and trainer) signaled that promotion was possible for women in this agency. Meeting her while in the academy gave the respondent an inspirational vision for her own future as a female in a male-dominated field. Navigating the promotional process. To successfully obtain a promotion within a police agency, the opportunity must first be available—meaning that there must be an opening. Opportunity for advancement even when a position is open is not always possible, however, without optimum conditions in place. Respondents noted a number of conditions that helped create the kairotic moment necessary for promotion. Most often, our respondents reported that family support, a female chief or role model, mentorship, and previous connections were positive conditions that led to the creation of this moment. Almost all respondents noted that family support was crucial in their decision to apply for and accept promotion. This translated into support from parents, siblings, and spouses. Respondents told us about parents shining their uniform shoes or driving them to work for difficult shifts. This support signaled to respondents that their families believed that they could be successful. Support from partners or spouses, however, emerged as a condition more crucial for women to seize opportunities for promotion, as many respondents who successfully promoted told us that they were encouraged to study for exams and to apply for available promotions. For women with children, support from a partner or spouse was particularly central to the decision to apply for promotion. Promotions are usually accompanied by a shift change (most often to graveyard), and each move resulted in the need for new child care arrangements and renegotiating their household duties with their spouse or partner. This support is not always easy to come by and is even trickier when young children are involved, given the gendered division of labor in the home historically (Hochschild, 1989) that persists even today (Horne, Johnson, Galambos, & Krahn, 2017). One municipal patrol officer who was at the top of the list for promotion to sergeant told us about the difficulty of arranging child care: We actually went through a period when I was first hired where we transferred my son in the parking lot of where [my husband] worked. He was working days, I was working Morabito and Shelley 299 nights and swings, and we’d transfer the car seat and the baby in the middle of the parking lot. I think it was good that he was not in law enforcement, because I think that helped keeping everything more stable with my kids as they were going through school and everything, as opposed to all of us working shifts. Linking up with a mentor is a condition that can also create that kairotic moment for advancement or promotion. As one retired municipal colonel explained, Now, we had a retired female major in our agency. She had been retired for some time. That was kind of an interesting history, because her style was very different. She was very bombastic and out there. I think to her credit, and to the credit of many of the gals of that time, they had to fight through so much stuff, it was just outrageous. She just wasn’t playing any more. She would just go in and open the door and bust into their meetings and say, “What the hell’s the matter with you guys?” This female major served as a mentor to the respondent even after retirement. More importantly, she blazed the path to advancement for others and continued to help other women in the agency after she retired. Her goodwill extended to women with whom she had never worked. Other respondents waited a long time for the right environment or mentor to even test for promotion. For example, one respondent waited 17 years before taking the sergeant’s exam because the previous chief told her that he would never promote her. She did not feel it was worth the effort until there was a leadership change that resulted in a female chief. She reported, I actually just got promoted to sergeant last year, and that is because, well, I think it is because we had a female police chief for the first time in my 18 years, and I got in the top three after I took the sergeant’s exam, and basically she’s the one who promoted me, where the other officers, the other male officers, were like, “No, we wouldn’t pick her, we would skip her and go to somebody else.” But they didn’t have any reasoning for not picking me besides, you know—I’m pretty strong-minded, and strong-willed, and I’ve been there 18 years, so I don’t let these guys kind of push me around. So I got promoted to sergeant, which was quite a shock to some people. Some of my command officers had told me, “Yeah, as long as I work here, you’ll never be a sergeant.” So I took full advantage of our new female chief coming in. I took, like, a month off work and studied for the sergeant’s exam and got in the top three. Interestingly, though female mentorship was a powerful condition for advancement, many respondents reported receiving mentorship from senior male officers who provided them with a sense of inclusion, assisted in addressing resistance from other male colleagues, and encouraged them to resist other institutional constraints. (See the section “A Kairotic Map” for an example of how a senior male mentor can use authority in a resourceful manner to help remove barriers for promotion for female officers.) In an effort to advance, many of our respondents furthered their education by either completing a bachelor’s degree or obtaining a master’s degree. Many viewed the 300 Feminist Criminology 13(3) opportunity to pursue higher education as an important catalyst for promotion particularly as respondents reported impediments in accessing specialized training due to agency budget limitations and/or blocked access due to their gender. By obtaining a degree, respondents were able to tap into knowledge that assisted them in their jobs and made them more viable candidates for promotion to higher ranked positions. For example, one respondent shared that the opportunities