Future Shock Parts 1 and 2 Future 2 discussion post

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Question Description

To POST:

  • Relate an idea from any of the JOURNAL readings covered so far to a
  • Passage from Part I AND a passage from Part 2 that you select and relate
  • Conclude by making a claim about this relationship between the journal reading and Toffler's ideas.

CITATION:

  • Note the PAGE NUMBERS of sources BY AUTHOR; MLA style is fine.

Both 1984 and Future Shock are divided into notable parts. Neither is in 4 parts. 1984 is in 3 parts, and Future Shock is in 6 parts. You do not need to do the division yourself, since it's there. If you are only working on the texts ONLINE, this will be harder to see. But they are there--scroll through to find the spaces!

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Comments on FUTURE SHOCK C. P. Snow: "Remarkable ... No one ought to have the nerve to pontificate on our present worries without reading it." R. Buckminster Fuller: "Cogent ... brilliant ... I hope vast numbers will read Toffler's book." Betty Friedan: "Brilliant and true ... Should be read by anyone with the responsibility of leading or participating in movements for change in America today." Marshall McLuhan: "FUTURE SHOCK ... is 'where it's at.'" Robert Rimmer, author of The Harrad Experiment: "A magnificent job ... Must reading." John Diebold: "For those who want to understand the social and psychological implications of the technological revolution, this is an incomparable book." WALL STREET JOURNAL: "Explosive ... Brilliantly formulated." LONDON DAILY EXPRESS: "Alvin Toffler has sent something of a shock-wave through Western society." LE FIGARO: "The best study of our times that I know ... Of all the books that I have read in the last 20 years, it is by far the one that has taught me the most." THE TIMES OF INDIA: "To the elite ... who often get committed to age-old institutions or material goals alone, let Toffler's FUTURE SHOCK be a lesson and a warning." MANCHESTER GUARDIAN: "An American book that will ... reshape our thinking even more radically than Galbraith's did in the 1950s ... The book is more than a book, and it will do more than send reviewers raving ... It is a spectacular outcrop of a formidable, organized intellectual effort ... For the first time in history scientists are marrying the insights of artists, poets, dramatists, and novelists to statistical analysis and operational research. The two cultures have met and are being merged. Alvin Toffler is one of the first exhilarating, liberating results." CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR: "Packed with ideas, explanations, constructive suggestions ... Revealing, exciting, encouraging, brilliant." NEWSWEEK: "In the risky business of social and cultural criticism, there appears an occasional book that manages—through some happy combination of accident and insight—to shape our perceptions of its times. One thinks of America in the 1950s, for example, largely in terms of David Riesman's The Lonely Crowd and John Kenneth Galbraith's The Affluent Society, while Michael Harrington's The Other America helped focus the concerns of the early 1960s. And now Alvin Toffler's immensely readable yet disquieting study may serve the same purpose for our own increasingly volatile world: even before reading the book, one is ready to acknowledge the point of the title—that we suffer from 'future shock.'" This low-priced Bantam Book has been completely reset in a type face designed for easy reading, and was printed from new plates. It contains the complete text of the original hard-cover edition. NOT ONE WORD HAS BEEN OMITTED FUTURE SHOCK A Bantam Book / published by arrangement with Random House, Inc. PRINTING HISTORY Portions of this book first appeared, in slightly different form, in HORIZON, REDBOOK, and PLAYBOY Random House edition published July 1970 2nd printing ....August 1970 9th printing ..December 1970 3rd printing ...September 1970 10th printing ..December 1970 4th printing ...September 1970 11th printing ... January 1971 5th printing ...September 1970 12th printing ...February 1971 6th printing ....October 1970 13th printing ...February 1971 7th printing ...November 1970 14th printing ....... April 1971 8th printing ...November 1970 15th printing ....... April 1971 Literary Guild edition published 1970 Psychology Today edition published 1970 Bantam edition published August 1971 2nd printing 3rd printing All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Copyright © 1970 by Alvin Toffler. This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by mimeograph or any other means, without permission. For information address: Random House, Inc., 201 East 50th Street, New York, N.Y. 10022. Published simultaneously in the United States and Canada Bantam Books are published by Bantam Books, Inc., a National General company. Its trade-mark, consisting of the words "Bantam Books" and the portrayal of a bantam, is registered in the United States Patent Office and in other countries. Marca Registrada. Bantam Books, Inc., 666 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10019. PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA For Sam, Rose, Heidi and Karen, My closest links with time ... CONTENTS Introduction 1 PART ONE: THE DEATH OF PERMANENCE 7 Chapter 1.THE 800th LIFETIME The Unprepared Visitor Break with the