# Forecasting Exercise

Apr 23rd, 2015
FratBro23
Category:
Management
Price: \$20 USD

Question description

You are the supply chain manager for an electronics-manufacturing company. In this assignment, you will use the following data to obtain forecasts for your company through various forecasting techniques.

 Quarter Forecast Actual Demand Error 4Q 2008 200 220 1Q 2009 220 215 2Q 2009 215 210 3Q 2009 210 220 4Q 2009 220 225 1Q 2010 225 240 2Q 2010 240 255 3Q 2010 260 4Q 2010 270 1Q 2011

Consolidate the results of the following problems in a 2- to 3-page report in a Microsoft Word document. Do not use Microsoft Excel utilities for this assignment.

• Using the three quarters moving average, find out the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011.
• Compute the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6.
• Compute the forecasts for all quarters of 2010 using the three quarter weighted moving average, with the most recent data weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at 0.35, and the third-most recent data weighted at 0.15.
• Using the data provided in the above table, explain what forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009.
• Computed the forecasting error using the exponential smoothing technique.
• Computed the forecasting error using the weighted moving average method.
• On the basis of your calculations, explain which technique provides the most accurate forecast for your company. Explain your answer with critical reasoning.

Using the APA format, cite the sources you use on a separate page.

Save your document as SU_MBA6012_W2_A2_LastName_FirstInitial.doc.

Submit it to the W2: Assignment 2 Dropbox by Week 2, Day 4.

 Assignment 2 Grading Criteria Maximum Points Computed the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using the three quarter moving average. 2 Computed the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6. 2 Computed the forecasts for all quarters of 2010 using the three quarter weighted moving average, with the most recent data weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at 0.35, and the third-most recent data weighted at 0.15. 6 Correctly identified what forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009. 2 Computed forecasting errors using the exponential smoothing technique and the weighted moving average method. 8 Analyzed which technique provides the most accurate forecast for your company and justified your response with appropriate reasoning. 10 Presented a structured document free of spelling and grammatical errors. 5 Properly cited the sources using the APA format. 5 Total: 40

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Apr 23rd, 2015
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