provided during her graduate education assisted her to take leadership in the development of several community engagement programs. Another respondent, a retired municipal chief, explained, “I’m the only one that’s got a master’s degree, I’m writing, I’m teaching, I’m publishing . . . and you can’t ignore that.” Because she was the only officer at her rank (throughout her career) to have an advanced degree, it was one more qualification that the chief had to consider when making decisions about promotion and advancement. Education then represents an important condition in advancement for policewomen as it is an avenue of opportunity they can pursue that makes it more difficult for gendered institutions to overlook them. Finally, another condition that emerged from the interviews was the use of lawsuits. Four of the respondents filed lawsuits against their departments in response to either unfair treatment or unlawful practices. One respondent, a municipal patrol officer who was presently studying for the sergeant’s exam, had a police chief tell her to lose weight—the only one in her department given that directive. She won her lawsuit. She related, “We won $650,000 for the lawsuit, which was the largest payout for a sex discrimination case at that time.” Surprisingly, the majority of respondents who had filed lawsuits remained as police officers in their same department following the resolution of their lawsuit. These women filed lawsuits to improve conditions in their department and remained to do the work after the resolution, with two promoting and one actively seeking promotion at the time of the interview. This same respondent told us: [the chief] had no choice in the matter, he was ordered by the mayor at that point [to stop discussing anyone’s weight]. But he, you know, he was always right there in the background the whole time, and he still is, he’s still there. But, I mean, I grew around that and . . . I became the secretary on the union, and I did it mainly because I sat right across from him every single meeting, and I just sat there and stared at him at every meeting. And it was kind of like my way of making him uncomfortable. This respondent stayed and improved not only her own circumstances but also those of all the other men and women in her agency. A “Kairotic” Map To examine how kairotic moments can disrupt the dominant narrative in policing, change institutionalized practices that persistently exclude women, and result in advancement to promotion, we mapped out the career experiences of one of our respondents, who rose to the rank of interim chief. We chose to map this particular respondent because (a) she both desired and achieved promotion, (b) her career Morabito and Shelley 301 Figure 1. Kairotic map. exemplified many of the kairotic moments described by other women in the sample, and (c) her experiences exemplify key propositions of CAT. Specifically, her narrative 302 Feminist Criminology 13(3) challenges the very individualistic outlook that can overlook how people’s ability to agentively seek and obtain promotion may be dependent on specific conditions and opportunities that are variable over the life course of a career. As shown in Figure 1, Respondent A had military experience, which gave her insight into the hierarchical structure and the physicality of police work. She prepared for the academy and already believed that she could handle the job tasks and responsibilities of policing. She found an agency with job openings, was hired, and successfully completed the academy. Her field training was limited in duration and structure, and she was soon out on patrol as was typical at the time. During field training and patrol, a commanding officer sexually harassed her but she persevered with the help of parents and friends. She soon divorced her husband, who was unsupportive of her career as a police officer. She later remarried and was promoted to sergeant. She said of her second husband, I probably would never have survived a career in policing except that I married another guy who I had also known in the military. He and I met again after about a decade and hit it off and we married. I guess we’re married 28 years now, and he is the whole reason I survived my career in policing. Combined with her own qualifications and an opening for sergeant, her spouse’s encouragement and sharing of domestic responsibilities helped create a kairotic moment that allowed for her promotion. Respondent A and her husband decided they wanted to have a family. At the time, there were no federal pregnancy protections, so when she was moved to an inside position in operations where a uniform was not required, she used the opportunity to have two children. She reported, “It was a three-year assignment, so I had two babies while I was inside, but I came back to work two weeks after each baby.” She did not have to worry about her uniform not fitting or figuring out when she should come off the street. There was no need to make those decisions in this assignment. For the respondent, it was the ideal condition/time to have her two children—with minimal repercussion on her chances for promotion or advancement in the future. Even with this seemingly ideal opportunity, she still felt pressured to come back to work immediately, telling us, “I was on a list for promotion and they said, ‘Well, obviously you’re not very serious if you’re going about having babies.’” She had to work around sexist beliefs about motherhood and policing. Though inexcusable, the sexism she experienced caused her to view the assignment as an “opportunity” to reproduce when it would have the least impact on her career and was presumably less noticeable to male colleagues working in the field. Although the respondent was constrained by sexism, she used the experience to fulfill professional and personal goals. This experience links directly to a key tenet of CAT—that the slippage or intersection between authority and agentive opportunities can constrain while also opening possibilities. After nine years