This is a problem of poisson distribution.
p = 0.2
P(4)=16C4* p^4 * (1-p)^12 (binomial distribution) where 16C4= 16! / (4! * 12!)
P(4) = 1820 * 0.2^4 * 0.8^12 = 0.20011
Ping in case of any confusion.
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