Past 9 10 12 Chapter 2. THE ACCELERATIVE THRUST Time and Change Subterranean Cities The Technological Engine Knowledge as Fuel The Flow of Situations 19 20 22 25 30 32 Chapter 3. THE PACE OF LIFE People of the Future Durational Expectancy The Concept of Transience 36 37 42 44 PART TWO: TRANSIENCE 49 Chapter 4. THINGS: THE THROW-AWAY SOCIETY The Paper Wedding Gown The Missing Supermarket The Economics of Impermanence The Portable Playground The Modular "Fun Palace" The Rental Revolution Temporary Needs The Fad Machine 51 52 55 56 58 59 63 67 71 Chapter 5. PLACES: THE NEW NOMADS The 3,000,000-Mile Club Flamenco in Sweden Migration to the Future Suicides and Hitch-hikers The Mournful Movers The Homing Instinct The Demise of Geography 74 75 77 80 83 87 89 91 Chapter 6. PEOPLE: THE MODULAR MAN The Cost of Involvement The Duration of Human Relationships 95 96 99 The Hurry-up Welcome Friendships in the Future Monday-to-Friday Friends Recruits and Defectors Rent-a-Person How to Lose Friends How Many Friends? Training Children for Turnover 102 107 108 111 114 116 119 121 Chapter 7. ORGANIZATION: THE COMING AD-HOCRACY Catholics, Cliques and Coffee Breaks The Organizational Upheaval The New Ad-hocracy The Collapse of Hierarchy Beyond Bureaucracy 124 126 128 132 137 142 Chapter 8. INFORMATION: THE KINETIC IMAGE Twiggy and the K-Mesons The Freudian Wave A Blizzard of Best Sellers The Engineered Message Mozart on the Run The Semi-literate Shakespeare 169 Art: Cubists and Kineticists The Neural Investment 152 155 158 161 162 166 PART THREE: NOVELTY 183 Chapter 9. THE SCIENTIFIC TRAJECTORY The New Atlantis Sunlight and Personality The Voice of the Dolphin The Biological Factory The Pre-designed Body The Transient Organ The Cyborgs among Us The Denial of Change 185 188 191 193 194 197 205 209 215 Chapter 10. THE EXPERIENCE MAKERS The Psychic Cake-Mix "Serving Wenches" in the Sky Experiential Industries Simulated Environments Live Environments The Economics of Sanity 219 221 224 226 228 230 234 Chapter 11. THE FRACTURED FAMILY The Mystique of Motherhood The Streamlined Family Bio-Parents and Pro-Parents 238 239 241 243 173 177 Communes and Homosexual Daddies The Odds Against Love Temporary Marriage Marriage Trajectories The Demands of Freedom 245 249 251 253 256 PART FOUR: DIVERSITY 261 Chapter 12. THE ORIGINS OF OVERCHOICE Design-a-Mustang Computers and Classrooms "Drag Queen" Movies 263 264 270 276 Chapter 13. A SURFEIT Of SUBCULTS Scientists and Stockbrokers The Fun Specialists The Youth Ghetto Marital Tribes Hippies, Incorporated Tribal Turnover The Ignoble Savage 284 286 288 290 293 294 296 299 Chapter 14. A DIVERSITY OF LIFE STYLES Motorcyclists and Intellectuals Style-Setters and Mini-Heroes Life-Style Factories The Power of Style A Superabundance of Selves The Free Society 303 305 308 309 312 316 321 PART FIVE: THE LIMITS OF ADAPTABILITY 323 Chapter 15. FUTURE SHOCK: THE PHYSICAL DIMENSION Life Change and Illness Response to Novelty The Adaptive Reaction 325 327 334 337 Chapter 16. FUTURE SHOCK: THE PSYCHOLOGICAL DIMENSION The Overstimulated Individual Bombardment of the Senses Information Overload Decision Stress Victims of Future Shock The Future-shocked Society 343 344 348 350 355 358 365 PART SIX: STRATEGIES FOR SURVIVAL 369 Chapter 17. COPING WITH TOMORROW Direct Coping Personal Stability Zones 371 374 377 Situational Grouping Crisis Counseling Half-way Houses Enclaves of the Past Enclaves of the Future Global Space Pageants 383 385 388 390 392 393 Chapter 18. EDUCATION IN THE FUTURE TENSE The Industrial Era School The New Educational Revolution The Organizational Attack Yesterday's Curriculum Today A Diversity of Data A System of Skills The Strategy of Futureness 398 399 402 405 409 411 413 418 Chapter 19. TAMING TECHNOLOGY Technological Backlash Selecting Cultural Styles Transistors and Sex A Technology Ombudsman The Environmental Screen 428 430 432 437 440 443 Chapter 20. THE STRATEGY OF SOCIAL FUTURISM The Death of Technocracy The Humanization of the Planner Time Horizons Anticipatory Democracy 446 447 452 458 470 Acknowledgments Notes Bibliography Index 488 490 522 541 INTRODUCTION This is a book about what happens to people when they are overwhelmed by change. It is about the ways in which we adapt—or fail to adapt—to the future. Much has been written about the future. Yet, for the most part, books about the world to come sound a harsh metallic note. These pages, by contrast, concern themselves with the "soft" or human side of tomorrow. Moreover, they concern themselves with the steps by which we are likely to reach tomorrow. They deal with common, everyday matters—the products we buy and discard, the places we leave behind, the corporations we inhabit, the people who pass at an ever faster clip through our lives. The future of friendship and family life is probed. Strange new subcultures and life styles are investigated, along with an array of other subjects from politics and playgrounds to skydiving and sex. What joins all these—in the book as in life—is the roaring current of change, a current so powerful today that it overturns institutions, shifts our values and shrivels our roots. Change is the process by which the future invades our lives, and it is important to look at it closely, not merely from the grand perspectives of history, but also from the vantage point of the living, breathing individuals who experience it. The