Understanding of probability is key in making business decisions. The following questions begin to test your understanding of the different forms of probability and the data on which probabilistic decision making is based.Select any one of the following starter bullet point sections. Review the important themes within the sub questions of each bullet point. The sub questions are designed to get you thinking about some of the important issues. Your response should provide a succinct synthesis of the key themes in a way that articulates a clear point, position, or conclusion supported by research. Select a different bullet point section than what your classmates have already posted so that we can engage several discussions on relevant topics. If all of the bullet points have been addressed, then you may begin to re-use the bullet points with the expectation that varied responses continue.You are a risk manager in a manufacturing company. One of your key responsibilities is securing of property insurance coverage to provide protection against damage caused by “acts of God,” such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, etc. You begin the process with exposure due diligence, which is focused on estimating the chances of a single “act of God” occurring in the course of the upcoming year, as well as the chances of two or more “acts of God” materializing (also in the course of the next year).Determine where you might be able to find valid data for this type of analysis.Justify the use of the concept of conditional probability in the context of your task—more specifically, discuss how you would use conditional probability in your exposure due diligence efforts. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.You are a marketing manager for a company that makes ready-to-eat breakfast cereals. Your company recently initiated a loyalty program for consumers, which resulted in a large purchaser database. The brand managers are eager to examine the available data, which they can use to design more effective promotional programs. Your first step is to conduct an exploratory baseline analysis, the goal of which is to describe the buyer base and estimate basic statistical descriptors of the buyer base. You are particularly interested in the size of individual purchases, as well as the frequency of repurchases.Evaluate what discrete data distribution the frequency of repurchases data would be likely to follow.Explain why the other discrete data distributions are not appropriate for this data. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.You are a marketing manager for a manufacturer of nonperishable products sold in grocery stores. In this role, you need to make various decisions about how much marketing/advertising support is needed by each product to maximize the profitability of the organization.Assess how the effectiveness of individual marketing/advertising approaches would be determined.Discuss how historical sales data, as well as promotional response data, can aid you in evaluating the effectiveness of the individual marketing/advertising approaches. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.The final paragraph (three or four sentences) of your initial post should summarize the one or two key points that you are making in your initial response.Your posting should be the equivalent of 1 to 2 single-spaced pages (500–1000 words) in length.

Required ResourcesRead/review the following resources for this activity:Textbook: Chapter 8LessonScenario/SummaryYou will complete a Course Project in this course that will span two weeks. The final project is due the Sunday of Week 7. The project is broken into two parts. You will complete Part I in Week 6 and Part II in Week 7. In Week 6, Confidence Intervals will be explored and in Week 7 Hypothesis testing will be explored.A confidence interval is a defined range of values such that there is a specified probability that the value of a parameter lies within the interval.In Part I of this project, you will pick a topic, complete research and provide a write-up that includes calculations. Round all values to two decimal places when appropriate.DeliverablesChoose a Topic where you can gather at least 50 pieces of data.Examples of TopicsThe Golden Gate Warriors Points Per Game in 2016 (use the points scored in the first 50 games).High School Graduation Rates by State (use the graduation rates for all 50 states)Average Tuition Rates in the US (You have to find the tuition rates of 50 college/universities).The prices of a hotel room per night in a major city (You have to find the price of the same night of hotels in one city).Weights of 50 babies at birth.Write at least a 1-Page ReportOpen a Word DocumentIntroduction--Provide a description of your topic and cite where you found your data.Sample Data—Include a 5x10 table including your 50 values in your report. You must provide ALL of your sample data.Problem Computations—For the topic you chose, you must answer the following:Determine the mean and standard deviation of your sample.Find the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals.Make sure to list the margin of error for the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence interval.Create your own confidence interval (you cannot use 80%, 95%, and 99%) and make sure to show your work. Make sure to list the margin of error.Problem Analysis—Write a half-page reflection.What trend do you see takes place to the confidence interval as the confidence level rises? Explain mathematically why that takes place.Provide a sentence for each confidence interval created in part c) which explains what the confidence interval means in context of topic of your project.Explain how Part I of the project has helped you understand confidence intervals better?How did this project help you understand statistics better?Required SoftwareMicrosoft Office: Word and ExcelUse a personal copy or access the software at https://application.chamberlain.edu (Links to an external site.).GradingThis activity will be graded based on the Course Project grading rubric. You can view the rubric below.Course Outcomes (CO): 6Due Date: Course Project Part I By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday of Week 6RubricWeek 6 Project: Part IWeek 6 Project: Part ICriteriaRatingsPtsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Topic & Introduction4.0 ptsProficient Student picks appropriate topic, provides a description of topic and the cites where data was found.3.0 ptsAbove Average Student picks appropriate topic and introduces data. No citation.2.0 ptsAverage. Student does not pick a topic that is appropriate for the project, introduces the data but does not cite source.1.0 ptsNeeds Improvement Students provides topic without descritption and citation.0.0 ptsNo Effort. No topic, descritpion or citation is provided.4.0 ptsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Sample Data4.0 ptsProficient Student provides ALL 50 pieces of data.3.0 ptsAbove Average Student provides 30-49 pieces of data.2.0 ptsAverage Student provides 20 - 29 pieces of data.1.0 ptsNeeds Improvement Student provides 1-19 pieces of data.0.0 ptsNo Effort. No Data was provided.4.0 ptsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Mean & Standard Deviation5.0 ptsProficient Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct with no rounding error. .4.0 ptsAbove Average Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct but with roujnding error.3.0 ptsAverage One Value (either mean or sample standsrd deviation) is correct but the other is not correct.1.0 ptsNeeds Improvement Both the Mean & Sample Standard Deviation are incorrect but it was attempted.0.0 ptsNo Effort. The mean and sample standard deviation5.0 ptsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Constructing the 80%, 95%, 99% Confidence Intervals15.0 ptsProficient Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty making sure to note the margin of error for each.12.0 ptsAbove Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty but is missing margin of errors (or some of the margin of errors are incorrect).10.0 ptsAverage Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but there are some errors in the calculations.6.0 ptsNeeds Improvement Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but all of the values are incorrect. The component was attempted.0.0 ptsNo Effort. No Confidence Intervals are provided.15.0 ptsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Creating a new confidence interval7.0 ptsProficient. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error.5.0 ptsAbove Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error but there is rounding error.4.0 ptsAverage. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly but does not highlight the margin of error.3.0 ptsNeeds Improvement Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) but it was not done correctly.0.0 ptsNo Effort. The student did not create a new confidence interval.7.0 ptsThis criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Problem Analysis10.0 ptsProficient. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for each confidence interval created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. Provides a reflection for Part I of the project.8.0 ptsAbove Average. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides sentences for each confidence interval created explaining what the confience interval means in context of the data collected. Does NOT provide a Reflection.7.0 ptsAverage. Student may or may not address the trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for SOME confidence intervaSl created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. A reflection Part I of the project may or may not be provided.5.0 ptsNeeds Improvement. Majority of the analysis is missing.0.0 ptsNo Effort. No Problem Anaylsis is provided.10.0 ptsTotal Points: 45.0PreviousNext