in rank as sergeant and passed over for promotion three times, Respondent A sued the department and the jurisdiction for discrimination in the Morabito and Shelley 303 promotion process. After consulting with her spouse and female command staff from other agencies, she realized her agency was engaged in discriminatory and unfair labor practices because she was female and not because she lacked the qualifications required for the position. She told us, “I had come to terms with the fact that I was just going to blow my career up, is what I thought. . . . I didn’t think anything good was going to come of it.” She pursued the lawsuit even though she felt that it would hurt her career. She was interested in helping those who came after her and righting a wrong. There was considerable hostility in the agency about her lawsuit: A high-ranking major put Halloween posters up with my name as the head witch, you know, with the wart-face and everything, and I challenged the agency [about] a major doing, taking that kind of action. He was demoted, he left. I took another chief on, so I started to be a battering—you know, I, I just went after everybody at that point. I kind of had to. She noted that a deputy chief supported her during this time: For whatever reason, a deputy chief at the time really, I guess, decided he admired me. I didn’t even know him and he basically brought me in as his aide. . . . As people would find opportunities to insult me publically or say things to me, say something negative in some disrespectful way, he proceeded to take action against everybody that went after me. This mentor used his authority and seniority as a resource8 (rather than as a barrier) to help this respondent navigate gendered hostility as she advanced in the agency. Respondent A was promoted to lieutenant and then seven years later to captain. During this time, she earned a master’s degree. After two more years, she was promoted to major and then four years later to deputy chief. She reports that at this point the command staff knew that she was litigious, and because she tested well, they had no choice but to promote her. Respondent A was the first female deputy chief in her agency. Eventually she promoted to interim chief but was later demoted after the arrest of a politically connected person in her jurisdiction; she never became permanent chief. She retired from policing and went into the private sector. Respondent A experienced a number of conditions previously highlighted by other women in our sample who achieved promotion. She had the support of her spouse, she experienced mentorship, she achieved a graduate degree, and she filed a lawsuit after repeatedly being discriminated against during the promotion process. It is important to note that not all female officers in our sample experience all of these conditions the same way in the same order, and most report experiencing differing combinations of the conditions. Discussion The purpose of this study was to explore whether CAT can help enhance our understanding of the experiences of women in policing. To this end, we sought to identify 304 Feminist Criminology 13(3) the conditions, opportunities, and “kairotic moments” experienced by our sample to learn how they disrupted the dominant narrative in policing. Our results suggest that CAT is valuable for enhancing our understanding of how women in policing obtain promotion. Our findings have significant implications for both policy and practice that move beyond increasing the presence of women in policing toward also advancing their inclusion. We recognize that there are additional conditions that affect all police officers: agency compression, low turnover, and shrinking budgets. The lack of opportunity for promotion is something that can negatively influence all police officers. There are only so many promotion opportunities to sergeant for patrol officers and the opportunities decrease as they move further up the hierarchy. Furthermore, there are officers who elect not to seek promotion. As Whetstone (2001) notes, not all officers are motivated by “the extrinsic rewards attendant to upward mobility.” Rather, there are patrol officers—regardless of gender—who enjoy patrol work and are not interested in management opportunities. These officers were also in our sample—and although the minority, their decisions should not be ignored, as promotion is not the only way to experience success. Yet evidence suggests that female officers are less likely to obtain promotions (or even try: Gau, Terrill, & Paoline, 2013) across agencies. It is unlikely that female officers are all uninterested in promotion; in fact, our research reveals that women are actively seeking supervisory and command positions in policing. Some entered policing with the goal of promotion; others developed aspirations over the course of their careers. This study has detailed some of the conditions and opportunities that are specific to women in policing who do want to be promoted. We emphasize that while promotion is the end point that many officers strive to achieve, it can also be a means or a condition in itself. The first promotion can be the most difficult to achieve. After an officer receives the initial promotion, it can ease the transition for future promotions and change how command staff perceive them. We wanted to tell the story of those women who successfully navigated the police hierarchy and how they managed it. These do not represent the totality of all conditions but rather those that emerged from the respondents in the sample. We reinforce that multiple conditions are necessary to create kairotic moments. What works for one female officer may not be effective for another—even in the same agency. Thus, we suggest a new narrative to highlight the conditions that support women’s promotion in a male-dominated environment. What are the conditions that lead to kairotic moments that result in change rather than a reproduction of the status quo in policing? First, female officers need to believe that they are capable