University South Florida Threat Assessment Presentation

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Identifying the threat: THREAT ASSESSMENT: a Specific group terrorist group

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Threat Assessment Template I. INTRODUCTION Brief blurb meeting up the overall idea of what/ who you are covering. Interesting info, statistic, whatever. Why you are covering them. About a paragraph. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM What and where is/are the areas most affected. What is the problem in relation to terror or political violence or both in this area/region. This is broad. Not specific yet. Should be about a paragraph or two long (typically it is longer if you are covering all threats). Make sure -where applicable you are weaving in terms/ concepts from the text. PROGRESS TO DATE What has been done so far to combat these threats locally and/ or internationally? Again this is just a set up. Not a lot of specifics here. Just tell me overall what has been done and by whom and if it has been successful or not. OBJECTIVES **What will you be telling us moving forward with this assessment? Restate who you are covering, and where they operate. What terms will you define? What main concepts in terrorism will be covered? **For what periods will they be discussed? **Then end by telling us you will end with a projection of the threat into the future and what, if anything, needs to be done (in your educated guess. Again this doesn’t have to be perfect. Just when reading you will likely come across ideas about this. Either explicitly stated or you will decide for yourself. Do not tell me/ us specifically all the answers; just tell us that’s what you will be doing.). About a paragraph. II. Identifying the threat: THREAT ASSESSMENT: (Specific group). ** TYPE OF ADVERSARY: What is the group you are covering? What is their history (briefly)? Are they terrorist group? Extremists? Etc? **CATEGORY OF ADVERSARY: Are they foreign/domestic? Then, specify: insider or outside threat? Terrorist or criminal? Be specific. ** MAIN PLAYERS: Who are their main players and where are they from? ** MAIN OBJECTIVE: what is their overall objective? Why? Are they interested in theft, socio or political change via legal means? Revolution? Mass destruction? ** Successes to-date: What were their major successes, if any? Minor, successes if any? ** TOOLS: what types of tools do they have at their disposal? Any idea on numbers, if they are available? If so specify for each. Check out “Tools of the trade” in the text. EX: Group X has at heir disposal approximately 125 ready suicide bombers, as well as a camp that, in part, trains additional suicide bombers. It is estimated they have approximately 20 more currently at this location (cite, year). ** Traget(s) selected by the adversary: Who/ what infrastructure or places have they traditionally targeted? ** RANGE of adversary: are they able to deploy stealth? Deceit? Combo? Other? ** Capabilities of the adversary: What do they have at their disposal? What knowl- Page 1 of 3 Threat Assessment Template edge, motivations, weapons (if any? Or the ability to create them?), skills? CALCULATING THE THREAT: (Basically everything that is not numbered or ** below, you can copy/ paste and cite DHS— we will use their method Put the stinging info onto your own words). Based on a combination of these factors: (you have largely answered a lot of this already. This is here for you to know how to proceed.) 1. Existence: A terrorist group is present, or is able to gain access to a given locality. Capability: The capability of a terrorist group to carry out an attack has been assessed or demonstrated. 2. Intent: Evidence of terrorist group activity, including stated or assessed intent to conduct terrorist activity. 3. History: Demonstrated terrorist activity in the past. 4. Targeting: Current credible information or activity exists that indicates preparations for specific terrorist operations—intelligence collection by a suspect group, preparation of destructive devices, other actions. 5. Security environment: (SEE: TEXT) Indicates if and how the political and security posture of the threatened jurisdiction affects the capability of terrorist elements to carry out their intentions. Addresses whether the jurisdiction is concerned with terrorism and whether it has taken strong proactive countermeasures to deal with such a threat. To “quantify” the theat, you can use the following numerical system which is deployed by DHS created by Proteus Security Group (Proteus Security Group, 1997). ! Critical (5): Existence, capability, and targeting are present. History and intentions may not be. ! High (4): Existence, capability, history, and intentions are present. ! Medium (3): Existence, capability, and history are present. Intention may not be. ! Low (2): Existence and capability are present. History may not be. ! Negligible (1): Existence or capability may not be present. III. FUTURE TARGET ASSESMENT IDENTIFYING TARGETS: (People who need protection) Who are their targets, as far as people go if any moving forward?? is there new chatter of a new target? Is there a specific ethnic group that is more at risk? Or could the targets be political in nature? POTUS, diplomats, for example? Or both? Tell us who they are. Who might need to protect them? Is there an agency or agencies locally (in the country you are covering)? Find this out by first answering WHO then you can search the country’s profile to find out which agency is in charge of those individuals or would be in charge of a group. You can also add international organizations if they are IDP’s or other types of displaced people or a diaspora of some kind. Should be about a paragraph or two. IDENTIFYING TARGETS: (Infrastructure who need protection) Page 2 of 3 Threat Assessment Template What infrastructure — if any— is at risk? Exs such as water or electrical grids, National Monuments, symbolic places to the group or what they imagine are for the country they operate? III. FUTURE TEMPORAL THREAT PROJECTION Do you see this group as an immediate, mid longterm threat? Why? Briefly. About 1-2 paragraphs. It could be all three! IMMEDIATE THREAT: is the group an immediate and imminent concern. Now and into the next year? Is this concern constrained domestically/ internationally? How so? If so, cite who says so and why. briefly. MIDTERM THREAT: Is this group a threat from 1-3 years from now? Again, where and why and please cite. LONGTERM THREAT: Is this group also a long term threat? 3 years and beyond. Again, where and why and please cite. Typically you would add a section more detailed as far as who should deal with this— a Counterterrorism section. But I won’t ask for more detail than you specified in the intro. SO no need. =) Should be approximately 5 pages in length. OR 10-15 minutes for a presentation. Please let me know of questions. Paper 5 pages. single-spaced. Times New Roman font. 12 pt. etc. APA. you will need to turn in a bibliography and outline 4 (four) peer-reviewed sources. 6 other scholarly/ reliable sources. You can include and should include other sources such as reddit, telegram or wherever potential extremists are congregating and sharing information. Page 3 of 3
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Threat Assessment
Student’s Name
Institutional Affiliation
Professor
Course
Date

Introduction
• threats of terror attacks have become daily news headlines
• Statistics states that threats of terrorism attacks are becoming major
security concern worldwide.
• Threat assessment includes drafting a plan that will help governments and
other bodies to manage terror threats.
• The federal government recognizes terrorism as a continuing threat to
national security. It has detailed a plan for dealing with the threat that
comprises four essential elements: prevent, detect, deny, and respond
• Assessment and management of risk for terrorism is a cornerstone of
effective counter-terrorism

Introduction
• United states suffer from major terror threats.
• Most of the attacks against the united states happen as revenge
• These attacks serve as intimidation to force us to pull back its troops
from these Islamic states because the terror groups do not believe in
man-made laws which America tries to instill in the sta...


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