Forecasting Exercise

Apr 23rd, 2015
Anonymous
Category:
Business
Price: $20 USD

Question description

You are the supply chain manager for an electronics-manufacturing company. In this assignment, you will use the following data to obtain forecasts for your company through various forecasting techniques.

Quarter

Forecast

Actual Demand

Error

4Q 2008

200

220

1Q 2009

220

215

2Q 2009

215

210

3Q 2009

210

220

4Q 2009

220

225

1Q 2010

225

240

2Q 2010

240

255

3Q 2010

260

4Q 2010

270

1Q 2011

Consolidate the results of the following problems in a 2- to 3-page report in a Microsoft Word document. Do not use Microsoft Excel utilities for this assignment.

  • Using the three quarters moving average, find out the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011.
  • Compute the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6.
  • Compute the forecasts for all quarters of 2010 using the three quarter weighted moving average, with the most recent data weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at 0.35, and the third-most recent data weighted at 0.15.
  • Using the data provided in the above table, explain what forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009.
  • Computed the forecasting error using the exponential smoothing technique.
  • Computed the forecasting error using the weighted moving average method.
  • On the basis of your calculations, explain which technique provides the most accurate forecast for your company. Explain your answer with critical reasoning.

Using the APA format, cite the sources you use on a separate page.

Save your document as SU_MBA6012_W2_A2_LastName_FirstInitial.doc.

Submit it to the W2: Assignment 2 Dropbox by Week 2, Day 4.

Assignment 2 Grading Criteria

Maximum Points

Computed the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using the three quarter moving average.

2

Computed the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6.

2

Computed the forecasts for all quarters of 2010 using the three quarter weighted moving average, with the most recent data weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at 0.35, and the third-most recent data weighted at 0.15.

6

Correctly identified what forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009.

2

Computed forecasting errors using the exponential smoothing technique and the weighted moving average method.

8

Analyzed which technique provides the most accurate forecast for your company and justified your response with appropriate reasoning.

10

Presented a structured document free of spelling and grammatical errors.

5

Properly cited the sources using the APA format.

5

Total:

40


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