and competent police officers. This belief is often associated with the presence of supportive colleagues who will mentor and encourage them to seek out opportunities, as well as the existence of female leaders in the organization who serve as powerful role models. Next, family support generally, and parity in household maintenance and childrearing more specifically, empowers female officers to seek promotional opportunities. Finally, achieving a degree is an external resource many Morabito and Shelley 305 women utilize to differentiate themselves in promotional processes that may privilege internal agency experiences to which they have not had access. Internal reforms are needed within police agencies (e.g., mentorship, equal access to training and special assignments, etc.) in tandem with external reforms in society (e.g., gender roles in parenting) to ensure that the conditions and opportunities that lead to kairotic moments can emerge. Future research should explore why some women experience kairotic moments and others do not. It is highly likely that agency structure (or other characteristics such as agency size or the proportion of women) might affect the range and/or frequency of exposure to conditions and opportunities that lead to kairotic moments. There may be an intersection of agency characteristics and conditions that can enhance or reduce the effects of conditions on kairotic moments. For example, Archbold and Schulz (2008) found that when female officers were encouraged by their male superiors to apply for promotion, they were less likely to do so. The women in their sample were concerned about the judgments associated with tokenism and were not interested in promoting if others perceived them as less deserving. Our study revealed the opposite, whereby encouragement by male colleagues was strongly associated with willingness to seek promotion, suggesting that there are important agency and personal conditions necessary for kairotic moments to occur. In sum, female officers are a multifaceted group who make career decisions using a complex calculus. Their ability to obtain promotion comes in the form of kairotic moments where conditions align to create opportunity. These moments may be very different from one woman to the next, as well as from their male peers. Given the plateauing of women in policing, scholars should do more to help identify kairotic moments, and agencies must increase them to retain and promote more female officers. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Jenna Vinson for her inspiration and assistance with previous drafts of this article as well as the Center for Women & Work for allowing them to workshop the article. Declaration of Conflicting Interests The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Funding The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was partially funded by an internal university grant from UMASS Boston and Colorado State University. Notes 1. 2. This is the most recent available data. Success is broadly defined as not all police women (and men) desire to be promoted for various reasons some of which may or may not be due to the gendered organization. 306 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Feminist Criminology 13(3) Success can include achieving other forms of leadership positions within a police agency, job satisfaction, and retention. Social networking is not officially part of any promotional practice, but unofficially it can play a role in the information, support, and familiarity people have with the process. The fact that the bulk of our participants are in patrol is not an indicator of a failure to navigate the gendered institution of policing. Indeed, the majority of all police officers spend their entire career as patrol officers given the limited opportunities for promotion. For many of our respondents, retention was an indicator of successful navigation. In addition, some of our research participants have risen to leadership positions within patrol being the unofficial “go-to” person on a shift. Discussing how female respondents entered into the profession is crucial as it gives us a sense about early career experiences and their ability to command respect and influence. Feeling empowered to become a police officer is itself a kairotic moment for some of our respondents. 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Women farmland owners in Iowa: Cultivating agency through rhetorical practice (Doctoral dissertation). Iowa State University, Ames. Author Biographies Melissa S. Morabito is an associate professor at University Massachusetts Lowell in the School of Criminology and Justice Studies and an associate at the Center for Women and Work. She received her PhD in justice, law, and society from American University and an MSW from Columbia University. She was previously a postdoctoral fellow at the National Institute of Mental Health funded Center for Mental Health Services and Criminal Justice Research where she studied police response to people with mental illnesses. Previously, she worked for the Department of Justice as a policy analyst with the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. She has published in Crime & Delinquency, Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management. Tara O’Connor Shelley is an associate professor and director of the Institute on Violence Against Women and Human Trafficking as well as the director of the Institute for Criminal Justice Leadership and Public Policy in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Strategic Studies at Tarleton State University. She received her PhD in criminology and criminal justice at Florida State University and her MS in justice, law, and society from the American University. She previously worked as an associate professor and codirector of the Center for the Study of Crime and Justice (CSCJ) in the Department of Sociology at Colorado State University. Prior to joining academia, she worked for the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE), the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), and