acceleration of change in our time is, itself, an elemental force. This accelerative thrust has personal and psychological, as well as sociological, consequences. In the pages ahead, these effects of acceleration are, for the first time, systematically explored. The book argues forcefully, I hope, that, unless man quickly learns to control the rate of change in his personal affairs as well as in society at large, we are doomed to a massive adaptational breakdown. In 1965, in an article in Horizon, I coined the term "future shock" to describe the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time. Fascinated by this concept, I spent the next five years visiting scores of universities, research centers, laboratories, and government agencies, reading countless articles and scientific papers and interviewing literally hundreds of experts on different aspects of change, coping behavior, and the future. Nobel prizewinners, hippies, psychiatrists, physicians, businessmen, professional futurists, philosophers, and educators gave voice to their concern over change, their anxieties about adaptation, their fears about the future. I came away from this experience with two disturbing convictions. First, it became clear that future shock is no longer a distantly potential danger, but a real sickness from which increasingly large numbers already suffer. This psycho-biological condition can be described in medical and psychiatric terms. It is the disease of change. Second, I gradually came to be appalled by how little is actually known about adaptivity, either by those who call for and create vast changes in our society, or by those who supposedly prepare us to cope with those changes. Earnest intellectuals talk bravely about "educating for change" or "preparing people for the future." But we know virtually nothing about how to do it. In the most rapidly changing environment to which man has ever been exposed, we remain pitifully ignorant of how the human animal copes. Our psychologists and politicians alike are puzzled by the seemingly irrational resistance to change exhibited by certain individuals and groups. The corporation head who wants to reorganize a department, the educator who wants to introduce a new teaching method, the mayor who wants to achieve peaceful integration of the races in his city—all, at one time or another, face this blind resistance. Yet we know little about its sources. By the same token, why do some men hunger, even rage for change, doing all in their power to create it, while others flee from it? I not only found no ready answers to such questions, but discovered that we lack even an adequate theory of adaptation, without which it is extremely unlikely that we will ever find the answers. The purpose of this book, therefore, is to help us come to terms with the future—to help us cope more effectively with both personal and social change by deepening our understanding of how men respond to it. Toward this end, it puts forward a broad new theory of adaptation. It also calls attention to an important, though often overlooked, distinction. Almost invariably, research into the effects of change concentrate on the destinations toward which change carries us, rather than the speed of the journey. In this book, I try to show that the rate of change has implications quite apart from, and sometimes more important than, the directions of change. No attempt to understand adaptivity can succeed until this fact is grasped. Any attempt to define the "content" of change must include the consequences of pace itself as part of that content. William Ogburn, with his celebrated theory of cultural lag, pointed out how social stresses arise out of the uneven rates of change in different sectors of society. The concept of future shock—and the theory of adaptation that derives from it—strongly suggests that there must be balance, not merely between rates of change in different sectors, but between the pace of environmental change and the limited pace of human response. For future shock grows out of the increasing lag between the two. The book is intended to do more than present a theory, however. It is also intended to demonstrate a method. Previously, men studied the past to shed light on the present. I have turned the time-mirror around, convinced that a coherent image of the future can also shower us with valuable insights into today. We shall find it increasingly difficult to understand our personal and public problems without making use of the future as an intellectual tool. In the pages ahead, I deliberately exploit this tool to show what it can do. Finally, and by no means least important, the book sets out to change the reader in a subtle yet significant sense. For reasons that will become clear in the pages that follow, successful coping with rapid change will require most of us to adopt a new stance toward the future, a new sensitive awareness of the role it plays in the present. This book is designed to increase the future-consciousness of its reader. The degree to which the reader, after finishing the book, finds himself thinking about, speculating about, or trying to anticipate future events, will provide one measure of its effectiveness. With these ends stated, several reservations are in order. One has to do with the perishability of fact. Every seasoned reporter has had the experience of working on a fastbreaking story that