Time-Series Plot of Jewelry Store Sales

Sep 6th, 2017
Price: $15 USD

Question description

Please see attached files. Please follow the instruction to the tee!!!

1 The data for this exercise are in the Excel file for Exercise 1 in Bb. There two parts to this exercise. Your results should be submitted in a two (2) page Word document.1 Names of group members should appear at the top right of page 1 in alphabetic order by last names. Place a * before the name of the person with whom I will communicate regarding this exercise. Page one (for this you need only Excel): 1) Prepare a time-series plot of jewelry store sales in Excel. Then paste the graph into Word. This should be prepared in as professional a manner as you can make it and should be as easily read as possible. Below your graph indicate two forecast methods that you think might be appropriate for these data based on Table 2.1 of your forecasting text. Check how the dates appear in your Excel file … sometimes they get transferred incorrectly so you may need to reformat or re-enter dates to be sure they are actual Excel dates (not text). Page two (for this you will need the current version of ForecastX): Be sure to download and install ForecastX, following instructions in the syllabus … or if you are a Mac user be sure that you have accessed ForecastX using the virtual lab. 2) With the data file open place your cursor in cell B4, click on ADD-INS, then click on the blue “Forecast” icon right under the word FILE in Excel. Look at the first dialog box to be sure ForecastX sees the data as monthly, sees that there are dates, and sees one row of labels. In “Forecast Periods” use twenty-four (24). Then click on the “Forecast Method” tab and in the drop down box select “Holt Winters,” if the box next to “Edit Parameters” is checked uncheck it, and in the middle of this dialog box check “Multiplicative.” Next click the “Statistics” tab and check only the MAPE (mean absolute percent error). Then go to the “Reports” tab and check “Audit.” Finally click on “Finish” in the lower right corner. At the top of your results you will get a graph. If “Series 4” shows up delete it from the legend. In the legend click on Fitted Values (one of two green lines) and format that line to be a dark grey dashed line. Then click on Forecast (another green line) and format that to be a red dotted line. 1 When you have items to submit that have multiple pages be sure that pages are numbered. 2 Edit the vertical axis so that there are zero decimal places (usually those decimal places are not useful). From the edited results, copy the graph and paste it into the top of page two of your Word document. Under the graph comment on what you think of the forecast provided. You should send your two (2) page document to me as an email attachment by the end of the day next Thursday. Copy all group members on that email and I will reply to all when I return the exercise. Name the file for your exercise: 555 LastnameX LastnameY LastnameZ ExN Where the last names of the group members should be in alphabetic order. In place of where I have X, Y and Z put the first letter of the person’s first name. Most groups will have three names but some may have two or four names. For each exercise put in the number of that exercise where I have the “N” above. For the first exercise an example file name might be: 555 JonesB KellyF KellyM Ex1 For all exercises I recommend that each person in the group do the entire exercise first by themselves. Then share your results with other group members. Then revise/refine your group’s solution to what you want to submit to me the following Thursday as the group’s exercise solution. This exercise is meant to get you going with some data, thinking about forecasting and to make sure that you have ForecastX working. For the first exercise I assigned groups in alphabetic order based on last names. The composition of groups for the remaining exercises will be based on a random number assignment so groups will vary throughout the term. The group composition for Exercise 1 is on the next page. 3
Month Jewelry Store Sales (M$) Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Apr-2010 May-2010 Jun-2010 Jul-2010 Aug-2010 Sep-2010 Oct-2010 Nov-2010 Dec-2010 Jan-2011 Feb-2011 Mar-2011 Apr-2011 May-2011 Jun-2011 Jul-2011 Aug-2011 Sep-2011 Oct-2011 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012 Mar-2012 Apr-2012 May-2012 Jun-2012 Jul-2012 Aug-2012 Sep-2012 Oct-2012 Nov-2012 Dec-2012 Jan-2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 Jul-2013 Aug-2013 Sep-2013 1,493 2,088 1,779 1,789 2,240 1,797 1,811 1,806 1,680 1,901 2,388 5,077 1,614 2,221 1,970 2,187 2,617 2,088 1,978 2,173 2,074 1,997 2,447 5,601 1,668 2,598 2,050 1,948 2,668 2,143 1,943 2,116 2,047 2,064 2,549 6,068 1,830 2,600 2,194 2,300 2,788 2,194 2,072 2,224 2,086 US Retail Sales: Jewelry stores: NAICS 44831: NSA: Millions of http://www.economagic.com/ Oct-2013 Nov-2013 Dec-2013 Jan-2014 Feb-2014 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun-2014 Jul-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 Apr-2015 May-2015 Jun-2015 Jul-2015 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 2,318 2,770 5,996 1,959 2,705 2,222 2,359 2,931 2,241 2,206 2,305 2,102 2,236 2,596 5,763 1,841 2,536 2,059 2,212 2,741 2,254 2,144 2,164 1,961 2,083 2,486 5,807 NAICS 44831: NSA: Millions of dollars

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School: University of Virginia


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Exercise 1
1. Time-Series Plot of Jewelry Store Sales

Jewelry Store Sales (M$)


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