the Justice Research and Statistics Association (JRSA). She has recently published in Deviant Behavior, Social Psychology Quarterly, Critical Criminology, and Violence and Victims. J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 DOI 10.1007/s10940-011-9145-7 ORIGINAL PAPER Seasonal Cycles in Crime, and Their Variability David McDowall • Colin Loftin • Matthew Pate Published online: 9 October 2011 Ó Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011 Abstract Seasonal crime patterns have been a topic of sustained criminological research for more than a century. Results in the area are often conflicting, however, and no firm consensus exists on many points. The current study uses a long time series and a large areal sample to obtain more detailed seasonality estimates than have been available in the past. The findings show that all major crime rates exhibit seasonal behavior, and that most follow similar cycles. The existence of seasonal patterns is not explainable by monthly temperature differences between areas, but seasonality and temperature variations do interact with each other. These findings imply that seasonal fluctuations have both environmental and social components, which can combine to create different patterns from one location to another. Keywords Seasonal patterns  Panel data  Spatial variability Introduction Crime seasonality is a source of predictable variation that can be helpful for developing theories and in forecasting the future. Largely because of these uses, seasonal patterns have been a topic of near-continuous criminological study since the mid-nineteenth century. The findings from this research are nevertheless inconsistent, and differing conclusions exist about even such basic questions as the months in which property crimes reach their peak. The current paper seeks to add to knowledge about seasonal crime patterns in three ways. First, it presents an analysis of monthly panel data that covers more areas and a longer temporal dimension than previous efforts have considered. This is important because stochastic noise can obscure seasonality, and even a long time series will complete comparatively few cycles. Second, the paper examines mechanisms through which seasonal changes might influence crime rates, especially whether monthly temperatures are sufficient to account for their existence. Lack of evidence that this is so would support the D. McDowall (&)  C. Loftin  M. Pate School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, 135 Western Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA e-mail: dmcdowall@albany.edu 123 390 J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 notion that seasonality has a social component that goes beyond the physical environment. Third, the analysis considers if all United States cities exhibit the same cycles, or whether differences exist in major seasonal characteristics. The remainder of the paper first selectively reviews the literature on crime seasonality, covering both theoretical mechanisms that could underlie the patterns and empirical findings about their properties. The following sections then discuss the research questions more thoroughly, describe the data and methods, and present the results. The analysis finds evidence of seasonal cycles in all of the crime rates that it examines. These patterns remain after controlling for monthly temperature differences, and for most offenses they vary considerably in form across areas. The final sections consider the implications of the results for understanding how seasonal fluctuations operate to generate crime. Research on Seasonality in Crime Rates Empirical Findings The literature on crime seasonality is large in volume, and it includes a variety of only loosely connected topics. Existing work ranges from analyses of fluctuations in highfrequency data (hourly, daily, weekly) to studies of the criminological relevance of humidity, cloud cover, and other environmental conditions. Thorough reviews of this research are already available (e.g., Baumer and Wright 1996; Cohn 1990), and the present paper will consider only the part of it that focuses on recurring annual patterns. The most elementary questions about seasonality are whether crime rates follow predictable cycles, and if so, in which months are they highest and lowest. Research generally concludes that offenses do differ with the seasons (homicide being a possible exception), but existing work disagrees about most other issues. Quetelet (1969/1842) reported that peaks occurred in the winter for property crimes and in the summer for violent crimes, and his claims heavily influenced later thinking. Sutherland’s (1947) classic textbook asserted the findings as facts, and contemporary discussions still occasionally use them as summaries (e.g., Baumer and Wright 1996). Some current studies do find opposite cycles for violent and property crimes (e.g., Farrell and Pease 1994), but such outcomes are relatively rare. Lab and Hirschel (1988) note that most work since the early twentieth century instead shows either summer peaks for all offenses or complex patterns that resist easy summarization. Representative examples include Cohn and Rotton (2000), Dodge (1988), Dodge and Lentzner (1980), and Yan (2004), who reached similar conclusions from different geographical areas and data sources. The most sophisticated and comprehensive analysis, by Hipp et al. (2004), also concludes that both types of crime take place most often in the summer. Yet even among recent studies, substantial differences appear when the discussion moves from broad classifications to individual offenses. Some research finds seasonal patterns in rape rates, for example, (e.g., Anderson 1989; Hird and Ruparel 2007; Michael and Zumpe 1983), but other research does not (e.g., Deutsch 1978). Robbery (conceived of variously as a property crime or a violent crime) has summer peaks in some studies (e.g., Cohn and Rotton 2000), and winter peaks in others (e.g., Field 