changes its shape and meaning even before his words are put down on paper. Today the whole world is a fast-breaking story. It is inevitable, therefore, in a book written over the course of several years, that some of its facts will have been superseded between the time of research and writing and the time of publication. Professors identified with University A move, in the interim, to University B. Politicians identified with Position X shift, in the meantime, to Position Y. While a conscientious effort has been made during writing to update Future Shock, some of the facts presented are no doubt already obsolete. (This, of course, is true of many books, although authors don't like to talk about it.) The obsolescence of data has a special significance here, however, serving as it does to verify the book's own thesis about the rapidity of change. Writers have a harder and harder time keeping up with reality. We have not yet learned to conceive, research, write and publish in "real time." Readers, therefore, must concern themselves more and more with general theme, rather than detail. Another reservation has to do with the verb "will." No serious futurist deals in "predictions." These are left for television oracles and newspaper astrologers. No one even faintly familiar with the complexities of forecasting lays claim to absolute knowledge of tomorrow. In those deliciously ironic words purported to be a Chinese proverb: "To prophesy is extremely difficult—especially with respect to the future." This means that every statement about the future ought, by rights, be accompanied by a string of qualifiers—ifs, ands, buts, and on the other hands. Yet to enter every appropriate qualification in a book of this kind would be to bury the reader under an avalanche of maybes. Rather than do this, I have taken the liberty of speaking firmly, without hesitation, trusting that the intelligent reader will understand the stylistic problem. The word "will" should always be read as though it were preceded by "probably" or "in my opinion." Similarly, all dates applied to future events need to be taken with a grain of judgment. The inability to speak with precision and certainty about the future, however, is no excuse for silence. Where "hard data" are available, of course, they ought to be taken into account. But where they are lacking, the responsible writer—even the scientist—has both a right and an obligation to rely on other kinds of evidence, including impressionistic or anecdotal data and the opinions of well-informed people. I have done so throughout and offer no apology for it. In dealing with the future, at least for the purpose at hand, it is more important to be imaginative and insightful than to be one hundred percent "right." Theories do not have to be "right" to be enormously useful. Even error has its uses. The maps of the world drawn by the medieval cartographers were so hopelessly inaccurate, so filled with factual error, that they elicit condescending smiles today when almost the entire surface of the earth has been charted. Yet the great explorers could never have discovered the New World without them. Nor could the better, more accurate maps of today been drawn until men, working with the limited evidence available to them, set down on paper their bold conceptions of worlds they had never seen. We who explore the future are like those ancient mapmakers, and it is in this spirit that the concept of future shock and the theory of the adaptive range are presented here—not as final word, but as a first approximation of the new realities, filled with danger and promise, created by the accelerative thrust. Part One: THE DEATH OF PERMANENCE Chapter 1 THE 800TH LIFETIME In the three short decades between now and the twenty-first century, millions of ordinary, psychologically normal people will face an abrupt collision with the future. Citizens of the world's richest and most technologically advanced nations, many of them will find it increasingly painful to keep up with the incessant demand for change that characterizes our time. For them, the future will have arrived too soon. This book is about change and how we adapt to it. It is about those who seem to thrive on change, who crest its waves joyfully, as well as those multitudes of others who resist it or seek flight from it. It is about our capacity to adapt. It is about the future ...
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mwalimumusah
School: University of Maryland

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Future Shock Parts 1 and 2: Discussion Post
Traditionally, people have been divided by religion, nation, gender, ethnic groups, and race
among other groupings. However, Alvin Toffler, in his book “Future Shock,” believes that
another dimension that can be used to divide people is time. There are still people living in the
past, others in the present, and a few in the future. Those living in the future have more access to
technologies and industrial advancements that the rest will be enjoying in their tomorrow. The
present discussion relates Toffler’s concept of “Future Shock” to the idea of futuristic robots as
explored by Güttler et al. in the article "Towards a future robotic home environment: a survey."
The idea of futurism and modularity will be linked to arguments drawn from the eleventh
paragraph of ...

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