1992; Landau and Fridman 1993). Homicide has received the most attention among individual offenses, and it produces the most divergent results. Studies that do find seasonal patterns almost always conclude that the peak is in the summer (Anderson 1989; Hakko 2000; Tennenbaum and Fink 1994; 123 J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 391 Warren et al. 1983). Many studies, however, find no evidence of any homicide seasonality at all (Deutsch 1978; Landau and Fridman 1993; Michael and Zumpe 1983). Researchers have often attributed the negative findings to the fact that homicides occur less frequently than do other crimes (e.g., Rock et al. 2003; Tennenbaum and Fink 1994). One consequence of this rarity is that conclusions about seasonal patterns can more easily vary with analytical approaches. Rock et al. (2003), for example, used modern methods to study a homicide series originally collected by Brearley (1932). Brearley’s rudimentary analysis had found that the series was not seasonal, but Rock et al. detected a clear cycle that peaked in the summer. A closely related problem is that all existing homicide research has had a relatively short temporal component. The Brearley data covered only 6 years, and the time spans for other studies have been of similar length. Examples include Deutsch (1978), who analyzed 10 years of monthly data; Landau and Freedman (1993), who analyzed 9 years; Rock et al. (2008), who analyzed 5 years; and Tennenbaum and Fink (1994), who analyzed 14 years. Study periods this brief require a very strong pattern if an analysis is to detect it. Homicide research has also generally studied only a few local areas or a single national aggregate. For the examples above, Deutsch (1978) analyzed time series from 10 U.S. cities; Landau and Freedman (1993) used a nationwide series from Israel; Rock et al. (2008) used a nationwide series from England and Wales; and Tennenbaum and Fink (1994) used a nationwide series from the United States. Results from a nation or a handful of subnational units may be misleading if seasonal cycles operate differently in some places than in others. The concerns about short series and limited areal samples could apply to other individual offenses besides homicide, and also to broader property and violent crime aggregations. When one dimension, temporal or areal, has been large in seasonal research, the other dimension has been small. In the most thorough study, Hipp et al. (2004) analyzed a sample of more 8,000 local areas, but only over a three-year interval. The time dimension reduced their ability to study variation in the seasonal effects, and it raised the possibility that the choice of an atypical period might have influenced their results. Theoretical Background Contemporary research usually accounts for crime seasonality through use of temperatureaggression theories or routine activities theory. Temperature-aggression theories are the more limited of the two, and they stress the idea that humans become increasingly irritable as heat and humidity levels rise (e.g., Anderson 1989). Several variants of the theories exist, differing from each other in important respects (Bell and Baron 1976; Anderson et al. 1995; Cohn et al. 2004). All versions of the theories nevertheless predict that the summer months will experience higher rates of criminal violence due to the greater frequency of hot weather. Beyond this general claim, temperature-aggression theories otherwise have little to say about seasonal fluctuations in violence, and they lack any straightforward application to property crimes. Most empirical research involving the theories therefore focuses on temperature variations, and seasonal cycles ultimately have no analytical interest in themselves (Anderson et al. 1997; DeFronzo 1984; Harries and Stadler 1983). Routine activities theory offers a more comprehensive approach to seasonality, and it can in principle explain patterns in both violent and property offenses. The theory calls attention to how temporal cycles help structure individual behaviors, most obviously through changes in the physical environment. Pleasant weather in the spring and summer encourages people to spend more time outdoors, for example, and away from their homes. 123 392 J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 Absence from home then reduces the ability of these potential victims to guard their property, and it in addition places them in settings with higher risks of assaultive violence (see, e.g., Cohn 1990). Other physical factors that might influence contact between victims and offenders, such as the number of daylight hours, similarly vary with the seasons (Van Kopen and Jansen 1999). Although existing applications of routine activities theory emphasize the weather and environmental phenomena, social activities may independently work to generate seasonal fluctuations. Miron (1996) argues that much of the seasonality in the economy is due to summer vacations and to Christmas-related production and consumption. It seems plausible that these and other socially-patterned cycles would also influence outcomes such as crime. In its current state, routine activities theory is limited by its ability to fit almost any pattern of results. Cohn and Rotton (2000) used it to account for summer robbery peaks, for example, while Landau and Fridman (1993) used it to explain robbery peaks in the winter. Such contradictory predictions are due to the theory’s flexibility, which makes it compatible with multiple outcomes. Most of the research that has relied on routine activities theory has therefore used it to organize findings, not as a source of testable hypotheses. The work of Hipp et al. (2004) provides a notable exception to this lack of theoretical development. Hipp and colleagues tested predictions from routine activities and temperature-aggression theories, finding much more support for the former than the latter. Besides comparing routine activities theory with other explanations, another way to increase its relevance to seasonality would be to use it to understand how seasonal patterns might arise. As explained in more detail below, the present paper will attempt to move in this direction. Current Study The divergent findings of earlier research suggest that accurate seasonal estimates require data from many years and from multiple locations. To obtain such estimates, the current paper will use a monthly panel of 88 U.S. cities followed over a twenty-four-year period. Considering the temporal and spatial dimensions together, this is the most extensive set of data yet assembled to study crime seasonality. While any data set has limitations, the findings will be much less dependent on features unique to settings and times than has been true in the past. The analysis will consider each of the major FBI Part I offenses, and it will estimate a separate seasonal coefficient for each month of the year. Past research has most often used general indices of property and violent crimes, and has concentrated on bimonthly or quarterly rates. These aggregations are useful with small data sets because they reduce the impact of random variations. They also risk diluting the strength of the seasonal differences, however, and they can conceal patterns specific to a particular offense. The larger number of observations in the present study eliminates the need for this loss of detail.1 Developing better estimates of crime seasonality is worthwhile by itself, and the results should help resolve questions about the size and nature of the annual cycles. Beyond improved estimates, however, the analysis will also address two theoretical questions about 1 Consistent with the bulk of research in all areas of the social sciences, we define seasonality as any cyclical pattern that repeats itself at regular intervals. The finer variation in monthly data allow a more detailed study of seasonal patterns than do quarterly aggregations into spring, summer, autumn, and winter. The relatively course quarterly aggregations may in fact obscure information about how seasonality occurs. 123 J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 393 how seasonal fluctuations might occur. The first of these involves the degree to which seasonality is the result of monthly temperature changes. As mentioned earlier, the activity patterns that accompany warmer or cooler weather may help generate seasonal variability in exposure to crime. In particular, comfortable temperatures encourage persons to engage in activities outside their homes, so increasing the risks to themselves and their property. If routine activities operate this way, crime rates should always be higher in the summer, and temperature changes should substantially mediate the seasonal pattern. Including average monthly temperatures in a model with seasonal effects should accordingly reduce the size of the annual variations, and in the extreme make them disappear entirely. If appreciable differences remain after controlling for average temperatures, environmental conditions become a less compelling explanation for the existence of seasonality. The outcome would still be consistent with routine activities as a source of seasonal fluctuations, but it would suggest that social factors should receive more attention than has previously been true. Past research has not directly considered the role of temperatures in generating seasonal crime cycles. A partial exception is Cohn and Rotton (1997, 2000), who analyzed violent and property crimes in Minneapolis. They found statistically significant monthly differences after controlling for temperatures and weather conditions, supporting the notion that these were not the only variables underlying the seasonal patterns. Still, their major interests lay elsewhere, and they did not report whether the seasonal effects were larger before they added the controls. If monthly temperature changes do not fully explain seasonality, another issue is whether the seasonal variations interact with temperatures. Here temperatures would moderate the seasonal cycle, and the impact of seasonality would differ across cities. Conclusions about seasonal patterns, including about such basic matters as whether crime rates are highest or lowest in the summer, could then depend on the areas under study. Hipp et al. (2004) have already presented evidence of variability in seasonal influences, showing that cities with larger temperature differences have more pronounced annual crime cycles. Hipp and his associates were primarily interested in time-constant climate features, however, and so did not examine month-to-month temperature changes. They assumed that areas differed only in the extremity of their oscillations, and that other characteristics of the cycles operated identically. In contrast, the analysis here allows the possibility that even the basic appearance of the seasonal patterns may vary across cities. Hipp et al. address an important question, and the current research in part complements their efforts. Still, the issues that Hipp et al. consider are different from those in the present paper. Data The study uses monthly data from the 88 U.S. cities that had 2000 Census populations of 200,000 persons or more. The analysis covers the years between 1977 and 2000, and separately considers the crimes of homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Offense counts come from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program, and populations for the rates are interpolations of UCR estimates. The UCR program devotes most of its efforts to producing annual crime counts. The program also collects and distributes monthly counts, but it does not attempt to insure their accuracy or consistency. Many agencies submit crime reports only intermittently through 123 394 J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 the year, or they provide quarterly or semiannual totals rather than monthly ones (Maltz 1999, 2007). Beyond the difficulties posed by these temporally aggregated submissions, zeros in the monthly counts may indicate either no offenses or an absent report. To avoid these problems, the paper uses a unique data file assembled and distributed by Michael Maltz (2009). Maltz individually examined agency-level UCR submissions, flagging months with missing, aggregated, or questionable entries. His efforts make it possible to take advantage of the monthly UCR data without the errors that have reduced their value in the past. The Maltz data set begins in 1960, and it includes more than seventeen thousand law enforcement agencies. The current study might therefore have extended itself in both the temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. Areas with small populations nevertheless have few serious crimes, and low frequencies make it more difficult to detect the existence of seasonal patterns. Monthly crime counts for offenses such as homicide are often low even for cities with populations exceeding 200,000, and less populous areas would make the problems worse. A longer time span would similarly result in some cities having unacceptably small populations in the earlier years of the analysis. In 1960, for example, Mesa, Arizona had only 34,000 residents, and Plano, Texas, had only 4,000. Although the study’s selection criteria are somewhat arbitrary, they balance a reasonably long temporal dimension with a reasonably large cross-section. Analytic Strategy The paper’s basic analytical model is a panel extension of the classical time series decomposition (see, e.g., Brockwell and Davis 2002; Mills 2003). The classical decomposition divides a series into trend, seasonal, and random components, and the paper’s specification of it is:
Yit ¼ ai þ b1 ðTimet Þ þ    þ bn Timent þ c1 ðJanuaryt Þ þ    þ c11 ðNovembert Þ þ vit Here the ai are coefficients for fixed effects (dummy variables) that individually distinguish each city; b1 through bn are slopes for a linear time trend and its powers; c1 through c11 are coefficients for a set of monthly dummy variables; and vit is an error unique to a year and city. The fixed effects allow for constant between-area differences in crime, and they control for factors that make a particular city’s rate consistently higher or lower than the sample average. The time variables allow for linear and nonlinear trends that operate identically across all cities, and the monthly dummies measure the impact of seasonal variations. Classical decompositions usually consider seasonal patterns only within a single area. The present paper modestly extends the approach to panel data, but it is not the first analysis to do so (see, e.g., Cohen et al. 2003; Gorr et al. 2003). The dummy variable specification imposes deterministic effects, and a stochastic model would allow variation in the seasonal influences across years (Ghysels and Osborn 2001). Miron (1996) points out that deterministic seasonality is usually theoretically plausible, however, and notes that models for it are straightforward to apply. He argues that these features make deterministic effects the most reasonable starting point for any study of seasonal fluctuations. A seasonal ARIMA analysis (Brockwell and Davis 2002; McCleary et al. 1980), perhaps the major stochastic alternative to classical decomposition, would also not address the paper’s central interests. An ARIMA model can easily incorporate seasonal correlation 123 J Quant Criminol (2012) 28:389–410 395 structures, but it will not provide coefficients for the individual months of the cycle. Without additional computations, one could not use ARIMA results to find the months in which crime rates were highest or lowest, or to estimate the sizes of monthly differences. The classical decomposition, in contrast, provides these quantities directly. An ARIMA model also would not easily combine data from multiple areas, and it would require all seasonal variation to follow a symmetrical curve. A panel model pools data by design, and a set of seasonal dummy variables allow a cycle that is asymmetrical around its peak and trough. An important weakness of classical decomposition, especially compared with ARIMA modeling, is in its handling of trends and other forms of time series nonstationarity. Classical decomposition assumes that nonstationarity–any lasting departure of a series away from its mean–is due to deterministic trends that operate consistently over time. Series often display stochastic nonstationary features, however, which a deterministic model cannot remove (see, e.g., Enders 2010). To evaluate the dependence of the results on the deterministic trend assumption, the paper will therefore consider supplementary analyses that allow for stochastic nonstationary behavior. A classical decomposition is not the only deterministic model that the paper might have used. Trigonometric analysis is a well-developed alternative approach, and several past studies have applied it (Michael and Zumpe 1983; Rock et al. 2003, 2008; Hipp et al. 2004). Dummy variable and trigonometric models are equivalent in their implications, however (Ghysels and Osborn 2001: 20–24), and the dummy variables are easier to interpret. Many methods for studying seasonality exist, and all of them have advantages and limitations unique to themselves. Like any method, classical decomposition is not ideal in all respects. It considers questions about the size and pattern of month-to-month seasonal fluctuations, however, and this allows it to directly address the paper’s major interests. Besides the fixed effects, trends, and monthly dummy variables, the basic model also allows for two ways in which calendar variation might generate false evidence of seasonal patterns. First, shorter months have fewer opportunities for crime than do longer ones, and they might be low points for that reason only. Second, homicides occur most often on the weekends (Ceccato 2005; Wolfgang 1958), and other offenses may also have day-of-theweek patterns of their own. This complicates the analysis, because the frequency of specific weekdays within a month will differ from year to year...
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